This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/vz-a7j6RKoQ

//The Wire//2300Z February 9, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TERROR ATTACKS AND CASH VAN HEISTS STRIKE ITALY. SUSPECT IN POSSIBLE BIOWEAPONS FACILITY IN NEVADA RELEASED BY JUDGE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Italy: Several kinetic events have been reported throughout the nation as the region hosts the Olympic games.

In the region of Puglia, a cash transit van was ambushed on State Road 613 (SS613), which involved thieves boxing in a cash van, forcing the vehicle to halt on the highway near a bridge just north of Torchiarolo. Once the vehicle was halted, one team of thieves stopped oncoming traffic while another team conducted an explosive breach of the van. A total of 6x gunmen took part in the attack, and injuries were reported as a result of the explosion and subsequent gunfire, however no fatalities have been reported so far.

Other than daring heists on the roadway, more deliberate terror attacks have also taken place over the past few days. Three separate attacks were reported on Italian rail lines, all targeting main lines being used heavily by participants of the Olympics. One switching and control station was set on fire in Pesaro and communication/switching cables were cut on one rail line in Bologna. Adjacent to this site, an IED was discovered emplaced on an undisclosed track (which was found and rendered safe before it detonated).

Analyst Comment: Be it gangs of thieves, or the ecoterrorist groups that normally conduct attacks on rail lines, Italy will probably be host to a continuation of kinetic activity, as long as the Olympics bring increased focus (and tourism) to the nation.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Nevada, several more developments have come to light regarding the Chinese-linked biolab (and suspected biological weapons research facility) that was discovered in Las Vegas last week. Over the weekend Ori Solomon, the Israeli citizen who was serving as the property manager of the Vegas facility, was released from jail on the order of Judge Elayna Youchah. As such, it's quite likely that Solomon will be on a plane very soon, that is, if he isn't setting up another bioweapon facility right now. Per the court documents and media reports, Solomon is being portrayed as the innocent Property Manager of the residence, who had nothing to do with any of this. However, this is probably not true. After this cell was discovered and the local ringleader (David He) was arrested, Solomon stepped into a more active role in managing the Vegas biolab. This is strongly indicated by the fact that David He called Solomon from prison 467 times after his arrest. Solomon's job as a property manager gave him both the access and the justification to be at this house daily, checking on the biological experiments that were ongoing at this site. This access also granted him a reason to be in the general neighborhood itself, which is not just residential...several churches, schools, and community centers are all located with a few hundred yards of the residence where highly infections diseases were illegally being stored in containment conditions so poor that the cleaning staff got deathly sick.

Concerning others that are involved in this case, the illegal biolab itself was being run out of a residential address that was also serving as an AirBnB facility. Around the time of the raid, customers were staying at this residence, not knowing that a biological weapons facility was being run out of the garage (which was usually kept locked). None of these people have been quarantined, despite confirmed reports of biological materials leaking from this facility, and making innocent bystanders ill. It is also not clear as to if any of the AirBnB customers that stayed at this site over the past year have been contacted to determine if they have unwittingly been infected.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 10, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POLITICAL CANDIDATE IN MINNESOTA DROPS OUT OF RACE AFTER FAMILY TRAGEDY. POLITICAL CANDIDATE IN FLORIDA TARGETED IN ARSON ATTACK. TWO ARRESTS MADE FOLLOWING CASH VAN HEIST IN ITALY. SURVEILLANCE FOOTAGE RELEASED REGARDING HIGH PROFILE KIDNAPPING CASE IN ARIZONA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Italy: Two arrests have been made in conjunction with Monday's cash van heist on State Road 613. Details of the arrests have not been made public, as four other thieves are being sought as the investigation continues.

Analyst Comment: Otherwise the investigation into the explosive devices planted on Italian rail lines has continued, with an anarchist group claiming credit for the devices, and posting about the targeting efforts on their blog.

Russia: Several arrests have been made in conjunction with the recent assassination attempt of a Kremlin intel chief, which resulted in LTG Vladimir Alexeyev being shot multiple times at his apartment last week. So far, two suspects (a father and son team) have been arrested, along with another suspect who was detained in the UAE over the weekend.

-HomeFront-

Minnesota: Jeff Johnson, a candidate in the race for Governor of the state, has suspended his campaign after a personal family tragedy took place over the weekend. Johnson's daughter (Hallie Tobler) was murdered by her husband on Saturday night at their apartment in St. Cloud. Due to this extremely brutal murder, her father has suspended his campaign.

Analyst Comment: Right now it's not clear as to if this brutal murder had anything to do with targeting Johnson's campaign. After all this could be a horrific example of domestic incidents that are far too common throughout the United States. However, this is still a sensitive political issue to be aware of, considering the overall tensions throughout the state.

