The ECB delivered a surprise 50 bp hike, its first in 11 years and ending the era of negative rates. It unveiled a much-debated tool to contain debt-market jitters, called the Transmission Protection Instrument. More details will come later. Traders are now betting on 60 bps of increases in September. The euro rose and yields gained. Christine Lagarde speaks at 8:45 a.m. ET.

함의: 유럽 중앙은행은 11년만의 마이너스 금리 시대를 끝내며 50bp를 인상했으며, 투자자들의 포지션은 9월 50bp 이상을 인상할 것으로 나타나고 있음.

It's a big day for the euro as the ECB raises rates for the first time in more than a decade. Along with many of its G-10 peers, the currency has staged a strong rebound, leading some to ask whether the dollar has peaked. It's not the first time that discussion has made the rounds this year as the pullbacks in May and June after fresh cycle highs sparked similar comments. As things stand, there isn't really much evidence the dollar is past its apogee and the only way forward leads downhill.

함의: 유럽 중앙은행의 금리인상으로 달러 대비 주요 통화가 강세를 보이며, 달러가 정점을 지났는가에 대한 의견이 있으나 그런 판단을 할 증거는 불충분함.

Factor Quants Ride Out the Stock Crash in Biggest Win Since 2013. After cratering in the bull market era, a once-hot systematic trade is mounting its biggest comeback in nearly a decade. Factor investors -- who dissect shares based on quantifiable characteristics like the degree to which a company appears cheap or profitable -- are shorting some of the biggest losers in this year’s crushing selloff, while broad market conditions are proving more conducive to this breed of active trader. The systematic style has posted its best performance for two consecutive quarters since 2013 in a Bloomberg GSAM index that replicates a strategy with both long and short positions. Popular trades betting on value, quality, size, momentum and low volatility have all made money this year through end-June for the first time since 2006, per market-neutral indexes tracked by S&P Dow Jones Indices. Factor investing has a long way to go to win back fans after underperforming in recent years and notching billions of dollars in outflows. But something in 2022 is working. 

함의: 떠나버린 투자자들을 돌리기엔 역부족이지만, 멀티 팩터 시스템 투자가 2개 분기 연속 훌륭한 성과를 내며 귀환함.

First the Fed guided the market very specifically to a 50-bp hike and then delivered 75. Now, the ECB, after guiding to 25 bps, has delivered 50. And in both cases, they only avoided surprising the market via leaks to the press. This is not how forward guidance is supposed to work. Forward guidance is effectively over. The result will be more front-running of rate policy and a loss of control of longer-term yields. Even before the first rate hike it was clear that once you lift off zero, the forward guidance game was over. Like the Fed, the ECB will have to demonstrate through actual hikes, not forward guidance, that it is determined to deal with inflation.

함의: 포워드 가이던스가 더는 작동하지 않고 무용하다 봐야 하며, 때문에 시중금리 레벨 및 정책금리 시기의 통제력을 상실했고, 이제 중앙은행은 말이 아닌 실행으로 인플레이션을 억제해야 하는 상황임.

AT&T Inc. fell the most in 20 years after saying some customers are starting to put off paying their phone bills, which contributed to the wireless carrier cutting its forecast for free cash flow this year by $2 billion. The emerging economic strain on consumers is adding to pressure the company had already been facing from deep discounts on new phones and higher spending on network equipment. AT&T shares fell as much as 11%, their biggest slide since 2002. The rout erased the stock’s gain for the year and sent phone company peers Verizon Communications Inc. and T-Mobile US Inc. lower.

함의: 가계 재정 상태가 심각하게 위축되며 통신비조차 지불불능, 동사는 20년래 일간 최대 낙폭을 기록함.

"Procrastination makes easy things hard, hard things harder."

- Mason Cooley

Earnings misses from tech to banking are hurting stocks in post-market trading. That may rattle traders into Friday morning. In addition to Snap’s plunge, Intuitive Surgical is sinking after a rare revenue miss and Seagate -- which cited cited macro-related challenges and plans to trim production -- is falling and taking other tech firms with it. Among the financials, Capital One, which offers credit cards and online banking, and SVB Financial, which is uniquely exposed to Silicon Valley, are also down.

