Traders See Fed in ‘Wait-and-See’ Mode After CPI.

Arm priced its IPO at $51 a share, the top end of the marketed range, raising $4.87 billion and valuing itself at about $54.5 billion. The company had marketed 95.5 million shares for $47 to $51 each.

The stock is set to start trading on the Nasdaq on Thursday.

Prices paid to US producers increased in August by the most in more than a year, boosted by rising energy and transportation costs.

US Treasury bonds due May 2050 briefly sank below the 50-cent level for the second time in the past two months. The move underscores investor pain from Fed tightening after piling into rock-bottom interest rates during the pandemic.

Britain’s inflation rate fell unexpectedly despite a surge in fuel prices, easing pressure for further interest-rate increases from the Bank of England.

Essentially, there are an equal number of officials expecting 2024 rates of 4.875% to 5.125%. Compared with the current level of 5.625%, that implies 50-75 bps of cuts. Going into the meeting, the market was looking for about 85 bps of cuts. So we see some rate cut expectations trimming just a bit.

It is worth noting that rates are going to be higher for longer because...the Fed sees inflation remaining higher for longer. Officials project inflation will fall below 3% next year and see it returning to its 2% target in 2026.

• Key: 금리인하 폭이 시장 예상보다 덜하며, 물가 목표치 도달도 2026년에나 가능할 것으로 전망했음.

There are a lot of new numbers today, but the forecast for a lower unemployment rate than previously expected is a standout. The Fed is saying that, even as rates stay punishingly high, unemployment will now top out at 4.1% instead of 4.5%.

That seems like a very bullish call.

Powell:

“We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation.”
: 통화정책회의에서 금리결정은 온전히 향후 얻게 되는 경제지표에 의할 것이라는 기존 입장을 유지함.

“We’re prepared to raise rates further if appropriate.”
: 그렇기 때문에, 필요할 경우 추가적인 금리인상도 가능하다고 밝힘.

“I do think it’s possible.”
: 경제가 연착륙 가능할 것 같냐는 질문에 그렇게 본다고 답함.

“The time will come at some point, and I’m not saying when, that it’s appropriate to cut.”
: 언젠가 금리를 인하할 때가 오겠지만, 언제가 될진 알 수 없다고 함.

“That’s what we have been trying to achieve. But the worse thing to do is to fail to restore price stability."
: 경제를 연착륙 시키는 일도 중요하지만, 물가를 안정 시키지 못하면 그것이 더 큰일이라고 함.

Stocks briefly hit their session lows as of 3:09 p.m. in New York.

Policy in the so-called ‘last mile’ for inflation.

파월의 기자회견에서는 과거 어느 때보다 무언가를 결정하기에 복잡한 영역에 있다는 것을 알게 해줌. 물가상승률이 둔화되고 있다 하더라도 정책적으로는 마지막 고비에 와 있기 때문임. 통화정책을 통해 물가를 조정하는 방법으로 볼 때, 지금 시점이야말로 가능성이 희박한 경제의 연착륙과 경기침체 사이의 기로에 있기 때문임. 시장 참여자들에게 파월이 계속적으로 신중한 발언을 이어가는 이유가 여기에 있음.

Powell:

“People hate inflation. Hate it.”

그치, 그대도 그 사람 중 한명이지.

The markets have steadily pared rate cut expectations for next year.

“Although Fed Sentiment was a hair less dovish, the overall sentiment score remained near neutral. We think short end rates risk rising given the Fed’s willingness to maintain rates near the peak. The Fed is not near dovish.”