RR The Wire 1430Z November 25, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 143025Z NOV 23
ICOD: 133025Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: SITUATION REMAINS TENSE IN IRELAND. DEREK CHAUVIN ATTACKED IN FEDERAL PRISON.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ireland: In response to Thursday’s terror attack near a children’s venue, civil unrest has remained constant. Rioting and looting broke out in Dublin Thursday night. Police have stated that they are not treating this attack as terrorism. Irish PM Leo Varadkar has vowed to crack down on demonstrators and implement new hate speech laws that protect immigrants. AC: The Irish government’s decision to stand by immigrants while targeting the speech of taxpaying Irish citizens has resulted in nearly universal outrage among the Irish population, and will likely lead to more demonstrations and riots over the coming days.
Middle East: Thursday night, the M/V CMA CGM Symi was targeted by a drone in the Indian Ocean. Photos have emerged indicating a large fire onboard the vessel, and though no crew were injured, the status of the vessel remains unknown ATT. AC: The attack is suspected to be Iranian in origin as this vessel has ties to Israel, and the crew denoscription of the aircraft matches the Iranian Shahed 136 kamikaze drone. However, this is not confirmed ATT.
-HomeFront-
NY: Very little information has been made public following the Niagara border crossing incident. Despite all officials stating that the incident was not a terror attack, many agencies remain at an elevated threat posture. Counterterrorism force-projection measures and presence patrols continue as well. Authorities have released the identities of the two occupants killed in the explosion as Kurt and Monica Villani.
AZ: Derek Chauvin was stabbed multiple times at the Federal Correctional Institution in Tucson. As of this morning his condition is stable, and he is expected to survive the attack. AC: There is no indication of how a high-risk prisoner would have been in a situation for this attack to occur. The timing of this attack is also highly suspect, when viewed in the context of recent developments with his case. This incident comes two weeks after Chauvin filed a motion to request a new trial on his civil rights count, citing new witness testimony that would have exonerated him on that count. This incident also comes a few days after Chauvin filed for appeal of his murder conviction with the US Supreme Court on the grounds that the original judge refused to sequester the jury, the media appearances by several jurors that indicated irregularities, and at least one juror who lied about being affiliated with the BLM movement during the trial, and that the same juror had attended a rally in support of George Floyd before the trial. The US Supreme Court denied this appeal without comment five days before his attack.
-Analyst Comments-
Gaslighting as become the chief form of international diplomacy, as evidenced by everything from the Israeli war, to the terror attack in Dublin. For instance, the NY Times ran the following headline this morning: [‘It Snowballed’: How a Knife Attack in Dublin Led to a Riot. The violence in Ireland’s capital on Thursday night was fueled by far-right agitators who spread rumors online about an attack on three children earlier that day.]. The content of the article suggests that the “rumors” cited in the subheading refer to the man’s Algerian descent (which has not been officially confirmed by authorities). However, the wording of this subheading alone indicates that the attack itself was the rumor. This is a textbook gaslighting attempt intended to downplay the severity of the terror attack.
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 143025Z NOV 23
ICOD: 133025Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: SITUATION REMAINS TENSE IN IRELAND. DEREK CHAUVIN ATTACKED IN FEDERAL PRISON.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ireland: In response to Thursday’s terror attack near a children’s venue, civil unrest has remained constant. Rioting and looting broke out in Dublin Thursday night. Police have stated that they are not treating this attack as terrorism. Irish PM Leo Varadkar has vowed to crack down on demonstrators and implement new hate speech laws that protect immigrants. AC: The Irish government’s decision to stand by immigrants while targeting the speech of taxpaying Irish citizens has resulted in nearly universal outrage among the Irish population, and will likely lead to more demonstrations and riots over the coming days.
Middle East: Thursday night, the M/V CMA CGM Symi was targeted by a drone in the Indian Ocean. Photos have emerged indicating a large fire onboard the vessel, and though no crew were injured, the status of the vessel remains unknown ATT. AC: The attack is suspected to be Iranian in origin as this vessel has ties to Israel, and the crew denoscription of the aircraft matches the Iranian Shahed 136 kamikaze drone. However, this is not confirmed ATT.
-HomeFront-
NY: Very little information has been made public following the Niagara border crossing incident. Despite all officials stating that the incident was not a terror attack, many agencies remain at an elevated threat posture. Counterterrorism force-projection measures and presence patrols continue as well. Authorities have released the identities of the two occupants killed in the explosion as Kurt and Monica Villani.
AZ: Derek Chauvin was stabbed multiple times at the Federal Correctional Institution in Tucson. As of this morning his condition is stable, and he is expected to survive the attack. AC: There is no indication of how a high-risk prisoner would have been in a situation for this attack to occur. The timing of this attack is also highly suspect, when viewed in the context of recent developments with his case. This incident comes two weeks after Chauvin filed a motion to request a new trial on his civil rights count, citing new witness testimony that would have exonerated him on that count. This incident also comes a few days after Chauvin filed for appeal of his murder conviction with the US Supreme Court on the grounds that the original judge refused to sequester the jury, the media appearances by several jurors that indicated irregularities, and at least one juror who lied about being affiliated with the BLM movement during the trial, and that the same juror had attended a rally in support of George Floyd before the trial. The US Supreme Court denied this appeal without comment five days before his attack.
-Analyst Comments-
Gaslighting as become the chief form of international diplomacy, as evidenced by everything from the Israeli war, to the terror attack in Dublin. For instance, the NY Times ran the following headline this morning: [‘It Snowballed’: How a Knife Attack in Dublin Led to a Riot. The violence in Ireland’s capital on Thursday night was fueled by far-right agitators who spread rumors online about an attack on three children earlier that day.]. The content of the article suggests that the “rumors” cited in the subheading refer to the man’s Algerian descent (which has not been officially confirmed by authorities). However, the wording of this subheading alone indicates that the attack itself was the rumor. This is a textbook gaslighting attempt intended to downplay the severity of the terror attack.
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All MSM corporations have been covering the riots, but very little coverage exists regarding the attacker. As authorities have released almost zero details officially (such as the attacker’s name), unofficial reports and unconfirmed HUMINT is really the best we can do ATT. However, some media outlets have specific details about the attacker as he was allegedly known to police in the area. Though single-source reporting that cannot be confirmed ATT, some media outlets are reporting that the suspect was charged with the possession of a knife in May, but was not convicted due to mental issues.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z November 27, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233027Z NOV 23
ICOD: 230027Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: UNREST CONTINUES IN IRELAND. PRISONER EXCHANGE IN GAZA HIGHLIGHTS IRREGULARITIES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ireland: Unrest continues following the proposal of new hate speech laws. The proposed legal changes criminalize a substantial amount of online and physical content. AC: Rather than being a new law itself, the proposals so far have been amendments to CJ Bill (22), which is itself a “modernization” of a 1989 law regarding hate speech. However, the newly proposed amendments appear to criminalize the possession of “hate” content, which based on the proposed definitions of “hate content”, can really be any content.
Middle East: Israel and Hamas have conducted prisoner swaps during the tenuous ceasefire. Among the 17 hostages returned to Israel was Abigail Mor Edan, a 4 year old Israeli-American girl. AC: Per an NBC news report which interviewed her family members, her great-aunt was revealed to be Elizabeth Hirsh Naftali, a wealthy Los Angeles real estate investor at the heart of the ongoing corruption scandals within the White House. Naftali was appointed by President Biden to the U.S. Commission for the Preservation of America’s Heritage Abroad. In July 2022 (eight months prior to this appointment), Naftali purchased one of Hunter Biden’s paintings at his first art show in Hollywood. Before the scandals, Naftali was known as a major donor to the Democratic party, and hosted a fundraiser event featuring VP Kamala Harris last year. If these familial ties are true, the direct involvement of the US to secure the release of hostages with direct familial (and financial) ties to the current US government is almost certainly a conflict of interest, the follow-on effects of which cannot be determined at this time.
-Analyst Comments-
Regarding concerns for free speech in Ireland, the recent riots in Dublin appear to have given politicians the political capital needed to usher in a new wave of legislation to target political enemies. As these proposed changes stand, owning a copy of virtually any classic book, having a meme on your phone, and possessing a diary or unapproved news articles can be construed as a criminal act under these proposals. Though these newest updates are getting much attention at the moment, the efforts to restrict speech have been underway for a long time. For instance, in a press statement last year, MoJ McEntee stated that these modernizations are intended to be “effective in securing convictions”, as only about 50 people have been prosecuted for hate speech since 1989.
Over the past few months, authorities have concentrated efforts to restrict individual freedoms in Ireland (as has been a trend throughout Europe at large). In fact, in July Green Party Senator Pauline O'Reilly stated that: “We are restricting freedom but we are doing it for the common good”. Considering Ireland’s history and culture, and the open admission of textbook tyranny taking place in the most literal sense, these efforts are likely to result in boiling points being reached, as has happened following the Dublin terror attack.