함의: 기술주에서 금융주까지 전망치를 하회하는 실적이 누적되고 있음.

Battered in the June selloff that sent American equities into a bear market, chipmaker stocks are staging a stunning rebound this month. Bolstered by evidence that supply-chain issues are easing and demand is growing, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index has surged 19% since July 1 handily outpacing the broader market rebound after the group’s valuation sank to the lowest level in three years. It continued its run Thursday, gaining 1.5%. Earlier this month, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. announced better-than-expected quarterly results, while Samsung Electronics Co. reported a 21% jump in revenue. On Wednesday, data for mobile phone shipments from China showed a jump of 9.2% in June, with overseas vendors like Apple Inc. leading demand. Meanwhile, the US Senate is advancing a $52 billion bill that would provide subsidies for the semiconductor industry.

함의: 3년래 최저치로 하락했던 필라델피아 반도체 지수가 i) TSMC 및 삼성전자 실적 및 전망, ii) 애플 주도의 중국 휴대폰 출하량, iii) 미국 상원의 반도체 보조법에 힘입어 7월 +19% 상승함.

The three different monetary tightening episodes exhibited quite different styles of equity market behaviour. There is no consistent data set running right back to 1980 which would allow comprehensive analysis, but there is enough to draw some quite interesting conclusions. If you really think the Fed is likely to tighten in a manner which will create a US recession in order to bring down inflation, there is potentially a lot more EM equity market downside. If by contrast you think it’s more like 1994, or even to some extent 2013, a lot is now in the price and there is clear scope for a meaningful rally. The opportunities may be greatest in recently downtrodden commodity market segments, although mainland China could share in this, with prospects for reflation improving.

보고서: 중앙은행이 인플레이션을 억제하기 위해 경기침체까지도 용인할 것으로 본다면 신흥국은 추가 하락, 그게 아니라면 이미 많은 부분이 가격에 반영되었다고 봐야 함. ( HSBC - US inflation, a little bit of EM history)

Global funds continue to capitulate from their fight against the Bank of Japan. Non-resident investors bought a net 1.75t yen of Japanese bonds last week, including JGBs and other debt, bringing total purchases for this month to 3.82t yen. It nearly offsets 4.15t yen worth of foreign selling in June. With BOJ Governor Kuroda’s persistently dovish stance, the central bank’s yield curve control continues to fortify the JGB market even amid rising inflationary pressures globally.

함의: 중앙은행에 맞서지 말라.

A dip in the dollar in recent days that suggested less fear in markets has helped to put global stocks on course for their best week in a month, paring this year’s equity market rout to about 18%. But angst about the looming damage from high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates is proving hard to shake despite a tempering in expectations of just how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be.
“I would point out that we have a lot of earnings to come next week, we have the Fed meeting next week,” Susquehanna International Group derivatives strategist Chris Murphy said on Bloomberg Television. “I don’t necessarily think we’re totally out of the woods yet.”

함의: 달러 약세로 주식시장이 훌륭한 성과를 내고 있으나, 다음 주 많은 기업의 실적발표와 중앙은행의 결정이 기다리고 있어 안심하긴 이르다고 함.

Traders Are Too Confident the Fed Will Blink Soon. Stocks and bonds have rallied in tandem since the Fed's last hike on the belief that policy makers will capitulate on interest-rate increases as the risk of a recession rises. Traders may be in for a nasty surprise.

함의: 과연...?

After underestimating the worst inflation outbreak in decades, central banks are now driving their economies headlong toward recession in order to tame prices. For now, central banks across many advanced and emerging economies have little option but to keep on hiking in the face of inflation that has yet to peak. Bloomberg Economics sees global inflation edging up from 9% year-on-year in the second quarter to 9.3% in the third quarter before slipping back to a still uncomfortable 8.5% by year end. The speed of tightening is making a soft landing harder to achieve. Citigroup Inc. economists put the chances of a global recession at 50% while Bank of America Corp. economists forecast a “mild recession this year” in the US as conditions have deteriorated much more rapidly than they expected. 

함의: 인플레이션을 과소평가 한 결과로 침체 우려에도 불구 금리인상을 할 수 밖에 없는 상황에 놓여있고, 예상보다 빠른 침체가 올 수 있다고 전망함.