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Jelle's Marble Runs
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M1S6 Individual Fantasy Rounds 5-6 Update

Hello all, another two races of Marbula 1 have come and gone, which means it is time to check in for the 3rd time this season on the Individual Fantasy.

Race 5 - Greenstone:

A repeat track with some significant design changes induced a yellow dominated podium, with all 3 podiumists having yellow as at minimum a defining feature. Yellow Eye, rookie standout Yeller, and Swifty all made up the podium here. This event surprisingly delivered below average scores, with no team scoring over 100 points. Here's this event's top 5:

1: Mellow Supporter - 97
2: RIP Biskit - 91
3: Freeze - 90
4: Marbles for Autism - 87
5: Micek_52 - 87

Only 6 people made the smart decision this season (so far) in rostering Yeller, so that meant chances of anyone getting all 3 podiumists was going to be slim. Mellow Supporter, however, managed to fulfill the task, claiming all three of the podiumists this round.


Race 6 - Orion's Belt:

A new track brought us some chaos for this tournament, especially since Red Eye did not exactly live up to potential, or rather, expectations. But hey, at least he got all 4 of the bonus points. Our podium consisted of the new individual leader Smoggy, followed by Glimmer, and then Billy (first bronze of his M1 career, fun fact). Overall, I'd say this was a slightly below average scoring round, nothing too spectacular but the majority of teams didn't have a disaster here. Here's the top 5:

1: Tazer - 125
2: ßC | Math_Zz 27 - 125
3: Tomasticar - 110
4: Solaris - 108
5: Super Yak - 101

Once again, the inclusion of Glimmer makes a complete podium combination difficult, but it did happen. Tomasticar managed to include all 3 podiumists on the roster for this round.


Overall Top 10:

1: Swifty - 529
2: Micek_52 - 509
3: araneaesGrasp - 506
4: Spork - 495
5: KeepItMellow - 483
6: NeverEatDawnSoap - 482
7: Tazer - 473
8: Mathew117 - 473
9: Marbles for Autism - 471
10: InkWeather - 470

We are just past the halfway point of the season, and with only 2 races left per marble, time is running out. We have some teams that are trying to pull ahead, but it is still possible for anyone to win.

I will be back after Race 8 (Electron Expressway) for another biweekly update, but as always, I will continue to update the spreadsheet each week.

Standings Spreadsheet Link: Standings

https://redd.it/1pt4q7c
@MarbleRacing
Thunderblog 127: Christmas Competition

Happy holidays Thunderblog fans! We have the annual Christmas Race and with it comes Christmas Coverage. Will Thunder give us a gift this season, or will he give us coal?

Thunderblog 126: Looks like we made the Nice List!

Holiday Race:

Thunder cruises to P2 in their heat. In the semi-final they win their heat and advance to the finals! Thunder got an okay start in the final and fought to finish 5th overall. A good result for this holiday season and hopefully something he can build on for when Impact Marble Racing returns.

Quack Attack:

Billy does not make it out of the same heat as Thunder. A whimper for the holidays and 19th overall. Hopefully Billy was more prepared for Marbula 1 than this. I don’t want to see this form at the weekend.

Sweet Section

Choc barely makes it through after taking an early lead in their heat. In Semifinal A they fail to make it through. A good effort to get 12th overall.

Other News:

In other news, happy holidays to all my loyal (and first time) readers. While I still have a Duck Digest left to do this upcoming weekend, Thunderblog is done for the year unless Impact Marble Racing comes out before Dec 30. So with that, I want to wish all of you a happy and healthy holiday season and new year from THUNDERBLOG!



https://redd.it/1pt5ips
@MarbleRacing
The Red Eye Incident: Why It (Almost) Certainly Wasn't Cheating/Rigged

There are two basically distinct categories of theory about the incident: that it was deliberate, or that JMR selectively shot for a race that screwed over Red Eye. I don't think either is true. I think the former is basically impossible and the latter is, while unprovable, highly unlikely.

1) Tampering

JMR did not tamper with Red Eye.

The most obviously untrue idea is that someone from JMR was physically interfering with Red Eye during the race in some way. JMR has studio lighting and everything casts a shadow. It's worked on by grown men. If someone was screwing with Red Eye during the race it would be blindingly obvious. With what we see on the screen it would be impossible. You would see them. This is stupid. Especially stupid if you're suggesting they're controlling glass marbles with... magnets (someone's legit idea). If JMR could use magnets to control glass marbles they would have a Nobel prize in physics.

