//The Wire//2130Z January 27, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TRUCKER PROTESTS BEGIN ORGANIZING FOR SOUTHERN U.S. BORDER//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: As the war in Gaza continues, Israel amplifies rhetoric indicating possible actions in Lebanon. Israeli forces have been observed to increase defenses along the northern border with Lebanon over the past couple of months, but it is unclear as to if this is a continuation of previous defensive tactics, or if this is an indicator of a widening conflict. AC: At this point, it’s unlikely that Israel would expand the conflict into Lebanon (yet) whilst being bogged-down and fully committed in Gaza. However, as this conflict has remained one of the most vicious in recent memory, anything goes.
Red Sea/HOA: The fire onboard the M/V MARLIN LUANDA continues. The crew has not abandoned ship, and the general plan appears to be to let the fire burn out as long as more compartments do not become affected. This vessel is reportedly carrying a cargo of aviation fuel, owing to the intensity of the flames as first observed immediately after the strike.
-HomeFront-
TX: AG Paxton has formally requested the DHS to provide proof that the United States actually owns the disputed land along the border in Eagle Pass. Paxton has specifically requested plat maps showing the exact boundaries of the property that the United States allegedly owns.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: By far, the situation in Texas is being treated more seriously on the internet and social media than by power-players in real life. Of note, there are protests planned in support of Texas’s border stance, the most notable of which is the Southern Border Convoy which is scheduled to begin on January 29th and transit the Eagle Pass area on February 3rd. So far it’s not clear as to if any demonstrations are planned for locations that would present a high risk of False Falg operations. However, as the southern border is one of the most sensor-dense locations in the United States, prudence and situational awareness is always recommended.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z January 29, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: THREE U.S. SERVICE MEMBERS KILLED IN NORTHERN JORDAN, DOZENS WOUNDED//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Yesterday three American service members were killed, and 34 wounded in a kamikaze drone strike on a covert base in northern Jordan. The strike appears to have targeted a tent serving as temporary billeting for transient personnel traveling through the base.
Red Sea/HOA: The fire onboard the M/V MARLIN LUANDA has reportedly been extinguished. The vessel is being escorted by coalition warships as she attempts to make port.
-HomeFront-
TX: No major developments as Texas continues strengthening positions along the border. However, now that the crossing IVO Eagle Pass is largely closed, illegals have been observed bypassing most of the obstacles, crossing illegally into the U.S. just a few miles away from Eagle Pass where there are no barriers or efforts to stop them.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In Jordan, considering there are multiple bases in the region that are host to Special Operations, confusion persists as to the location of the base itself. There are two larger forward operating bases in the region, the more overt of which is Al-Tanf (also called At-Tanf), which is in Syria, approximately 13 miles northwest of the triple point of the Iraqi, Syrian, and Jordanian borders.
The other site is a different Tactical Base, known to the public as Tower 22, located about 15 miles away in Jordan, roughly half a mile inside the border. Officially, CENTCOM has not confirmed the name of the base that was struck, mentioning an unnamed base in “northeast Jordan”, which through process of elimination is almost certainly Tower 22.
Additionally, no independent verification of battle damage will be obtained by open-source satellite imagery as the next Sentinel 2A pass is scheduled for Feb 11. By then, American forces will have repaired or concealed the damage.
In response to the strike, substantial strategic resources have been observed moving into the Middle East theatre. It is certain that the U.S. is planning substantial airstrikes in retaliation for the targeting of At-Tanf. However, the target is less clear. Though impossible to judge at this time, it is possible that this may be the tipping point for the U.S. to conduct strikes in Iran, as several U.S. politicians have openly been advocating for.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 30, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: U.S. AIRSTRIKES IN MIDDLE EAST LIKELY IMMINENT//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Protests in France intensify following public outrage over taxation issues. French farmers have been protesting in earnest for months, with demonstrations reaching historic levels within the past few weeks. Demonstrations have also become increasingly kinetic, with larger disruptions becoming more common around the country.
Middle East: Preparations continue for the American retaliatory strike against Iranian targets. AC: Due to the substantial buildup of forces in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, Iraq, and Israel, retaliatory strikes will likely begin very soon.
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni forces continue to streamline the blockade of Western shipping. Several suspicious approaches have been reported by cargo vessels transiting the region over the past few days, but it is unclear as to if these incidents are related to Houthi targeting or if this is more a situation of routine piracy.
-HomeFront-
TX: No major changes in TXNG border posture. In Kurten, TX an explosion was reported at Feather Crest Farms, the cause of which is unknown ATT. The facility is currently burning, and local authorities expect the fire to last several days. Feather Crest Farms is an egg supplier that was recently purchased by MPS Egg Farms in Indiana, and at this facility maintains about one million egg laying hens, and employs just under 100 people.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though no one knows with any certainty as to what the US response to the Tower 22 drone strike will be, speculation of possible strikes is largely centered around Iranian bases in Syria or Naval vessels in the Red Sea or Arabian Gulf. However, as the DoD has already stated the preparations for strikes will take a few days to stage for, this strongly indicates that the plethora of strategic assets already in theatre to combat Houthi forces are not enough to carry out the retaliatory strikes the US is planning for Iranian forces or “proxies”.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 31, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROTESTS IN EUROPE ESCALATE//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Protests in France intensified yesterday afternoon as farmers succeeded in encircling Paris, stopping traffic along all major roads into the city. Preparations are underway in Belgium, Italy, and Germany to prepare for similar ongoing demonstrations that are also becoming increasingly volatile. Mass arrests have been reported at some of the more high-profile venues targeted for demonstrations, but most authorities have struggled to stop the sheer number of people protesting.
