China’s top leaders told government officials last week that this year’s economic growth target of “around 5.5%” should serve as guidance rather than a hard target that must be hit, according to people familiar with the matter. Leaders held meetings with ministerial and provincial-level officials last week, during which they were told the target won’t be used to evaluate their performance and there won’t be penalties for failing to achieve it, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The leaders also acknowledged that the chances of meeting the target were slim, the people said.

함의: 경제성장률 5.5% 달성이 쉽지 않음을 알고, 이를 달성하지 못한다해서 불이익은 없으며 가이던스 정도라고 함.

The US economy may need to undergo a deeper and longer recession than investors currently anticipate before inflation can be brought under control, according to Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse Group AG. Markets expect the surge in consumer prices will soon peak and central banks will become less hawkish, but there’s a high risk that global cost pressures will remain elevated, Pozsar, global head of short-term interest-rate strategy at Credit Suisse in New York, wrote in a client note. The world is being wracked by an economic war that’s undermining the deflationary relationships that have prevailed in recent decades where Russia and China supplied cheap goods and services to more developed nations such as the US and those in Europe, he said.

함의: 저렴한 비용으로 재화와 서비스를 공급하며 디플레이션을 만들었던 중국, 러시아와 관계가 악화 된 현재에 있어 인플레이션이 완화되기 위해 우리가 겪어내야 할 시간은 더 남았다고 함.

The standoff between the US and China over Taiwan has thrown a spotlight on growing risks to one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes -- even a minor disruption could ripple through supply chains. The Taiwan Strait is the primary route for ships passing from China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to points west, carrying goods from Asian factory hubs to markets in Europe, the US and all points in between. Almost half of the global container fleet and a whopping 88% of the world’s largest ships by tonnage passed through the waterway this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

함의: 세계적 물류 허브 중 하나인 대만을 둘러싼 중국과 미국의 갈등이 격화될 경우 공급망 병목현상이 다시 심화될 수 있음.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic is quickly emerging as one of Wall Street’s lone bullish strategists, who says US stocks will rally in the second half. Kolanovic, voted the No. 1 equity-linked strategist in last year’s Institutional Investor survey, has stuck to his calls for risky assets this year despite the sharp rout in the first half. He expects a rebound in stocks on attractive valuations and as the peak in investor bearishness has likely passed. “Although the activity outlook remains challenging, we believe that the risk-reward for equities is looking more attractive as we move through the second half,” Kolanovic wrote in a note dated Aug. 1. “The phase of bad data being interpreted as good is gaining traction, while the call of peak Federal Reserve hawkishness, peak yields and peak inflation is playing out.”

함의: 그는 하반기 주식랠리를 전망하는 소수의 선봉에 있으며, 악화 된 지표가 매파적 정책, 높은 금리, 인플레이션을 돌려놓기 시작하는 시점에서 현재 주식의 위험보상비율이 좋다고 주장함.

Ferrari NV raised its outlook for 2022 as sales in China and the US fueled better-than-expected earnings in the second quarter. The Italian carmaker now expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of as much as 1.73 billion euros ($1.77 billion) this year, more than a previous upper estimate of 1.7 billion euros, according to a statement Tuesday. Ferrari is in the midst of a broader shift toward electrification, turning its historic factory in northern Italy into a hub for battery-powered cars. The transformation underscores how even the most pure-bred makers of combustion engines are embracing an electric future. 

함의: 경기침체에 의한 가처분소득 감소, 가격인상에 따른 탄력적 수요감소에 영향을 받지 않는 소비재를 명품이라 함.

JPMorgan’s China Calls Show Market Timing Is Tough. Predicting the returns of Chinese technology stocks is harder than ever in an age of shifting government policy, rising interest rates and cooling economies. Take JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Alex Yao. He downgraded 28 Chinese internet stocks in March, calling the industry “uninvestable” --- right before an epic rally. He then shifted to upgrade the sector in mid-May and, while indexes are higher since then, the biggest company, Tencent Holdings Ltd., is down nearly 20%. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is a hair’s breadth away from wiping out all the gains since Yao upgraded the stock. An investor following Yao’s recommendations on Tencent would have lost 48% over the past year, worst among the analysts following the stock, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. Still, Yao has plenty of company. Strategies from many analysts on the stock would have generated losses of more than 30%. Yao and JPMorgan didn’t respond to requests for comment. 

함의: 중국을 이해하고 제대로 투자하기 쉽지 않음.