Other people say maybe Red Eye had glue or some sort of detritus on them which caused them to stick. Also just not feasible. Once Red Eye is freed they go on to race the rest of the track and gain Fastest Lap from Smoggy near the end. A marble that can't roll properly isn't going to get FL. There was nothing wrong with Red Eye once they had their momentum back; ergo, the lack of momentum caused the issue. Moreover, they wouldn't behave like that at the start: moving properly but then experiencing the race issue. They would've just gotten stuck.

Also, you would be able to see if they had glue on them. There's plenty of footage of them in the race.

2) Rigging via Refilming

Disclaimer first that I don't claim to have any special insight into how JMR films and operates beyond what they've shared publicly. However, based on what we know I sincerely doubt that JMR selectively filming and editing races caused this.

For one, pretty much everyone who has worked with JMR in the present or past, even those who left on bad terms, say that Jelle has a lot of integrity and doesn't refilm unless the situation is disastrous (mass DNFs or logistical issues), so the results are always as authentic as possible.

Also, to be blunt, if JMR was happy to rig things via selective refilming, we would not be looking at the season we have now. The O'Rangers and Team Momo, two of JMR's most beloved teams, would not be getting their teeth kicked in by a gentle breeze every race. CCE would not be dominating in a way that makes watching feel dispiriting. JMR could've refilmed as early as Sakura Garden to ensure better parity and more satisfying lead battles. It would certainly make more sense to do that instead of letting RDI build up a massive lead, then reshooting for the one race where a confluence of factors come together and lap them, which would've taken ages.

Also, as mentioned, the races are recorded in advance of the season. AFAIK everything up to Casino Square is already filmed right now. They're not reactionary to audience responses. For all JMR knew, people might've loved the season so far!

On a more reasonable note, some people think the race should have been refilmed as soon as there was an issue out of the gate. I'm mixed on this. I think it's a valid opinion to have- I think Savage Speedway S5 should've been refilmed, so I understand the feeling- but it is also not how Jelle wants to do things with M1 (see last season's accidents), and to some extent you have to respect that. There's also an equally valid opposite concern that refilming to "fix" every aspect of a race could go too far.


3. So, what actually happened?

The tl;dr is that it's difficult to tell. It appears from the footage we have to be a mixture of Red Eye's gate potentially opening slightly differently, Red Eye getting buffeted by 19 other marbles all at once, and Red Eye getting slightly caught on otherwise non-troublesome track elements (the finish line sticker and the wall) and losing all their momentum. Doing a proper analysis is difficult because
it's a pretty tiny amount of footage and there's so much going on. 20 different moving parts are interacting. Whatever happens, Red Eye's momentum drops, and they're stuck in a part of the course where gravity won't move them naturally.

Perhaps most importantly, no other marble should be held directly responsible- I've seen people blame Nereid and Cerulean at points, but in an initial scrum everyone moves within the crowd. Moreover, JMR has only ever penalised an athlete for interfering with another athlete once- ML21 Triathlon- and cases like 2023 Triathlon with Rizzy and Lightning and Sakura Garden S5 with Bumble and Bolt have been thrown out. Clearly the standards are extremely high for interference, so Red Eye is unlikely to have been given any points for that. It also didn't fit the conditions for a safety marble deployment.

I don't think people are stupid to think something might be up, it obviously looks weird and controversial, in the same way as last season's Midnight Bay looked suspect. But looks suspicious is not is suspicious. Let's put our collective thinking hat on. If it had anything to do with it being Red Eye in particular, it was probably just that it was most likely to affect whoever had pole.

RDI is probably going to have two very strong races after this. They still roll fine. CCE will be fine. I enjoyed Orion's Belt- it gave us some fun fights- and I hope we see it (and the Stars) return in the future.

https://redd.it/1ptoas6
@MarbleRacing
Is this a scam?

In November I ordered the sample set of marbles (that included 1 from all 32 teams) plus a set of 10 from my son's favorite team. After a couple weeks of no shipping notificatiom or updates, I emailed them asking for an update. I also wanted to know if they would make it in time for Christmas. Instead of answering my email, a few days later I received a notice that my order had been cancelled and I was refunded. I sent a followup email asking why this happened, and for the 2nd time was just ignored (they never even responded to my first request).
So, I am asking you all. Is this normal? Do they actually sell anything? Why are they so unresponsive? I am pretty aad that my son will not be receiving these marbles for Christmas.

https://redd.it/1pucm6c
@MarbleRacing
Detailed stats: M1S6 GP5 (Greenstone)

Merry Christmas to everyone reading this post! The gift that you're receiving from me this year? It's exactly what you all wanted - a bunch of numbers about a marble race around a duck pond that happened over 10 days ago!