Far East: Taiwanese Defense Forces have noted an increase in PLA activity in the Taiwan Strait over the past few days. AC: This is a slight increase in the baseline trends of Chinese activity in the region. Probably not indicative of major operations, but notable as around a dozen PLA aircraft have been violating Taiwan’s ADIZ daily for weeks.
Middle East: Preparations continue for American retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets. AC: Rhetoric among diplomats and politicians leaking information to the press indicates that the response to the Tower 22 drone strike may be more of a long-term strategic campaign rather than a limited retaliatory engagement. As any theory on this possible campaign will be purely speculative, it is possible that the rhetoric that is being made public is an attempt to set expectations for future combat operations.
-HomeFront-
OK: A natural gas pipeline experienced a blowout in the vicinity of Elmwood last night. The resulting explosion was observed by locals almost 40 miles away. Authorities have not released any details regarding the cause of the blast.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As demonstrations become more serious throughout Europe, the responses to protests will likely become more kinetic as well. In France, social tensions have become increasingly anti-government in nature. Last night, President Macron attended a royal gala hosted by the Swedish royal family as part of a state visit to Stockholm. The optics of this visit, at a time when the French are increasingly facing domestic troubles, has not been well received by demonstrators throughout the country who have drawn the links between history and this perceived “let them eat cake” moment. Similar sentiments are being expressed in Belgium, where farmer protests have been met with comparatively heavy-handed responses by authorities.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z February 1, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE, DESPITE LACK OF MEDIA COVERAGE//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: An acid attack wounds 12 people in southwest London. The attacker has been identified as 35 year old Abdul Shokoor Ezedi. The attacker remains a fugitive as a woman and her two children remain hospitalized from the attack.
Belgium: Protests intensify at the headquarters of the European Union in Brussels. Farmers protesting against the climate agenda have sought to disrupt EU summit meetings, which have been convened to provide more financial support to Ukraine.
Middle East: U.S. defense officials have confirmed that airstrikes will be conducted against Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria. AC: Letting an adversary know where military actions are going to take place is likely to result in a continuation in the decline of both the combat effectiveness and the prestige of the U.S. military. Iranian groups and “proxies” are ready for retaliation and have had many days to prepare and move forces away from where the U.S. has already confirmed strikes will take place.
-HomeFront-
IN: This afternoon the BP refinery in Whiting experienced an emergency power failure, prompting evacuations of the facility. It is unclear as to what caused the power failure, but large flares are expected to be observed at the facility as technicians vent and burn off gasses to prevent an explosion. AC: This is not particularly out of the ordinary for most industrial facilities of this size. However with increased scrutiny following the years of deliberate sabotage of critical infrastructure, suspicions come easily as to the causes of incidents like this.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Throughout Europe, food shortages have been noted at many grocery stores as products are not making it to store shelves due to demonstrations (both the demonstrations of truck drivers, and the constriction of the flow of traffic).
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 2, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: U.S. BEGINS RETALIATORY STRIKES IN SYRIA//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Farmer protests continue to cause widespread disruptions throughout much of mainland western Europe. Major roads remain blocked surrounding government buildings in Brussels, Paris, and Arnhem as demonstrations become more organized and widespread. International border crossings between many European nations have also been blockaded by demonstrators as a result of climate agenda trade policies. Last night, mass farmer protests began in earnest in Ireland, contributing to the millions of people demonstrating against the climate agenda throughout Europe.
Middle East: American forces have begun retaliatory strikes against Iranian proxy forces in Syria. So far, bombings have been reported near Deir ez-Zor and al-Mayadeen, and limited strikes have been reported in Abu Kamal. CENTCOM has confirmed that 85 targets were struck throughout Syria.
-HomeFront-
NY: A construction worker was killed when a basement collapsed during a construction project in Brooklyn. No further information at this time.
TX: Border posture continues as before, with TXNG continuing to improve obstacles along the border. Florida has authorized the deployment of FLNG resources to assist with border fortifications, along with Florida State Guard (FLSG) forces, which are being deployed for the first time. Roughly 1,000 FLSG troops are being deployed to Texas.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The value of citizen-monitored ADS-B receivers has been demonstrated by the latest strikes against Iranian targets in Syria. Even though operational prudence would obviously result in bomber aircraft turning off transponders, this did not happen. The electronic signatures presented by dozens of military aircraft in the lead up to this attack was obvious to anyone who bothered to open up a flight tracking app. Additionally, press releases from defense officials confirmed that bombers were in the air, and on the way to their targets in Syria. Ordinarily, openly giving an adversary this much intelligence would be utter madness, but this was almost certainly done to provide Iran as much warning as possible (to avoid retaliation). The side benefit for taxpayers is that this allows the real-time monitoring of real-world operations.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z February 3, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: INITIAL BDA OF AMERICAN STRIKES UNDERWHELMING//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: A stabbing attack in Paris wounded three at Gare de Lyon railway station yesterday. The assailant is reportedly a refugee from Mali.
