The gap between short-term pricing expectations of diesel and gasoline is widening, indicating industrial demand is more resilient to high prices than consumers being squeezed at the pump. That suggests diesel may go higher due to very tight global supply as winter approaches. Global diesel inventories are still low, and supplies from China -- the world’s largest exporter of distillates -- remain muted. To offset a drop in flows, Europe boosted imports from Americas. And despite environmental concerns, looming natural-gas shortages are forcing European power plants to switch to alternative fuels.

함의: 경유와 휘발유 간 가격 차이가 지속 확대되고 있는데, 산업용도와 난방용도로 공히 사용되는 경유는 수요 대비 공급부족이 심화되고 있기 때문이며, 유럽의 경우 환경오염 우려에도 불구 다시 발전소를 가동해야 함.

The White House sought to dial back rising tensions with China over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s expected visit to Taiwan, insisting the trip doesn’t signal a change in US posture toward the island and urging Beijing to refrain from an aggressive response. Pelosi may land in Taipei as soon as Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter, a landmark visit that would make her the highest-ranking US official to set foot on the island in 25 years. China regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has promised “grave consequences” for Pelosi’s visit. A meeting with Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-Wen, is on Pelosi’s schedule for Wednesday, according to one of the people. “Put simply, there is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with long-standing US policy into some sort of crisis or conflict or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said at a Monday press briefing. 

함의: 하원의장의 대만 방문이 미국을 대변하지 않으며 중국의 정책에 대한 입장 변화는 없다며 갈등이 고조되지 않길 바란다고 함.

Asia Defense Firms Rise Ahead of Expected Pelosi Visit to Taiwan. Some Asian defense firms gain after a report saying US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will be arriving in Taiwan later on Tuesday renewed concerns that US-China tensions may escalate. South Korea: Hanwha Aerospace gains as much as 6.4%, Firstec +4%, Japan: Ishikawa Seisakusho +3.3%, Hosoya Pyro-Engineering +4.5%, China: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AviChina Industry & Technology, AVIC Electromechanical, China Harzone Industry, China Zhenhua Group, AVIC Jonhon, AECC Aviation Power, China Aerospace Times, China Spacesat, Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry, Anhui Great Wall Military, China Shipbuilding Industry.

As the US Congress passed an historic $52 billion federal program to boost domestic chipmaking capabilities, it included one significant caveat: Companies that receive the funding have to promise not to increase their production of advanced chips in China. It’s a condition that will certainly add to escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing. The curbs will hit companies like Intel Corp. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., leading chipmakers that have tried to build their businesses in China. TSMC won’t be able substantially upgrade or expand its existing facilities, effectively losing some growth opportunities in the world’s biggest semiconductor market. Specifically, the Chips and Science Act bars companies that get federal funding from materially expanding production of chips more advanced than 28-nanometer in China -- or a country of concern like Russia -- for ten years. While 28-nanometer chips are several generations behind the most cutting-edge semiconductors available now, they are still used in a wide range of products including cars and smartphones. The ban covers both logic and memory chips.

함의: 반도체 보조금 법안에 눈여겨 보아야 할 점은 지원을 받는 기업은 중국 내 설비및 첨단 기술 투자를 제한한다는 것으로 인텔이나 TSMC처럼 중국 확장을 통해 성장을 계획했던 것을 막을 뿐 아니라, 지난 기술이지만 여전히 자동차나 핸드폰에 사용되는 28nm 칩을 중국이나 러시아와 같은 우범지역서 10년간 생산치 못하게 하는 것도 포함되어있음.

Are We There Yet?

Company executives are getting much more worried about economic growth, judging by their earnings conference calls, even as stocks staged a furious rebound in July. Executives and analysts are on track to use phrases related to an economic slowdown three times more on second-quarter calls than they did during first-quarter results, according to a Bloomberg analysis of trannoscripts for companies in the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the Stoxx Europe 600 indexes. A Bank of America Corp. tracker also showed corporate sentiment during earnings calls has plummeted even as analysts are still expecting earnings growth to accelerate into next year.

함의: 애널리스트 추정치는 여전히 내년도 성장을 이어갈 것으로 전망되는 가운데, 2분기 실적 컨퍼런스콜에서 경기둔화를 지난 1분기보다 3배 많이 언급함.

China’s top leaders told government officials last week that this year’s economic growth target of “around 5.5%” should serve as guidance rather than a hard target that must be hit, according to people familiar with the matter. Leaders held meetings with ministerial and provincial-level officials last week, during which they were told the target won’t be used to evaluate their performance and there won’t be penalties for failing to achieve it, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The leaders also acknowledged that the chances of meeting the target were slim, the people said.

함의: 경제성장률 5.5% 달성이 쉽지 않음을 알고, 이를 달성하지 못한다해서 불이익은 없으며 가이던스 정도라고 함.

