— 🇮🇱/🇱🇧 NEW: Lebanese media outlet Al-Manar reports that Hezbollah targeted an Israeli Merkava tank near the town of Shamaa. The tank exploded, and the soldiers inside were burnt to death.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇱🇧 🇱🇧 There is optimism in Lebanon regarding a ceasefire based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

Contrary to what some anti-Lebanese media would have you believe, UNSCR 1701 would be a win for the resistance, as it would restore the 'status-quo' from before the war. This status-quo means that Hezbollah will remain active, it will remain armed, and it will remain deployed in all of southern Lebanon along the border, while Israel will be forced to retreat.

In practice, it will not force Hezbollah to withdraw beyond the Litani River, nor would it force Hezbollah to disarm or disband. Yes, technically the resolution states that the only 'armed forces' south of the Litani River should be Lebanese military and UNIFIL (meaning, not Hezbollah), but this will never be implemented because Israel does not implement part of its obligations.

For example, Israel is occupying the Shebaa Farms, which is internationally recognized as Lebanese territory, and resolution 1701 calls upon Israel to withdraw all its forces from Lebanon and for the Lebanese government to exercise full control of its territory. It is very simple: Israel will not adhere to this resolution, so neither will Hezbollah, and it has been like this for over 18 years.

Furthermore, the resolution calls on the disarmament of all 'armed groups' in Lebanon, but the Lebanese constitution does not consider Hezbollah an 'armed group', and the majority of the Lebanese political establishment considers Hezbollah to be exempt from this clause. This is very hard to change, especially with Hezbollah's ally in charge, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

People need to understand that UN Resolution 1701 was active in Lebanon before the October 7th war, it was the Status Quo. It is not something new, it is not an Israeli win, and Hezbollah will not disarm nor will it retreat a single inch.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇮🇱🇱🇧 🇱🇧 TLDR: If there is a ceasefire based on UN Resolution 1701, Israel will fully withdraw from Lebanon, Hezbollah will remain in the South, and the situation returns to pre-October 7th of 2023.

This would mean that Israel was not able to achieve any of its two major objectives: 1. Depleting Hezbollah's missile power and defeating it militarily, 2. Forcing Hezbollah beyond the Litani River.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇱🇧/🇵🇸 'But admin, Hezbollah said they will only accept a ceasefire if there is also a ceasefire in Gaza?' —> Explanation below:

Yes, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly stated this. However, back then, Lebanon was a 'support front' for Gaza, its purpose was to distract and drag away as much Israeli attention from Gaza as possible. Since then, Lebanon has become the main front of the war, the situation is simply not the same.

Back then, Hezbollah was a shield for Gaza. Now, it has become more than a shield for Gaza, it has become a shield for Lebanon and its entire population. The decisions that will be made now are based on a totally different situation and a different operational reality than several months ago.

Hamas is alive, it is fighting, and it will not surrender. The Israelis are unwilling to make any compromises, therefore, there will be no ceasefire in Gaza any time soon. Hezbollah knows this, and they are in constant communication with their brothers in Hamas.

Seperating the two fronts does not mean that one has abandoned the other. For example, if Hamas suddenly signed a ceasefire with Israel tomorrow without including a ceasefire in Lebanon, would anyone call Hamas traitors of Lebanon? No. Because this decision is only upto Hamas and the people of Gaza. And the same is true for Hezbollah.

Both organizations fight and support each other based on their own capacity and while simultaneously keeping responsibilities towards their own populations. I would like to remind you all, Hezbollah did not have to get involved after October 7th, this was done completely out of their own will, and for more than an entire year they fought against the Israelis PURELY to support Palestine and Gaza, no matter what sacrifices were made.

Hezbollah, like so many regional groups and Arab countries, could have simply chosen to sit silently and watch. But they didn't. They took action. And now, they are fighting this decisive battle on their own soil, because they enacted their humanitarian, Arab and Islamic duty to support Gaza on October 7th.

Any decision that Hezbollah will make is in coordination with the Lebanese state, and in coordination with Gaza and the various resistance factions, including Hamas. Trust their judgement, they know best.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇮🇱/🇱🇧 NEW: The temporary ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel has not even been signed or confirmed yet, and Israeli media is already calling it 'a total surrender'

@Middle_East_Spectator