Middle East: Initial assessment of the American strikes in Syria indicates little damage. The substantial warnings given to Iranian forces also resulted in very few casualties (around a couple dozen deaths at first count by local forces).
Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting of both commercial and Naval vessels continues throughout the region. Yesterday, CENTCOM officials stated that strikes were conducted against 4x targets in Yemen, and aircraft from the USS EISENHOWER CSG shot down 7x drones over the Red Sea. Today, 6x strikes were conducted in Yemen, allegedly against missiles staged to launch against shipping in the region.
-HomeFront-
NY: City officials have launched a $53 million campaign to distribute funds directly to illegal immigrants via Immediate Response Cards, i.e. prepaid credit cards. Like most other welfare programs, cards will be refilled with funds every month, but unlike pre-existing SNAP benefits, the only accountability for funding under this new process involves illegals signing documentation promising to only use the cards for food.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though comparing numbers of munitions (instead of tonnage and/or munition type) is not the most accurate depiction of combat power, 159 attacks on US forces throughout the Middle East have been reported since Oct 7, whereas only 125 individual munitions were dropped last night. For reference, Israel has been dropping roughly 1,000 bombs per day in Gaza. As such, the strikes observed so far appear to largely be ineffective at reducing the combat power of Iranian proxy forces in the region. Additionally, it is unclear as to if this targeting is representative of a one-shot retaliation, or if the longer-duration campaign hinted at previously will come to fruition. As it stands, retaliatory strikes may be barely above the baseline of activity for the region, and may be difficult to discern from the routine targeting efforts undertaken by combat forces.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z February 5, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: BORDER CRISIS CONTINUES DESPITE IMPROVMENTS//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: King Charles III has been diagnosed with cancer. In the statements provided by Buckingham Palace the type of cancer was not disclosed. No further information at this time.
Red Sea/HOA: U.S. targeting of Houthi sites continues to become more regular. However, as no intelligence or BDA products have been made public, the effectiveness of American targeting is unclear.
-HomeFront-
TX: Substantial fortification efforts continue along the southern border in Eagle Pass. In a press statement released yesterday, the Alaska Army National Guard has revealed plans to deploy limited forces to the southern border under federal Title 10 orders. AC: Additional statements indicate that this deployment involves few troops (only a couple of helicopters and support staff), and is not in coordination with Operation Lone Star.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Independent journalists on the ground at the southern US border continue to document the largely open border. Texas, being highly motivated to show the grand efforts to secure high-profile border crossings, struggles to stem the tide of illegal immigration even just a few miles from the obstacles in Eagle Pass.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z February 6, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: HOUTHI TARGETING CONTINUES IN RED SEA. BORDER CRISIS CONTINUES AT HOME.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Yesterday, CENTCOM confirmed U.S. forces engaged 2x Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs) that were allegedly being staged for an attack. No additional details were provided regarding this alleged newly-fielded weapons system. AC: It is also unclear what intelligence indicated these vessels were intended to be USVs or if these were simply unoccupied vessels. The use of USVs would be an expected escalation to be relied upon by Houthi forces, but it is unclear as to if this incident is an accurate representation of this potential escalation.
Yemeni forces meanwhile continue operations to target what few Western commercial shipping vessels attempt to transit the Red Sea. Cruise missile and kamikaze drone attacks have dwindled following the grand transition of most shipping to the Cape Route. However, Houthi attacks on U.S. Navy vessels continue regularly, as do attacks on any vessel that does not abide by Yemeni transit procedures. This morning, unidentified personnel aboard a small craft attacked a commercial vessel with a possible RPG in the southern Red Sea.
-HomeFront-
TX: Yesterday a consortium of conservative Governors assembled for various press events in Eagle Pass. This event comes as doubts begin to grow regarding the effectiveness of the operation in Eagle Pass. According to Texas officials, around 3,000 immigrants were crossing the border in Eagle Pass daily, prior to the increased fortification efforts. That number has allegedly dropped to an average of three encounters per day (in just the areas where fortifications have been made).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: It is important to note that the entirety of the fortifications in Eagle Pass are protecting but a few hundred meters of the southern U.S. border. Without question, the nearly 100% decrease in illegal border crossings in Eagle Pass is almost certainly due to most illegals being redirected just a few miles away from the high-profile areas around Shelby Park…and away from the preying eyes of journalists with cameras. A few hundred meters of concertina wire is not likely to overcome the substantial federal (and Organizations that are allegedly Non-Governmental) influence to increase the ease of illegal border crossings.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1730Z February 7, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE. USMC HELICOPTER MISSING NEAR SAN DIEGO.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
CA: A USMC CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter has gone missing in transit from Creech Air Force Base in Nevada to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar. SAR efforts are underway as an initial search of the last reported position yielded no results. Ground crews have also been delayed due to the extreme weather conditions (and rugged terrain) in the area that the aircraft went missing in.