As global tensions remain high, even the smallest incident can result in a flashpoint of events occurring nearly-simultaneously: 1- Citizens revolting (in some regard, however minor it may be), and 2- Authoritarians taking advantage of both the outrage, and the unrest to grant themselves even more power. This trend has remained constant over the past few years, and likely will result in even more kinetic actions (and draconian “laws”) in the near future. Public outrage is usually temporary, however intense it may seem at the time. Laws, however, tend to outlast the outrage and remain concerning long into the future.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233027Z NOV 23
ICOD: 230027Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: UNREST CONTINUES IN IRELAND. PRISONER EXCHANGE IN GAZA HIGHLIGHTS IRREGULARITIES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ireland: Unrest continues following the proposal of new hate speech laws. The proposed legal changes criminalize a substantial amount of online and physical content. AC: Rather than being a new law itself, the proposals so far have been amendments to CJ Bill (22), which is itself a “modernization” of a 1989 law regarding hate speech. However, the newly proposed amendments appear to criminalize the possession of “hate” content, which based on the proposed definitions of “hate content”, can really be any content.
Middle East: Israel and Hamas have conducted prisoner swaps during the tenuous ceasefire. Among the 17 hostages returned to Israel was Abigail Mor Edan, a 4 year old Israeli-American girl. AC: Per an NBC news report which interviewed her family members, her great-aunt was revealed to be Elizabeth Hirsh Naftali, a wealthy Los Angeles real estate investor at the heart of the ongoing corruption scandals within the White House. Naftali was appointed by President Biden to the U.S. Commission for the Preservation of America’s Heritage Abroad. In July 2022 (eight months prior to this appointment), Naftali purchased one of Hunter Biden’s paintings at his first art show in Hollywood. Before the scandals, Naftali was known as a major donor to the Democratic party, and hosted a fundraiser event featuring VP Kamala Harris last year. If these familial ties are true, the direct involvement of the US to secure the release of hostages with direct familial (and financial) ties to the current US government is almost certainly a conflict of interest, the follow-on effects of which cannot be determined at this time.
-Analyst Comments-
Regarding concerns for free speech in Ireland, the recent riots in Dublin appear to have given politicians the political capital needed to usher in a new wave of legislation to target political enemies. As these proposed changes stand, owning a copy of virtually any classic book, having a meme on your phone, and possessing a diary or unapproved news articles can be construed as a criminal act under these proposals. Though these newest updates are getting much attention at the moment, the efforts to restrict speech have been underway for a long time. For instance, in a press statement last year, MoJ McEntee stated that these modernizations are intended to be “effective in securing convictions”, as only about 50 people have been prosecuted for hate speech since 1989.
Over the past few months, authorities have concentrated efforts to restrict individual freedoms in Ireland (as has been a trend throughout Europe at large). In fact, in July Green Party Senator Pauline O'Reilly stated that: “We are restricting freedom but we are doing it for the common good”. Considering Ireland’s history and culture, and the open admission of textbook tyranny taking place in the most literal sense, these efforts are likely to result in boiling points being reached, as has happened following the Dublin terror attack.
As global tensions remain high, even the smallest incident can result in a flashpoint of events occurring nearly-simultaneously: 1- Citizens revolting (in some regard, however minor it may be), and 2- Authoritarians taking advantage of both the outrage, and the unrest to grant themselves even more power. This trend has remained constant over the past few years, and likely will result in even more kinetic actions (and draconian “laws”) in the near future. Public outrage is usually temporary, however intense it may seem at the time. Laws, however, tend to outlast the outrage and remain concerning long into the future.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2100Z November 28, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 210028Z NOV 23
ICOD: 200028Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: KNIFE ATTACK THWARTED IN IRELAND. DOJ DOCUMENTS CONFIRM DOMESTIC SPYING IN TRUMP CASE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: In Ireland, another terror attack struck Dublin as a man entered a post office with a knife shouting “Allahu Akbar” this morning. Citizens engaged the attacker, stopping the attack before police arrived. No word yet on any injuries. Civil unrest resulting from the first terror attack continues as Irish politicians intensify efforts to silence opposition to immigration policies.
Scandinavian Front: Finland announces a closure of their entire border with Russia due to ongoing immigration disputes. Finnish authorities claim the border will close at midnight on Thursday and be closed for at least two weeks.
Middle East Front: Prisoner swaps continue between Hamas and Israel, before the end of the ceasefire period. Developing reports indicate the ceasefire has possibly been broken and fighting has resumed as before. AC: It is unclear as to which side broke the ceasefire (if it indeed has been broken) as social media accounts used by both sides have blamed each other and the situation is still developing.
-Homefront-
USA: The DoJ has released a search warrant associated with their investigation of Donald Trump. The document in question relates to information sought regarding Trump’s Twitter account. Though 8 of the 14 pages are redacted in their entirety, page 3 confirms that the DoJ sought “All information from the “connect” or “Notifications” tab for the account, including all lists of Twitter users who have favorited or retweeted tweets posted by the account, as well as all tweets that include the username associated with the account (i.e. “mentions” or “replies”). AC: This means that anyone who interacted with Trump’s account on Twitter has had their private account information shared with the DoJ. A “like” on a single post was enough for Twitter to turn over any account’s information to the DoJ.
-Analyst Comments-
The Constitutional and human rights concerns regarding Trump’s search warrant are palpable, but not particularly unexpected. These recent revelations are the latest in the long train of abuses documented clearly and openly by law enforcement agencies. Twitter, failing to immediately comply with the order challenged the search warrant and the Non-Disclosure order (unsuccessfully), and was fined $350,000 before ultimately complying with the order. As a reminder, the judge who approved this search warrant was appointed to the bench by Barack Obama.
In the Middle East, the recent prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas has been a nearly total information victory for Hamas. Though reports are conflicting and almost impossible to verify, prisoners held by Hamas have frequently reported that they have been treated well, whereas prisoners held by the Israelis detail harsh conditions, abuse, and sometimes torture. However, care must be taken to realize that Hamas in particular has the overwhelming incentive to treat prisoners well, knowing that they would be released at some point and would share their experiences with the world. Hamas (being an insurgent force) has everything to gain, and little to lose by treating prisoners well. On the other hand, Israel does not care what the international community thinks, thus the bad press regarding their prisoners has little effect on Israeli policy and/or doctrine. As such, Hamas appearing to treat prisoners well, and Israel appearing to treat prisoners poorly is probably not as indicative of the real situation as we might want it to be. Both sides want to label their opponents as “barbarians”, but in this conflict so far Hamas has been far more effective at shaping the narrative in their favor, which has been made easy by Israel’s own actions.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 210028Z NOV 23
ICOD: 200028Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: KNIFE ATTACK THWARTED IN IRELAND. DOJ DOCUMENTS CONFIRM DOMESTIC SPYING IN TRUMP CASE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: In Ireland, another terror attack struck Dublin as a man entered a post office with a knife shouting “Allahu Akbar” this morning. Citizens engaged the attacker, stopping the attack before police arrived. No word yet on any injuries. Civil unrest resulting from the first terror attack continues as Irish politicians intensify efforts to silence opposition to immigration policies.
Scandinavian Front: Finland announces a closure of their entire border with Russia due to ongoing immigration disputes. Finnish authorities claim the border will close at midnight on Thursday and be closed for at least two weeks.
Middle East Front: Prisoner swaps continue between Hamas and Israel, before the end of the ceasefire period. Developing reports indicate the ceasefire has possibly been broken and fighting has resumed as before. AC: It is unclear as to which side broke the ceasefire (if it indeed has been broken) as social media accounts used by both sides have blamed each other and the situation is still developing.
-Homefront-
USA: The DoJ has released a search warrant associated with their investigation of Donald Trump. The document in question relates to information sought regarding Trump’s Twitter account. Though 8 of the 14 pages are redacted in their entirety, page 3 confirms that the DoJ sought “All information from the “connect” or “Notifications” tab for the account, including all lists of Twitter users who have favorited or retweeted tweets posted by the account, as well as all tweets that include the username associated with the account (i.e. “mentions” or “replies”). AC: This means that anyone who interacted with Trump’s account on Twitter has had their private account information shared with the DoJ. A “like” on a single post was enough for Twitter to turn over any account’s information to the DoJ.
-Analyst Comments-
The Constitutional and human rights concerns regarding Trump’s search warrant are palpable, but not particularly unexpected. These recent revelations are the latest in the long train of abuses documented clearly and openly by law enforcement agencies. Twitter, failing to immediately comply with the order challenged the search warrant and the Non-Disclosure order (unsuccessfully), and was fined $350,000 before ultimately complying with the order. As a reminder, the judge who approved this search warrant was appointed to the bench by Barack Obama.
