The Fed must hike to 4-5% by next year, Bill Ackman said, which hopefully will be enough to snuff inflation. The mild and transitory price growth being priced by the market as of Friday is a fiction, he tweeted. Rates are going up a lot soon. The sooner the Fed quells inflation, the better for longer-term bonds and long-term financial assets like equities. That will save the economy in the longer term at the expense of short-term pain.

함의: 시간을 끌지않고 단기에 큰 폭으로 금리를 올려야 장기적으로 자산시장에 도움이 된다고 주장함.

At Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management, staffers publicly professed their allegiance to “God, Hwang and Archegos” and the founder often described himself as “the money guy who teaches the Bible to pastors.” The “personality cult” of the collapsed family office is at the heart of a lawsuit filed Tuesday by former Archegos managing director Brendan Sullivan, who is seeking to recover $50 million he says is owed from deferred bonuses he was forced to invest with the company. Hwang, he says, did whatever it took to make money, with the goal of becoming the “richest person in the world.”

함의: 우상숭배에 가까운 기형적 구조의 조직, 그리고 끝없는 탐욕이었음.

In all this excitement, it can be easy to forget that the current bear market at the index level is so far shallow and short compared to previous downturns. The S&P has been in a bear market for six months, which is below the median of eight months and average of eleven months for bears going back to 1929. The tech-led bear market in the early 2000s lasted over two-and-a-half years. Even when we take into account how far the market has fallen, this year’s bear remains gentle by past standards. The “speed” of the current decline -- the market’s fall per month of the bear market -- stands at 3.4%, versus the median of 4.2% per month and the average of 6.2% per month. Much worse has been seen such as the cataclysmic 20% per month fall seen in the 1929 crash (and the less said about 2020’s “crash by fiat” the better).

함의: 최근 시장의 하락 기간, 하락 폭에 대해 이야기할 때 기간을 좀 더 과거로 보면 평균에도 미치지 못함.

Signs of a rapidly deteriorating US economic outlook have spurred bond traders to pencil in a complete policy turnaround by the Federal Reserve in the coming year, with interest-rate cuts in the middle of 2023.

The US is pushing the Netherlands to ban ASML Holding NV from selling to China mainstream technology essential in making a large chunk of the world’s chips, expanding its campaign to curb the country’s rise, according to people familiar with the matter.
Washington’s proposed restriction would expand an existing moratorium on the sale of the most advanced systems to China, in an attempt to thwart China’s plans to become a world leader in chip production. If the Netherlands agrees, it would broaden significantly the range and class of chipmaking gear now forbidden from heading to China, potentially dealing a serious blow to Chinese chipmakers from Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. to Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd.

함의: 중국에 대한 미국의 태도, 중추적 기술에 대해서는 여전히 첨예한 대립 상태임.

A long way down. Oil plummeted, Treasury yields fell and US stocks wavered on fears of a slowdown. WTI declined more than 9%, dropping below $100 for the first time since May 11. The S&P 500 ended just in the green, while the Nasdaq rose solidly. The dollar gained across the board, hitting a two-decade high against the euro and putting parity in sight. Gold retreated. Asian equity futures are in the red. "This is a recession trade," Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta said.

함의: King Leonidas, This is Sparta!

Bond investors are betting on a complete Fed policy turnaround in the coming year, with rate reductions in the middle of 2023 — despite a dot plot that predicts otherwise. Less than a month ago, traders were pricing in a cycle that took the fed funds rate target to more than 4%. Now, they foresee a peak around 3.3% in the first quarter of next year, followed by at least 50 bps of cuts that takes the benchmark to 2.7% by year-end.

함의: 한달 사이 4% 기준금리 상단이 3.3%로 하락, 해당 금리에서 내년 50bp 가량을 인하해 2.7%로 회귀할 것에 베팅 중임.

In recent days, there have been contrasting forecasts for oil. Some have called for a collapse to $65 per barrel, while others warned a “stratospheric” $380, if US and European penalties prompt Russia to inflict retaliatory crude-output cuts. The move lower this week has been driven by recession fears.

함의: Citi($65), J.P.Morgan($380) 중 누가 맞더라도 원인과 결과가 좋을게 없음.

In a year when stock-focused hedge funds are struggling with volatile markets, macro hedge funds that had been stymied for years by monetary easing are roaring back. A Bloomberg gauge of macro hedge funds worldwide rose 5.3% in the first five months of this year, against a 4.2% decline for funds of all strategies. The S&P 500 index meantime has plunged 20% this year. 

함의: 투자 성과가 기업 개별요인보다 거시경제 환경에 좌우되는 기간임.

The recent build up in open interest for Bitcoin futures is eerily similar to that seen just before the contract began a long descent from late 2021. That suggests the recent consolidation around the $20,000 mark is just a pause before another leg south.

함의: 비트코인 미결제약정 증가량이 2021년 하반기 하락 추세 시작점과 매우 닮았음.

Across the US, euro area, and UK, the focus for markets is on the chance of a recession in the months ahead. For many households, a sharp rise in the cost of living, combined with anxiety about the outlook, means that debate appears increasingly academic. The misery index -- which gauges household wellbeing based on the sum of inflation and unemployment -- shows conditions have deteriorated sharply, and are now comparable to those seen in past downturns.

함의: 물가와 실업률 합산으로 산출되는 고통지수가 과거 침체기 수준에 근접함.