AC: According to open-source ADS-B tracking data, TIGER11 was last observed flying over Cleveland National Forest IVO 11SNS5380026563, cruising at a speed of 113 kts, on a bearing of 323 degrees. Though it is too early to determine precise details regarding this incident, in the interest of expediency, it is possible that ADS-B data indicates the CH-53E was on a collision course with a ridgeline IVO 11SNS5363826791. Again, not knowing details, a possible search area is likely to include the drainage on the following side of the ridge, IVO 11SNS5340427122, as well as the wooded area on the valley floor IVO 11SNS5320427393.
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Houthi forces continue their attacks on commercial shipping, targeting two cargo vessels yesterday. The M/V STAR NASIA was targeted by several cruise missiles which impacted near the ship causing minor damage. The M/V MORNING TIDE was also targeted with three cruise missiles unsuccessfully.
The Royal Navy has decided to withdraw the HMS DIAMOND from theatre. Official statements suggest this is for maintenance reasons following a few months of combat service. The DIAMOND was the only Royal Navy vessel contributing to the American OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN and will be replaced by the HMS RICHMOND.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the timing of the HMS DIAMOND’s replacement appears to be early, speculation remains as to the true reason of this replacement. Yemeni forces claim to have damaged the vessel, owing to the early withdrawal. However, Houthi forces claim to sink almost every vessel in theatre, so this source is unreliable at best and no information corroborates these claims. What is more likely is that the toll paid by brief combat service against a largely insurgent force using improvised weapons is more than the Type 45 Destroyer program can maintain, especially following years of scandal related to their combat effectiveness.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z February 8, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: USMC HELICOPTER FOUND IN CALIFORNIA, NO SURVIVORS REPORTED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The U.S. conducted multiple airstrikes in Baghdad overnight, targeting senior leadership of local Kataib Hezbollah brigades. This is a continuation of the sporadic strikes that have been conducted in the region since the attack on the US Tower 22 base in Jordan.
Far East: Taiwanese and American tensions with China have escalated following the quiet announcement that the U.S. will permanently station Special Forces troops at observation posts on the islands of Kinmen and Matsu. These troops will be supporting the Taiwanese 101st Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion.
Europe: Widespread protests continue as before. In Spain, demonstrators have begun blocking distribution centers for grocery store chains affiliated with the climate agenda. This follows protesters in France using agricultural equipment to dig up the pavement in grocery store parking lots that have pledged support for climate policies.
-HomeFront-
CA: The search has concluded for TIGER11, the CH-53E that went down early yesterday morning. Rescue teams have located the crash site in Pine Valley, and have begun recovering the remains of all 5 crew members. No further details have been provided on the cause or exact location of the crash.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Despite much thought to the contrary, Taiwan is not merely one island many miles off the coast of mainland China. Taiwan has claimed several of the very small islands immediately off the coast of the mainland. For instance, Kinmen Island is located in the heart of Weitou Bay, which is host to a major Chinese logistics hub and the nearby city of Xiamen. The Mashan Observation Post (where US Forces are stationed) is literally two miles from the Chinese mainland. For reference, Ellis Island is about a mile from Manhattan. Though this observation post has been operational for many years (as a propaganda broadcast station), the public admittance of a permanent US presence will likely lead to increased tensions in the region.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2230Z February 9, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SITUATION IN GAZA DETERIORATING. FARMER PROTESTS CONTINUE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The situation in Gaza, having deteriorated significantly over the past few weeks, has become increasingly more serious following the increase of tensions between Israel and Egypt. These tensions come as Israeli rhetoric increasingly indicates imminent operations in areas close to the Egyptian border. This afternoon, Israeli sources have announced the commencement of operations in Rafah, ordering the evacuation of the city in advance of the invasion. Similarly in the north, large military “exercises” near the Lebanese border have also exacerbated the situation, and possibly could be an indication of a widening conflict.
Europe: Farmer protests continue as before. Including now well over two dozen nations, protests and demonstrations remain highly variable in different locations. In Spain and France, demonstrations are quite kinetic, with police largely not effective in reducing the impact of protesters actions. In Italy demonstrations continue consistently, and in Wales demonstrations remain fairly docile as protests begin to get underway.
Switzerland: A 32 year old Iranian asylum applicant armed with an ax held 15 people hostage on a train in Yverdon last night. After several hours of negotiation, the assailant was shot by police breaching the train. No hostages were injured during the ordeal.
