Apple's Product Launch Event, key takeaways.

Traders See Fed in ‘Wait-and-See’ Mode After CPI.

Arm priced its IPO at $51 a share, the top end of the marketed range, raising $4.87 billion and valuing itself at about $54.5 billion. The company had marketed 95.5 million shares for $47 to $51 each.

The stock is set to start trading on the Nasdaq on Thursday.

Prices paid to US producers increased in August by the most in more than a year, boosted by rising energy and transportation costs.

US Treasury bonds due May 2050 briefly sank below the 50-cent level for the second time in the past two months. The move underscores investor pain from Fed tightening after piling into rock-bottom interest rates during the pandemic.

Britain’s inflation rate fell unexpectedly despite a surge in fuel prices, easing pressure for further interest-rate increases from the Bank of England.

Essentially, there are an equal number of officials expecting 2024 rates of 4.875% to 5.125%. Compared with the current level of 5.625%, that implies 50-75 bps of cuts. Going into the meeting, the market was looking for about 85 bps of cuts. So we see some rate cut expectations trimming just a bit.

It is worth noting that rates are going to be higher for longer because...the Fed sees inflation remaining higher for longer. Officials project inflation will fall below 3% next year and see it returning to its 2% target in 2026.

• Key: 금리인하 폭이 시장 예상보다 덜하며, 물가 목표치 도달도 2026년에나 가능할 것으로 전망했음.

There are a lot of new numbers today, but the forecast for a lower unemployment rate than previously expected is a standout. The Fed is saying that, even as rates stay punishingly high, unemployment will now top out at 4.1% instead of 4.5%.

That seems like a very bullish call.

Powell:

“We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation.”
: 통화정책회의에서 금리결정은 온전히 향후 얻게 되는 경제지표에 의할 것이라는 기존 입장을 유지함.

“We’re prepared to raise rates further if appropriate.”
: 그렇기 때문에, 필요할 경우 추가적인 금리인상도 가능하다고 밝힘.

“I do think it’s possible.”
: 경제가 연착륙 가능할 것 같냐는 질문에 그렇게 본다고 답함.

“The time will come at some point, and I’m not saying when, that it’s appropriate to cut.”
: 언젠가 금리를 인하할 때가 오겠지만, 언제가 될진 알 수 없다고 함.

“That’s what we have been trying to achieve. But the worse thing to do is to fail to restore price stability."
: 경제를 연착륙 시키는 일도 중요하지만, 물가를 안정 시키지 못하면 그것이 더 큰일이라고 함.

Stocks briefly hit their session lows as of 3:09 p.m. in New York.

Policy in the so-called ‘last mile’ for inflation.

파월의 기자회견에서는 과거 어느 때보다 무언가를 결정하기에 복잡한 영역에 있다는 것을 알게 해줌. 물가상승률이 둔화되고 있다 하더라도 정책적으로는 마지막 고비에 와 있기 때문임. 통화정책을 통해 물가를 조정하는 방법으로 볼 때, 지금 시점이야말로 가능성이 희박한 경제의 연착륙과 경기침체 사이의 기로에 있기 때문임. 시장 참여자들에게 파월이 계속적으로 신중한 발언을 이어가는 이유가 여기에 있음.

Powell:

“People hate inflation. Hate it.”

그치, 그대도 그 사람 중 한명이지.