In the Middle East, the recent prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas has been a nearly total information victory for Hamas. Though reports are conflicting and almost impossible to verify, prisoners held by Hamas have frequently reported that they have been treated well, whereas prisoners held by the Israelis detail harsh conditions, abuse, and sometimes torture. However, care must be taken to realize that Hamas in particular has the overwhelming incentive to treat prisoners well, knowing that they would be released at some point and would share their experiences with the world. Hamas (being an insurgent force) has everything to gain, and little to lose by treating prisoners well. On the other hand, Israel does not care what the international community thinks, thus the bad press regarding their prisoners has little effect on Israeli policy and/or doctrine. As such, Hamas appearing to treat prisoners well, and Israel appearing to treat prisoners poorly is probably not as indicative of the real situation as we might want it to be. Both sides want to label their opponents as “barbarians”, but in this conflict so far Hamas has been far more effective at shaping the narrative in their favor, which has been made easy by Israel’s own actions.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2130Z November 29, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213029Z NOV 23
ICOD: 210029Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: GAZA CEASEFIRE CONTINUES TENUOUSLY. PRO-PALESTINE DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE AS BEFORE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: The situation regarding the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel remains in question. Some sources continue to claim the ceasefire has broken, but other sources claim the ceasefire is holding. Some evidence suggests that limited skirmishes and engagements have occurred, but the locations of which have been hard to verify. AC: By and large, the ceasefire is probably holding with regards to large-scale attacks such as rocket attacks or bombings. However, due to the insurgent and somewhat cellular nature of Hamas and the severe degradation of communication lines in Gaza, it is possible that some fighters scattered throughout Gaza City either do not know of the ceasefire, or are committed to attacks regardless. Doctrinally speaking, holdouts remaining behind enemy lines are the hardest forces to judge, and if this theory is plausible, this would explain the conflicting reports.
What is more clear is the Israeli advance into West Bank. Though the Gaza Strip may be under a ceasefire, Israeli operations in the West Bank continue as before. Arab media sources are claiming that though Israel has released a little over a hundred prisoners to Hamas in the Gaza prisoner exchanges, Israeli forces have taken roughly the same amount of prisoners in West Bank, many of which may be children. AC: Though the sourcing of these claims is dubious at best (like every single source reporting on this conflict so far), this would make sense in terms of Israel’s strategic goals. Israeli officials have confirmed the military operations in West Bank, but have not indicated how many prisoners they have taken from the area over the past few weeks.
-Homefront-
USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue as before. Reports from social media indicate there will allegedly be a significant Pro-Palestine protest at the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree lighting ceremony. AC: Though most of what’s on social media isn’t true these days, so far tree lighting events around the country have been targeted by demonstrators.
-Analyst Comments-
Moving into the Christmas season, large holiday festivities are likely to be targeted by demonstrations at minimum, and more deliberate attacks at worst. Due to the ongoing events in the Middle East, the potential for lone-wolf attacks is increased throughout North America and Europe. Though this idea can be cut/pasted from any moment in the past decade, this year the motivations for unrest and the authorities’ means to cover up genuine terror attacks, could result in more kinetic actions over the next month.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213029Z NOV 23
ICOD: 210029Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: GAZA CEASEFIRE CONTINUES TENUOUSLY. PRO-PALESTINE DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE AS BEFORE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: The situation regarding the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel remains in question. Some sources continue to claim the ceasefire has broken, but other sources claim the ceasefire is holding. Some evidence suggests that limited skirmishes and engagements have occurred, but the locations of which have been hard to verify. AC: By and large, the ceasefire is probably holding with regards to large-scale attacks such as rocket attacks or bombings. However, due to the insurgent and somewhat cellular nature of Hamas and the severe degradation of communication lines in Gaza, it is possible that some fighters scattered throughout Gaza City either do not know of the ceasefire, or are committed to attacks regardless. Doctrinally speaking, holdouts remaining behind enemy lines are the hardest forces to judge, and if this theory is plausible, this would explain the conflicting reports.
What is more clear is the Israeli advance into West Bank. Though the Gaza Strip may be under a ceasefire, Israeli operations in the West Bank continue as before. Arab media sources are claiming that though Israel has released a little over a hundred prisoners to Hamas in the Gaza prisoner exchanges, Israeli forces have taken roughly the same amount of prisoners in West Bank, many of which may be children. AC: Though the sourcing of these claims is dubious at best (like every single source reporting on this conflict so far), this would make sense in terms of Israel’s strategic goals. Israeli officials have confirmed the military operations in West Bank, but have not indicated how many prisoners they have taken from the area over the past few weeks.
-Homefront-
USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue as before. Reports from social media indicate there will allegedly be a significant Pro-Palestine protest at the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree lighting ceremony. AC: Though most of what’s on social media isn’t true these days, so far tree lighting events around the country have been targeted by demonstrators.
-Analyst Comments-
Moving into the Christmas season, large holiday festivities are likely to be targeted by demonstrations at minimum, and more deliberate attacks at worst. Due to the ongoing events in the Middle East, the potential for lone-wolf attacks is increased throughout North America and Europe. Though this idea can be cut/pasted from any moment in the past decade, this year the motivations for unrest and the authorities’ means to cover up genuine terror attacks, could result in more kinetic actions over the next month.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2330Z November 30, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233030Z NOV 23
ICOD: 230030Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN WEST BANK. DEVELOPMENTS IN POL PRODUCTION INFLUENCE MARKET PRICES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: The ceasefire in Gaza continues as fighting increases severity in the West Bank. AC: Conflict in Jenin has remained volatile since the ceasefire began.
OPEC announces a further cutting of production by 1 million BPD. AC: This is in addition to the 1 million BPD production cut already in place until the end of the year. As this information comes on the heels of Brazil’s announcement of joining OPEC+ next year, it is unclear as to how severely the increasing of voluntary production cuts will affect crude prices next year.
South American Front: Tensions flare between Guyana and Venezuela following long-standing territorial disputes in the region. Brazil has reportedly begun moving troops to their border with Venezuela allegedly in response to Venezuelan troop movements near the disputed zone.
-Homefront-
NY: Pro-Palestine demonstrations disrupt the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree lighting ceremony. Initial reports indicate at least two arrests were made.
Washington D.C. – An FBI agent was carjacked by two armed attackers, both of whom remain at large.
-Analyst Comments-
As a reminder, Venezuela has claimed roughly 70% of Guyana’s land mass as being historically integral to Venezuela. The disputed territory is allegedly home to vast petroleum deposits. Though this issue is not new, the recent tightening of OPEC production could inflame tensions in the region even more over the coming months.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233030Z NOV 23
ICOD: 230030Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN WEST BANK. DEVELOPMENTS IN POL PRODUCTION INFLUENCE MARKET PRICES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: The ceasefire in Gaza continues as fighting increases severity in the West Bank. AC: Conflict in Jenin has remained volatile since the ceasefire began.
OPEC announces a further cutting of production by 1 million BPD. AC: This is in addition to the 1 million BPD production cut already in place until the end of the year. As this information comes on the heels of Brazil’s announcement of joining OPEC+ next year, it is unclear as to how severely the increasing of voluntary production cuts will affect crude prices next year.
South American Front: Tensions flare between Guyana and Venezuela following long-standing territorial disputes in the region. Brazil has reportedly begun moving troops to their border with Venezuela allegedly in response to Venezuelan troop movements near the disputed zone.
-Homefront-
NY: Pro-Palestine demonstrations disrupt the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree lighting ceremony. Initial reports indicate at least two arrests were made.
Washington D.C. – An FBI agent was carjacked by two armed attackers, both of whom remain at large.
-Analyst Comments-
As a reminder, Venezuela has claimed roughly 70% of Guyana’s land mass as being historically integral to Venezuela. The disputed territory is allegedly home to vast petroleum deposits. Though this issue is not new, the recent tightening of OPEC production could inflame tensions in the region even more over the coming months.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2130Z December 1, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213001Z DEC 23
ICOD: 200001Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: GAZA CEASEFIRE HAS BROKEN. TENSIONS REMAIN IN NORTHERN BRAZIL.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: In Gaza, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has been broken. It is unclear as which side began hostilities first (or if the deadline was reached), as both sides launched nearly simultaneous attacks. Hamas has conducted substantial rocket attacks in the North, with Israel conducting substantial airstrikes IVO the Rafah border crossing. Attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon continue as well. Due to the intensity of the conflict, humanitarian aid shipments into Gaza via the Rafah crossing have stopped for the time being.
Europe: In Russia, Vladimir Putin signs decree increasing the total size of the AFRF by 170,000. AC: This is not a deployment or mobilization, but rather an increase in the standing size of the Russian military. Currently Russia’s military is comprised of roughly 1.3 million service members. This move comes three weeks after Russia’s (and NATO’s) formal withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), the treaty intended to limit the numbers of troops in Europe at the height of the Cold War.
South America: Brazil continues to bolster defenses along the border with Venezuela amid high tensions in the region. AC: Limited reports on social media indicate Brazil has moved forces into a salient north of Boa Vista. Due to terrain limitations and the access of roads, a Venezuelan land-based invasion of Guyana (if it were to happen) could be conducted via Brazil’s territory.
-Homefront-
GA: Local reporting indicates a woman has possibly attempted to self-immolate outside the Israeli Consulate in Atlanta. NFI ATT. AC: Though a currently developing event, initial reports indicate the woman was wearing/holding a Palestinian flag, suggesting the motive for the incident as being linked to the current conflict in the Middle East.
-Analyst Comments-
In the Middle East, Israel has almost certainly made good use of the ceasefire to continue SIGINT collection efforts within Gaza. However, it is unclear as to how effective this intelligence gathering would have been as Hamas militants clearly understand Israel’s superior technical intelligence capability. As a result, airstrikes are likely to be intense as targeting efforts catch up to the intelligence picture.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213001Z DEC 23
ICOD: 200001Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: GAZA CEASEFIRE HAS BROKEN. TENSIONS REMAIN IN NORTHERN BRAZIL.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: In Gaza, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has been broken. It is unclear as which side began hostilities first (or if the deadline was reached), as both sides launched nearly simultaneous attacks. Hamas has conducted substantial rocket attacks in the North, with Israel conducting substantial airstrikes IVO the Rafah border crossing. Attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon continue as well. Due to the intensity of the conflict, humanitarian aid shipments into Gaza via the Rafah crossing have stopped for the time being.
