Commodities’ fall from grace has been so swift and so brutal that just a month after setting a record in early June, the complex is now on the verge of sinking into a bear market. The selloff has been driven by concerns a nasty, demand-shredding recession lies just around the corner, as well as the dollar’s heady ascent. It’s notable that the declines have been broad-based, punishing raw materials that can boast positive underlying fundamentals, such as oil, together with those of much weaker standing, such as gold.

함의: 수요 둔화에 기인한 침체 우려로 기록적 6월 보낸 유가가 곧바로 약세장 국면까지 근접함.

The number of Covid-19 patients in Hong Kong’s hospitals doubled in recent weeks, leading health care officials to say they are concerned the epidemic situation is worsening. There are approximately 830 patients currently hospitalized in the Asian financial center, up from roughly 400 in June, said Gladys Kwan, chief manager at the Hospital Authority. The number of serious and critical patients has risen to about 30, up from a dozen or so, she said. 

The pound’s double-digit slump against the dollar this year may not be over yet amid pressure on the currency from a mix of domestic and global concerns. While sterling has barely budged on the resignations of two of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s key ministers -- in contrast to years of politically-fueled market turbulence during Brexit negotiations -- the latest political turmoil adds to the already uncertain UK outlook. Sterling, down almost 12% this year, was little changed at $1.1944 as of 11:20 a.m. London time. 

함의: 이유는 다르지만, 달러 대비 선진국 통화(Euro, Yen, Pound)의 변동성 확대는 끝나지 않았음.

The recovery in global bonds in recent weeks is enticing long-time bull HSBC Holdings Plc to make bolder calls for a bigger rally. The drop in yields since the middle of last month, following a relentless surge this year, shows investors are rejecting the prospect of rates far exceeding the long-term trend, according to strategists at the bank. They speculate that US forward rates for the second half of the upcoming decade may have peaked last month.

함의: 일부 채권 투자자들은 금리가 정점을 지났다는데 베팅 중임.

If the fiascoes at WeWork Inc and Greensill Bank AG were not enough, Klarna Bank AB should serve as another fine reminder that SoftBank Group Corp is the unluckiest whale in a crowded venture capital world. Founder Masayoshi Son somehow always manages to hold the worst cards. The Sweden-based fintech, known for its buy-now-pay-later offering, is in talks to raise about $650 million — mostly from existing investors led by Sequoia Capital. If completed, this deal would reset Klarna’s valuation to $6.5 billion, a fraction of the $45.6 billion it was priced at just a year ago in a $639 million funding round led by SoftBank. 

함의: 시장에 흘러 넘치던 투자자금으로 부풀었던 기업 가치 평가가 되돌려지고 있음.

The Federal Reserve will unveil details of what policy makers debated last month that may shed light on how they view the near-term path for interest rates amid surging inflation and signs of a slowing economy. Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed could hike by either 50 basis points or 75 basis points in July. He made the remarks at a June 15 press conference after policy makers raised rates by 75 basis points in the largest hike since 1994. The Fed will publish minutes of the meeting at 2 p.m. in Washington on Wednesday.

함의: 중앙은행 인사들의 생각을 알 수 있는 의사록이 공개되는 날임.

상식: FOMC는 연 8회 회의를 갖고 통화정책 변화를 논의하며, 경제 및 금융 환경을 검토하고, 가격 안정성과 고용 산출을 평가합니다. FOMC 회의는 매 6주에 한 번씩 소집됩니다. 회의 의사록은 정책 결정 3주후 공개됩니다.

Things could always look worse, I suppose. Silver is already trading back down at its pre-Covid peak level from February 2020. Lots of other commodity and crypto assets have charts with similarly-shaped lines, even if the relative returns haven’t quite matched up; copper, for example, would need to shed another 17% or so to hit a similar pre-Covid threshold. At the speed things are moving, though, that could happen before you know it...

함의: COVID-19 이전 가격으로 회귀한 자산, 그리고 그 궤적을 닮아 같은 경로를 밟고 있는 자산들이 많음.

While bargain hunters chasing technology stocks boosted US equity gauges on Tuesday, it only helped to mask a deepening slump in stocks linked to economic activity, such as energy, commodity and industrial names. A renewed spike in China’s Covid cases and a worsening gas crisis in Europe signaled that a worldwide slowdown is coming even as central banks tighten monetary policy to contain consumer prices. “Tactical buying in identified pockets of value is the exception to a more general reluctance to deploy cash,” strategists including Peter McCallum at Mizuho International Plc wrote in a note. “The picture for risk assets remains unsettled, and needs a clearer read on the timing of peak hawkishness and the shape of the US economic landing.”

