Once every few days, a new investigative journalist picks a random Somali healthcare site or "learning" institution, only to chip away the paint to find rampant fraud on the inside. The latest endeavor involved Youtuber Nick Shirley finding a random building in Minneapolis with a misspelled sign, quite aptly labeled as the "Quality Learing Center". Ironic and humorous mistake aside, approximately five minutes of investigation revealed that this facility is a shell corporation tied up with the Autism fraud scam that came to light a few weeks ago. This one facility has received $4 million in state funding, and is simply a shell company with no actual clients, continuing the trend of dozens of similar organizations being uncovered in Minneapolis under identical circumstances.

This latest spotlight focus also lines up with what federal agencies have had to say on the Somali fraud situation in general. A few days ago, several more individuals were indicted on charges related to the earlier Autism and Housing Stabilization Services (HSS) fraud schemes. After the indictments were announced, First Assistant US Attorney for Minnesota Joe Thompson stated that of the $18 billion in federal funding allocated for the entire state's Medicaid program, roughly half has been outright stolen by Somalis via fraud. If this figure is accurate, this would make this situation one of the largest instances of fraud ever committed in the United States that did not involve big banks.

For context, the Colonial Bank fraud scheme (which was one of the largest scams that came to light during the 2008 financial crisis) only involved about $3 billion in securities fraud. In this case, the city of Minneapolis alone is looking at roughly triple that amount of fraud, all of which has been conducted simply by Somalis signing up for government benefits fraudulently. No stock market manipulation, no lying about mortgage data, no men in suits being interviewed on Bloomberg about the failure of an entire financial ecosystem...all of this is simply rampant fraud at the individual level to the point that nearly the entire GDP of Somalia itself (roughly $11 billion) is being supported solely by the taxpayers of Minnesota (and all US taxpayers at large). As if this wasn't serious enough to convey the scale of what $9 Billion (with a "B") worth of fraud looks like, a couple of years ago a think tank estimated that North Korea's entire ballistic missile program has cost the DPRK almost $2 billion over the past 50 years (adjusted for the nature of a different financial system skewing the data).

Roughly 80,000 Somalis in one single American city have stolen almost 4 times what it cost North Korea to build nuclear weapons and ICBMs over half a century.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z December 29, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP QUIETLY CONFIRMS LAND-BASED STRIKES HAVE BEGUN IN VENEZUELA. CHINA LAUNCHES LARGE-SCALE MILITARY EXERCISES NEAR TAIWAN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Far East: This morning China kicked off their large-scale yearly military exercise in the waters surrounding Taiwan. This year's exercise has been noscriptd "Justice Mission 2025" and focuses on combined arms warfare techniques that will be necessary for the invasion of Taiwan. In the graphics and AI-generated content provided on the exercises by China, the focus for the drills is openly to deter a Taiwanese bid for independence.

Analyst Comment: As usual, all eyes are on the drills this year to assess whether or not China will be capable of taking Taiwan when the time comes. Traditionally, China never announces their military drills ahead of time. In this case, approximately one hour elapsed between the official announcement of the drills, and the first aircraft detected on Taiwanese radar. Somewhat interestingly this year, China has leaned into camouflage as a concept. Ironically, China directly stole the idea of "urban camouflage" from Taiwan, which has taken the form of Chinese units camouflaging ICBM launchers to appear to be construction cranes...a tactic Taiwan has been using for many years. Due to the nature of the expected urban combat of Taipei, Taiwan has had to come up with unique ways for military equipment to survive as long as possible in the event that war kicks off. Turns out, China has also replicated much of this urban camouflage doctrine, which indirectly confirms that China is expecting missiles to be landing within their homeland as well.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: This afternoon, President Trump received Prime Minister Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago residence to conduct talks on the Middle East and other various topics. While this visit was quite standard (as these visits have become fairly regular over the past year), several very important items of note took place during the reception.

As Prime Minister Netanyahu was welcomed, a brief press conference was called as is common for dignitary visits. As journalists were present asking questions, the topic of conversation turned to Venezuela. During this off-the-cuff press briefing, President Trump casually stated that the United States had conducted at least one land-based strike within Venezuela. President Trump stated that an "implementation area" (sic) was struck, which he described as being a dock area where boats were being loaded with drugs.

This leaves more questions than answers, and when pressed by journalists about this rather important conflict, President Trump stated that he did not want to comment on the matter any further. As this short 30 second clip is all we have to go on, there's not much that can be discerned at present, however it's almost certain that ground strikes have already quietly started throughout the region.