Florida: Over the weekend, a separate gubernatorial candidate was targeted more directly, as the lawn outside James Fishback's home was set on fire by an arsonist. The fire was allegedly set when Fishback was not at his residence, and was discovered as he returned home. So far no suspects have been identified regarding this case.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In Arizona, the FBI has released surveillance footage regarding the abduction of Nancy Guthrie, who was reported missing after being dropped off at her home on the evening of January 31st. The FBI has released video footage and still images of the suspected abductor, and are requesting the public's help in identifying the suspect. This footage was recovered from the Nest security camera at the residence, which was allegedly unavailable during the initial phases of the investigation due to the Guthrie family not buying a subnoscription plan for this particular device. However, due to Nest (and other similar WiFi camera companies) partnering with Law Enforcement to provide federal access to all cameras, this imagery was recoverable since this footage is being stored in a database somewhere, regardless of whether or not a customer is paying (or even knowledgeable of this storage).

Concerning other surveillance footage which might have captured the suspect, the Catalina Foothills community is a spiderweb of surface roads, which appear at first to offer unlimited avenues for insertion/extraction to the target residence. However, following the roads in an outward spoke search pattern, originating at the site of the kidnapping, reveals that nearly all of these roads intersect with a main highway, which at some point intersects a traffic camera, or storefront security cameras. Of course, a malign actor only needs one route to pull off a crime, so "nearly all" is not good enough for investigative purposes. But, this does help narrow down the potential escape routes for the criminal, if it is assessed that the suspect and the victim actually left the community at all.

Federal authorities have already demonstrated that they can pull footage from cameras that don't have a subnoscription package, and most of the roads that offer good escape paths transit directly in front of residences that actually have personally-owned security cameras. As such, it's highly unlikely that the assailant simply disappeared into the night without a trace. Someone, somewhere has the suspect (and probably the victim too) on camera, and federal authorities almost certainly already have this footage.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 11, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN CANADA. MAJOR AIRSPACE CLOSURES REPORTED ALONG USA/MEX BORDER.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Canada: Yesterday afternoon a mass shooting was reported in Tumbler Ridge, a small town in British Columbia. The attack began with the assailant murdering two people inside a private residence (at least one of which was the suspect's mother). After these initial murders, the suspect maneuvered to Tumbler Ridge Secondary School, where he conducted the mass shooting, which ended after the suspect took his own life. Concerning casualties, a total of 9x fatalities have been reported so far, 6x fatalities at the school, 2x at the residence, and the shooter himself. Roughly 25x others were also wounded during the attack.

Analyst Comment: Regarding the motive, this shooting appears to be the standard transgender mass shooting. As the shooting was ongoing, authorities referred to the shooter as a "woman in a dress", and used the term "gunperson" to describe the suspect. After some time, the suspect was identified as Jesse van Rootselaar, who was a male transitioning to female.

-HomeFront-

Texas: Substantial airspace closures have been reported throughout the region, which have been issued and retracted. Early this morning two Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs) were issued for two areas along the Mexican border. NOTAM 6/2233 was issued just before midnight yesterday evening, which grounded all aircraft at El Paso International Airport for a period of ten days; no flights, no exceptions. A similar flight restriction (TFR 6/2234) was also imposed for an area to the west of El Paso, along the Mexican border.

A few hours after the El Paso Airport NOTAM was issued, it was abruptly retracted. NOTAM 6/2234 (the area along the border adjacent to El Paso) remains in effect as before, with this airspace sector being closed for the next ten days.

This afternoon, the White House stated that this was all related to an imminent threat involving Cartel drone activity, and aircraft were grounded due to counter-UAS measures being deployed, which might have inadvertently targeted civilian aircraft.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The airspace closure of El Paso alone is very interesting, as the type of airspace closure is extremely rare due to the location, timing, and scope of the closure. As a result, there are a few wildly differing possibilities as to what actually happened.

In short, last night the FAA dropped a no-fly-zone akin to what was issued on 9/11 directly over the El Paso airport. The wording of the NOTAMs (or rather, the lack thereof) is also highly interesting as no concessions were made for any sort of exception, at all. This was a hard-line "we will shoot you down if you take off" kind of no-fly-zone. No medical aircraft, no police helicopters, absolutely nothing allowed to be in the air, not even military aircraft were granted an exemption.

As to what the truth actually is, it's anyone's guess and probably a blend of all of the theories expressed so far. It's certainly possible that the official story is true, and that Cartel drones breached US airspace, an various emergency measures were employed to "discombobulate" the drones. It's also possible that this was an overreaction brought on by personality clashes in El Paso, and not an actual threat. Most seriously, it's equally possible that the threat was not the standard Cartel recon drones, but something vastly more dangerous, which presented a direct threat to civilian aircraft.