-HomeFront-
HI: An earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 6.3 has struck the Big Island. No word yet on any additional concerns.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though information warfare has become staggering at this point in the war, Israeli intentions to occupy the Philadelphi corridor are quite clear. Following announcements of evacuations being ordered for the city of Rafah this afternoon, it is certain that Israel intends to occupy the city. Both of these events have been described as “red line” issues for Egypt. In the North, indications and warnings are stacking up, pointing to possible Israeli actions in Lebanon. A large buildup of forces has been observed in the north along the border, but it is unclear as to if this is a textbook military deception tactic (possible a Feint, or more likely a Display). Though opening up additional geographically-opposing fronts at a time where the vast majority of Israeli forces are bogged down in urban warfare is not generally in keeping with good military strategy, it is possible that Netanyahu may bite off more than he can chew, with the intent of forcing more direct US involvement. The other possibility is that Israel knows a war with Lebanon and/or Egypt would be utterly devastating, and as such are dangling this threat as a way of obtaining more support. Either way, this is a serious gamble.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1630Z February 10, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAEL PREPARES FOR INVASION OF RAFAH, EGYPT RESPONDS BY POSTURING.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Israel continues to prepare for large scale combat operations in Rafah. In response, Egypt has deployed multiple battalions from the 4th Armored Division (of the 3rd Field Army) to the border region. Israeli forces also continue to stage in the North, and operations continue in Gaza City and Khan Younis as before.
Red Sea/HOA: The U.S. continues to conduct (now) routine strikes in Yemen, allegedly targeting cruise missiles readying to launch, and alleged Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs). Yemeni attacks against commercial shipping have waned over the past couple of days as most cargo bound for western ports has diverted from the region. Local traffic, or traffic bound for ports not affiliated with the US or western Europe, remains unaffected. However, more direct attacks on US Navy forces in the region have increased as Yemeni forces take advantage of any targets of opportunity that they deem to be valid for engagement.
Far East: Chinese airspace incursions continue over the Taiwan Strait as Taiwanese Defense Forces detect 8 reconnaissance balloons in Taiwanese airspace. This continues the slow, but steady increase in Chinese operations in the vicinity of Taiwan.
-HomeFront-
TX: Border crisis continues as before. Despite a lack of mainstream media coverage, the planned demonstrations in the vicinity of the southern US border have been ongoing for several days. The main effort has been via the “Take Our Border Back” convoy, which has made several stops at varying venues in the border region.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Despite the claims to the contrary, it is unlikely that Egypt will take any deliberate action (beyond posturing) unless the border itself is breached (which is unlikely to happen). Israel will likely take some time to prepare for operations in Rafah, which will also stretch thin forces already committed to Gaza City, Khan Younis, and the West Bank and northern border region with Lebanon.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//February 4-10, 2024//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: This week conflict escalated in the form of more substantial attacks, increased U.S. airstrikes in Yemen, and allegedly newly fielded weapons systems. Throughout the week, CENTCOM confirmed U.S. forces regularly engaged Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) that were allegedly being staged for an attack. No additional details were provided regarding this alleged newly-fielded weapons system. On Tuesday, Houthi forces continued their attacks on commercial shipping, targeting two cargo vessels. The M/V STAR NASIA was targeted by several cruise missiles which impacted near the ship causing minor damage. The M/V MORNING TIDE was also targeted with three cruise missiles unsuccessfully.
Middle East: The situation in Gaza, having deteriorated significantly over the past few weeks, has become increasingly more serious following the increase of tensions between Israel and Egypt. These tensions come as Israeli rhetoric increasingly indicates imminent operations in the Philadelphi corridor, on the Egyptian border. Thursday afternoon, Israeli sources announced the commencement of operations in Rafah, ordering the evacuation of the city in advance of the invasion. Similarly in the north, large military “exercises” near the Lebanese border have also exacerbated the situation, and possibly could be an indication of a widening conflict. In response, Egypt has deployed multiple battalions from the 4th Armored Division (of the 3rd Field Army) to the border region.
Europe: Farmer protests continue as before. Including now well over two dozen nations, protests and demonstrations remain highly variable in different locations. In Spain and France, demonstrations are quite kinetic, with police largely not effective in reducing the impact of protesters actions.
Switzerland: A 32-year-old Iranian asylum applicant armed with an ax held 15 people hostage on a train in Yverdon Wednesday night. After several hours of negotiation, the assailant was shot by police breaching the train. No hostages were injured during the ordeal.
-HomeFront-
CA: Early Wednesday morning a USMC CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter went missing in transit from Creech Air Force Base in Nevada to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar. SAR efforts were challenging due to weather conditions and the rugged terrain in the vicinity of the aircraft’s last reported position. Thursday, rescue teams located the crash site in Pine Valley, and recovered the remains of all 5 crew members. No further details have been provided on the cause or exact location of the crash.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In 2024, a “red line” issued by an Arab state doesn’t mean too much, but the Egyptian response to the situation in Rafah will largely be dependent on Israel’s actions. Egyptian forces already have deployed a few dozen tanks to the border region, but there are few indications that Egypt seeks to initiate conflict, despite previous claims. However, as the US has dispatched the CIA director to conduct yet another visit to Egypt, the arrival of the harbinger of nothing good is likely to increase tensions as intended.