Throughout this short presser, various other topics came up as well. President Trump reiterated the commitment to continue strikes in Iran, which is not surprising but still notable as it confirms that this conflict is certainly far from over. President Trump also confirmed that he took an unscheduled call from President Putin regarding an event that occurred this morning. In Moscow, the Kremlin reported a Ukrainian drone strike being conducted at an undisclosed location which targeted one of Putin's personal residences. Ukraine has denied this attack outright, and has stated that the whole affair has been fabricated from the ground up.

During this morning's ad hoc press briefing in Florida, President Trump stated that the phone call had taken place, and that the US stopped the sale of Tomahawks to Ukraine for this reason (presumably to prevent them from using these munitions to assassinate Putin). Granted, these minor details probably don't matter that much to the average American taxpayer, but it does shed light on the relationships between all parties during this war, as well as the high-stakes nature of this conflict and very tenuous peace talks.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z December 30, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SAUDI ARABIA BOMBS EMIRATI WEAPONS SHIPMENT IN YEMEN. RAIL DELAYS SPREAD AROUND EUROPE AFTER INCIDENT IN CHANNEL TUNNEL. CROWBAR ATTACK REPORTED AT BRITISH HOSPITAL.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Yemen: Overnight tensions escalated sharply between several nations as the conflict in Yemen threatens to become more serious. Colonel Turki Al-Malki, the Saudi Air Force Colonel that serves as the spokesman for the Saudi mission to Yemen stated that two vessels departed the UAE without permission this morning, and sailed without turning their AIS transponders on before arriving in Yemen. Onboard these vessels were weapons and armored vehicles that the UAE was allegedly trying to smuggle to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a faction that threatens the Saudi border.

As a result, Saudi Arabia conducted a few airstrikes within the Yemeni port of Mukalla, targeting the combat vehicles to be used by the STC. After the strikes, Saudi Arabia also called for the UAE to leave Yemen entirely. A few hours after this morning's scuffle, the UAE announced a cessation of their already-reduced mission in Yemen, and are withdrawing all public support for the STC, per Saudi demands.

United Kingdom: This morning an Afghan migrant was arrested for conducting an attack at the Newton-Le-Willows Hospital in Merseyside, a small village halfway between Liverpool and Manchester. The attack began after the man was denied an appointment after entering the lobby with a crowbar in hand. After being told there were no appointments, the man began attacking staff with the crowbar. 5x people were wounded during the attack.

Europe: This morning a "major disruption" was reported in the Channel Tunnel, halting train services between London and Paris. The cause of the disruption was two-fold, resulting from several power lines being downed in one tunnel, and a train stuck in the other tunnel, blocking service both ways under the English Channel.

Analyst Comment: This sounds like it wouldn't be that big of a deal, but due to the importance of this one tunnel (and the nature of rail logistics), passenger train services were halted from Amsterdam to Paris, all during one of the most heavily-trafficked travels season of the year. Delays have been reported all day, and EuroStar has recommended travelers to avoid trains which use cross-Channel routes until repairs are made.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The situation in Yemen has always been a tangled web of factions, and thing's aren't as simple as "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". This latest development is no different, and throughout the day the statements from all parties reflect more of the plot of a soap opera than traditional diplomacy.

The STC is a separatist movement in Yemen that is opposing the Houthi's, but also opposing the Saudis. The Saudis know that if the STC were to win the Civil War in Yemen and actually dominate the Houthis, the STC would probably sidestep the formal Yemeni government and succeed in their goal of creating a new state (what they call South Arabia), which the STC has been working toward for some time. The UAE provides materiel support to the STC for several reasons. For one, the UAE and the Saudis have bad-blood between them on cultural grounds, but both the Emirates and the Saudi royal family also don't want the Houthi's to control most of Yemen, thus the reason for both nations teaming up to form the security coalition in Yemen.

However, the Saudis also don't want the Houthi's adversaries (the STC) to get too much control either...which the UAE *does* want so as to apply pressure to the Saudis because the UAE and Yemen don't share a land border, so they don't care.

In short, the Saudis and Emirates don't actually like each other, but work together to control the dozens of factions at play in Yemen, and this morning, the UAE overstepped their bounds, so the Saudi's bombed their arms shipment.

The Emirates have argued that that technically the armored vehicles that they mailed to the Saudi's enemies are not "arms" so it doesn't count as being an arms shipment. In return, the Saudis have pointed out that there were also conex boxes full of explosives onboard the vessels, and re-stating that any threats to their national security will be dealt with swiftly, et al, etcetera, and so on.

