A long way down. Oil plummeted, Treasury yields fell and US stocks wavered on fears of a slowdown. WTI declined more than 9%, dropping below $100 for the first time since May 11. The S&P 500 ended just in the green, while the Nasdaq rose solidly. The dollar gained across the board, hitting a two-decade high against the euro and putting parity in sight. Gold retreated. Asian equity futures are in the red. "This is a recession trade," Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta said.

함의: King Leonidas, This is Sparta!

Bond investors are betting on a complete Fed policy turnaround in the coming year, with rate reductions in the middle of 2023 — despite a dot plot that predicts otherwise. Less than a month ago, traders were pricing in a cycle that took the fed funds rate target to more than 4%. Now, they foresee a peak around 3.3% in the first quarter of next year, followed by at least 50 bps of cuts that takes the benchmark to 2.7% by year-end.

함의: 한달 사이 4% 기준금리 상단이 3.3%로 하락, 해당 금리에서 내년 50bp 가량을 인하해 2.7%로 회귀할 것에 베팅 중임.

In recent days, there have been contrasting forecasts for oil. Some have called for a collapse to $65 per barrel, while others warned a “stratospheric” $380, if US and European penalties prompt Russia to inflict retaliatory crude-output cuts. The move lower this week has been driven by recession fears.

함의: Citi($65), J.P.Morgan($380) 중 누가 맞더라도 원인과 결과가 좋을게 없음.

In a year when stock-focused hedge funds are struggling with volatile markets, macro hedge funds that had been stymied for years by monetary easing are roaring back. A Bloomberg gauge of macro hedge funds worldwide rose 5.3% in the first five months of this year, against a 4.2% decline for funds of all strategies. The S&P 500 index meantime has plunged 20% this year. 

함의: 투자 성과가 기업 개별요인보다 거시경제 환경에 좌우되는 기간임.

The recent build up in open interest for Bitcoin futures is eerily similar to that seen just before the contract began a long descent from late 2021. That suggests the recent consolidation around the $20,000 mark is just a pause before another leg south.

함의: 비트코인 미결제약정 증가량이 2021년 하반기 하락 추세 시작점과 매우 닮았음.

Across the US, euro area, and UK, the focus for markets is on the chance of a recession in the months ahead. For many households, a sharp rise in the cost of living, combined with anxiety about the outlook, means that debate appears increasingly academic. The misery index -- which gauges household wellbeing based on the sum of inflation and unemployment -- shows conditions have deteriorated sharply, and are now comparable to those seen in past downturns.

함의: 물가와 실업률 합산으로 산출되는 고통지수가 과거 침체기 수준에 근접함.

Gold won’t save your portfolio from recession. That was the clear message from Tuesday’s trading, where the yellow metal fell 2.4% despite the growth concerns expressed in most assets -- Brent oil was down almost 10% and copper tumbled more than 4%. Bullion has been superseded by the dollar as a haven this year, partly thanks to rising yields. But in a further ominous sign for gold, it didn’t even gain any bid from the sharp decline in US yields over recent weeks. Investors must be wondering what kind of cataclysmic event is needed for the precious metal to finally get a break.

함의: 투자자들의 생각과 달리 최근 금이 방어해줘야 할 시점에서도 피난처로 작동하지 않고 있음.

Russia has pocketed $24 billion from selling energy to China and India in just three months following its invasion of Ukraine, showing how higher global prices are limiting efforts by the US and Europe to punish President Vladimir Putin. China spent $18.9 billion on Russian oil, gas and coal in the three months to the end of May, almost double the amount a year earlier, latest customs data show. Meanwhile, India shelled out $5.1 billion in the same period, more than five times the value of a year ago. That’s an extra $13 billion in revenue from both countries compared to the same months in 2021.

함의: 러시아에 대한 미국과 유럽의 제재가 효력이 없었음.

Like vintage wine that keeps getting better and better with age, the dollar -- which has already enjoyed what would, on first sight, seem like an aging rally -- gets bolder and more alluring. Except that this time the music has changed, but the winner is still the same. If the Fed’s tightening cycle pushed the Dollar Index to a multi-decade high earlier, it’s now going gangbusters as traders fret and fume a slowing global economy. So much so that the index has already gone where it was supposed to have gone under one particular scenario.

