Middle East Spectator — MES – Telegram
Middle East Spectator — MES
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News & Analysis on Middle East

Independent, but not unbiased, striving for a multipolar world. Mainly focused on Iran & Resistance Axis.

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Owner: @Hajj_Khomeini

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People who keep posting 'explosions in Tehran', 'explosions in Esfahan', etc. are literally just reposting from Iranian channels who are hearing AD being activated against drones.

As stated many times in the past few days, the VAST majority of attacks on Iran are not being carried out by Israeli fighter jets, but one-way drones or quadcopters. AD is active almost every night which causes the sounds.

The only areas consistently subject to real and intense Israeli airstrikes are Tabriz, Kermanshah, and occasionallly Tehran.
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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: President Trump announces that the U.S. carried out a 'very successful attack' on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, stating that all U.S. planes are now outside of Iranian airspace

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Middle East Spectator — MES
❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: President Trump announces that the U.S. carried out a 'very successful attack' on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, stating that all U.S. planes are now outside of Iranian airspace @Middle_East_Spectator
If true, we will have to wait for the result.

The Fordow facility is extremely deep, there is a good chance the bombing was not successful.

Will be very curious to see if the GBU-57s made it through ~90 meters of granite + UHP concrete.
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NOTE: Destroying Fordow with one sortie is impossible, even per U.S. assessments.

So unless the U.S. somehow flew multiple sorties without being noticed, or used a large amount of B-2s and dropped dozens of GBU-57s, Fordow is likely intact.

This could just be a very big media show with no result.
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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: President Trump will soon address the nation

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❗️🇮🇷/🇺🇸 NEW: 'Three nuclear sites, including Fordow, had been evacuated some time ago and our enriched uranium stockpile was moved away from these locations, there is no risk of radiation leakage' – IRIB

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Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan are declared sites.

It is very naive to assume Iran has no undeclared nuclear sites.
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Legit question do any of you guys actually believe Iran would keep its uranium in sites that were known for months to be prime targets of an attack?
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❗️🇮🇷/🇺🇸 BREAKING: Iran confirms the attack on Fordow, says 'parts of the facility' were subject to attack by the enemy – there is no statement on any damage yet

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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 If Fordow were confirmed to be destroyed, what are the implications on Iran's nuclear program?

Despite the fact that Fordow is Iran's deepest underground nuclear site, its loss would not significantly impact the nuclear program, beyond simply slowing down the pace of enrichment.

Assuming that Iran has moved its stockpile of enriched uranium to other secure locations, the main setback due to the bombing of Fordow would be a temporary reduction in enrichment speed, as most of the centrifuges would be destroyed / inoperable.

However, Natanz actually contained way more centrifuges, which technically makes it a worse loss than Fordow, despite being less well-defended.

In any case: Iran can do with its current stockpile of uranium what it wants. It can enrich the material to 90% (weapons-grade) at one or several smaller undeclared sites throughout the country, and assemble a nuclear weapon if desired.

Even if the strike on Fordow is successul, Iran has an established industry of centrifuge manufacturing, and can quickly rebuild and replace the centrifuges, as long as the facility is not completely destroyed.

If, however, the facility is completely destroyed, then Iran will have to set up new enrichment centers, which can take from 6 months to a year.

There is one added bonus: Iran recently announced it would open up a third enrichment site. As of now, NOBODY knows where this site is located, and the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that centrifuges are already being installed at this new location.

In short: Enrichment will not stop, but the speed will be delayed. As for the existing stockpile of uranium, it will likely be fully safe somewhere.

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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Preliminary reports in Iranian media confirm that the entry and exit tunnels of Fordow were attacked

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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 President Trump: 'I don't want to do more strikes on Iran, I'm not planning on that'

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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: The U.S. dropped 6 GBU-57 bunker buster bombs on Fordow, and launched Tomahawk cruise missiles at Natanz and Esfahan – Fox

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❗️As of now there is only confirmation that the tunnels were targeted. No info about any damage at Fordow underground facility as of yet. But this assessment can change.
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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: 'No irreversible damage at Fordow' – IRIB

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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: The Americans only targeted the entry and exit tunnels of the Fordow complex – Al Mayadeen

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An official statement from Iran's Atomic Energy Agency is expected.
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❗️🇮🇷/🇺🇸 Iranian Atomic Energy Agency full statement:

'Following the brutal attacks of the Zionist enemy over the past few days, at dawn today, the country's nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan were attacked by the enemies of Islamic Iran in a brutal act that contradicts international laws, especially the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

This act that contradicts international law was unfortunately carried out in amid the shadow of indifference and even the support of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

The American enemy, through cyberspace, the President of this country has taken responsibility for the attack on the aforementioned sites, which are under the continuous supervision of the IAEA based on the Safeguards Agreement and the NPT.

It is expected that the international community, while condemning the lawlessness based on the rules of the jungle, will support Iran in preserving its legitimate rights.

The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran assures the great Iranian nation that despite the evil conspiracies of its enemies, with the efforts of thousands of its revolutionary and motivated scientists and experts, it will never allow the development of this national nuclear industry, which is the result of the blood of nuclear martyrs, to be stopped.

This organization has put the necessary measures, including legal proceedings, on its agenda to defend the rights of the noble Iranian nation.'

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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: 'If peace does not come quickly, we will go after other targets in Iran, with precision, speed and skill' – President Trump

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❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇱 President Trump: 'God bless Israel, and God bless the United States'

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🇺🇸 The Situations Room at the time of the attack

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