Daytime TV drama aside, squabbling between factions as large as the Saudi royal family and the seven territories that collectively form the "United" part of the United Arab Emirates usually isn't great for stability in the Middle East, especially since major offensives are currently underway throughout Yemen between several different factions. Whether it's directly related to the drama between the Saudis and the Emirates is not entirely clear, but right now there's a whole lot of shooting going on in the city of Mukalla, the same city struck earlier this morning. Though it was probably planned some time ago, various factions (including STC) are trying to capitalize on the squabbling between the big kids on the playground, so as to improve their own tactical positions on the battlefield. Most Middle Eastern nations have picked up on this as well, and the Qataris and Kuwaitis have both issued statements of solidarity regarding the deterioration of the security situation in Yemen over the past 12 hours or so.

All in all, a busy day for the Middle East, and things aren't over just yet.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z December 31, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FINLAND SEIZES SHIP AFTER UNDERSEA CABLES CUT IN GULF OF FINLAND. SOMALI FRAUD SCANDAL CONTINUES TO GROW NATIONWIDE AS RESISTANCE EFFORTS BEGIN IN MINNEAPOLIS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Finland: Authorities seized a vessel that was suspected of deliberately dragging anchor over undersea cables in the Gulf of Finland. This morning, anomalies were detected by Elisa, a Finnish telecom provider which operates several undersea cables providing internet connectivity between Finland and Estonia. Shortly after the disturbance was noted, Finnish Naval forces dispatched a helicopter to patrol the area, which resulted in the discovery of the M/V *FITBURG* dragging her anchor while steaming through the area that the cable outage was reported in. Finland immediately boarded and seized the vessel, which remains in Finnish custody as the investigation into the anchor dragging incident continues.

-HomeFront-

Minnesota: Significant resistance has been noted among the Somali community of Minneapolis as the fraud situation becomes more public. A few Somali TikTokers harassing random citizens have been reported, and a general hostile tone has been noted throughout the city. Due to the rise of independent journalists investigating random businesses, Somali enclaves are now calling 911 on any non-Somali they see at their front door, and making the false claim that the person has a gun in order to elicit a police response.

Washington D.C. - In response to the scale of the fraud on display in Minnesota, the federal Department of Health and Human Services has announced a halt of all Administration for Children and Families (ACF) payments made to child care facilities in the state, until each child care facility can prove they actually exist and provide services.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Minneapolis, the saga continues as the Nick Shirley story continues to gain traction. Officially, the State of Minnesota has stated that the "Learing Center" was actually shut down before Shirley's report. However, after this rhetoric was issued, the entire Somali community of the local area came out to make a grand show of the "Learing Center" actually being open. They brought random children to the facility to "prove" that the center was open, and made a big production out of the whole affair. Meanwhile, state-level officials have been on TV over the past few days urging the public that the facility has actually been closed for some time.

Some Somalis, however, do understand the stakes in Minneapolis. Overnight, a break-in was reported at the Nokomis DayCare Center on Bloomington Avenue. The owners of the facility called an urgent press conference to address the situation, which several local media outlets flocked to this morning. The owners stated that the miscreants which conducted the daring heist only stole very specific items...all of the child enrollment records held by the daycare, as well as the checkbook that held all the financial data for the facility.

The official story by the daycare owners is that thieves broke in during the night...to steal paperwork. To even the casual observer, this is very clearly a "dog ate my homework" level of effort to conceal some sort of criminal enterprise.

Additionally, at this same venue, a hole was discovered in the wall under an electrical panel. In the world of tradecraft, this is a classic sign....the remnants of a cash hide site. It is extremely common for cash obtained through illegal means to be stored inside a wall for safekeeping. When it comes time for the criminal to fly to coop, they break the drywall, scoop out the cash, and run for it. While this is completely speculative in this case, it's probably one of the easiest assessments to make as this tactic is widely used throughout the third world (though usually the cash is encased in concrete to protect it from rodents). Even the most basic investigator would come to have a very clear theory about what happened here: A shady business was broken into during the night, all their paperwork was stolen and there's a hole in the drywall, but nothing else taken....this was clearly an operation being rolled up, and whomever was using this one business for illicit purposes is probably long gone.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 1, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE STATES OF UNREST CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. MAJOR FIRE RESULTS IN MASS CASUALTIES AT SWISS NIGHTCLUB. NEW YEAR'S RIOTS STRIKE EUROPE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Switzerland: Last night a significant structure fire was reported at a New Year's celebration event hosted by a nightclub in Crans-Montana. A fire broke out at the Le Constellation nightclub, which consumed most of the facility. Approximately 40x fatalities have been reported due to the fire, along with dozens of others suffering severe burns. Most of these casualties are assessed to have resulted from the challenges in evacuating the structure.