Cartel drones have been operating in the border region for many years, both for the purposes of smuggling drugs across the border, but also for conducting reconnaissance of US Border Patrol positions (though these recon flights don't normally take place at night). These flights have prompted nearly-daily warnings and temporary groundstops, but not the "break glass in case of war" airspace closure that was issued last night. So whatever happened was an anomaly that has not been made public at the present time. More broadly, this was a serious situation all around, and if this is an early indication and warning of an intensification of Cartel activity as winter comes to a close, incidents like this will probably increase over the next few months.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 12, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: LARGE-SCALE WASTEWATER DISASTER CONTINUES IN MARYLAND. NETANYAHU ARRIVES IN D.C. FOR TALKS. HIGH-PROFILE STABBING REPORTED AT HIGH SCHOOL IN LONDON.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

United Kingdom: Social tensions remain high after another high-profile stabbing was reported at a school in London. One assailant (who has not been named due to his age), conducted a stabbing attack at Kingsbury High School in London on Tuesday. Two students were wounded during the attack, and the assailant was detained at the scene.

Analyst Comment: Continuing standard practice regarding incidents like this, very few details have been published; it's surprising that the incident has been acknowledged by authorities at all, so we have to take what we can get. Witnesses to the crime state that the attacker was a former student who entered the school to conduct an attack due to a personal grievance with another student.

-HomeFront-

Maryland/NOVA: Fallout continues from a local sewage spill that took place in Montgomery County last month, which started as a minor infrastructure problem, but has rapidly become a major environmental disaster as the true scale has become known. On January 19th, one of the pipes that comprise the Potomac Interceptor wastewater system ruptured, causing a major leak. As of this morning, this spill officially became the largest wastewater spill in American history, with an estimated 250 million-1 billion gallons of raw sewage flowing directly into the Potomac River.

Analyst Comment: Almost three weeks after the leak began, it is still flowing due to the large-scale nature of how to handle wastewater when a 72 inch pipe is taken offline. Emergency pumps have been functioning since January 24th, and additional pumping stations are being set up to re-reroute waste. However, overflows still occur due to weather events and other factors which mean that the leak is only mostly-contained, and not fully contained. Monitoring for E. Coli continues around the clock, and the levels of bacteria throughout the entire river are a few thousand times the standard levels. Repairs to completely stop the leak are expected to be in place within six weeks.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Also in Washington, yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived for his seventh State visit of President Trump's term. So far the only thing of note to come from the talks is the potential deployment of a second Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to the Middle East, to support strikes in Iran. The decision on this has not been released to the public yet, but timeline-wise if a second aircraft carrier is assessed to be needed for this campaign, it would take at least a couple of weeks to arrive in theater. Concerning airstrikes, any bombing campaign is unlikely to take place until Netanyahu returns home to coordinate the strikes from their home turf. This evening, the talks with President Trump concluded, and Netanyahu is currently flying back to Israel.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 13, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PENTAGON REDEPLOYS FORD CSG TO MIDDLE EAST. ARSON ATTACK TARGETING ALLEGED POTENTIAL ICE FACILITY REPORTED IN KANSAS CITY. STABBING ATTACK STRIKES PARIS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

France: This evening a stabbing attack was reported in Paris, at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier near the Arc de Triomphe. One of the soldiers in the Honor Guard was wounded during the attack, as the assailant attempted to target the crowd participating in the daily flame lighting ceremony. Armed police shot the attacker several times, ending the attack.

Analyst Comment: Local French sources claim that is not the first time that this individual has stabbed a police officer. The assailant has been identified as Brahim Bahrir, a 47 year old male who was at the center of a different terror attack, in which he stabbed two police officers in an identical manner back in 2012. He was released from prison for this attack some time ago, with today's terrorism attempt being the second major stabbing attack he has committed.

Middle East: Following PM Netanyahu's departure last night, the White House announced the repositioning of the USS *GERALD FORD* CSG from the Caribbean to the Middle East.

Analyst Comment: The *FORD* has already been deployed for about 8 months, so either she's getting an extension or she'll pull in to Norfolk for refit/resupply before heading to the Arabian Sea. Either way, it will take about two weeks for this repositioning to take place, at the absolute earliest.

Caribbean: Yesterday a collision was reported between two US Navy vessels conducting resupply at sea. The USS *TRUXTON* (DDG 103) collided with the USNS *SUPPLY* (T-AOE-6) while attempting to carry out Underway Replenishment (UNREP) operations on Wednesday. Two sailors were injured as a result of the collision, both of which are in stable condition.