함의: 통화정책이라는 연주가 바뀌었고, 여전한 것은 달러 강세 밖에 없음.

Commodities’ fall from grace has been so swift and so brutal that just a month after setting a record in early June, the complex is now on the verge of sinking into a bear market. The selloff has been driven by concerns a nasty, demand-shredding recession lies just around the corner, as well as the dollar’s heady ascent. It’s notable that the declines have been broad-based, punishing raw materials that can boast positive underlying fundamentals, such as oil, together with those of much weaker standing, such as gold.

함의: 수요 둔화에 기인한 침체 우려로 기록적 6월 보낸 유가가 곧바로 약세장 국면까지 근접함.

The number of Covid-19 patients in Hong Kong’s hospitals doubled in recent weeks, leading health care officials to say they are concerned the epidemic situation is worsening. There are approximately 830 patients currently hospitalized in the Asian financial center, up from roughly 400 in June, said Gladys Kwan, chief manager at the Hospital Authority. The number of serious and critical patients has risen to about 30, up from a dozen or so, she said. 

The pound’s double-digit slump against the dollar this year may not be over yet amid pressure on the currency from a mix of domestic and global concerns. While sterling has barely budged on the resignations of two of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s key ministers -- in contrast to years of politically-fueled market turbulence during Brexit negotiations -- the latest political turmoil adds to the already uncertain UK outlook. Sterling, down almost 12% this year, was little changed at $1.1944 as of 11:20 a.m. London time. 

함의: 이유는 다르지만, 달러 대비 선진국 통화(Euro, Yen, Pound)의 변동성 확대는 끝나지 않았음.

The recovery in global bonds in recent weeks is enticing long-time bull HSBC Holdings Plc to make bolder calls for a bigger rally. The drop in yields since the middle of last month, following a relentless surge this year, shows investors are rejecting the prospect of rates far exceeding the long-term trend, according to strategists at the bank. They speculate that US forward rates for the second half of the upcoming decade may have peaked last month.

함의: 일부 채권 투자자들은 금리가 정점을 지났다는데 베팅 중임.

If the fiascoes at WeWork Inc and Greensill Bank AG were not enough, Klarna Bank AB should serve as another fine reminder that SoftBank Group Corp is the unluckiest whale in a crowded venture capital world. Founder Masayoshi Son somehow always manages to hold the worst cards. The Sweden-based fintech, known for its buy-now-pay-later offering, is in talks to raise about $650 million — mostly from existing investors led by Sequoia Capital. If completed, this deal would reset Klarna’s valuation to $6.5 billion, a fraction of the $45.6 billion it was priced at just a year ago in a $639 million funding round led by SoftBank. 

함의: 시장에 흘러 넘치던 투자자금으로 부풀었던 기업 가치 평가가 되돌려지고 있음.

The Federal Reserve will unveil details of what policy makers debated last month that may shed light on how they view the near-term path for interest rates amid surging inflation and signs of a slowing economy. Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed could hike by either 50 basis points or 75 basis points in July. He made the remarks at a June 15 press conference after policy makers raised rates by 75 basis points in the largest hike since 1994. The Fed will publish minutes of the meeting at 2 p.m. in Washington on Wednesday.

함의: 중앙은행 인사들의 생각을 알 수 있는 의사록이 공개되는 날임.

상식: FOMC는 연 8회 회의를 갖고 통화정책 변화를 논의하며, 경제 및 금융 환경을 검토하고, 가격 안정성과 고용 산출을 평가합니다. FOMC 회의는 매 6주에 한 번씩 소집됩니다. 회의 의사록은 정책 결정 3주후 공개됩니다.

Things could always look worse, I suppose. Silver is already trading back down at its pre-Covid peak level from February 2020. Lots of other commodity and crypto assets have charts with similarly-shaped lines, even if the relative returns haven’t quite matched up; copper, for example, would need to shed another 17% or so to hit a similar pre-Covid threshold. At the speed things are moving, though, that could happen before you know it...