Netherlands: Overnight a major fire was reported at the historic Vondelkerk Church in Amsterdam. The fire completely destroyed most of the church, which was serving mostly as office space due to a decline in the parish population over the years.

Analyst Comment: The cause of the fire has officially not been released, however local authorities have stated that the fire is under investigation, which is itself and indicator that there is something to investigate.

Europe: New Year's festivities resulted in many riots around the continent. Various Moroccan enclaves in Belgium were observed rioting overnight, many of which involved parading around Brussels with weapons in the open, and generally trying to destroy things with fireworks. Actual explosives and incendiary devices were also used throughout the night in Belgium, as a few firebombings took place in Antwerp. France reported around 1,173x vehicles set on fire around the nation, and about 500x arrests were made by riot police throughout the night. Arson attacks were also reported throughout the Netherlands, with migrants attacking Dutch police vehicles with Molotovs.

Middle East: The situation in Iran is deteriorating as protests continue to grow throughout the nation. Protests began in Tehran a few days ago, and have spread to several other major cities around the country.

Analyst Comment: As with any crisis in the region, there is a significant amount of deception and propaganda afoot. However, based on the videos that are making it out of the country, the protests are indeed real. The point of debate is how significant these demonstrations are. The Israeli's have claimed what they always do, that the Ayatollah has fled the country in disgrace, and revolution is underway. The Iranians have likewise done what they always do as well, and not even acknowledged what's happening at all. The truth is probably somewhere between these two extremes, and only time will tell how significant these protests become over the next few weeks.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Right now it looks like the nightclub fire/explosion in Switzerland was probably not a terrorist attack, as the start of the fire was highly documented. A considerable amount of fireworks were noted at this location, many of which were being set off in a risky manner, such as the fireworks which were ignited indoors and held very close to extremely flammable soundproofing tiles. Shortly after the investigation into the fire was launched, Swiss authorities stated that they think it was an accident.

Witnesses that took videos of the aftermath might also shed some light on why there was an exceptionally high casualty count for such a small venue. Videos of the fire (which are too graphic for mixed company) confirm that many people were trapped inside the building, and unable to escape. Only one staircase served as an egress method for the basement, where the fire first began. Additionally, once the fire broke out, many people did not evacuate, either out of ignorance or inebriation. As such, many people only thought about evacuating after the fire was already consuming the entire structure, and it was impossible to use the staircase to escape.

This is an exceptionally disturbing reminder for witnesses of incidents that will occur in the future: Put the phone down, and help. The situation will be highly documented for TikTok later, and when a facility is on fire, it is a good idea to evacuate as soon as possible. Some bystanders did just that. A local media group found a bystander identified as Gianni, a university student from Geneva. Per his testimony, not many people helped rescue others, but due to his Civil Defense training he was able to rally at least 3-4 others to help coordinate rescue efforts before emergency personnel arrived. While this is single-source reporting from one witness, it does make sense in the context of local responders simply being overwhelmed with the scale of this disaster. As such this is another reminder of the importance of being prepared and acting with both speed and deliberation during a disaster.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 2, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROTESTS EXPAND IN TEHRAN. TERROR ATTACK HALTED IN NORTH CAROLINA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Iran: Overnight demonstrations continued throughout the country, increasing in size and scale. Yesterday evening President Trump weighed in on the protests, directly stating that the United States will intervene militarily if Iranian forces begin shooting protesters en masse.

Analyst Comment: In the Middle East, a "happening" may potentially be on the horizon. So far, the Iranian government has seen worse protests over the years, but the situation is deteriorating rapidly and in classic regional fashion things are getting out of hand in some cities, particularly in locations where a protester gets shot, or some other high-profile event occurs.

From the West, regime change is clearly being encouraged, as it has been for a very long time. Considering Netanyahu's recent visit to DC, and the general diplomatic strategy at play here, it's absolutely certain that both Israel and the US are making another big push for regime change again, so we'll have to see how it works out this time around.

-HomeFront-

North Carolina: This morning the DoJ announced the arrest of one individual who was allegedly planning to carry out a New Year's terror attack. Christian Sturdivant was arrested after conveying attack plans to an undercover agent earlier in December. The suspect pledged allegiance to what he thought was ISIS, and wanted to conduct an Islamic stabbing attack at a local area grocery store.