Life is full of little ironies, isn’t it? Recession talk is all the rage these days, and based on last week’s GDP release the US has met the criteria for a so-called “technical” recession. Yet corporate earnings continue to expand and employment growth remains robust for now -- hardly what you’d expect during an economic contraction. Obviously, inflation makes it more difficult than usual to tease out the true state of real growth from nominal variables. Still, throughout the last couple of weeks market pricing has actually seen the imputed chance of an economic contraction decline -- ironic indeed. Parsing through some ancillary metrics on economic activity delivers mixed messages on how imminent the threat of a “true” recession actually is. Ultimately, we’re left none the wiser... which suggests that uncertainty and realized volatility will remain elevated. 

함의: 경기침체에 대해 우려를 높였다 낮췄다 반복하며 확실한 것은 불확실성과 변동성은 확대될 것임.

"Never be afraid to sit awhile and think."

- Lorraine Hansberry

Federal Reserve officials said they want strong evidence that the hottest inflation in four decades is on a sustainable downward path before declaring victory in their fight against it. With consumer prices rising 9.1% in June from a year earlier, the Fed has “a long way to go” on reaching price stability around a 2% inflation target, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Tuesday in an interview on LinkedIn. “We are still resolute and completely united” on achieving the objective, she said. Her Cleveland counterpart, Loretta Mester, told the Washington Post during a live-streamed event she wants to see “very compelling evidence” that month-to-month price increases are moderating before saying that the US central bank’s tightening cycle is accomplishing its goal of curbing inflation.

함의: 인플레이션이 통제되고 있다는 강력한 증거가 보일 때까지 긴 싸움을 이어갈 것이라고 함.

A giant Chinese supplier of electric-vehicle batteries decided to push back announcing a multibillion-dollar North American plant to supply Tesla Inc. and Ford Motor Co. due to tensions raised by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd., the world’s biggest maker of batteries for electric vehicles, has been considering at least two locations in Mexico near the Texas border, as well as sites in the US, for the plant. China’s CATL has been in an advanced stage of site selection and negotiating incentives, in anticipation of announcing its selection in the coming weeks. CATL now plans to wait until September or October to make the announcement, the people familiar with the process said Tuesday, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. The concern is that an announcement could stoke tensions at a sensitive time in US-China ties amid the controversial Pelosi visit to Taiwan, they said.

함의: CATL은 테슬라와 포드 공급망을 위해 공장 부지 선정과 보상금 협의 단계에 있었으나 미국 하원의장의 대만 방문에 따른 갈등 고조로 한두달 미루기로 함.

The Federal Reserve may be able to slow inflation without sparking a recession in the US economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said. The US central bank has developed over time respect for its ability to tame price increases, marking a contrast to the 1970s, Bullard said Tuesday. And that increases the odds policy that makers can succeed in cooling prices while minimizing pain for the economy, he said. The same is true for the European Central Bank, he also said. “Since modern central banks have more credibility than their counterparts in the 1970s, it appears that both the Fed and the ECB may be able to disinflate in an orderly manner and achieve a relatively soft landing,” Bullard said in remarks prepared for delivery at an event organized by the Money Marketeers of New York University. 

함의: 중앙은행은 70년대와 달리 경기침체를 피하면서 인플레이션을 통제해 연착륙을 달성할 것이라 자신함.

The comments from Fed officials including Mary Daly, Loretta Mester and Charles Evans served to highlight the challenging backdrop of rising borrowing costs, price pressures and slowing economic growth confronting markets. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the Fed has “a long way to go” on reaching price stability around a 2% inflation target. Cleveland counterpart Mester said she wants to see “very compelling evidence” that month-to-month price increases are moderating.

함의: FOMC 이후 공식석상의 발언이 이어지며 시장의 앞서나갔던 기대를 되돌리고 있음.

Battery supply demand dynamics to be seen as more localized. The proposed US EV tax credit supports focus on more localized battery supply demand dynamics, in our view. Although cell manufacturing in general will likely see overbuilt capacity during 2022-25, with the global average utilization declining towards 56% by 2025, we note the oversupply will be mostly in China while the US and Europe markets will likely remain tight, with utilization largely above 100% over 2022-25E. Korean battery makers can benefit from the US market share gains. While we take no view on the passage of this bill, if passed we see the proposed subsidy as a significant positive for Korean battery makers who are significantly expanding market share in the US (we estimate LGES / SKI market share growing to 26% / 10% (ex JV) by 2025E vs <10% / 0% in 2021, respectively). China battery makers expansion plans within the US have been more limited, and on the margin we think their export competitiveness will weaken given the potential supply chain localization required in the US to qualify for subsidies.

보고서: 미국 전기차 배터리 법안은 현지화를 더 가속화 할 것인데, 미국 투자에 제한적인 중국보다 현재 확장을 지속하고 있는 한국 기업들이 이에 수혜를 입을 것으로 봄. (Goldman Sachs - Implications from proposed US EV tax credit reform to Asian battery makers)