Battered in the June selloff that sent American equities into a bear market, chipmaker stocks are staging a stunning rebound this month. Bolstered by evidence that supply-chain issues are easing and demand is growing, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index has surged 19% since July 1 handily outpacing the broader market rebound after the group’s valuation sank to the lowest level in three years. It continued its run Thursday, gaining 1.5%. Earlier this month, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. announced better-than-expected quarterly results, while Samsung Electronics Co. reported a 21% jump in revenue. On Wednesday, data for mobile phone shipments from China showed a jump of 9.2% in June, with overseas vendors like Apple Inc. leading demand. Meanwhile, the US Senate is advancing a $52 billion bill that would provide subsidies for the semiconductor industry.

함의: 3년래 최저치로 하락했던 필라델피아 반도체 지수가 i) TSMC 및 삼성전자 실적 및 전망, ii) 애플 주도의 중국 휴대폰 출하량, iii) 미국 상원의 반도체 보조법에 힘입어 7월 +19% 상승함.

The three different monetary tightening episodes exhibited quite different styles of equity market behaviour. There is no consistent data set running right back to 1980 which would allow comprehensive analysis, but there is enough to draw some quite interesting conclusions. If you really think the Fed is likely to tighten in a manner which will create a US recession in order to bring down inflation, there is potentially a lot more EM equity market downside. If by contrast you think it’s more like 1994, or even to some extent 2013, a lot is now in the price and there is clear scope for a meaningful rally. The opportunities may be greatest in recently downtrodden commodity market segments, although mainland China could share in this, with prospects for reflation improving.

보고서: 중앙은행이 인플레이션을 억제하기 위해 경기침체까지도 용인할 것으로 본다면 신흥국은 추가 하락, 그게 아니라면 이미 많은 부분이 가격에 반영되었다고 봐야 함. ( HSBC - US inflation, a little bit of EM history)

Global funds continue to capitulate from their fight against the Bank of Japan. Non-resident investors bought a net 1.75t yen of Japanese bonds last week, including JGBs and other debt, bringing total purchases for this month to 3.82t yen. It nearly offsets 4.15t yen worth of foreign selling in June. With BOJ Governor Kuroda’s persistently dovish stance, the central bank’s yield curve control continues to fortify the JGB market even amid rising inflationary pressures globally.

함의: 중앙은행에 맞서지 말라.

A dip in the dollar in recent days that suggested less fear in markets has helped to put global stocks on course for their best week in a month, paring this year’s equity market rout to about 18%. But angst about the looming damage from high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates is proving hard to shake despite a tempering in expectations of just how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be.
“I would point out that we have a lot of earnings to come next week, we have the Fed meeting next week,” Susquehanna International Group derivatives strategist Chris Murphy said on Bloomberg Television. “I don’t necessarily think we’re totally out of the woods yet.”

함의: 달러 약세로 주식시장이 훌륭한 성과를 내고 있으나, 다음 주 많은 기업의 실적발표와 중앙은행의 결정이 기다리고 있어 안심하긴 이르다고 함.

Traders Are Too Confident the Fed Will Blink Soon. Stocks and bonds have rallied in tandem since the Fed's last hike on the belief that policy makers will capitulate on interest-rate increases as the risk of a recession rises. Traders may be in for a nasty surprise.

함의: 과연...?

After underestimating the worst inflation outbreak in decades, central banks are now driving their economies headlong toward recession in order to tame prices. For now, central banks across many advanced and emerging economies have little option but to keep on hiking in the face of inflation that has yet to peak. Bloomberg Economics sees global inflation edging up from 9% year-on-year in the second quarter to 9.3% in the third quarter before slipping back to a still uncomfortable 8.5% by year end. The speed of tightening is making a soft landing harder to achieve. Citigroup Inc. economists put the chances of a global recession at 50% while Bank of America Corp. economists forecast a “mild recession this year” in the US as conditions have deteriorated much more rapidly than they expected. 

함의: 인플레이션을 과소평가 한 결과로 침체 우려에도 불구 금리인상을 할 수 밖에 없는 상황에 놓여있고, 예상보다 빠른 침체가 올 수 있다고 전망함.

Private-sector activity in the euro area unexpectedly shrank for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns of early 2021 as record inflation curbed demand across the economy -- adding to fears that a recession is on the horizon. A survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global dropped to a 17-month low in July, dipping beneath the level that signals contraction. The downturn was driven by worsening output among manufacturers and a near-stalling of service-sector growth. Economists had expected a mild expansion.

