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— 🇮🇷 Iran's Presidential Election is in 34 days, here's what you need to know:

The political scene in Iran is extremely complicated, but when simplified, it basically consists of two main flanks: Conservatives and Moderates.

The Conservatives are politicians that fit squarely in the camp of the revolution. They stand 100% behind Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and they are generally considered more loyal to the revolution's original values. They put emphasis on keeping Iran an Islamic, strong and independent nation, with a foreign policy that could be dubbed 'Iran-first', trying not to rely on outside powers. Most politicians who belong in this camp opposed the 2015 Nuclear Deal with the US, for example.

The Moderates, or sometimes called 'Reformists', take a more liberal approach to interpreting the values of the Islamic Revolution. They are still ostensibly in favour of the Islamic Republic and its ideals, but wish to modernize and reorganize the country in a way that they feel fits the current era. Most of them support less strict rules on Hijab, returning to negotiations with the United States, and neoliberal market economics.

Some Moderate candidates are secretly anti-Islamic Republic, but hide behind their close relations with genuine pro-IR people to conceal their true views. They know they cannot voice their opposition publicly, because no one would vote for them, and they would get disqualified.

Iran's last Moderate President, Hassan Rouhani (President from 2013-2021) caused a major decline in economic development. By forming the Nuclear Deal with the U.S. in 2015, he put the Iranian economy at the mercy of foreign powers and investments. Khamenei, who was against the Nuclear Deal from the start, warned that the United States would never keep their end of the agreement.

In 2017, he was proven right, and the U.S. unilaterally pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, despite Iran's compliance, which was backed up by the IAEA. Inflation in Iran skyrocketed, and the economy experienced its worst state in 45 years.

All of this led to the Conservative President Ebrahim Raeesi winning a 72% landslide victory in the 2021 election. Turnout hit a record low, because reformists had lost faith in their candidates due to past failures to deliver on their election promises. As a result, the vast majority of those who voted were hardline IR supporters.

If President Raeesi ran for office again in 2025, he would most likely have won a second term. But due to his unforeseen martyrdom, others will have to stand up. Until now, we don't know the candidates, but I fully expect the Conservatives to win another landslide victory, as the Reformist voter base has become idle, and I doubt they will put up any meaningful candidates, unless they decide to put forward Javad Zarif, Iran's Foreign Minister from 2013-2021, who enjoys considerable support among Moderates.

Lastly, the dynamics of Iranian politics have changed quite a lot. Back in the 2000's and 2010's, if someone was anti-Islamic Republic, they would simply vote for a Reformist / Moderate candidate, to show their opposition to the regime. This was dangerous, because they actually had a way of changing the country's direction. Unlike what some people think, the President in Iran matters a lot.

Now, the people who are anti-IR simply don't vote at all, or cast blank protest votes, because they say 'all Iranian politicians are the same'. This is extremely dumb, they are shooting themselves in the foot, because if they all united to vote for a Reformist they could shake the country up pretty bad. But it is good for the Islamic Republic and its supporters, so I am quite happy they reached this conclusion, that they excluded themselves from the democratic process.

Conclusion: Anti-IR Iranians likely won't vote at all, a small number of them will vote for the Moderate candidate, but the Conservative candidate will likely win another landslide victory like Raeesi in 2021, due to overwhelming participation of the pro-IR and religious masses.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— NOTE: I simplified this extremely for normies, so yes there are a lot of details and nuances I do not mention.

TLDR: Conservatives good, Moderates bad.

— 🇮🇱/🇵🇸 BREAKING: The Al-Qassam Brigade killed several IDF soldiers in a tunnel ambush and captured a new hostage for the first time since October 7

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇮🇷/🇸🇩 BREAKING: Iran and Sudan agree to fully normalize relations, and to reopen their embassies in Tehran and Khartoum

@Middle_East_Spectator

Disclaimer: We denounce violence and terrorism of any kind, anything shared is purely for journalistic purposes.

— 🇮🇷 NEW: The total number of mourners for Martyr Raeesi nationwide was 7.5 million

- Tabriz: 1 Million
- Tehran: 1.7 Million
- Qom: 1.3 Million
- Mashhad: 3 Million
- Rey: At least 300 thousand
- Birjand: More than 100 thousand

It was the third largest funeral in Iranian history, only behind Imam Khomeini and Martyr Qasem Soleimani.

@Middle_East_Spectator

Wikipedia be like:

Western Media are frustrated: 'Israel's new Northern border'

Over 60.000 Israelis have been displaced in the North since Hezbollah enacted its zone of fire.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇮🇱 Over 7 months into the war, and Israel has accomplished none of its objectives:

- Dozens of Israeli hostages are still held in Gaza by Hamas. In fact, new hostages are being taken.

- Hundreds of Israeli soldiers have been killed, and thousands have been injured.

- Hezbollah launches strikes inside Israeli territory on a daily basis, and has created an uninhabitable no-go zone for Israelis in the North.

- The military leadership of Hamas is intact, Al-Qassam is still fighting.

- Ismael Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, Muhammad Deif and Abu Obaidah are all still alive.

- Iran launched the largest missile attack in history on Israel, and Israel did not respond.

- The ICC is issued arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant for crimes against humanity.

- The ICC is about to rule that Israel is comitting genocide.

- Several countries newly recognized the State of Palestine.

- Approval for Netanyahu is at an all time low, and members of the Israeli War Cabinet are threatening each other to resign.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇮🇷 NEW: Dr. Saeed Jalili will run for the Presidency – Fars News

Jalili is a Conservative politician, best known for being Iran's Former Chief Nuclear Negotiator. He is currently the Leader's Representative in the Supreme National Security Councul.

@Middle_East_Spectator

I will write a short biography / fact sheet about each of the candidates.

Who knows, maybe my prediction will come true.

Dr. Jalili is a very capable and honest candidate.

— 🇮🇷 WATCH: Iran's 'Khalij-e-Fars' (Persian Gulf) anti-ship ballistic missile - HD Quality

@Middle_East_Spectator