...Not your biggest wish? Hey, at least it's a better gift than coal. Anyway, starting off the post with each competitor's time deltas after each lap!

Time deltas after each lap

The biggest deficit that Yellow Eye had to overcome was 0.04 seconds... the "winner's biggest deficit" stat just gets more and more pointless with each GP, doesn't it? Instead, how about what's actually impressive - the fact that Yeller managed to temporarily shrink a 3.56 lead (after lap 7) all the way down to nothing! More on that later. For now, here's what all of this data looks like on a chart!

Time deltas after each lap, visualized

It almost looks like Yellow Eye's line is completely straight.

This graph also made me realize that Club also managed to go from 2.20 seconds behind Cloudy after lap 8 to being ahead of Cloudy after lap 9 - seems like this GP had more dispersion in the lap times than most other GP's!

Now, how about another chart - each racer's position after each second?

Race standings after every second

Now, here are the miscellaneous race statistics!

Race statistics \(First 5 seconds of the race are excluded from the overtake stats\)

This GP sets the record for the least amount of top 5 overtakes this season! And that's about it.

Next up is a comparison of all 260 lap times in this GP!

All lap times compared \(1st-140th\)

All lap times compared \(141st-260th\)

Meepo's record-setting lap time was actually really impressive in many aspects. One way to emphasize that is by stating that the difference between the fastest and 2nd fastest lap in this GP was a whopping 0.45 seconds. Another way would be to say that Meepo managed to set a sub-24 second time while only three of the 259 lap times even clocked in at a sub-25 second time. Either way, this was a very well-deserved extra point for Meepo in this GP!

Now we can see how Yellow Eye managed to blow a 3.56 second lead to Yeller before re-taking the lead. Between laps 7 and 12, was Yeller particularly fast or was Yellow Eye particularly slow? Well, it's actually a combination of both! In lap 8, Yeller set one of the four sub-25 lap times, while Yellow Eye's lap 8 time slotted in just outside of the top 200, which isn't great but it isn't disasterous. But in lap 11, Yeller's time was just decent (84th out of 260), while Yellow Eye's was the 3rd slowest lap of them all!

Similarly, Club was able to close the 2.20 second gap on Cloudy in lap 9 less as a means of Club having a fantastic lap time (75th out of 260), but more as a means of Cloudy setting the slowest lap time of the GP.

Side note, I just realized that I accidentally marked Starry's lap 7 time, which ties for the 151st fastest lap, as the 51st fastest lap instead. Whoops!

Anyway, moving on to overtake stats!

https://preview.redd.it/dnr44344e29g1.png?width=2144&format=png&auto=webp&s=84e56fe53f25a1f4334ba25de8ba28b5a00dee3c

What is it with the team and racer standings for overtakes always both having the leader be ahead of 2nd place by an equal number of points? After GP1, GP2, GP4 and GP5, the leaders in both standings had a 2-overtake lead,
a 1-overtake lead, a 5-overtake lead and now a 4-overtake lead respectively. Post-GP3 is the only time the two standings weren't being lead by an equal number of points! This is admittedly a bit of a pointless fact, but an unlikely coincidence regardless!

Anyway, Raspberry Racers and Diego are the leaders in the two standings respectively, and Ember had the most overtakes this GP!

Crazy Cat's Eyes are comfortably in last in the team standings for overtakes now, and since you probably already know how GP6 goes for them, well... that's not going to change any time soon.

Moving on to the standings for the position changes from the starting grid!

https://preview.redd.it/a88c1nmjf29g1.png?width=2137&format=png&auto=webp&s=0efc24a10fd6386e9b513e487d6e0129e67c0274

It took 5 GP's, but these standings have finally stopped copying the ML2022 noscript as the Snowballs take the lead in the team standings now, and Snowy also takes the lead in the racers' standings, over both members of the Pinkies in 2nd and 3rd! In fact, if it weren't for Glimmer being tied with Snowstorm in 4th, the top 4 in the racers' standings for position changes would be all of the Snowballs and Pinkies, and that would be the most light-colored top 4 possible!

Now onto time spent in the lead!

https://preview.redd.it/kons2y4dg29g1.png?width=2140&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b6ae096913876e886b9d6180548ece346bf340d

Already nearly a 700-second lead in the team standings for the Crazy Cat's Eyes! And to nobody's surprise, they inherit a 1-2 lead in the racers' standings as well.