The suspect originally came "on the radar" of the FBI back in 2022, when he made contact with actual ISIS fighters on social media, who encouraged him to conduct home invasions and kill people with hammers. The FBI made contact with him at that time, however he was 14 years old and no charges were filed as he allegedly underwent psychological treatment.

Last month, after turning 18, Sturdivant returned to social media, making threats of his own, which prompted the FBI to intervene again to attempt to institutionalize him, which failed after a local magistrate judge refused to involuntarily commit him, and the FBI moved forward with their criminal case resulting in his arrest.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Based on the documentation that has been provided on the details of the case, this seems less like a major terrorist takedown, and more like a habitually violent idiot getting rolled up after he posted stupid stuff online.

The suspect's shockingly low IQ can be discerned from the press release, which indicate that the FBI was able to get pretty much every bit of evidence physically possible: He made violent threats online, which were followed up by messages from two undercover FBI agents, which in turn prompted the suspect to confess his entire attack plans in depth, up to and including a voice recording confession.

Nevertheless, this context is not to downplay this individual's actions...idiots can still be very dangerous. He did indeed express his violent desires and took steps to work toward these goals, as he has been working on for several years now. And considering that he was arrested in Mint Hill (a suburb of the infamous city of Charlotte), this will be important to remember in the likely chance that he gets let out of custody (again).

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1130Z January 3, 2026//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: UNITED STATES BEGINS WAR IN VENEZUELA. MADURO CAPTURED IN OVERNIGHT RAID.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Caribbean: The war in Venezuela has begun. Overnight, the United States carried out a Helicopter Assault Force (HAF) raid to capture Maduro and his family, which President Trump states was a success. Maduro is currently being flown out of the country, and large-scale airstrikes are being carried out in Caracas. No American casualties have been reported as a result of the operation, and the forces that launched the raid are already out of Venezuelan airspace.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Based on statements made by Maduro's political opposition, he cut a deal. The raid was part of the egress plan to get him out of the country, and he did so willingly. The kinetic nature of the operation was to enable Marudo to escape without his own people killing him, and so far the operation seems to be a success. Whether or not any of this is true is anyone's guess at the moment, but that's the story.

Concerning battle damage in Caracas, substantial strikes have taken place. Once the sun rises a more thorough examination of what happened can take place, but right now it looks like most of the military capability in Caracas has been taken offline, with heavy strikes hitting Fort Tiuna, as well as La Carlota Airbase.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/hRFx4gtYYxM

//The Wire//2300Z January 5, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: USA TAKES CONTROL OF VENEZUELA, EFFORTS TO EMPLACE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT CONTINUE. SOMALI FRAUD SCANDAL SPREADS NATIONWIDE. ECOTERRORISTS SET FIRE TO BRIDGE IN BERLIN RESULTING IN ELECTRICAL BLACKOUTS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Germany: Over the weekend insurgents conducted a sabotage operation in Berlin, which targeted electrical infrastructure. The far-left terrorist group Vulkangruppe claimed credit for the attack that took the form of arson attacks on electrical pylons carrying power to much of southwest Berlin. The main attack took the form of arsonists setting fire to a bridge carrying electrical cables across the canal to the west of the power plant in Lichterfelde.

Analyst Comment: This attack was coordinated and timed to coincide with a cold snap that brought extremely cold weather throughout the region. The insurgents were trying to cause as much harm as possible, so they conducted the attack at a time when they knew that cold-weather casualties would be maximized. Local officials have stated that it might be as late as Thursday before repairs can be fully completed, due to the severity of the attack.

-HomeFront-

Minnesota: The Somali Fraud saga continues as dozens of independent investigations and lines of analytical effort result in even more fraud coming to light by the hour. This afternoon, Governor Tim Walz made the announcement that he is dropping out of the gubernatorial race due to the scandal.

Analyst Comment: Minnesota is no longer the only state in which major investigative efforts are underway. After the initial story broke in Minneapolis, others started looking around in their areas, only to find exactly the same kind of fraud...wholesale theft of taxpayer money, laundered through nonexistent daycares and other welfare programs. There are currently reports of widespread Somali fraud in Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Ohio, and Maine. Additional fraud activities are also being investigated in most other states, not just within the Somali community.

Ohio: Overnight a security incident was reported at the home of VP Vance. One assailant, who has been identified as William DeFoor, was able to get close enough to Vance's residence to break one of the exterior windows with a hammer, before being detained and arrested.