-HomeFront-

Missouri: An arson attack was captured on film yesterday afternoon, which involved a woman deliberately setting fire to a commercial structure that was reportedly on the books to be sold to the federal government for the creation of an ICE detention facility. The fire was put out by the fire department, and the assailant remains at large.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Regarding the Kansas City arson attack, a lot of unsubstantiated information is circulating. And as luck would have it, a news van happened to be set up on scene, with a camera pointed at the attack site, perfectly framed to capture the arson attack...before it began. This same news affiliate is the same source that claims that the attack was a success, and that the company is no longer planning to sell the warehouse to ICE, due to the acts of the terrorist.

It is true that the federal government is trying to contract out empty warehouses around the US to serve as detention facilities, but it's not clear as to if this exact facility was/is included in these efforts. At present, it's just as likely that this abandoned warehouse was selected on a whim via unsubstantiated rumors, and probably circulated among the Kansas City Rapid Response chat groups. These far-left cells tend to take the tiniest bit of information and run with it, without any verification whatsoever.

This case is a good example of how truth does not actually matter to far-left activist groups, and unsubstantiated rumors in a group chat can get somebody killed. From a risk-management perspective, when there is no criteria for selecting targets in warfare, no one is safe. This is what makes these groups so dangerous; deadly and horrific attacks can be conducted on random buildings (or random people), with no warning at all. And just like in Minneapolis, these groups know that they can't actually win an engagement against ICE, so they go after the soft-targets in a city, targeting the civilian populace just to punish them for not rising up against ICE themselves.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/ElqCCjeKxow

//The Wire//2300Z February 16, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONCERNS ARE GROWING FOR TWO CAPTURED AMERICAN PILOTS DETAINED IN WEST AFRICA. UNITED STATES SEIZES OIL TANKER IN INDIAN OCEAN.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Indian Ocean: Over the weekend the United States seized the M/T *VERONICA III*, one of the tankers which fled Venezuela in the wake of the fall of the Maduro government. The vessel was boarded and seized due to carrying oil in violation of American sanctions.

West Africa: Concerns are growing concerning the safety of Two American pilots who were illegally detained by authorities in Guinea almost 6 weeks ago. On December 29th, Brad Schlenker and Fabio Espinal Nunez were piloting a private charter flight when they diverted to Guinea to refuel. They were given permission to land, and upon taxiing to the terminal, were greeted by armed soldiers. Both pilots have been detained since the incident.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As of right now, the issue of the pilots in Guinea is still in the realm of diplomacy, as the families of the captives have been working with the Embassy to secure the pilots' release. Since this line of effort has not yielded any progress, the families have gone to the media with the hope that a media blitz will pressure the White House to speed along their release.

All of this can probably be handled with a phone call, but just in case a more active response is called for, an understanding of the terrain might be helpful.

So far, many details remain unknown as the initial circumstances of the detention are hard to verify. Flying for a regional charter airline in Africa is one of the most dangerous jobs a pilot can take, simply due to the corruption that is rampant throughout the continent. As such, it was an odd choice to choose to land in this country in particular, which has led many to assess that there is more to the story than meets the eye. The status of the original charter itself is also not known; some reports state that this flight was a ferry flight moving an aircraft that was recently sold (i.e. no passengers on board), whereas other reports state that they were flying a Brazilian family to Dubai.

In any case, taking the story at face-value, the pilots diverted to Guinea for fuel and upon landing probably did not have enough cash on hand for the required bribes. Verbal permission to land is not good enough in Africa, and every stage along the way involves greasing palms, which always demand more. In this case, these pilots are currently serving as a bargaining chip, having chosen to land in Guinea at the worst possible time...during a state of military coup. General Mamadi Doumbouya is currently running the country after "winning" the election one day before these pilots landed. Doumbouya was the leader of the 2021 coup that overthrew the previous government, and over the past few years, the beleaguered nation has been host to the standard West African experience of poverty and violence while under military rule.

Now that he's made his warlord status official, his government is probably looking to increase his standing. Nothing pads the ego of an African warlord quite like snatching a couple of Americans so as to get the attention of the United States (the mere dialog with the US alone will increase the legitimacy of his government).

However, Doumbouya might find that his little stunt gets the wrong kind of attention from the United States if the pilots are not released immediately. Whatever the pilots did (if anything) to get detained is not a good enough excuse to avoid American involvement; the United States has proven over the past year that the US military will bomb a country back to the stone age for nothing more than a Klondike bar, so Doumbouya would be wise to correct this issue immediately. Local media reports (such that they are) indicate that the courts have actually declined to press charges against the pilots as they have done nothing wrong, but the military council running the administration of the country has refused to release them.