함의: COVID-19 이전 가격으로 회귀한 자산, 그리고 그 궤적을 닮아 같은 경로를 밟고 있는 자산들이 많음.

While bargain hunters chasing technology stocks boosted US equity gauges on Tuesday, it only helped to mask a deepening slump in stocks linked to economic activity, such as energy, commodity and industrial names. A renewed spike in China’s Covid cases and a worsening gas crisis in Europe signaled that a worldwide slowdown is coming even as central banks tighten monetary policy to contain consumer prices. “Tactical buying in identified pockets of value is the exception to a more general reluctance to deploy cash,” strategists including Peter McCallum at Mizuho International Plc wrote in a note. “The picture for risk assets remains unsettled, and needs a clearer read on the timing of peak hawkishness and the shape of the US economic landing.”

함의: 지수 측면에서 경제활동과 밀접한 주식의 하락이 기술주 저점매수로 가려졌으나, 매파적 정책과 미국 경제에 대한 명확함 없는 매수는 위험함.

A white-hot corner of the aluminum market that for months defied a broader slide in metal prices is finally slumping, flashing a warning that major industrial economies are stumbling toward a recession. While commodity-grade aluminum ingots have been tumbling since March on the London Metal Exchange, until recently the premiums paid for specialized products like billets remained sky-high. Now those premiums for aluminum billets -- a cornerstone industrial product used to make extruded parts in buildings, cars and machinery -- are slumping from record highs in Europe. 

함의: 건축물, 자동차, 기계에 사용되며 프리미엄이 여전했던 알루미늄 빌렛조차 고점에서 하락을 시작하며 산업생산 침체를 경고함.

The People’s Bank of China slashed its daily short-term liquidity operation to 3 billion yuan ($447 million) this week, the smallest amount since January 2021. At this pace it’s likely to remove more cash in the first five days of this month than it injected toward end-June. “The PBOC is shifting its monetary policy from a crisis mode to a normalization,” Ming Ming, chief economist at Citic Securities, wrote in a note. The central bank tolerated the low money market rate levels in the second quarter when Covid outbreaks disturbed economic growth, but that might be coming to an end, he wrote.

함의: 완화적 통화정책으로 평가받던 중국도 정상화 움직임 중임.

Oil prices collapsed today, with Brent down more than 10% from the morning highs. We view this move as driven by growing recession fears in the face of low trading liquidity, with technicals exacerbating the sell-off. The declines in prices and refining margins since mid-June are now equivalent to the oil market pricing in an 1.1% downward revision to 2H22-2023 global GDP growth expectations. We believe this move has overshot - while risks of a future recession are growing, key to our bullish view is that the current oil deficit remains unresolved, with demand destruction through high prices the only solver left as still declining inventories approach critically low levels.

보고서: 유가 하락을 촉발시킨 침체 우려는 과도하다고 판단하며, 공급 부족 해결이 요원하기에 긍정적 의견을 유지함. (Goldman Sachs - Oil succumbs to recession fears)

Inflation continues to be one of the top concerns for two-thirds of consumers, in line with two weeks ago and significantly higher compared to the beginning of the year. Concern over COVID-19 spread continues to trend low 25% (vs. 32% last month). Slightly more consumers 41% (vs. 38% two weeks ago and last month) are worried about the political environment in the U.S. Apart from inflation, low-income consumers are generally more worried about the inability to pay rent and other debts, while upper income consumers over index on concerns over investments, the political environment in the U.S. and geopolitical conflicts. Consumer confidence in the economy continues to weaken with only 23% of consumers expecting the economy to get better (lowest since the inception of the survey and compared to 26% two weeks ago), while 59% (in-line with two weeks ago and 50% in April) of consumers expect the economy to get worse. This lines up with the lows observed in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

보고서: 물가 부담에 더해 임대료 및 부채에 대한 부담이 소비심리를 크게 위축시킬 것으로 봄. (Morgan Stanley - AlphaWise US Consumer Pulse Survey)