Analyst Comment: Considering the extreme threats to key leaders within in the US at this time, this reaction was probably expected. However, this incident was too close for comfort. One lunatic with a hammer getting this close proves that a terrorist with an S-Vest could get just as close, and the outcome would be very different.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Venezuela, the situation right now is still very dynamic. Though the American operation to capture Maduro was a one-time mission, the situation has not over yet. Maduro is out of the fight, but right now the United States has, in effect, taken control of Venezuela.

Maduro's allies, Generals, and decades of infrastructure (and criminal enterprise) does not simply evaporate overnight, and the removal of the head of the snake doesn't mean that the body doesn't also exist. In many ways it's business as usual in Venezuela, and in other ways significant changes are underway. President Trump has stated that the short term goal is to run Venezuela for a time, installing a puppet government until a transition to a more stable government can take place. Whether or not this will happen can be debated, but this is the plan for now.

Regarding Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricant (POL) facilities, President Trump stated that American oil companies will be running Venezuela's oil industry (and exporting that oil back to the United States).

Concerning additional strikes, President Trump stated that a wider conflict may be necessary, but has alluded to the raid to snatch Maduro being a one-and-done operation for now. American presence in the region is still staggering, as it has been for many months, so if things pop off domestically in Venezuela (or if operations expand to other South American nations), the United States has enough resources in theater to handle any resistance groups that may pop up now that a very substantial destabilization operation has reached it's zenith in Venezuela.

On that front, the story of Maduro's generals (and his government at large) is less clear. Obviously, his opposition is working to set up shop to control all domestic agencies and organziations throughout the nation. On the military front, the situation varies; most regular forces (such as the uniformed infantry, marines, etc.) have either fled or are carrying on as usual, so it's a mixed bag. Right now, it is only the irregular forces which have shown concern that their boss was given an all-expenses-paid red eye flight to New York. The Colectivos, the armed civilian militias which mostly served as Maduro's strongarm in the cities, have shown the most loyalty to their departed leader, and have activated themselves throughout Caracas to kidnap/kill anybody who they think were informants for the operation, but so far these efforts have been confined to roving bands of thugs rather than any sort of serious uprising.

The more organized paramilitary organizations haven't been interested in any more serious uprising efforts either, however these will be the groups to keep an eye on if things get squirrely over the next few months. The Bolivarian National Militia is a step above the street thugs of the Colectivos because they have more training and slightly more organization than unorganized gangs, but their leadership appears to be engaging in the timeless third-world tradition of absconding with duffel bags full of cash the very moment their boss gets yanked. The Special Action Forces (FAES, also generally known as the secret police kill squads) also haven't been heard from in a while. Speculating a bit, it would make sense for many FAES members to quietly disappear into the night...these guys were responsible for many brutal killings and doing Maduro's dirty work, so it's very likely they would be hanged at some point now that Maduro is gone.

Varying stories have been reported at the higher ranks of the more traditionally-uniformed military services in Venezuela...most Generals have stayed in power for now and are simply trying to figure out what to do next. Clearly, the American CIA has a very large presence in Venezuela, and have already lined up Maduro's successors. Amongst the Venezuelans, they are also probably trying to figure out which of them the CIA has picked to still have a job in a week's time, and which of them is due a black bag over the head. In South America, a LinkedIn rejection email might arrive in an unmarked van, so the leadership which hasn't already fled is probably waiting to see how all of this works out. Venezuela will have to be run by Venezuelans, so many probably think that there will always be a deal to be made.

It's Monday, Venezuela just started a whole new week. And it's very likely that this week will be filled with a lot of changes down south. Most people within the US government who would have had the real-world experience of toppling a South American nation has either died or retired by now, so only time will tell if this traditional American pastime will work out in the long run.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 6, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH IN VENEZUELA, FALSE-ALARM RESULTED IN MASS GUNFIRE LAST NIGHT IN CARACAS. POWER OUTAGE IN BERLIN CONTINUES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Venezuela: Overnight significant gunfire was reported throughout Caracas as Venezuelan forces reacted to the detection of a drone near the Presidential Palace compound. After some time, the gunfire died down as it became clear that anti-aircraft units were spooked by one of their own drones.

Analyst Comment: Clearly the AAA gun batteries the Venezuelans have set up are a bit touchy at the moment, which is most clearly illustrated by them shooting enough rounds into the night sky to equal the GDP of Burundi. Nevertheless, now is a suboptimal time for both migratory birds and absconding Generals, as anything with wings is liable to be shot at over Caracas.