Europe: In Russia, Vladimir Putin signs decree increasing the total size of the AFRF by 170,000. AC: This is not a deployment or mobilization, but rather an increase in the standing size of the Russian military. Currently Russia’s military is comprised of roughly 1.3 million service members. This move comes three weeks after Russia’s (and NATO’s) formal withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), the treaty intended to limit the numbers of troops in Europe at the height of the Cold War.
South America: Brazil continues to bolster defenses along the border with Venezuela amid high tensions in the region. AC: Limited reports on social media indicate Brazil has moved forces into a salient north of Boa Vista. Due to terrain limitations and the access of roads, a Venezuelan land-based invasion of Guyana (if it were to happen) could be conducted via Brazil’s territory.
-Homefront-
GA: Local reporting indicates a woman has possibly attempted to self-immolate outside the Israeli Consulate in Atlanta. NFI ATT. AC: Though a currently developing event, initial reports indicate the woman was wearing/holding a Palestinian flag, suggesting the motive for the incident as being linked to the current conflict in the Middle East.
-Analyst Comments-
In the Middle East, Israel has almost certainly made good use of the ceasefire to continue SIGINT collection efforts within Gaza. However, it is unclear as to how effective this intelligence gathering would have been as Hamas militants clearly understand Israel’s superior technical intelligence capability. As a result, airstrikes are likely to be intense as targeting efforts catch up to the intelligence picture.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 1700Z December 2, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 170002Z DEC 23
ICOD: 163002Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA. TENSIONS REMAIN IN SOUTH AMERICA IN ADVANCE OF REFERENDUM VOTE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war in Gaza continues as the end of the ceasefire results in renewed efforts by all parties. Several small militant groups within Lebanon have declared their participation in the conflict as Hezbollah increases attacks in the North. Israel continues bombing attacks on all fronts, while Hamas rocket attacks have mainly focused on targeting Israeli positions to the north of Gaza City.
South America: Military posturing efforts remain underway in Brazil as tensions escalate before the Venezuelan referendum on Guyana. Tomorrow, Venezuelan voters head to the polls to vote on whether or not to annex the Esequibo region of Guyana.
-Homefront-
USA: Details emerge regarding the stabbing of Derek Chauvin. The assailant was John Turscak, who was sentenced in 2001 to 30 years confinement for racketeering while serving as an FBI informant working within Mexican mafia circles. Turscak claims to have committed the attack in solidarity with the BLM movement.
-Analyst Comments-
Tensions in Guyana and Brazil will remain high over the next few days as the Venezuelan population (in effect) votes on whether or not to invade another country. Considering Venezuela’s current political and electoral situation, there is little doubt as to the outcome of this vote. What is more debatable is whether or not Venezuela will indeed carry out their plans.
Regarding the attempted assassination of Derek Chauvin, it is unclear as to why a federal informant who, nearing the end of their sentence, would commit an attack in the name of a group that Mexican cartels have historically had a tepid relationship with.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 170002Z DEC 23
ICOD: 163002Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA. TENSIONS REMAIN IN SOUTH AMERICA IN ADVANCE OF REFERENDUM VOTE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The war in Gaza continues as the end of the ceasefire results in renewed efforts by all parties. Several small militant groups within Lebanon have declared their participation in the conflict as Hezbollah increases attacks in the North. Israel continues bombing attacks on all fronts, while Hamas rocket attacks have mainly focused on targeting Israeli positions to the north of Gaza City.
South America: Military posturing efforts remain underway in Brazil as tensions escalate before the Venezuelan referendum on Guyana. Tomorrow, Venezuelan voters head to the polls to vote on whether or not to annex the Esequibo region of Guyana.
-Homefront-
USA: Details emerge regarding the stabbing of Derek Chauvin. The assailant was John Turscak, who was sentenced in 2001 to 30 years confinement for racketeering while serving as an FBI informant working within Mexican mafia circles. Turscak claims to have committed the attack in solidarity with the BLM movement.
-Analyst Comments-
Tensions in Guyana and Brazil will remain high over the next few days as the Venezuelan population (in effect) votes on whether or not to invade another country. Considering Venezuela’s current political and electoral situation, there is little doubt as to the outcome of this vote. What is more debatable is whether or not Venezuela will indeed carry out their plans.
Regarding the attempted assassination of Derek Chauvin, it is unclear as to why a federal informant who, nearing the end of their sentence, would commit an attack in the name of a group that Mexican cartels have historically had a tepid relationship with.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 1800Z December 4, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 180004Z DEC 23
ICOD: 173004Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MERCHANT SHIPPING ATTACKED IN RED SEA. U.S. PLEDGES TO BAN ALL COAL POWER BY 2055.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Significant developments have occurred following multiple attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Several commercial vessels have been attacked by possible ASCMs and kamikaze drones (of Yemeni origin) over the past 24 hours. The USS CARNEY (DDG-64) successfully engaged at least THREE ASCM's and multiple kamikaze drones during the attack, while responding to the multiple distress calls from merchant vessels. The following is the preliminary damage report concerning all vessels involved in the attack:
M/V UNITY EXPLORER – Minor-Moderate Damage
M/V NUMBER 9 – Severe Damage, Risk of Sinking
M/V SOPHIE II – Minor-Moderate Damage
USS CARNEY – No damage sustained.
AC: Expect substantial US Navy presence (as well as other nations/coalitions) in the region following the escalation of these attacks. Threats to global maritime shipping will almost certainly result in an escalation of presence patrols (and hostilities) in the region. Specifically, the USS BATAAN (LHD-5) ARG, and the USS CARTER HALL (LSD-50) remain O/S in the northern Red Sea, and could maneuver south to provide additional support.
South America: Yesterday, Venezuelan citizens voted overwhelmingly to support the annexation of the Esequibo region of Guyana.
-HomeFront-
USA: Special Envoy John Kerry has announced that the United States will be joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance. This is an international pledge to immediately halt the construction of new coal-fired power plants, and to remove all existing coal power plants by 2035. AC: According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), last year roughly 20% of all energy produced in the US originated from coal.
-Analyst Comments-
The vote turning in favor of an annexation of Esequibo is not surprising considering Venezuela’s electoral history. However, now that Maduro has the mandate, the world awaits Venezuela’s actions on the matter. Very early (and unconfirmed) reports suggest that Venezuelan SOF may already have penetrated the jungles of the Esequibo region. This would align with Venezuela’s goals, and if confirmed would lead to even more escalation throughout the region.
As the US has blamed the allegedly Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled Yemeni government for the recent attacks on maritime shipping, this will add to the list of justifications to attack Iran that many US politicians have been wanting. As a reminder, several US politicians have openly called for a war with Iran, specifically for the launching of preemptive strikes against targets in Iran. While difficult to tell if these recent attacks will be the “straw that broke the camels back”, it is very likely that increased harassment and attacks on commercial shipping will draw an international response.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 180004Z DEC 23
ICOD: 173004Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MERCHANT SHIPPING ATTACKED IN RED SEA. U.S. PLEDGES TO BAN ALL COAL POWER BY 2055.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Significant developments have occurred following multiple attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Several commercial vessels have been attacked by possible ASCMs and kamikaze drones (of Yemeni origin) over the past 24 hours. The USS CARNEY (DDG-64) successfully engaged at least THREE ASCM's and multiple kamikaze drones during the attack, while responding to the multiple distress calls from merchant vessels. The following is the preliminary damage report concerning all vessels involved in the attack:
M/V UNITY EXPLORER – Minor-Moderate Damage
M/V NUMBER 9 – Severe Damage, Risk of Sinking
M/V SOPHIE II – Minor-Moderate Damage
USS CARNEY – No damage sustained.
AC: Expect substantial US Navy presence (as well as other nations/coalitions) in the region following the escalation of these attacks. Threats to global maritime shipping will almost certainly result in an escalation of presence patrols (and hostilities) in the region. Specifically, the USS BATAAN (LHD-5) ARG, and the USS CARTER HALL (LSD-50) remain O/S in the northern Red Sea, and could maneuver south to provide additional support.
South America: Yesterday, Venezuelan citizens voted overwhelmingly to support the annexation of the Esequibo region of Guyana.
-HomeFront-
USA: Special Envoy John Kerry has announced that the United States will be joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance. This is an international pledge to immediately halt the construction of new coal-fired power plants, and to remove all existing coal power plants by 2035. AC: According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), last year roughly 20% of all energy produced in the US originated from coal.
-Analyst Comments-
The vote turning in favor of an annexation of Esequibo is not surprising considering Venezuela’s electoral history. However, now that Maduro has the mandate, the world awaits Venezuela’s actions on the matter. Very early (and unconfirmed) reports suggest that Venezuelan SOF may already have penetrated the jungles of the Esequibo region. This would align with Venezuela’s goals, and if confirmed would lead to even more escalation throughout the region.