On the ground, the situation is not great. Schlenker and Nunez have been allowed access to a phone semi-regularly, and have been making contact with family after their detention. State Department officials have also reportedly visited the prisoners in person, confirming that they are still alive. The exact facility that the pilots are being held in is not known, however they have stated that they are located in Conakry, so they are probably being held somewhere inside Conakry Central Prison (also known as Maison Centrale in French), which is the only known detention facility in the area. It is possible the pilots are being held elsewhere, however historically most leaders of African nations tend to keep a close eye on their political prisoners, and Guinea's history is no different, with the main prison being located a short distance from the Presidential Residences. This is important as if this is where the pilots are being held, they probably will not survive much longer.

This facility is nestled in the heart of heavily urbanized terrain at the southwestern end of the peninsula which contains Guinea's capital city of Conakry. As far as prisons go, this facility is a standard example of the typical African prison, and conditions inside the compound are horrific at best and non-survivable at worst due to extremely harsh living conditions brought on by overcrowding, as well as the brutality of the guards who frequently torture prisoners.

The terrain surrounding the compound is dense urban city, with little open ground. The target compound itself is encircled by slums to the North and East, and protected by a mud-brick wall approximately 8 feet tall, and 1-2 feet thick. Inside the perimeter sits a scattered array of one-story buildings, most of which are of cinderblock construction. Otherwise, defenses throughout the peninsula are sparse, with most weapons systems being centered around the standard Technical with a mounted crew-served weapon. It is likely that no MANPADs or other more sophisticated air defenses are located in the area. Most military forces are scattered sporadically, with the main bulk of somewhat-organized forces being concentrated at the Airport 7 miles to the northeast.

All in all, if Doumbouya wants to take his chances, he's certainly welcome to do so, however it would be wise for him to seek a diplomatic solution immediately.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 17, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN RHODE ISLAND. IRANIAN FORCES CONTINUE NAVAL DRILLS AS AMERICAN FORCES BEGIN MASS MOVEMENT INTO MIDDLE EAST.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Caribbean: American forces continue airstrikes on narco vessels, with three fastboats sunk overnight in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. Two strikes were carried out in the Pacific, and the third in the Caribbean. A total of 11x EKIA were reported as a result of the strikes.

Middle East: This morning Iranian forces continued naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. These drills, dubbed the "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz" exercise by the IRGC-N, has involved various show-of-force targeting drills involving various naval platforms. These exercises involved the brief closure of a section of the Strait for a few hours today, as live-fire drills were conducted throughout the day.

Europe: This morning, the mass movement of US military aircraft was observed throughout the continent as American forces begin the surge of forces into the Middle East. Overnight, multiple flights of F-16's, F-22's, F-15's and F-35's were all observed maneuvering toward the region, totaling several dozen aircraft. Command and Control aircraft were observed staging as well, alongside several Airborne Early Warning platforms.

-HomeFront-

Rhode Island: Yesterday afternoon a mass shooting was reported at a skating rink in Pawtucket as one assailant began firing in the stands at a high school hockey game. The shooter has been identified as Robert Dorgan, who was targeting his ex-wife and children during the attack. Concerning casualties, two fatalities have been reported, along with multiple wounded.

Analyst Comment: This appears to be a domestic incident, in which a transgender individual murdered his family in the middle of a crowded venue. Based on the shooter's social media pages, this individual was very obviously mentally ill and had made threats openly for some time, including one post which directly threatened violence one day before the shooting.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: So far, the mass mobilization of equipment to CENTCOM looks like the Real McCoy, once again. As of this afternoon, this is the largest migration of military aircraft into CENTCOM in many years, and differs from the last time the US struck Iranian facilities in that fighter aircraft are moving into theater much moreso than the previous one-and-done, single-sortie mission that was Operation MIDNIGHT HAMMER. Of course, moving aircraft is comparatively cheap when it comes to the manipulation that these actions provide, which in this case is very obviously intended to pressure the Iranians into accepting whatever deal is put before them. This afternoon Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi departed Geneva, with the past two weeks of talks more or less being a stalemate. As must always be noted, the forces that are being staged right now can always turn around and go home without a shot being fired. However, even taking this into account (and adding in the wider geopolitical context), it's very likely that cratering Iranian facilities is on the menu once more.