A complicating factor is the characterization of the tensions between Israel and the Arab world. For instance, on the face, relations with all Arab states suffered due to the Israeli occupation of Gaza. However, behind the scenes (and away from the rhetoric), many Arab states have taken efforts to aid Israel. For instance, a joint project between Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE includes the creation of an overland trade route to allow shipping companies to avoid the Red Sea trade route, and allow for the delivery of cargo to Israel. Over the past few days (and very quietly), cargo vessels have been observed leaving Port Said in Egypt, and delivering cargo to Israel. This cargo could be aid for Palestine, or it could be supplies for Israel. Either way, it’s unlikely that the situation can be described simply, due to the vastly differing competing interests present at the multiple levels of this conflict. This alone highlights the highly complex nature of tensions in the region.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z February 12, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAEL BEGINS BOMBING CAMPAIGN IN RAFAH. SECDEF AUSTIN HOSPITALIZED AGAIN.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Netherlands: This morning, a Dutch court of appeals ruled against the Dutch government, halting the export of all F-35 parts to Israel. Per the court’s ruling, the court found that “It is undeniable that there is a clear risk the exported F-35 parts are used in serious violations of international humanitarian law”. The Dutch government has already filed an appeal of this ruling.
Middle East: Israel begins large-scale bombing operations in Rafah. Combat actions in the north have also increased. Israeli bombing of targets in Lebanese border regions has intensified following weeks of slowly increasing attacks into Lebanon. Hezbollah continues to conduct rocket attacks deep into Israel, as week as regular skirmishes and engagements of Israeli positions and observation posts along the border. In Gaza, the overall situation for the civilian populace is deteriorating severely.
Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting continues as before. Last night a commercial vessel was reportedly targeted with two cruise missiles in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. No further information on the success of this attack at this time.
United Kingdom: Following the withdrawal of the HMS DIAMOND from the OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN mission, maintenance issues continue to plague the Royal Navy as the HMS PRINCE OF WALES (R09) fails to participate in NATO exercises off the coast of Norway. The PRINCE OF WALES herself is a backup, intended to replace the HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH (R08) after she suffered propeller shaft problems and therefore was unable to participate in naval exercises. AC: At this point 100% of the Royal Navy aircraft carrier fleet is unable to deploy due to maintenance issues. These two aircraft carriers also represent two-thirds of all aircraft carriers in Europe, with France’s CHARLES DE GAULLE being the only other true aircraft carrier operational throughout the continent.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – SECDEF Lloyd Austin has transferred command to his Deputy, Kathleen Hicks following another emergency hospitalization, allegedly due to a “bladder issue”. Austin remains in a critical care unit at Walter Reed.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though seemingly unimportant, the Dutch ruling to ban the export of F-35 parts is the very first tentative sanction against Israel, from a European nation. The circumstances of this ruling (i.e. the undeniable civilian casualties) have resulted in one of the first official actions to admit what is going on in Gaza, that is not affiliated with any Palestinian movement or political stance. Previous efforts to counter Israel (such as the actions of the International Court of Justice, as per the lawsuit brought by South Africa) have largely been ignored by the western world, as these efforts have clearly originated from political regimes supportive of Palestine (and therefore not the most objective pursuit of justice).
As a reminder, over 1 million displaced residents of Gaza City and Khan Younis have been living in large refugee camps near the Egyptian border following Israeli mandates and evacuations ordering locals to displace to “safe zones” in Rafah. Many leaflets dropped by Israeli forces during the war have explicitly and directly ordered locals to flee to areas south of the Wadi Gaza.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z February 13, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FOREIGN AID SPENDING BILL PASSES U.S. SENATE. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Israel continues preparations for operations in Rafah as leaflet drops alongside bombing operations increase in the region. However, due to the location of this border city, there are very few locations for citizens (many of which are already refugees from Gaza City) to evacuate to, raising questions of what comes next.
Red Sea/HOA: The vessel attacked yesterday by Houthi forces has been identified as the M/V STAR IRIS, a Greek-flagged bulk cargo carrier. AC: Details of this attack have been few and far between, compared to previous reports, but CENTCOM did confirm that the two cruise missiles targeting the vessel did result in minor damage, but the vessel is under her own power and continuing her voyage.
Europe: Food shortages continue to cause issues for citizens throughout the continent as widespread protests continue. As before, these shortages are largely the result of a combination of truck drivers protesting by not delivering food to certain grocery store chains, as well as the physical blocking of trade routes and border checkpoints.
-HomeFront-
USA: The impending Israeli invasion of Rafah has reignited protests and demonstrations in the usual cities; mostly Seattle, New York, Washington D.C. etc.
Washington D.C. – In a late-night session, the Senate passed the hotly-debated $95 billion spending bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support after provisions for funding to counter illegal immigration at the southern US border were removed. The bill now heads to the House for a vote. AC: If passed, this bill nearly doubles the entirety of US tax dollars sent to Ukraine. American taxpayers have sent approximately $113 billion in purely cash payments to Ukraine so far during this war, a figure which does not include hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of military hardware.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though very clearly the demonstrations in Europe are intended to reduce the impact of governance on food production, perhaps contradictorily, food shortages are beginning to become a problem for many throughout more population-dense locations in Europe.
It is important to note that demonstrators are not directly targeting all trade routes, but rather choosing to demonstrate at distribution centers and grocery stores that have become involved in the politics of the climate agenda. This includes preventing the delivery of certain products from certain nations, which negatively impact local agricultural production. For instance, farmers in Spain have been observed destroying truckloads of tomatoes from Morocco as these shipments have been directly related to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which has promoted cheap imports and increased taxes on local production and thus the main reason for the continent-wide protests.