The US economy may need to undergo a deeper and longer recession than investors currently anticipate before inflation can be brought under control, according to Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse Group AG. Markets expect the surge in consumer prices will soon peak and central banks will become less hawkish, but there’s a high risk that global cost pressures will remain elevated, Pozsar, global head of short-term interest-rate strategy at Credit Suisse in New York, wrote in a client note. The world is being wracked by an economic war that’s undermining the deflationary relationships that have prevailed in recent decades where Russia and China supplied cheap goods and services to more developed nations such as the US and those in Europe, he said.

함의: 저렴한 비용으로 재화와 서비스를 공급하며 디플레이션을 만들었던 중국, 러시아와 관계가 악화 된 현재에 있어 인플레이션이 완화되기 위해 우리가 겪어내야 할 시간은 더 남았다고 함.

The standoff between the US and China over Taiwan has thrown a spotlight on growing risks to one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes -- even a minor disruption could ripple through supply chains. The Taiwan Strait is the primary route for ships passing from China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to points west, carrying goods from Asian factory hubs to markets in Europe, the US and all points in between. Almost half of the global container fleet and a whopping 88% of the world’s largest ships by tonnage passed through the waterway this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

함의: 세계적 물류 허브 중 하나인 대만을 둘러싼 중국과 미국의 갈등이 격화될 경우 공급망 병목현상이 다시 심화될 수 있음.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic is quickly emerging as one of Wall Street’s lone bullish strategists, who says US stocks will rally in the second half. Kolanovic, voted the No. 1 equity-linked strategist in last year’s Institutional Investor survey, has stuck to his calls for risky assets this year despite the sharp rout in the first half. He expects a rebound in stocks on attractive valuations and as the peak in investor bearishness has likely passed. “Although the activity outlook remains challenging, we believe that the risk-reward for equities is looking more attractive as we move through the second half,” Kolanovic wrote in a note dated Aug. 1. “The phase of bad data being interpreted as good is gaining traction, while the call of peak Federal Reserve hawkishness, peak yields and peak inflation is playing out.”

함의: 그는 하반기 주식랠리를 전망하는 소수의 선봉에 있으며, 악화 된 지표가 매파적 정책, 높은 금리, 인플레이션을 돌려놓기 시작하는 시점에서 현재 주식의 위험보상비율이 좋다고 주장함.

Ferrari NV raised its outlook for 2022 as sales in China and the US fueled better-than-expected earnings in the second quarter. The Italian carmaker now expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of as much as 1.73 billion euros ($1.77 billion) this year, more than a previous upper estimate of 1.7 billion euros, according to a statement Tuesday. Ferrari is in the midst of a broader shift toward electrification, turning its historic factory in northern Italy into a hub for battery-powered cars. The transformation underscores how even the most pure-bred makers of combustion engines are embracing an electric future. 

함의: 경기침체에 의한 가처분소득 감소, 가격인상에 따른 탄력적 수요감소에 영향을 받지 않는 소비재를 명품이라 함.

JPMorgan’s China Calls Show Market Timing Is Tough. Predicting the returns of Chinese technology stocks is harder than ever in an age of shifting government policy, rising interest rates and cooling economies. Take JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Alex Yao. He downgraded 28 Chinese internet stocks in March, calling the industry “uninvestable” --- right before an epic rally. He then shifted to upgrade the sector in mid-May and, while indexes are higher since then, the biggest company, Tencent Holdings Ltd., is down nearly 20%. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is a hair’s breadth away from wiping out all the gains since Yao upgraded the stock. An investor following Yao’s recommendations on Tencent would have lost 48% over the past year, worst among the analysts following the stock, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. Still, Yao has plenty of company. Strategies from many analysts on the stock would have generated losses of more than 30%. Yao and JPMorgan didn’t respond to requests for comment. 

함의: 중국을 이해하고 제대로 투자하기 쉽지 않음.

Life is full of little ironies, isn’t it? Recession talk is all the rage these days, and based on last week’s GDP release the US has met the criteria for a so-called “technical” recession. Yet corporate earnings continue to expand and employment growth remains robust for now -- hardly what you’d expect during an economic contraction. Obviously, inflation makes it more difficult than usual to tease out the true state of real growth from nominal variables. Still, throughout the last couple of weeks market pricing has actually seen the imputed chance of an economic contraction decline -- ironic indeed. Parsing through some ancillary metrics on economic activity delivers mixed messages on how imminent the threat of a “true” recession actually is. Ultimately, we’re left none the wiser... which suggests that uncertainty and realized volatility will remain elevated. 

함의: 경기침체에 대해 우려를 높였다 낮췄다 반복하며 확실한 것은 불확실성과 변동성은 확대될 것임.