Probably the best form of warning for the Iranians is the minor detail that the main aircraft carrier in the region (the USS *ABRAHAM LINCOLN*) has not transited the Strait of Hormuz. This foreboding detail is likely due to long-standing doctrine; any serious actions taken in Iran will require more maneuverability (and range) than the Gulf can provide. As a result, a common rule of thumb has been that the United States holding position in the Arabian Sea (without transiting the Strait) is an indicator that the US is serious. If the US just wanted to posture, the Navy would have sailed through the Strait just to flex on the Iranians brown-water navy, and since a CSG has been on station for weeks without doing so, this is something to take note of as the clock ticks down.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 18, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SURGE OF AMERICAN MILITARY FORCES CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. IRANIAN FORCES DIG IN BY REINFORCING KEY SITES AND MILITARY FACILITIES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The surge of American forces continued overnight, with a total of 6x E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft completing their movement into theater overnight. Early this morning, multiple flights of KC-135 refueling tankers crossed the Atlantic in flights of 5x aircraft at a time, landing at various bases along the way before making their way into CENTCOM. So far, roughly 25x tankers have flown into CENTCOM over the past few days, along with many other support and logistics aircraft. This morning, the USS *GERALD FORD* was detected on AIS receivers off the coast of Morocco, having made the Atlantic crossing sooner than expected.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Timeline wise, if the US intends to kick things off on Friday (after the stock markets close) or early Saturday morning, everything is lining up to support strikes taking place this weekend at the earliest. However, lunar illumination peaks to over 90% next weekend, which would provide an optimal window for various nocturnal activities.

On the diplomatic front, all sides are putting up a false-front, with both the United States and Iranian diplomats stating rather sheepishly that no agreements have been reached, but the talks have so far been positive. However, a nation does not move nearly a quarter of her Air Force (and a third of her Navy) overnight if things are going well. The cessation of talks (even on positive terms) reflects the reality of the situation, which the Iranians have been preparing for. IRGC forces have been fortifying sites around the country for weeks, with signs of late-stage preparations being made. At the Isfahan Nuclear Site, for example, all of the tunnel entrances have been covered with dirt. These fortification efforts were conducted sometime between January 22th and February 13th, when commercial satellite imagery passes were conducted. This aligns with other fortification efforts observed around the country, most of which are last-ditch efforts that are only usually undertaken in sheer desperation, in the days before strikes begin. So if all of this is one giant PSYOP to apply pressure for negotiations, it might be working a little too well...the Iranians seem to be very convinced that they will be bombed no matter what, so it's likely that they have no reason to negotiate at all at this point. Especially since the latest round of talks has concluded, with no future date yet scheduled for the next round of talks.

Consequently, even though all sides have made statements of polite indifference toward peace talks, actions speak louder than words, and all sides are moving into the final stages of a major military campaign at breakneck pace.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 19, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DOMESTIC TERROR ATTACKS CONTINUE IN UNITED STATES. IRANIAN DRILLS CONTINUE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. VEHICLE EXPLOSION REPORTED OUTSIDE AMERICAN EMBASSY IN ARMENIA. FLASHBANG DEVICE DEPLOYED AT POLLING PLACE IN NORTH CAROLINA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Armenia: This afternoon an explosion involving a vehicle was reported outside the US Embassy in Yerevan. As of this report, no details have clarified if the explosion was a deliberate VBIED attack, or some other more benign accident, however the investigation is ongoing.

Middle East: The military drills in the Strait of Hormuz have continued as before, largely without incident. Several long-range missile launches have been conducted as part of the exercises, and maritime traffic through the Strait has remained fairly steady despite growing concerns among maritime shipping companies. Various European leaders have continued to express increasing urgency that their citizens should leave Iran as soon as possible, as evacuation will not be an option for much longer.

Analyst Comment: Concerning the logistics of Americans who may wish to evacuate Iranian territory before things get hot, air travel (if it's even available) is probably the least-safe option at this point. Officially, the US State Department recommends land-border crossings with Armenia and Turkey. The Armenian border crossing in Agarak is still open, and is by far the most reliable means of exiting the country as a visa is not needed for American citizens fleeing Iran. The Turkish border crossings are more numerous, but coordination with the Turkish Embassy is needed to obtain a visa before Americans will be allowed in. Concerning this morning's vehicle explosion in Armenia, it's likely that security measures will be enhanced for a while, so getting out sooner rather than later would be ideal, for anyone still stuck in Iran.

-HomeFront-

Florida: As nationwide walkout protests involving students continue, children continue to be hit by vehicles as they conduct anti-ICE protests on busy roadways. This morning a student from Palm Beach Lakes Community High School in West Palm Beach was critically injured after stepping into the street during a protest. The condition of the student is not known at this time.

Idaho: Early this morning just after midnight, a vehicle ramming attack was reported at a medical facility in Meridian. Local authorities state that one assailant stole an ambulance from the bay at St. Luke's Meridian Medical Center, which he then used to ram into the Portico West administration building on the corner of Eagle and Franklin. After ramming through the plate-glass entryway, the suspect then abandoned the ambulance, and retrieved multiple cans of gasoline that he had cached in the nearby vegetation before the attack. After obtaining the gas cans, the suspect doused the building with the gasoline, but due to the rapid arrival of authorities, egressed from the scene before he was able to ignite the accelerant. The suspect remains at large, and locals are advised to contact authorities with any information that might assist in the investigation. However, no physical denoscription, clothing, or surveillance footage of the suspect has been provided at this time.