However, the second and third order effects of these demonstrations, in a world where the globalism of trade is the standard, are likely impacting logistics in unintended ways. As demonstrated during the COVID era, food shortages are impossible to predict due to the effects of relying on extremely complex global markets. Virtually zero food in Europe is produced locally to where it is sold. For instance, a prepackaged salad can contain lettuce from Spain, cheese from the Netherlands, tomatoes from Italy, olives from Greece, and so on. This results in complicated problems when a single border checkpoint is impacted, or when a single freight truck is delayed.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z February 14, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IRANIAN PIPELINE EXPLODES. ISRAEL CONTINUES ACTIONS ON MULTIPLE FRONTS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Attacks on various U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria have increased over the past few weeks, following heightened tensions in the region. Over the past few days, POL facilities in Syria (such as the al-Omar oil field), along with adjacent U.S. military bases have been sporadically targeted with rockets. These attacks have ebbed and flowed in response to events in Israel, or in response to U.S. targeting in Yemen.
In Iran, a major natural gas pipeline exploded in Borujen last night. AC: No details have been provided regarding the cause of the explosion, but considering the context of the multiple wars in the region, this was almost certainly an attack and/or sabotage conducted by Israel or the United States, both of which have a long history of these types of actions within Iran. Additionally, some social media accounts in Iran are claiming that a second explosion has occurred at a pipeline in Khorramabad, but this cannot be independently verified with any confidence at this time.
In Israel, the bombing campaign against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon continues, along with sporadic strikes in the vicinity of Rafah. In the south, the Palestinian Red Crescent has reported that they have not received any supplies due to roads being blocked by ongoing protests by Israeli civilians demonstrating against sending humanitarian aid to Gaza.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – DHS Secretary Mayorkas has been impeached by the House for issues related to the border crisis. AC: This impeachment will now head to the Senate where it likely will not pass.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The situation on the ground with regards to humanitarian aid in Gaza is very fluid. Egyptian authorities report trucks have made it through from their side, but it’s not clear as to how many trucks are actually making it to aid distribution centers. This has been a common struggle to determine throughout this conflict so far, as the demand for the truth of the situation on the ground is not able to outweigh the information operations that have become exceptionally overwhelming.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z February 15, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: HOUSE INTEL COMMITTEE CLAIMS SERIOUS SECURITY THREAT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Growing international opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza has begun to become more public over the past few days. French President Macron urged PM Netanyahu in a phone call to end the war in Gaza, citing the overwhelming civilian casualties caused by the conflict. This follows increased personality tensions that have strained the relationship between the White House and PM Netanyahu over the past few weeks.
-HomeFront-
MO: Yesterday a shooting at the Superbowl parade in Kansas City left 1 dead and 21 wounded. AC: Though details are minimal, initial reporting suggests this incident may have been a gang-related shooting between multiple suspects, with the large casualty count being related to the shooting taking place within the parade crowd itself. However, as the suspects (or rather, the three black males that were arrested at the scene) have not yet been officially identified, many details remain unconfirmed.
Washington D.C. – Yesterday the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee released a statement indicating that all members of Congress had been briefed on a serious national security threat, and that the President has been urged to declassify documentation regarding this unknown threat.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Unofficially, the story has been leaked to the press as being related to Russia’s ambitions to obtain undisclosed space-based strategic weapons. All details beyond this (and probably including this) are extremely unconfirmed. Currently, almost all diplomacy seems to be conducted via leaks; we rarely see a press statement from any government entity confirming anything, as leaks to the press offer the executive branch the chance of plausible deniability. All policy decisions by the Biden regime are usually leaked to the press first, to test the waters with the general public. As such, since there are no official details to work with, grand dissertations are being written by various pundits in response to what is, as of yet, a rumor.
Regarding the declassification of documents, the Office of the President is not the only entity that can declassify sensitive information. The Original Classification Authority (i.e. the organization that classified the information in the first place) can also declassify intelligence reporting. There are also other varying means of classifying intelligence reports to lower levels, by omitting sources and methods. This is quite easy, and routinely done in all joint or coalition environments. However, there is a reason as to why the emergency declassification of intelligence reports is rarely done (even though there are many procedures for it): If the threat is real, military force is used to defend against it, full stop.