As the US has blamed the allegedly Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled Yemeni government for the recent attacks on maritime shipping, this will add to the list of justifications to attack Iran that many US politicians have been wanting. As a reminder, several US politicians have openly called for a war with Iran, specifically for the launching of preemptive strikes against targets in Iran. While difficult to tell if these recent attacks will be the “straw that broke the camels back”, it is very likely that increased harassment and attacks on commercial shipping will draw an international response.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2230Z December 5, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223005Z DEC 23
ICOD: 213005Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN GAZA AND WEST BANK. SOUTH AMERICA AWAITS VENEZEULA’S NEXT MOVE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Conflict in Jenin intensifies following IDF actions in the area. Airstrikes continue to be persistent throughout much of the West Bank. Hezbollah militants in Lebanon continue rocket attacks as before.
South America: Brazilian military forces remain at a heightened state of readiness following the escalation of tensions in the region. So far, there are no solid indicators of Venezuelan actions regarding their potential annexation of Esequibo. AC: Some demonstrators in the Esequibo have conducted displays of support for Venezuela on social media. Several Venezuelan flags have been placed on strategic mountaintops in the region as well.
Europe: Among US politicians, rhetoric concerning the Ukrainian war has radically reversed course over the past few weeks. Even the most dedicated supporters of the Ukrainian war are announcing that financial and military support for Ukraine will continue to dwindle.
-HomeFront-
TX: A chemical incident at the Altivia Specialty Chemicals plant in La Porte resulted in the release of phosgene gas. This incident prompted evacuations for the local area. No word on what caused the incident.
-Analyst Comments-
It is currently unclear as to whether or not Venezuela will actually go through with plans to invade Guyana. Posts on social media (which are the only insight into the remote region) remain wildly variable and extremely unconfirmed. If Venezuela were to launch an invasion, terrain will likely be the biggest limiting factor as Guyana’s entire military (using 2018 numbers) is roughly the size of the Dallas Police Department. Additionally, if an invasion were to occur, it would be difficult to determine virtually any information as the Esequibo region is largely untouched by civilization.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223005Z DEC 23
ICOD: 213005Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN GAZA AND WEST BANK. SOUTH AMERICA AWAITS VENEZEULA’S NEXT MOVE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Conflict in Jenin intensifies following IDF actions in the area. Airstrikes continue to be persistent throughout much of the West Bank. Hezbollah militants in Lebanon continue rocket attacks as before.
South America: Brazilian military forces remain at a heightened state of readiness following the escalation of tensions in the region. So far, there are no solid indicators of Venezuelan actions regarding their potential annexation of Esequibo. AC: Some demonstrators in the Esequibo have conducted displays of support for Venezuela on social media. Several Venezuelan flags have been placed on strategic mountaintops in the region as well.
Europe: Among US politicians, rhetoric concerning the Ukrainian war has radically reversed course over the past few weeks. Even the most dedicated supporters of the Ukrainian war are announcing that financial and military support for Ukraine will continue to dwindle.
-HomeFront-
TX: A chemical incident at the Altivia Specialty Chemicals plant in La Porte resulted in the release of phosgene gas. This incident prompted evacuations for the local area. No word on what caused the incident.
-Analyst Comments-
It is currently unclear as to whether or not Venezuela will actually go through with plans to invade Guyana. Posts on social media (which are the only insight into the remote region) remain wildly variable and extremely unconfirmed. If Venezuela were to launch an invasion, terrain will likely be the biggest limiting factor as Guyana’s entire military (using 2018 numbers) is roughly the size of the Dallas Police Department. Additionally, if an invasion were to occur, it would be difficult to determine virtually any information as the Esequibo region is largely untouched by civilization.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 1530Z December 6, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 153006Z DEC 23
ICOD: 143006Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: VENEZUELA BEGINS PREPARATION FOR OPERATIONS WITHIN ESEQUIBO.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: In Germany, the Ministry of the Interior for the state of Saxony-Anhalt has mandated that all naturalization candidates must declare their support for Israel as part of the naturalization process. Specifically, those seeking German citizenship in this region will be required to provide a written statement declaring their support for Israel. If this oath is not provided, this will lead to the denial of naturalization for those seeking German citizenship. AC: The documentation released so far indicates that candidates are not free to choose their own wording, as local authorities have been mandated to set the specific wording used in the oath sworn to Israel.
South America: Venezuela demonstrates several indications and warnings of an impending invasion. Venezuela has declared the Esequibo region to be Venezuelan territory and has added the region to their official national map. Several officials have also declared that Venezuela will be creating a military zone in the region and issuing new ID cards to those living in remote villages throughout the area.
-Analyst Comments-
In terms of a military invasion, the actions by Venezuela may not result in much news due to the remote nature of the terrain. Most of this region is uncharted territory; there are no major cities or major highways in this “disputed” area, with this region hosting some of the largest untouched jungle on the continent. As such, Venezuela can dominate the terrain by creating FOBs in critical areas, by which oil surveys can be protected. From these Centers of Gravity, Venezuelan troops can occupy the region, without exercising complete control over every inch of the terrain. This may be good enough for Venezuela’s oil-pursuing intentions, but this does present vulnerabilities that can be exploited by a much smaller force.
However, this extremely remote terrain means that Venezuela’s actions can technically be described as an “invasion” or “occupation”, but will likely not take the form that many might think. Small groups of Venezuelan troops have already entered this area over the past few years, under the guise of combating illegal mining, so sporadic Venezuelan presence in the region is not unheard of. For more significant operations, Venezuela may place FOBs/firebases in the middle of the jungle and operate for weeks, with no opposition. What is likely to occur first is the establishment of Forward Arming and Refueling Points (FARPs) near the border, or just inside the Esequibo. This will be crucial to allow Venezuelan troops logistics hubs to refuel and stage operations for the construction of bases of operations within the region.
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 153006Z DEC 23
ICOD: 143006Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: VENEZUELA BEGINS PREPARATION FOR OPERATIONS WITHIN ESEQUIBO.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: In Germany, the Ministry of the Interior for the state of Saxony-Anhalt has mandated that all naturalization candidates must declare their support for Israel as part of the naturalization process. Specifically, those seeking German citizenship in this region will be required to provide a written statement declaring their support for Israel. If this oath is not provided, this will lead to the denial of naturalization for those seeking German citizenship. AC: The documentation released so far indicates that candidates are not free to choose their own wording, as local authorities have been mandated to set the specific wording used in the oath sworn to Israel.
South America: Venezuela demonstrates several indications and warnings of an impending invasion. Venezuela has declared the Esequibo region to be Venezuelan territory and has added the region to their official national map. Several officials have also declared that Venezuela will be creating a military zone in the region and issuing new ID cards to those living in remote villages throughout the area.
-Analyst Comments-
In terms of a military invasion, the actions by Venezuela may not result in much news due to the remote nature of the terrain. Most of this region is uncharted territory; there are no major cities or major highways in this “disputed” area, with this region hosting some of the largest untouched jungle on the continent. As such, Venezuela can dominate the terrain by creating FOBs in critical areas, by which oil surveys can be protected. From these Centers of Gravity, Venezuelan troops can occupy the region, without exercising complete control over every inch of the terrain. This may be good enough for Venezuela’s oil-pursuing intentions, but this does present vulnerabilities that can be exploited by a much smaller force.
However, this extremely remote terrain means that Venezuela’s actions can technically be described as an “invasion” or “occupation”, but will likely not take the form that many might think. Small groups of Venezuelan troops have already entered this area over the past few years, under the guise of combating illegal mining, so sporadic Venezuelan presence in the region is not unheard of. For more significant operations, Venezuela may place FOBs/firebases in the middle of the jungle and operate for weeks, with no opposition. What is likely to occur first is the establishment of Forward Arming and Refueling Points (FARPs) near the border, or just inside the Esequibo. This will be crucial to allow Venezuelan troops logistics hubs to refuel and stage operations for the construction of bases of operations within the region.
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Regarding concerns this invasion may have for the Homefront, the nationstate of Guyana is largely influenced by the controlling interests of ExxonMobil, due to the extremely oil-rich nature of the region but especially since the discovery of extensive petroleum fields in 2015. ExxonMobil produces a total of roughly 600,000+ BPD from the nation of Guyana (including extensive offshore production facilities). As a reminder for perspective, OPEC+ recently announced a voluntary production cut of 1 million BPD (on top of the 1 million BPD cut already in place). The seriousness of this situation could influence the global oil markets in ways not previously anticipated, as Venezuelan military operations raise the stakes of an already tumultuous oil market. History confirms that petroleum wars tend to result in Large Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) at some point, the gravity of which is usually ignored by a populace in the days leading up to a regional conflagration. The palpable irony of a large military power potentially invading their much smaller oil-rich neighbor due to historical territory claims may ring hollow for much of the American people, but unstable/high gas prices might result in more direct consequences being felt here at home. Though the atmospherics in the region fail to capture the gravity of the situation on the ground, right now it is too early to determine how far Venezuela will go, and how other power-players in the region will respond to these recent developments.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 1830Z December 7, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183007Z DEC 23
ICOD: 173007Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: U.S. BEGINS INVOLVEMENT IN VENEZUELA/GUYANA DISPUTE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: UN Secretary-General António Guterres invokes Article 99 of the United Nations Charter regarding the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. AC: Invoking Article 99 is a rarely utilized (and largely symbolic) gesture intended to raise awareness on a particular issue. In effect, this action mostly schedules a meeting to discuss the Gaza issue. This move is probably intended to keep the spotlight on the exceptionally desperate humanitarian crisis that is worsening within Gaza.