Analyst Comment: Considering the multiple weapons used during the attack (the gasoline and the vehicle itself) this meets current criteria for being described as a Complex Coordinated Attack (CCA). As such, this incident is being treated as a deliberate terror attack while the investigation is ongoing.

North Carolina: Yesterday evening a possible explosive attack was conducted outside a polling place in Moore County. Aberdeen police state that a loud bang was heard yesterday evening outside the Parks and Rec building on Sandhills Blvd. that was serving as an early voting site. Poll workers subsequently investigated the cause of the sound, which resulted in the discovery of a spent flashbang device (though whether or not the device was improvised or commercially produced was not disclosed). Police state that they think someone threw the device at the venue from a moving vehicle passing by on the highway outside the structure.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As most headlines remain focused on the Middle East, terrorism concerns remain paramount here at home. Attacks or incidents involving polling places are always noteworthy due to the political goals that are often the motivation for such activities. However, the North Carolina case is extra noteworthy due to the location of Aberdeen and Southern Pines in general being saturated with important people affiliated with the Special Warfare community. Whether it is mysterious Chechens sneaking through the woods, or electrical substations being shot at in areas that are not easy to find...whenever current events start getting serious around the world, things in Moore County start getting weird. Regarding this case, commercial flashbang devices are not easy to obtain by the average civilian, and they're also not particularly easy to make either. If this had happened anywhere else (and at any other time) most would probably chalk this up to kids playing pranks, but at the present time of palpably-high tensions globally, there's probably more to the case than meets the eye.

Similar story in Idaho, where very important context has been left out of much of the reporting surrounding the hospital attack. The exact building that was attacked this morning was rumored to contain workspaces that were leased to ICE. These rumors originated from a WIRED article that was published last week, which identified a list of locations that were being used by Homeland Security, and subsequently, ICE. This report circulated among far-left terror cells in Boise last week, which is very likely why local authorities are tight-lipped regarding the suspect...they don't want to admit that far-left groups are continuing to conduct terrorist attacks at an increasing rate around the United States, without any accountability whatsoever. More specific to this area, Boise PD does not have the resources to combat what has become a very serious domestic terrorism problem in their city over the past few months, and stirring up more activists-turned-terrorists is probably more than they want to handle at the moment.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 20, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC MOVEMENT CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. CALTECH SCIENTIST FOUND MURDERED AT HIS HOME IN CALIFORNIA. TERRORIST CONDUCTS VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK ON ELECTRICAL SUBSTATION IN NEVADA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Middle East: The airlift of American forces into the region has largely transitioned to a steady flow of logistics and cargo aircraft, as the fighters and tankers have completed their forward deployment to airbases mostly in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) flights adjacent to Iranian airspace have continued over the past few days, as last-minute checks are conducted before the final "GO" command is given.

Weather: The Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for Imam Khomeini International Airport (OIIE) indicates clear weather for the next few days. Westerly winds of 12 kts are expected in Tehran, and visibility is forecasted to be at least 5 miles for the next few days. Current METARs for other locations around the region confirm that there are no cloud ceilings, and clear skies are expected throughout the next week.

Sea conditions in the Gulf are similarly excellent, with the sea state remaining calm throughout the evenings as standard for this time of year. Light chop is expected in the afternoon on Saturday, with otherwise smooth seas expected for the Strait of Hormuz for the new two days.

-HomeFront-

Nevada: This afternoon authorities in Boulder City released preliminary information regarding a terror attack that was conducted last night. Details are sketchy at best, with authorities stating only that an individual from New York traveled to Boulder City with the intent to conduct a terrorist attack. At some point last night, the unnamed individual rammed a vehicle into an electrical substation near Boulder City, before taking their own life.

Analyst Comment: As of right now, very little information has been made public, and due to the remote nature of the attack site, no civilians witnessed the incident. Authorities have not confirmed which electrical site was targeted, however the Mead Substation is the only facility in the area that matches the loose denoscription provided by police. The suspect has not been identified, and the circumstances of how this event developed have not yet been disclosed, beyond stating that this was a deliberate terror attack. More information is expected this afternoon, as this is a developing situation at the time of this report.