Gold won’t save your portfolio from recession. That was the clear message from Tuesday’s trading, where the yellow metal fell 2.4% despite the growth concerns expressed in most assets -- Brent oil was down almost 10% and copper tumbled more than 4%. Bullion has been superseded by the dollar as a haven this year, partly thanks to rising yields. But in a further ominous sign for gold, it didn’t even gain any bid from the sharp decline in US yields over recent weeks. Investors must be wondering what kind of cataclysmic event is needed for the precious metal to finally get a break.

함의: 투자자들의 생각과 달리 최근 금이 방어해줘야 할 시점에서도 피난처로 작동하지 않고 있음.

Russia has pocketed $24 billion from selling energy to China and India in just three months following its invasion of Ukraine, showing how higher global prices are limiting efforts by the US and Europe to punish President Vladimir Putin. China spent $18.9 billion on Russian oil, gas and coal in the three months to the end of May, almost double the amount a year earlier, latest customs data show. Meanwhile, India shelled out $5.1 billion in the same period, more than five times the value of a year ago. That’s an extra $13 billion in revenue from both countries compared to the same months in 2021.

함의: 러시아에 대한 미국과 유럽의 제재가 효력이 없었음.

Like vintage wine that keeps getting better and better with age, the dollar -- which has already enjoyed what would, on first sight, seem like an aging rally -- gets bolder and more alluring. Except that this time the music has changed, but the winner is still the same. If the Fed’s tightening cycle pushed the Dollar Index to a multi-decade high earlier, it’s now going gangbusters as traders fret and fume a slowing global economy. So much so that the index has already gone where it was supposed to have gone under one particular scenario.

함의: 통화정책이라는 연주가 바뀌었고, 여전한 것은 달러 강세 밖에 없음.

Commodities’ fall from grace has been so swift and so brutal that just a month after setting a record in early June, the complex is now on the verge of sinking into a bear market. The selloff has been driven by concerns a nasty, demand-shredding recession lies just around the corner, as well as the dollar’s heady ascent. It’s notable that the declines have been broad-based, punishing raw materials that can boast positive underlying fundamentals, such as oil, together with those of much weaker standing, such as gold.

함의: 수요 둔화에 기인한 침체 우려로 기록적 6월 보낸 유가가 곧바로 약세장 국면까지 근접함.

The number of Covid-19 patients in Hong Kong’s hospitals doubled in recent weeks, leading health care officials to say they are concerned the epidemic situation is worsening. There are approximately 830 patients currently hospitalized in the Asian financial center, up from roughly 400 in June, said Gladys Kwan, chief manager at the Hospital Authority. The number of serious and critical patients has risen to about 30, up from a dozen or so, she said. 

The pound’s double-digit slump against the dollar this year may not be over yet amid pressure on the currency from a mix of domestic and global concerns. While sterling has barely budged on the resignations of two of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s key ministers -- in contrast to years of politically-fueled market turbulence during Brexit negotiations -- the latest political turmoil adds to the already uncertain UK outlook. Sterling, down almost 12% this year, was little changed at $1.1944 as of 11:20 a.m. London time. 

함의: 이유는 다르지만, 달러 대비 선진국 통화(Euro, Yen, Pound)의 변동성 확대는 끝나지 않았음.

The recovery in global bonds in recent weeks is enticing long-time bull HSBC Holdings Plc to make bolder calls for a bigger rally. The drop in yields since the middle of last month, following a relentless surge this year, shows investors are rejecting the prospect of rates far exceeding the long-term trend, according to strategists at the bank. They speculate that US forward rates for the second half of the upcoming decade may have peaked last month.

함의: 일부 채권 투자자들은 금리가 정점을 지났다는데 베팅 중임.

If the fiascoes at WeWork Inc and Greensill Bank AG were not enough, Klarna Bank AB should serve as another fine reminder that SoftBank Group Corp is the unluckiest whale in a crowded venture capital world. Founder Masayoshi Son somehow always manages to hold the worst cards. The Sweden-based fintech, known for its buy-now-pay-later offering, is in talks to raise about $650 million — mostly from existing investors led by Sequoia Capital. If completed, this deal would reset Klarna’s valuation to $6.5 billion, a fraction of the $45.6 billion it was priced at just a year ago in a $639 million funding round led by SoftBank. 

함의: 시장에 흘러 넘치던 투자자금으로 부풀었던 기업 가치 평가가 되돌려지고 있음.

The Federal Reserve will unveil details of what policy makers debated last month that may shed light on how they view the near-term path for interest rates amid surging inflation and signs of a slowing economy. Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed could hike by either 50 basis points or 75 basis points in July. He made the remarks at a June 15 press conference after policy makers raised rates by 75 basis points in the largest hike since 1994. The Fed will publish minutes of the meeting at 2 p.m. in Washington on Wednesday.

함의: 중앙은행 인사들의 생각을 알 수 있는 의사록이 공개되는 날임.

상식: FOMC는 연 8회 회의를 갖고 통화정책 변화를 논의하며, 경제 및 금융 환경을 검토하고, 가격 안정성과 고용 산출을 평가합니다. FOMC 회의는 매 6주에 한 번씩 소집됩니다. 회의 의사록은 정책 결정 3주후 공개됩니다.

Things could always look worse, I suppose. Silver is already trading back down at its pre-Covid peak level from February 2020. Lots of other commodity and crypto assets have charts with similarly-shaped lines, even if the relative returns haven’t quite matched up; copper, for example, would need to shed another 17% or so to hit a similar pre-Covid threshold. At the speed things are moving, though, that could happen before you know it...

함의: COVID-19 이전 가격으로 회귀한 자산, 그리고 그 궤적을 닮아 같은 경로를 밟고 있는 자산들이 많음.