Germany: The power outages continue for roughly 45,000 customers throughout Berlin, following the terrorist attack conducted by the Vulkangruppe insurgent group on Saturday. Most customers are coming back online as repairs are being made, however it's been slow going due to the single-point-of-failure attack site causing issues further down the line.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Due to the length of the power outage, combined with the extremely cold temperatures, many complications have come about. Sewage pumping stations being offline for this many days has resulted in waste backflowing downhill into many people's homes. Retirement centers and senior care facilities, both holding the elderly, have been trying to do their best to manage with the scale of the attack. Hospitals and other public services have been running on generator power for some time, however this has been challenging to maintain over such a long period of time. Attacks like this becoming more common (or at least continuing as they have in the past) is crucial to remember; insurgent groups will strike when maximum effectiveness can be achieved, which often times coincides with bad weather or other incidents.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 7, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CIVIL UNREST DEVELOPING IN MINNEAPOLIS FOLLOWING ICE-INVOLVED SHOOTING. TANKER WAR CONTINUES AS UNITED STATES CAPTURES TWO TANKERS IN ATLANTIC.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Atlantic Ocean: This morning the United States seized two oil tankers at the center of the efforts to disrupt the Venezuelan oil trade and halt the flow of crude out of the country. The M/T *SOPHIA* and the M/T *BELLA 1* were boarded and seized this morning, and the US Coast Guard is currently escorting both vessels back to American ports.

Analyst Comment: As a reminder the *BELLA 1* is the same tanker that tried to run the blockade to seek safety in Venezuela two weeks ago. The *SOFIA* is also known as the "*M SOPHIA*" with International Maritime Organization (IMO) number 9289477. There is another supertanker with the same name flagged out of Greece, but the vessel that was seized this morning is the ghost-fleet tanker that has been riding dirty with no registration for several years.

-HomeFront-

Minnesota: A general state of unrest has been building throughout Minneapolis on several fronts. As independent journalists and content streamers alike have descended on the city to expose the Somali fraud, various assaults have been reported.

Analyst Comment: It's only a matter of time before an independent journalist gets killed or seriously wounded. Somali communities are rallying together, and they are more than willing to use violence to protect the billions of dollars that have been stolen.

This morning a small riot was also reported in Minneapolis following an ICE-involved shooting at the corner of Portland Avenue and E 34th Street. The shooting took place after a woman attempted to use her vehicle to ram an ICE agent, who shot and killed her, ending the incident.

Analyst Comment: This shooting was highly documented by the ANTIFA activists that were already at the shooting location before it took place. One video wasn't really clear due to the angle it was taken from, however another video taken by a homeowner confirms that the woman rammed the agent with her car before the first shot was fired. But right now the truth is a moot point as demonstrators have already gathered at City Hall to protest the incident. Mayor Frey has already ordered ICE to leave the city, which they are not going to do, but this statement sets conditions for amplifying tensions even further on the political front.

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Analyst Comments: Regarding the capture of the tankers in the North Atlantic, more context might help understand how this saga has developed.

Two weeks ago, the *BELLA 1* was bound for Venezuela, to take on a cargo of crude oil eventually destined from Iran. Due to American operations in the Caribbean Sea, many illicit oil tankers were caught in limbo, weighing the decision of what to do. The *BELLA 1* was originally inbound to Venezuela when the American blockade formed, and her crew originally decided to run the blockade, before the US Coast Guard began shadowing her and initially tried to board her. This initial boarding operation was called off due to safety reasons as her crew was conducting erratic movements to attempt to prevent a boarding. At this point, the Coast Guard backed off and continued to shadow her, waiting for more substantial military resources to arrive on scene. From there, the *BELLA 1* abandoned her goal of running the blockade, and attempted to make a run for it, generally sailing away from Venezuela and changing her name mid-cruise to *MARINERA*. After a few days, the crew onboard came up with the plan to appeal to the other superpower in the region...Russia. The crew started painting Russian flags on the hull, and began flying the flag of Russia in an attempt to bring Russia into the mix, and hopefully deter an American boarding. This effort did not work, as the vessel was boarded and seized this morning, despite Russian naval presence and the Kremlin stating that they had positioned a submarine to "protect" the supertanker.