California: This morning more details were disclosed regarding a murder that was committed on Monday. Carl Grillmair, a renowned astronomer and researcher at the California Institute of Technology, was found murdered at his home just outside Los Angeles, after being shot in the chest on his front porch on Monday. A few days after the murder, the suspect was identified as Freddy Snyder, who was arrested on Wednesday.
-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Any time a high-profile murder is committed, a closer look at the case is warranted. Authorities working the case have portrayed this crime as a carjacking-gone-wrong, as the lead suspect has a long history of carjacking. Upon conducting the shooting, the suspect immediately ran to a neighbor's home and attempted to carjack them as well, according to local media reports.

However, beyond the rap sheet of the alleged suspect, none of the details as presented make sense simply based on the location of the murder. The victim was a well-known astronomer, and as a result he lived in the middle of nowhere so as to avoid light pollution as much as possible for his home stargazing and research efforts. This residence is so remote that it's exceptionally unlikely that this was a random crime. To get to this residence, the assailant would have had to drive down multiple dead-end roads, in the dark, directly past a wealthy, non-gated country club, to find this house in the middle of the desert.

The murder was also reported at just after 6:00am local time, which is an extremely rare time for a carjacking to occur. Whatever happened in this case is unclear, and all theories so far are pure speculation. However, what's clear is that there is more to this case than meets the eye, and considering international tensions becoming palpable, it would be wise to consider the 5th Generation Warfare tactics that are probably being utilized throughout the homeland at the moment, whether it be a mysterious murder, or a random substation being taken offline. All eyes are on the Middle East due to the potential for a hot shooting-war to kick off imminently, but the concerns of a shadow war being waged in the homeland are more of an immediate concern, as the general populace jumps from one distraction to the next.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/iSmD2Zg_JKo

//The Wire//1100Z February 23, 2026//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: CARTEL WAR KICKS OFF IN MEXICO AS CJNG LEADER KILLED BY MEXICAN FORCES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

Mexico: Yesterday afternoon Mexican forces conducted a raid in the town of Tapalpa, Jalisco, with the objective of capturing Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes (Alias: "El Mencho"), the leader of the CJNG Cartel. During the operation, El Mencho was killed, which triggered heavy fighting between the Mexican government and the CJNG cartel throughout the afternoon.

So far, most of the heavy fighting has been observed in Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, two cities which have historically served as CJNG strongholds.

Immediately after Mencho's death, CJNG forces declared a general mobilization throughout Jalisco, which encompasses most of their territory. Most of the fighting throughout the afternoon took the form of knee-jerk, rapid response elements engaging Mexican authorities with small arms and crew served weapons, mostly via skirmishes in the street in various small towns scattered throughout the district. Violence is not confined to just Jalisco, burning vehicles were observed in the town of Reynosa, just across the border from McAllen, Texas.

Throughout the evening, a more organized and substantial deployment was undertaken, with heavier weapons and armored vehicles being deployed to engage government forces throughout the region. In the town of Puerto Vallarta, combat actions were reported throughout the afternoon with CJNG briefly holding the city for some time. Within a few hours, Government forces rolled in hard with air support, pushing CJNG out of the city (or at least, out of fighting positions on the street) by nightfall.

Throughout the countryside, many roads are impassable due to cartel forces digging anti-tank ditches across the roadway, emplacing roadblocks, and otherwise digging in for what they perceive to be a draw-out fight.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Throughout much of Mexico, the situation can be described as a state of pandemonium and chaos. There's no way to determine front lines or Centers of Gravity at the moment, as all of the violence observed throughout the afternoon is representative of whatever combat power local CJNG cells had at their safehouses. El Mencho was the patriarch of the CJNG, and more of a grandfather figurehead of the cartel family than an operational leader. As one might expect, killing a sicario's grandfather in such a manner has dialed the violence up to eleven.

As soon as word got out that El Mencho was dead, everyone grabbed their rifles and started shooting at whatever Mexican authorities were in their area. The next few days will probably see even more organized violence as cartel leadership organizes more significantly for combat actions in the long term. Since the CJNG cartel has been allied with the Gulf Cartel for some time, violence has continued right up to the US border.

Due to the rapid breakout of war throughout the region, most entities were not expecting small arms engagements on a peaceful Sunday afternoon. Cities known for heavy tourism industry are directly in the center of much of the fighting, with off-season tourists being caught in the middle of the conflict. As a reminder, Guadalajara is scheduled to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup this summer, and right now many high-level soccer matches have brought scores of tourists and sports fans to the exact district that is now host to heavy fighting.

Guests at the many tourist resorts scattered throughout the region suddenly found their afternoon cocktail hour interrupted by gunfire and shrapnel, and throughout the evening most civilians throughout the region spent many hours sheltering in place, or fleeing the area if they could. The US State Department has issued shelter-in-place orders for the following areas: Puerto Vallarta, Chapala, Guadalajara, Tijuana, Tecate, Ensenada, Cancun, Cozumel, Playa del Carmen, and Tulum.