함의: 지수 측면에서 경제활동과 밀접한 주식의 하락이 기술주 저점매수로 가려졌으나, 매파적 정책과 미국 경제에 대한 명확함 없는 매수는 위험함.

A white-hot corner of the aluminum market that for months defied a broader slide in metal prices is finally slumping, flashing a warning that major industrial economies are stumbling toward a recession. While commodity-grade aluminum ingots have been tumbling since March on the London Metal Exchange, until recently the premiums paid for specialized products like billets remained sky-high. Now those premiums for aluminum billets -- a cornerstone industrial product used to make extruded parts in buildings, cars and machinery -- are slumping from record highs in Europe. 

함의: 건축물, 자동차, 기계에 사용되며 프리미엄이 여전했던 알루미늄 빌렛조차 고점에서 하락을 시작하며 산업생산 침체를 경고함.

The People’s Bank of China slashed its daily short-term liquidity operation to 3 billion yuan ($447 million) this week, the smallest amount since January 2021. At this pace it’s likely to remove more cash in the first five days of this month than it injected toward end-June. “The PBOC is shifting its monetary policy from a crisis mode to a normalization,” Ming Ming, chief economist at Citic Securities, wrote in a note. The central bank tolerated the low money market rate levels in the second quarter when Covid outbreaks disturbed economic growth, but that might be coming to an end, he wrote.

함의: 완화적 통화정책으로 평가받던 중국도 정상화 움직임 중임.

Oil prices collapsed today, with Brent down more than 10% from the morning highs. We view this move as driven by growing recession fears in the face of low trading liquidity, with technicals exacerbating the sell-off. The declines in prices and refining margins since mid-June are now equivalent to the oil market pricing in an 1.1% downward revision to 2H22-2023 global GDP growth expectations. We believe this move has overshot - while risks of a future recession are growing, key to our bullish view is that the current oil deficit remains unresolved, with demand destruction through high prices the only solver left as still declining inventories approach critically low levels.

보고서: 유가 하락을 촉발시킨 침체 우려는 과도하다고 판단하며, 공급 부족 해결이 요원하기에 긍정적 의견을 유지함. (Goldman Sachs - Oil succumbs to recession fears)

Inflation continues to be one of the top concerns for two-thirds of consumers, in line with two weeks ago and significantly higher compared to the beginning of the year. Concern over COVID-19 spread continues to trend low 25% (vs. 32% last month). Slightly more consumers 41% (vs. 38% two weeks ago and last month) are worried about the political environment in the U.S. Apart from inflation, low-income consumers are generally more worried about the inability to pay rent and other debts, while upper income consumers over index on concerns over investments, the political environment in the U.S. and geopolitical conflicts. Consumer confidence in the economy continues to weaken with only 23% of consumers expecting the economy to get better (lowest since the inception of the survey and compared to 26% two weeks ago), while 59% (in-line with two weeks ago and 50% in April) of consumers expect the economy to get worse. This lines up with the lows observed in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

보고서: 물가 부담에 더해 임대료 및 부채에 대한 부담이 소비심리를 크게 위축시킬 것으로 봄. (Morgan Stanley - AlphaWise US Consumer Pulse Survey)

Fortuitous investors who flocked to Cathie Wood’s flagship fund at the end of last week got in before a big rally. The $9.2 billion Ark Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) saw a $323 million inflow Friday, the most since May, according to the latest data compiled by Bloomberg. On the following trading day, the fund soared 9.1%, the biggest rally in two months. With rate hikes battering growth stocks, ARKK is still down more than 50% this year. But fans of Wood continue to remain loyal, adding $1.8 billion to the exchange-traded fund in the span.

함의: 충성도 높은 투자자를 보유한 상장지수펀드는 -50% 손실에도 자금이 유입됨.

This week’s yield curve inversion has more room to run if exchange-traded fund flows are any guide. Nearly $2.3 billion flooded into the $23 billion iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker IEF) through last Friday in the fund’s biggest weekly influx since 2014, followed by another $767 million inflow on Tuesday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Meanwhile, more than $202 million exited the $20 billion SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) in the first weekly outflow since early June. The flows show how investors are shifting positions to benefit from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive campaign to rein in the steepest inflation in four decades. The central bank’s interest-rate hikes will likely weigh on short-term bonds, while mounting speculation of a recession may drive longer-term yields lower, which usually happens when investors anticipate a steep slowdown in economic growth. This week a key portion of the Treasury curve did such an inversion, with 10-year yields dropping below those on 2-year notes.

함의: 인플레이션 통제를 위한 정책금리에 영향을 받는 단기 채권 자금은 이탈, 경제 둔화에 영향을 받는 장기 채권 자금은 역대 규모로 유입됨.