Back in Venezuela, the capture of Maduro also put a damper on the fate of several other tankers which were in a similar boat, trying to figure out what to do. Shortly after Maduro was snatched, several tankers that were seeking safety in Venezuelan harbors made their decision, and decided to make a run for it. Departing the country with their AIS transponders spoofing their position to be elsewhere, several tankers departed port, some of which decided to copy the *BELLA 1*'s trick...by claiming to be Russian ships. The M/T *VERONICA III*, M/T *VESNA*, M/T *BERTHA* and the M/T *AQUILA II* all departed port immediately after the Maduro raid, and are all steaming toward Russia in a convoy. Roughly a dozen other tankers have been observed using similar tactics to cut ties with Venezuela, or sneak out of port under a falsified registration. Separately, the M/T *SOPHIA* also departed port at some point and was seized this morning. Not much is known about the *SOPHIA* however it's very likely that she was trying to escape in a similar fashion as well, as she appeared to be headed to China before she turned her transponder off and went dark.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROTESTS CONTINUE AS ANOTHER VEHICLE RAMMING AND SHOOTING INCIDENT INVOLVING FEDERAL AGENTS OCCURS OVERNIGHT. EVACUATIONS UNDERWAY IN KIEV AS RUSSIA STRIKES CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE SERVING THE CITY.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Ukraine: Overnight, major strikes were reported throughout the country, as Russian forces conduct large-scale missile strikes on multiple fronts. Russia conducted an Oreshnik IRBM strike on the Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske Natural Gas storage facility in western Ukraine. Large-scale drone strikes were also reported throughout Kiev, which damaged infrastructure including the city's water supply.

Analyst Comment: These strikes were the largest to hit Ukraine during the war so far. At the moment, battle damage reports have not been made public, however the use of an Oreshnik (which has only been used once so far during this war) would have undoubtedly crippled the gas storage facility, which serves most of Ukraine, including Kiev. The mayor of Kiev has urged citizens to evacuate, due to the inability for utility services to provide heating for most of the city.

Caribbean: This morning the United States seized another oil tanker attempting to flee Venezuela. The M/T *OLINA* was seized off the coast of Trinidad, as part of the widening operation to target Ghost Fleet vessels smuggling oil out of Venezuela. This brings the total number to 5x tankers seized so far.

-HomeFront-

Oregon: Yesterday evening, a state of civil unrest broke out after a shooting was reported involving Customs and Border Patrol. CBP agents conducted a traffic stop of a known TdA member and his wife on Southeast Main Street, in the vicinity of the Adventist Health campus. During the traffic stop, the TdA member attempted to ram officers with his vehicle, prompting the shooting. From there, the suspects egressed from the area to the east, where they were found by Portland PD officers on East Burnside St. with gunshot wounds. In the hours after the shooting, riots broke out throughout the city, and carried on throughout the night.

Utah: Yesterday evening an ambush was reported in Ogden, which originated from a domestic dispute. Local authorities initially responded to reports of shots fired at a single-family residential home on E 5800 South, in a subdivision south of the intersection of Hwy 89 and Crestwood Dr. When authorities arrived, the suspect began firing at police by engaging them from within the home with small arms. A barricaded-shooter situation developed, and after a few hours the suspect was detained by SWAT and identified as James Joseph Rios.

Concerning casualties, 2x neighbors were wounded by the shooter, during the initial engagement that prompted the police response.

Analyst Comment: What initially prompted this incident is unclear; at the moment it looks like Rios simply decided to start shooting at his neighbors either randomly, or due to a mental health incident. However, the investigation is still underway, so more details may come to light over the next few days.

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Analyst Comments: In Minneapolis, the situation is deteriorating on multiple fronts. Following the ICE-involved shooting a few days ago, ANTIFA forces have moved into the area to establish an "Autonomous Grieving Zone" at the site of the shooting involving Renee Good. Portland Avenue from E 34th Street to 33rd Street was blocked, with barricade obstacles preventing people from freely migrating through the area. Early this morning, locals reported that police moved in to clear the obstructions from the street, however a significant agitator presence remains throughout the area.

Around the city, atmospherics aren't great: rioters continue to cause civil unrest, and open and clear threats to federal agents have become routine. These threats aren't just screaming obscenities, or other generally nasty language...very elaborate and deliberate threats are being made. In one case a woman was heard shouting her plans to use Federal employment databases to hunt down and murder ICE agents when Trump leaves office, because their people will be in charge and have the historic payroll data of who was employed during this period of time. These very specific threats are not idle hyperbole, and convey the seriousness and deliberation that is already being undertaken by far-left groups to murder anyone enforcing US immigration law.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 Link: https://youtu.be/4DToNzR2I3g