함의: 완만한 확장세를 보일 것으로 예상했던 것과 달리 유로존 경기는 17개월래 최저치로 수축됨.

Earnings misses continue to roll in, rattling traders. Tumbling social media companies are blaming macroeconomic conditions for surprisingly poor results, pressuring tech giants who’ve yet to report, like Alphabet and Meta. Twitter and Snap -- which is plunging ~30% ahead of the bell -- both cited slowing advertiser spending, pegging the disappointment to broad economic worries. Twitter, of course, also mentioned the battle over Elon Musk’s deal. Notable misses after the bell came from S&P 500 members Intuitive Surgical, Seagate -- which cited cited macro-related challenges and plans to trim production, and which is weighing on other tech stocks -- and bank SVB Financial, which is uniquely exposed to Silicon Valley. All three are down ~10%.

함의: 예상치를 하회하는 실적이 연속되며 아직 실적을 발표하지 않은 대형 기술주에 불안을 갖게 할 뿐 아니라, 열악해지는 거시경제 환경을 원인으로 지목하는 경우가 많음.

Stocks and bonds have rallied together as traders bet policy makers will capitulate on interest-rate increases as the risk of a recession rises. It’s premature for that conviction as the fight against inflation is far from over and will keep the Fed going unless there is real distress in the economy, which we’re not seeing yet. A 75-bps hike is still a done deal next week, fed funds futures show, but the FOMC will stop in February 2023 after taking rates to just under 3.5%, they suggest. The risk of a recession will then lead to a cut in March, or so pricing says.

함의: 경기침체에 중앙은행이 굴복할 것으로 베팅하며 주식, 채권이 랠리를 하고 있음.

US business activity contracted in July for the first time in more than two years as manufacturers and service providers signaled sluggish demand that only adds to heightened recession anxieties. The S&P Global flash composite purchasing managers output index slid 4.8 points to 47.5, the weakest reading since May 2020, the group reported Friday. Outside of the early months of the pandemic, the July figure is the weakest in data back to 2009. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The new orders gauge expanded modestly after contracting the previous month.

함의: 유럽과 마찬가지, 미국도 수축국면에 진입함.

Treasuries rallied sharply after data showing a contraction in US business activity for the first time since 2020 heightened fears the economy will plunge into a recession. The slide in bond yields gathered pace on Friday, with the weak economic reading spurring bets the Federal Reserve will reduce the size of rate hikes to half a point in September after an all-but-certain 75-basis-point increase in July. The 10-year yield sank below 2.8. “There is no denying that the economy is decelerating,” said Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities. “If it continues, there is a prospect that the Fed pulls back its pace of tightening once it goes 75 next week.”

함의: 지난 밤 채권의 급격한 상승은 2020년 이후 첫 위축에 접어든 미국 경제활동 데이터를 통해 7월 75bp 인상 후 9월은 50bp 인상으로 속도를 늦출 것이라는데 대한 베팅이었음.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that Washington is forgoing a key tool in helping the Federal Reserve quell inflation, and urged that lawmakers look at raising taxes. “Fiscal policy makes a big difference,” Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. “Just the right thing to do is to raise taxes right now to take some of the demand out of the economy." Summers said that any tax hikes shouldn’t go toward funding fresh outlays -- in contrast to the package of tax hikes and expanded social investment that President Joe Biden has sought from Congress for more than a year now.

함의: 전 재무장관은 증세를 통한 수요억제로 인플레이션을 통제할 수 있음에도 정부가 사용하지 않고 있음을 지적함.

We estimate that dollar appreciation since mid-2021 has reduced the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges -- the headline and core PCE deflator -- by just 0.1 ppt (on a year-on-year basis) so far. The peak effect, of close to 0.2 ppt, will arrive early next year. The Fed will likely welcome any inflation relief they can get, but with headline PCE inflation likely ending the year at 5.9%, that amount of disinflation is a drop in the bucket. On growth, using the Fed’s trade model we estimate the deterioration in the trade balance from dollar appreciation will knock 0.7 ppt off GDP growth this year. Those numbers likely underestimate the total hit, as rapid dollar appreciation in the past has usually led to a tightening in global financial conditions that significantly slows growth and further drags on demand for US exports.

함의: 달러 강세를 촉발시킨 통화정책, 이를 통한 인플레이션 하락은 최대 -0.2ppt지만, 달러 강세로 인한 무역 열위 등에 의한 성장률 하락은 -0.7ppt임.