After this GP, Midnight Wisps and Savage Speeders are on the board too, with 6 teams being yet to lead a race at any point. Since it's the halfway point now, I was planning on asking what you all would predict to be the amount of teams with 0 seconds by the end of the season, but since I'm behind schedule and GP6 is already out, you'd already know that 3 of those 6 teams (Shining Swarm, Team Momo and Wolfpack) will be on the board after GP6 as well! So, with four GP's to go, Oceanics, Solar Flares and Team Galactic will be the only three teams without any time spend in the lead. Any predictions for how many of those will remain on 0 by the end of the season? Or how about the amount of individual racers on 0 seconds by the end of the season? (22 are on 0 after GP5, 17 will be on 0 after GP6)

Finally, mentions statistics!

https://preview.redd.it/7mxtg5noh29g1.png?width=2140&format=png&auto=webp&s=c26c51839cc4b2df39e13151ef91ea92c1a7359d

Another stat where the Cat's Eyes have a 1-2 in the racers' standings, this time with Yellow Eye being on top after being mentioned a whopping 34 times! But while Yellow Eye and Red Eye keep getting mentioned by name a lot, the team name standings continue to be dominated by the Hazers! Their lead has only grown since they took it after GP2, and this is no exception as they are once again in the top 3 for most mentioned team names in this GP. The team name with the most mentions in this GP, however? That's of course the host team again, that being the Green Ducks! And it wasn't even close.

So that's all the stats for the M1S6 Greenstone GP! Feel free to discuss your thoughts on the stats and/or use them for anything!

https://redd.it/1puct6o
@MarbleRacing
Marbula One S6: Orion's Belt GP Winners
https://redd.it/1pvnhsj
@MarbleRacing
Savage Dumpling Debrief 24: Wash, Rinse, and Repeat

I'm back with the 24th SDD I'm having fun making these but I'm thinking about taking a break from making more after this season of M1 because I have a lot on my plate. Anyways lets see how The Speeders and Momo did in the last two races


Greenstone GP



Roldo Location: By the Bumblebees fan section during Yellow Eye’s Q1 run. By the CEE fans after the race

 

Savage Story: Swifty was selected for the race and I support it. Last time he won the GP from pole position. Swifty had a strong showing in Q1 setting the fastest time at 25 flat. Once again they got off to a slow start and spent most of the race battling for 4th and wound up finishing in 4th

Swifty got off to a bit of a slow start and fell as low as 7th. By lap 7 they worked their way up to 3rd and stayed there for the remainder of the race. As a result the Speeders move up to 6th in the team standings



Dumpling Debrief: Momo was selected and had an excellent qualifying session setting the 6th fastest time in Q1 and locking themselves into Q2 in the process. Q2 was also a good result as after 3 laps they finished 5th. Maybe they can have a good race?

The answer to that question is no, what the heck is happening with them. Once again, they stumbled down the order after a solid Q2 and wound up finishing in 15th, scoring 1 point. Momo said it best on the team radio after the race, something has to be figured out



Orion’s Belt GP 



Roldo Location: Underneath the starting blocks during Q2. By the star, Rigel, before the race start



Lolcow of the event: JMR for constantly changing the noscript of the video. Also for putting in click baity noscripts 

 

Savage Story: Speedy was selected and qualifying went much better than last time. They easily made it to Q2 and had a good race, running 1st at one point. A poor exit from the naked turn killed them as they wound up finishing in P4. Still a great qualifying effort

Another good race from the captain. They were never really in contention for the win as they were in a battle in the lower top 10 for most of the race. I’ll take a 5th place finish and the team is now in 4th place, within striking distance of the podium for the teams championship



Dumpling Debrief: Mimo was selected to run and had an amazing Q1 setting the 2nd fastest time behind Amaya. Q2 didn’t go as well as they would up dropping to the back of the pack and finished 7th

For the most part it was a good race for Mimo as they were in the top 10 for most of the race. Unfortunately they dropped like a rock in the late stages of the race and wound up finishing in 16th. Both Momo and Mimo are out of the running for the individual championship (they can still podium but that would require and act from the marble Gods at this point)



Other News: Yellow Eye picks up career win number 3 after an almost flawless performance at Greenstone. Red Eye had a disastrous start at Orion’s Belt as they came to a dead stop shortly after the gate drop and finished 1 lap down. Smoggy wins at Orion’s belt, closing the gap to CEE. Indie had an amazing race in front of the home crowd finishing 4th. Yellow and Clementin are also eliminated from championship contention (they can still podium but I don’t see that happening)

https://redd.it/1pvvgr8
@MarbleRacing