South America: Yesterday a Guyanese military helicopter crashed due to possible bad weather in the Esequibo near the Venezuelan border. Most of the personnel on board were high ranking military officers. Due to the restrictive terrain, rescue crews have not yet accessed the crash site. However, signs of life have reportedly been observed from the air. US SOUTHCOM has announced they will be conducting joint military exercises within Guyana’s airspace. AC: The “joint” nature of these exercises is probably overstated as Guyana has no attack aircraft whatsoever.
-Analyst Comments-
The US military flights within Esequibo are probably intended to deter Venezuelan aggression in the region, as well as to quietly serve as intelligence collection opportunities. However, the concept of deterrence assumes that the adversarial force knows and understands the consequences of such action. Right now, the chances are high for a random soldier in the jungle to fire off a MANPAD at any aircraft they don’t visually recognize. As such, the risks of conducting these “deterrence” operations are very high. Relying on countermeasures onboard aircraft as a safety measure is also a risky gamble, considering the adversary being one of the most technologically advanced military forces on the continent. A shootdown incident involving a US aircraft would be a great justification for the US to become directly involved in what would immediately become a wider conflict.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183007Z DEC 23
ICOD: 173007Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: U.S. BEGINS INVOLVEMENT IN VENEZUELA/GUYANA DISPUTE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: UN Secretary-General António Guterres invokes Article 99 of the United Nations Charter regarding the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. AC: Invoking Article 99 is a rarely utilized (and largely symbolic) gesture intended to raise awareness on a particular issue. In effect, this action mostly schedules a meeting to discuss the Gaza issue. This move is probably intended to keep the spotlight on the exceptionally desperate humanitarian crisis that is worsening within Gaza.
South America: Yesterday a Guyanese military helicopter crashed due to possible bad weather in the Esequibo near the Venezuelan border. Most of the personnel on board were high ranking military officers. Due to the restrictive terrain, rescue crews have not yet accessed the crash site. However, signs of life have reportedly been observed from the air. US SOUTHCOM has announced they will be conducting joint military exercises within Guyana’s airspace. AC: The “joint” nature of these exercises is probably overstated as Guyana has no attack aircraft whatsoever.
-Analyst Comments-
The US military flights within Esequibo are probably intended to deter Venezuelan aggression in the region, as well as to quietly serve as intelligence collection opportunities. However, the concept of deterrence assumes that the adversarial force knows and understands the consequences of such action. Right now, the chances are high for a random soldier in the jungle to fire off a MANPAD at any aircraft they don’t visually recognize. As such, the risks of conducting these “deterrence” operations are very high. Relying on countermeasures onboard aircraft as a safety measure is also a risky gamble, considering the adversary being one of the most technologically advanced military forces on the continent. A shootdown incident involving a US aircraft would be a great justification for the US to become directly involved in what would immediately become a wider conflict.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2200Z December 8, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220008Z DEC 23
ICOD: 213008Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: CHINA BEGINS MILITARY EXERCISES IVO TAIWAN. US VETOES GAZA CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL AT UN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South Pacific: China launches military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. AC: This is almost certainly a power-projection move intended to coincide with Taiwan’s own exercises to test defenses against a probable Chinese invasion. However, Taiwanese defense forces have noted the use of a spy balloon, similar to those which violated US airspace earlier this year.
South America: No new major developments on situation in Guyana.
Middle East: Fighting remains intense in Khan Younis as IDF troops seek to maintain a foothold in Gaza’s second-largest city. Skirmishes remain constant along the Lebanese border, as well as in West Bank. Today, the U.S. vetoes a UN Security Council resolution to call for a ceasefire within Gaza. AC: So far, the U.S. has rejected all proposals for a ceasefire as brought before the UN Security Council.
-Homefront-
USA: Following reports that the Senate has denied the latest aid package for Ukraine, limited unconfirmed reporting indicates conflict among defense officials. Specifically, SECDEF Lloyd Austin is reported to have directly threatened to deploy US troops to Ukraine, if the aid package is not approved. However, other reports indicate this quote is missing context, or the exact wording of this quote is incorrect.
-Analyst Comments-
Regardless of the specific wording, the sentiments expressed by defense officials remain dedicated to the continuation of the Ukrainian war, or more specifically defense production.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220008Z DEC 23
ICOD: 213008Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: CHINA BEGINS MILITARY EXERCISES IVO TAIWAN. US VETOES GAZA CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL AT UN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South Pacific: China launches military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. AC: This is almost certainly a power-projection move intended to coincide with Taiwan’s own exercises to test defenses against a probable Chinese invasion. However, Taiwanese defense forces have noted the use of a spy balloon, similar to those which violated US airspace earlier this year.
South America: No new major developments on situation in Guyana.
Middle East: Fighting remains intense in Khan Younis as IDF troops seek to maintain a foothold in Gaza’s second-largest city. Skirmishes remain constant along the Lebanese border, as well as in West Bank. Today, the U.S. vetoes a UN Security Council resolution to call for a ceasefire within Gaza. AC: So far, the U.S. has rejected all proposals for a ceasefire as brought before the UN Security Council.
-Homefront-
USA: Following reports that the Senate has denied the latest aid package for Ukraine, limited unconfirmed reporting indicates conflict among defense officials. Specifically, SECDEF Lloyd Austin is reported to have directly threatened to deploy US troops to Ukraine, if the aid package is not approved. However, other reports indicate this quote is missing context, or the exact wording of this quote is incorrect.
-Analyst Comments-
Regardless of the specific wording, the sentiments expressed by defense officials remain dedicated to the continuation of the Ukrainian war, or more specifically defense production.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
👍94🫡66❤9🌭8🤔2👀2🗿2🍌1
RR The Wire 1830Z December 9, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183009Z DEC 23
ICOD: 173009Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ELECTION TURMOIL IN GUATEMALA. U.S. BEGINS PROCESS OF EXPEDITING AFGHAN IMMIGRANTS FROM PAKISTAN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South America: Political turmoil strikes Guatemala regarding recent elections. The Public Prosecutor’s office is calling for criminal charges against President-Elect Bernardo Arévalo due to “election irregularities”. AC: Despite the claims of a coup grabbing headlines, there is more to the story than meets the eye. The specific “irregularities” that have been found by the Public Prosecutor’s office involve the alleged falsification of polling station certificates, and the manipulation of computer systems. However, the forensic evidence of these claims has not yet been made public. The claims of a “coup” have come about after the Public Prosecutor’s office has submitted a complaint to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to nullify and investigate the election.
Middle East: Following the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Juliana Noyes to Pakistan a few days ago, the U.S. has begun the process of expediting the immigration of Afghan refugees into the United States. As a reminder, Pakistan began the process of deporting all undocumented immigrants last month, which included around 1.7 million Afghan refugees.
South Africa: Yesterday the Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) party carried out a large nationwide voter registration campaign, along with rallies in support of the EFF.
-Homefront-
USA: The Senator Menendez corruption scandal continues following the revelation of new information. In June of 2022, the FBI raided Senator Bob Menendez’s home, finding $480,000 in cash, and a stack of gold bars. Recent disclosures highlight that some of the serial numbers on these gold bars match those of gold bars that were reported as being stolen during an armed robbery in 2013. These gold bars were allegedly used as payment for a bribe by the Egyptian government to influence the Senator.
-Analyst Comments-
In South Africa, the electoral interests of the EFF are certain to increase tensions during the 2024 election season, and could result in boiling points being reached in an already tumultuous society. Recent voter registration events are certainly a move intended to expand their influence and solidify political control in provinces such as Western Cape (which historically has been challenging for the EFF to get a foothold in). As a reminder, the EFF is South Africa’s third-largest political party, having recently risen to prominence following controversy surrounding the routinely militant and violent tactics used by supporters. The leader of the EFF is Julius Malema, who has been at the center of controversy following his calls for violence against white farmers.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183009Z DEC 23
ICOD: 173009Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ELECTION TURMOIL IN GUATEMALA. U.S. BEGINS PROCESS OF EXPEDITING AFGHAN IMMIGRANTS FROM PAKISTAN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South America: Political turmoil strikes Guatemala regarding recent elections. The Public Prosecutor’s office is calling for criminal charges against President-Elect Bernardo Arévalo due to “election irregularities”. AC: Despite the claims of a coup grabbing headlines, there is more to the story than meets the eye. The specific “irregularities” that have been found by the Public Prosecutor’s office involve the alleged falsification of polling station certificates, and the manipulation of computer systems. However, the forensic evidence of these claims has not yet been made public. The claims of a “coup” have come about after the Public Prosecutor’s office has submitted a complaint to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to nullify and investigate the election.
Middle East: Following the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Juliana Noyes to Pakistan a few days ago, the U.S. has begun the process of expediting the immigration of Afghan refugees into the United States. As a reminder, Pakistan began the process of deporting all undocumented immigrants last month, which included around 1.7 million Afghan refugees.
South Africa: Yesterday the Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) party carried out a large nationwide voter registration campaign, along with rallies in support of the EFF.