The French government will nationalize its financially-struggling nuclear giant Electricite de France SA  to help it ride out Europe’s worst energy crisis in a generation. “The climate emergency requires strong, radical decisions. We need to have full control of the production and our energy future. We must ensure our sovereignty faced with the consequences of the war and the colossal challenges ahead,” Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said during her policy speech in parliament in Paris on Wednesday. “That is why I confirm today the intention of the state to hold 100% of the capital of EDF.”

함의: 프랑스 정부는 원자력 업체를 국유화하는 방법까지 선택하며 중대한 에너지 위기를 극복하려 함.

We have already been systematically reducing forecasts through Q1 earnings to reflect a benign normalization of COVID demand combined with an assumed shallow economic slowdown. However, US inflation has spiked to the highest level since 1981 and our economists further reduced economic growth forecasts for the US on June 20 and increased their assessment of recession risk to 30% at the same time. Against that backdrop, investors have been asking us what company fundamentals and valuation might look like in a more severe 2008/09 style slowdown. In this report we answer that question in detail, for the 27 companies we cover. We also further trim select base case models to account for further reduction in economic forecasts, since earnings. Given we have been proactively adjusting ratings as data presented itself we maintain our ratings. We would point out that our consumer electronics coverage generally has the most downside risk to fundamentals should a worse downturn in demand, vs. our base case, materialize but our datapoints as of this writing are still consistent with a shallow slowdown similar to our economists' current forecasts. The potential for combined fundamental and equity valuation downside is higher for debt levered names such as VVNT (-83%), COMM (-59%), and AVYA (-49%) and consumer electronics names such as AAPL (-41%) and CRSR (-49%). Downside risk is lower for infrastructure oriented stocks like CMBM (-15%) and INFN (-9%). Looking at just larger cap stocks we see the greatest potential downside risk in HPE and AAPL and the least in CIEN, QCOM, ANET and PSTG.

보고서: 아직까지 얕은 수준의 침체를 예상하지만, 침체가 더 심화될 경우 특히 소비에 의존적인 기업의 가치 훼손이 매우 클 것임. (Goldman Sachs - Assessing deep recession risk for 27 companies; Trimming Base cases further as recession risk increases)

Concern about the impact of a stronger dollar on corporate profits is coming into sharper focus as earnings season nears. That’s come with even more focus than usual aimed at company results due to mounting forecasts for a recession, and following recent high-profile disappointments. Investors have for months anticipated the dollar would keep strengthening. And now the rally just keeps getting “bolder and more alluring," as my colleague Ven Ram put it. Expectations for the Fed to keep hiking, along with a flight-to-safety bid amid anxiety about the Ukraine war and global growth, can keep the dollar strong. Conviction is growing that the euro’s about to break parity with the dollar.

함의: 미국 기업 이익에 부정적 영향을 미치는 달러 강세가 더 심화 될 환경에 있음.

China accused the US of “technological terrorism” in pushing to stop ASML Holding NV and Nikon Corp. from selling key chipmaking technology to the country, in some of its strongest criticism yet of Washington’s efforts. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian lashed out at Washington after Bloomberg News reported the US is lobbying allies to stop the sale of mainstream technology essential for making a large chunk of the world’s chips, expanding a years-long campaign to curb the country’s rise. He didn’t say whether China planned any retaliatory measures in response to the move. 

함의: 핵심 칩 기술 판매에 대한 갈등 속 미국의 행동을 테러라고 표현할 정도로 긴장감이 고조되고 있음.

Federal Reserve officials became more resolved last month to keep raising interest rates for longer to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched, even if that slowed the US economy. Policy makers increased interest rates by 75 basis points last month and backed hiking them at their next meeting in July by either 50 or 75 basis points, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 14-15 policy meeting released Wednesday in Washington. They viewed maintaining the central bank’s credibility to control inflation as crucial.

함의: 의사록을 통해 인플레이션을 반드시 잡겠다는 의지를 다시 한 번 확인함.

Apple is now offering "extreme" security protections for iPhone, iPad and Mac devices. The optional feature, called Lockdown Mode, is designed to prevent targeted cyberattacks on high-profile users such as activists, journalists and government officials. The tool vastly reduces the number of physical and digital ways for an attacker to hack a user's device and is primarily intended to combat attacks from spyware.   

함의: Good.

Rising rates and global recession threats are sending traders scurrying to the safety of the dollar — and it's whacking EM currencies. The MSCI EM Currency Index dropped for a second day on Wednesday. Leading losses: the Russian ruble, the Colombian peso, the Philippine peso and the South Korean won. "No matter how things turn out, it's bad for EM," Win Thin at Brown Brothers Harriman wrote.

함의: 신흥국 통화가치 하락이 지속될 수 있음.