The mere effort of declassifying something is a strong indicator that a citizenry would NOT approve of preemptive strikes, and would NOT see Russia’s actions as a direct threat…and therefore need to be convinced of the necessity of military action. This alone is a strong indicator that this alleged threat is not a real characterization of an imminent threat. Also considering that the United States military freely allows multiple airspace violations over US soil, with zero repercussions (not even sanctions or the slightest diplomatic complaint), it’s overwhelmingly likely that this “threat” is not direct or imminent in any way, but rather a strategic threat that is more abstract.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1600Z February 16, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE. NO NEW INFO ON RUSSIAN SPACE THREAT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: American strikes in Yemen continue, allegedly in self-defense against varying targets in Yemen. Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs), Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs), and various Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAVs) have begun to be targeted daily by U.S. forces in the region. Over a dozen various strikes have been reported over the past 24 hours. Threats to shipping continue as Houthi forces target multiple cargo vessels. The M/V LYCAVITOS was attacked with a cruise missile yesterday in the Gulf of Aden, and this morning an as-yet-unidentified vessel also reported being attacked by a cruise missile. AC: As this conflict has settled in for the long haul, the routine nature of attacks results in details being lost. Now, most reporting essentially can be summarized as “ship attacked, minor damage”. No details are ever provided following up with the status of vessels struck with cruise missiles, and no confirmation of the severity of damage is ever disclosed. This desensitization contributes to many people forgetting that one of the largest trade routes in the world is largely closed to western nations aligning with the U.S. or Israel, and that most western trade continues to be re-routed around the continent of Africa.
Russia: This morning, representatives from the Yamalo-Nenets prison district announced the death of Alexei Navalny. Navalny was serving a 19 year sentence in the IK-3 penal colony on charges of extremism. AC: Details of the circumstances of his death are predictably suspicious, with prison officials indicating that he collapsed and died. As Navalny was one of Putin’s most high-profile critics, and having survived multiple assassination attempts already, his death is not unexpected.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – No new information regarding the “serious national security threat” claimed by Congress. Unofficially, the story has changed several times. Currently, officials claim that the threat is related to Russia’s ambitions to target American satellites in orbit, and is not related to any active capability or threat. However, rumors originating from Congress maintain that the threat is related to nuclear weapons, or something more serious than counter-satellite capabilities. AC: Clearly there are too many deliberate and open lies floating around to determine what the situation really is. This again leads to increased scrutiny as it becomes clear that the threat likely is not really a threat, but rather strategic defense technologies that have been a factor for a long time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, the United States has not declared war against Yemen, or the Houthi forces controlling most of the country. The U.S. State Department has labeled the Houthi-controlled government as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group…but not a Foreign Terrorist Organization (the most severe categorization). This means the U.S. has slowly begun conducting routine combat operations in a nation that the United States is not at war with, but most importantly, the justification for these “self defense strikes” is diplomatically dubious. For instance, OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is not on the list of approved combat operations that will rate a Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal for the service members involved in the conflict; this is a de facto admission that this operation is not a part of the few remaining facets of the GWOT, which in turn is a strong indicator of the unique diplomatic situation (and legitimacy concerns) that have become more of a problem now that this conflict that has slowly become an enduring issue.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1600Z February 17, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN THE RED SEA. NAVALNY DEATH INCREASES INTL TENSIONS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: Much consternation abounds concerning the death of Putin critic Alexei Navalny. Pro-Russian sources are quick to point out that Navalny was prosecuted for orchestrating dissent in Russia at the behest of the West (that would be carried out via Navalny’s NGO, which undeniably has strong ties to MI6). Conversely, Western sources cite the obvious fact that, following the assassination of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in August of last year, Putin critics seem to be meeting very untimely ends as of late. AC: Though the impacts of Navalny’s death will not really impact the citizens of the United States or Europe, the rhetoric from mainstream sources, clearly planned and orchestrated since Navalny was imprisoned, has been overwhelming. Following the fallout that the impact Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin has had, it is certain that Navalny’s death will be as his life was: manipulated by the west for cheap political gain. Putin meanwhile, will likely continue consolidating power as he sees fit in order to continue streamlining Russia’s economic, military, and social standing with Asia, the Middle East, and the rest of the world at large.
Red Sea/HOA: This morning, Houthi forces conducted a cruise missile attack against the M/V POLLUX a Panamanian-flagged tanker. CENTCOM reports 3-4 cruise missiles were used to target the vessel.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Continuing the trend, CENTCOM has used increasingly vague language to describe Houthi attacks. Unlike in previous reports, CENTCOM did not state whether or not the POLLUX had been struck, or if the missiles missed their target. CENTCOM only reported that there were no injuries…which is an evasive, non-committal statement that conveniently does not deny that the vessel was hit since most successful strikes do not result in the crew being injured anyway. Meanwhile, cross-referencing CENTCOM’s press releases with UKMTO indicates that only one vessel was targeted in the region within the time period of the CENTCOM report, a vessel that did report being attacked by a missile resulting in “an explosion in close proximity”. Though it is not clear as to if this is indeed the same vessel, this does highlight the potentially diverting and increasingly vague reporting in the region.
Also of note, CENTCOM’s press releases have quietly dropped all references to successful interceptions of Houthi missiles over the past few days. No mention has been made of any successful interceptions for about a week, whereas the announcement of “self-defense strikes” has been a constant. Though this is purely speculative, this could signal a shift in tactics as U.S. Naval forces are unable to provide complete missile defense for themselves or commercial shipping; shifting from defense to offense could be a perceived way to counter Houthi threats. A static target is a lot easier to hit than a cruise missile, so the U.S. may be prioritizing the strike of missiles before they are launched, and relying on Aegis missile defense as the backup plan. The data, however, speaks for itself. Houthi forces regularly successfully target commercial shipping nearly daily.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//