-Homefront-
USA: The Senator Menendez corruption scandal continues following the revelation of new information. In June of 2022, the FBI raided Senator Bob Menendez’s home, finding $480,000 in cash, and a stack of gold bars. Recent disclosures highlight that some of the serial numbers on these gold bars match those of gold bars that were reported as being stolen during an armed robbery in 2013. These gold bars were allegedly used as payment for a bribe by the Egyptian government to influence the Senator.
-Analyst Comments-
In South Africa, the electoral interests of the EFF are certain to increase tensions during the 2024 election season, and could result in boiling points being reached in an already tumultuous society. Recent voter registration events are certainly a move intended to expand their influence and solidify political control in provinces such as Western Cape (which historically has been challenging for the EFF to get a foothold in). As a reminder, the EFF is South Africa’s third-largest political party, having recently risen to prominence following controversy surrounding the routinely militant and violent tactics used by supporters. The leader of the EFF is Julius Malema, who has been at the center of controversy following his calls for violence against white farmers.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2030Z December 11, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 203011Z DEC 23
ICOD: 193011Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: TENSIONS INCREASE IN THE RED SEA. UKRAINE PEACE TALKS LIKELY TO BEGIN IN JANUARY.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea: Yemen announces what amounts to a blockade of the Red Sea for all Israeli-affiliated shipping. Yemeni forces have claimed that they will target all commercial shipping owned by or affiliated with Israeli companies. AC: It is unclear as to what Yemen’s standards are for shipping being “Israeli affiliated”. Throughout this conflict so far, many groups opposed to Israel have targeted American forces (such as American military bases in Iraq and Syria), or other nations that are in some way linked to Israel. Adding in international shipping norms complicates the situation further. Commercial shipping, on any given day, is a grand shell game. It is rare for a ship to be registered in the nation that it supplies. For instance, the M/V GALAXY LEADER (the first ship captured by Yemeni forces) has a rather confusing history. The vessel itself physically carries the flag of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas, a former British colony. This vessel was chartered by a Japanese company (NYK) to transport vehicles. However, the vessel is owned by Ray Car Carriers, which despite being registered as a business in the Isle of Man, was founded by an Israeli business magnate. Regarding the crew physically operating the vessel, 17 members of the crew are Filipino, and the rest are from an assortment of nations such as Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria, and so on. In the case of this one ship, at least a dozen nations are involved at some point regarding the operation of this vessel. This means that it’s rather difficult to determine what Yemen’s criteria is for a vessel being “Israeli-affiliated”, which in turn increases the risk for virtually all commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea.
Europe: In Switzerland, several media groups have announced the scheduling of peace talks regarding the Ukrainian war. During his visit to Argentina, Ukrainian President Zelensky floated the idea that peace talks will begin at the World Economic Forum, the day before that event gets underway in January. AC: If these claims are true, the peace talks taking place at such an infamous organization clearly sends a message as to the controlling interests at play regarding a post-war Ukraine.
-Homefront-
USA: The DoD announces the implementation of the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) to send arms to Israel. This Act allows the DoD to bypass the normal process and send arms to Israel without Congressional approval. In this case, this law is allegedly being used to send tank shells to Israel, though without Congressional oversight there is little confirmation of any of these details.
-Analyst Comments-
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 203011Z DEC 23
ICOD: 193011Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: TENSIONS INCREASE IN THE RED SEA. UKRAINE PEACE TALKS LIKELY TO BEGIN IN JANUARY.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea: Yemen announces what amounts to a blockade of the Red Sea for all Israeli-affiliated shipping. Yemeni forces have claimed that they will target all commercial shipping owned by or affiliated with Israeli companies. AC: It is unclear as to what Yemen’s standards are for shipping being “Israeli affiliated”. Throughout this conflict so far, many groups opposed to Israel have targeted American forces (such as American military bases in Iraq and Syria), or other nations that are in some way linked to Israel. Adding in international shipping norms complicates the situation further. Commercial shipping, on any given day, is a grand shell game. It is rare for a ship to be registered in the nation that it supplies. For instance, the M/V GALAXY LEADER (the first ship captured by Yemeni forces) has a rather confusing history. The vessel itself physically carries the flag of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas, a former British colony. This vessel was chartered by a Japanese company (NYK) to transport vehicles. However, the vessel is owned by Ray Car Carriers, which despite being registered as a business in the Isle of Man, was founded by an Israeli business magnate. Regarding the crew physically operating the vessel, 17 members of the crew are Filipino, and the rest are from an assortment of nations such as Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria, and so on. In the case of this one ship, at least a dozen nations are involved at some point regarding the operation of this vessel. This means that it’s rather difficult to determine what Yemen’s criteria is for a vessel being “Israeli-affiliated”, which in turn increases the risk for virtually all commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea.
Europe: In Switzerland, several media groups have announced the scheduling of peace talks regarding the Ukrainian war. During his visit to Argentina, Ukrainian President Zelensky floated the idea that peace talks will begin at the World Economic Forum, the day before that event gets underway in January. AC: If these claims are true, the peace talks taking place at such an infamous organization clearly sends a message as to the controlling interests at play regarding a post-war Ukraine.
-Homefront-
USA: The DoD announces the implementation of the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) to send arms to Israel. This Act allows the DoD to bypass the normal process and send arms to Israel without Congressional approval. In this case, this law is allegedly being used to send tank shells to Israel, though without Congressional oversight there is little confirmation of any of these details.
-Analyst Comments-
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As mentioned before, the information warfare that the western world has experienced regarding the Ukrainian war has been overwhelming. As such, after several years of such efforts, reality will be surprising to many. For years, the official narrative has essentially been “Ukraine is winning, Russia is about to surrender”. It will be rather shocking for many people to learn that the inverse has always been a more accurate depiction of the truth. Right now, Ukraine’s capitulation is not an “if”, but “when”. Consequently, events in the international arena will likely happen rather quickly as no one really knows what a peace deal might look like. Generally speaking, theories abound regarding if a peace deal will include the loss of territory, but this scenario is quite likely and almost certain for the districts that have been under Russian control for some time. Another major factor in question is a problem faced by all military occupations…when peace breaks out thousands of troops and billions of dollars will no longer be tied down by operations. As it has become socially acceptable to theorize that the Military Industrial Complex has largely been the driving force behind this war, in a case of peace those efforts will require another conflict to support. For those not concerned with the conflict in Ukraine, it is this factor that may have direct consequences for the Homefront.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2030Z December 12, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 203012Z DEC 23
ICOD: 193012Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: REVELATIONS OF DOMESTIC U.S. SPYING CONTINUE. ISRAEL FACES FIERCE RESISTANCE IN KHAN YOUNIS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Israel makes progress in the consolidation of the northern pocket encircling Gaza City. In the north, Hezbollah continues harassing attacks and border skirmishes as before. However, IDF units have experienced heavy resistance in Khan Younis to the south, and have taken heavy casualties. IED attacks and extreme-close-range ambushes are very common as Israeli forces advance deeper into the Gaza Strip. Hamas militants continue rocket attacks regularly, though the volume of which is difficult to judge. Regarding civilians, the humanitarian crisis worsens as the flow of humanitarian aid is not enough to keep up with the demand. AC: With most structures in Gaza City suffering damage of some kind, hundreds of thousands of people are displaced or living amongst the rubble of their former homes. This creates challenges for the distribution of international aid. In the north, IDF officials have repeatedly issued warnings to Hezbollah over the past few days, indicating concerns with Hezbollah possibly opening up another major front in earnest. So far, Hezbollah rocket attacks and ATGM attacks on border checkpoints and LP/OPs have been regular, but not indicative of a major Hezbollah military operation.
-Homefront-
USA: A Congressional investigation has revealed that many popular pharmacies in the U.S. share customer medical records with law enforcement, without a warrant. In the letter sent to the US Department of Health and Human Services, questions also remain regarding the investigative tactics that would require the medical information contained by a pharmacy. AC: Though not explicitly stated or referenced in the official Congressional documentation, the implications of this are concerning considering context of the medical targeting that has taken place over the past few years.
In a similar vein, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) is coming to an end in December. Consequently, Congress has been drafting an update to this legislation over the past few months to pick up when the current law expires. However, legal analysts have noted that while the update to Section 702 is being touted as being less-privacy-invasive for Americans, the inverse is actually true.
-Analyst Comments-
It has been a rough week for domestic spying revelations for the American public. Regarding the scandal surrounding Section 702 of FISA, as the revisions currently stand the proposed changes read like a Patriot Act 2.0, granting virtually unlimited domestic surveillance capabilities to most federal agencies, all without a warrant. Currently, FISA regulations are intended to allow spying on non-US Persons for homeland security without a warrant. As such, a behemoth of organizational efforts exist to streamline this surveillance process. However, any US Persons who may end up part of an investigation would require a warrant and justification to be included in surveillance operations. The latest drafts of the update to Section 702 remove this requirement in most cases, allowing federal tactics intended to surveil non-citizens to be used against US citizens. Most of the specific concerns come from the changing of definitions. This is a classic tactic to slowly mission-creep legislation without much notice or attention. First pass the law, with all eyes on it, then over the years “update” or “modernize” the terms contained within, which ends up changing the entire meaning of the original text. This appears to be the source of much consternation regarding this legislation.
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 203012Z DEC 23
ICOD: 193012Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: REVELATIONS OF DOMESTIC U.S. SPYING CONTINUE. ISRAEL FACES FIERCE RESISTANCE IN KHAN YOUNIS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Israel makes progress in the consolidation of the northern pocket encircling Gaza City. In the north, Hezbollah continues harassing attacks and border skirmishes as before. However, IDF units have experienced heavy resistance in Khan Younis to the south, and have taken heavy casualties. IED attacks and extreme-close-range ambushes are very common as Israeli forces advance deeper into the Gaza Strip. Hamas militants continue rocket attacks regularly, though the volume of which is difficult to judge. Regarding civilians, the humanitarian crisis worsens as the flow of humanitarian aid is not enough to keep up with the demand. AC: With most structures in Gaza City suffering damage of some kind, hundreds of thousands of people are displaced or living amongst the rubble of their former homes. This creates challenges for the distribution of international aid. In the north, IDF officials have repeatedly issued warnings to Hezbollah over the past few days, indicating concerns with Hezbollah possibly opening up another major front in earnest. So far, Hezbollah rocket attacks and ATGM attacks on border checkpoints and LP/OPs have been regular, but not indicative of a major Hezbollah military operation.
-Homefront-
USA: A Congressional investigation has revealed that many popular pharmacies in the U.S. share customer medical records with law enforcement, without a warrant. In the letter sent to the US Department of Health and Human Services, questions also remain regarding the investigative tactics that would require the medical information contained by a pharmacy. AC: Though not explicitly stated or referenced in the official Congressional documentation, the implications of this are concerning considering context of the medical targeting that has taken place over the past few years.
In a similar vein, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) is coming to an end in December. Consequently, Congress has been drafting an update to this legislation over the past few months to pick up when the current law expires. However, legal analysts have noted that while the update to Section 702 is being touted as being less-privacy-invasive for Americans, the inverse is actually true.
-Analyst Comments-
It has been a rough week for domestic spying revelations for the American public. Regarding the scandal surrounding Section 702 of FISA, as the revisions currently stand the proposed changes read like a Patriot Act 2.0, granting virtually unlimited domestic surveillance capabilities to most federal agencies, all without a warrant. Currently, FISA regulations are intended to allow spying on non-US Persons for homeland security without a warrant. As such, a behemoth of organizational efforts exist to streamline this surveillance process. However, any US Persons who may end up part of an investigation would require a warrant and justification to be included in surveillance operations. The latest drafts of the update to Section 702 remove this requirement in most cases, allowing federal tactics intended to surveil non-citizens to be used against US citizens. Most of the specific concerns come from the changing of definitions. This is a classic tactic to slowly mission-creep legislation without much notice or attention. First pass the law, with all eyes on it, then over the years “update” or “modernize” the terms contained within, which ends up changing the entire meaning of the original text. This appears to be the source of much consternation regarding this legislation.
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As this scandal has garnered public attention, Speaker Johnson has pulled these updates from the floor until next year. Right now, Congress is working on a 4-month extension for Section 702, while the drafts can be updated, and the vote can quietly occur without as much public attention. As a reminder, it was Speaker Johnson himself who rushed this legislation forward to a hasty vote in the first place, with the drafts moving forward for public viewing last week.
Though the revelations regarding medical surveillance are recently coming to light in the MSM, this practice has been standard for a long time. Simply put, the warrantless surveillance of Americans has become industrialized to the point of sheer exhaustion. However, it is important to note the level of local complicity in this matter. Rather than simply requesting access to an online database, several companies have revealed that the practice is largely handled on the ground by each individual store; meaning that a local LE entity can walk into a store, speak with the local manager, and obtain whatever information they want about any customer…all without a warrant.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
Though the revelations regarding medical surveillance are recently coming to light in the MSM, this practice has been standard for a long time. Simply put, the warrantless surveillance of Americans has become industrialized to the point of sheer exhaustion. However, it is important to note the level of local complicity in this matter. Rather than simply requesting access to an online database, several companies have revealed that the practice is largely handled on the ground by each individual store; meaning that a local LE entity can walk into a store, speak with the local manager, and obtain whatever information they want about any customer…all without a warrant.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2330Z December 13, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233013Z DEC 23
ICOD: 223013Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: THREATS TO SHIPPING CONTINUE IN THE RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The United Nations General Assembly votes in favor of the implementation of a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. AC: Like most matters within the field of international diplomacy, these resolutions have no real power. However, as the final vote was 153 nations for, and 10 nations against (with 23 abstentions) this is a good indicator of international sentiment regarding the current conflict in Gaza.
In the Red Sea, Yemeni forces attacked the M/V STRINDA with a cruise missile. Initial reporting indicates the vessel was traveling IVO the Bab el Mandeb Strait at the time of the strike. AC: Though Norwegian flagged, this chemical tanker was scheduled to make a port call in Israel next month. This comes on the heels of the French frigate LANGUEDOC (D653) reporting the interception of two Yemeni drones attempting to target her in the same area four days ago.
Europe: A report by the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy indicates that much of the critical infrastructure throughout the United Kingdom is exceptionally vulnerable to cyberattacks. AC: This comes as no surprise as cyberattack threats remain constant throughout most of the western world.
-Homefront-
USA: The U.S. sends an additional $200 million to Ukraine. Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed at an all-time high of 37,090. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished the day with similar highs.
-Analyst Comments-
Economic pundits are claiming these numbers are the result of the Federal Reserve signaling rate cuts next year. However, exercising caution would be wise when assessing risk in highly-manipulated financial markets.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233013Z DEC 23
ICOD: 223013Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: THREATS TO SHIPPING CONTINUE IN THE RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The United Nations General Assembly votes in favor of the implementation of a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. AC: Like most matters within the field of international diplomacy, these resolutions have no real power. However, as the final vote was 153 nations for, and 10 nations against (with 23 abstentions) this is a good indicator of international sentiment regarding the current conflict in Gaza.
In the Red Sea, Yemeni forces attacked the M/V STRINDA with a cruise missile. Initial reporting indicates the vessel was traveling IVO the Bab el Mandeb Strait at the time of the strike. AC: Though Norwegian flagged, this chemical tanker was scheduled to make a port call in Israel next month. This comes on the heels of the French frigate LANGUEDOC (D653) reporting the interception of two Yemeni drones attempting to target her in the same area four days ago.
Europe: A report by the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy indicates that much of the critical infrastructure throughout the United Kingdom is exceptionally vulnerable to cyberattacks. AC: This comes as no surprise as cyberattack threats remain constant throughout most of the western world.
-Homefront-
USA: The U.S. sends an additional $200 million to Ukraine. Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed at an all-time high of 37,090. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished the day with similar highs.
-Analyst Comments-
Economic pundits are claiming these numbers are the result of the Federal Reserve signaling rate cuts next year. However, exercising caution would be wise when assessing risk in highly-manipulated financial markets.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2130Z December 14, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213014Z DEC 23
ICOD: 203014Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: CONGRESS PASSES EXTENSION OF FISA SECTION 702.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center reports the interception of a distress call from a vessel reporting a boarding incident in the eastern Gulf of Aden. Many reports of irregular activity have been made over the past few weeks as Yemeni forces seek to continue the targeting of Israeli-affiliated shipping in the Red Sea.
South America: Despite little new information on the Guyana situation, tensions remain high in the region. Venezuela has issued a 90-day ultimatum to ExxonMobil for the cessation of all operations within the Stabroek Block oil field in the EEZ of Guyana. This ultimatum expires in March, 2024.
-Homefront-
USA: The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passes the FY 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), including the controversial extension of FISA Section 702. This $886 billion annual defense bill was passed immediately before Congress begins their vacation break for the holidays.
-Analyst Comments-
As threats to maritime shipping continue, the costs associated with commercial shipping will likely increase. Though the number of vessels being targeted in the Red Sea is small (considering this is one of the most highly trafficked waterways in the world), direct kinetic threats to shipping usually attract international attention. As such, most nations with the ability to project Naval power have quietly increased presence patrols in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213014Z DEC 23
ICOD: 203014Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: CONGRESS PASSES EXTENSION OF FISA SECTION 702.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center reports the interception of a distress call from a vessel reporting a boarding incident in the eastern Gulf of Aden. Many reports of irregular activity have been made over the past few weeks as Yemeni forces seek to continue the targeting of Israeli-affiliated shipping in the Red Sea.
South America: Despite little new information on the Guyana situation, tensions remain high in the region. Venezuela has issued a 90-day ultimatum to ExxonMobil for the cessation of all operations within the Stabroek Block oil field in the EEZ of Guyana. This ultimatum expires in March, 2024.
-Homefront-
USA: The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passes the FY 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), including the controversial extension of FISA Section 702. This $886 billion annual defense bill was passed immediately before Congress begins their vacation break for the holidays.
-Analyst Comments-
As threats to maritime shipping continue, the costs associated with commercial shipping will likely increase. Though the number of vessels being targeted in the Red Sea is small (considering this is one of the most highly trafficked waterways in the world), direct kinetic threats to shipping usually attract international attention. As such, most nations with the ability to project Naval power have quietly increased presence patrols in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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