Admin Note: As announced on various social media platforms, the GhostNet stopgap communications plan that we have developed was activated during this crisis, and functioned as designed. Though far from perfect (and a work-in-progress), this system was intended to ease the burden of transitioning to citizen-run, HF-radio-based news sources if and when normal cell networks (or internet sources) are down. Taking advantage of real-world events to conduct readiness tests can be a low-risk way to test one’s own response, and determine deficiencies. For those interested in learning more about our GhostNet project, details can be found on our YouTube channel, to include various tutorials for getting set up for free.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z February 23, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: NO NEW INFO ON YESTERDAYS CELL OUTAGE. FARMER PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Farmer protests continue as before, expanding in both the severity of disruptions caused and the number of nations affected. So far, major protests are underway in 14 European nations, with smaller, localized demonstrations of solidarity being reported in almost every nation in Europe. Major actions appear to largely be concentrated in France, the Netherlands, Spain, Ireland, and Poland.
Red Sea/HOA: Yesterday, the M/V ISLANDER was attacked with two Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBMs), causing damage and injuring one crew member. The vessel is continuing its voyage. No further details have been released by CENTCOM regarding this attack.
-Homefront-
USA: Information regarding yesterday’s mass cellular outage remains scarce. There have been few public statements from the various entities involved, with unconfirmed rumor mostly driving the public discourse surrounding the outage. Initial theories falsely attributed causation to the solar activity that appeared to coincide with the initial outage; the solar activity had nothing to do with the outage, and did not impact cellular networks in the United States.
Officially, AT&T (the root cause of the outage) has simply stated that the outage was the result of technical error, and not a cyberattack. No further details have been provided.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: More details regarding the cause of yesterday’s cell outage are not likely to be made public. As AT&T has confirmed that the outage was a deliberate action, the list of potential theories regarding the incident more or less boils down to intent. As AT&T has been extremely quiet regarding the cause of the outage, a wide range of possibilities exists; A careless/incompetent technician could have been the cause, or it could have been a deliberate cyberattack that authorities are trying to keep quiet. As a reminder, many substantial cyberattacks of recent memory were publicly disclosed as a “user error” at first, before quietly being confirmed as a cyberattack weeks later once the event is out of the press cycle.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

Currently seeing reports of an unidentified high-altitude balloon somewhere over the western United States. Currently battle-tracking the issue as best I can from my end, and trying to determine if this is a civilian object or a repeat of previous incidents. Will provide an update when I know more.

So far, no NOTAMs issued to indicate position. There are a few ham radio balloons in the western US, but hopefully the billion dollar NORAD funding would have ruled those out already. The vague and contradictory Pentagon wording that its origin is unknown, but it's also "not a threat" is a pretty good red flag that shenanigans may be afoot. Same with the source, which was just like last time we had the balloon issue: leaked to a mainstream media source instead of a formal press release. Still working to find out more information though, which is challenging considering we already have a LONG history of the DoD deliberately and openly lying about these incidents. More to follow later.

//The Wire//2300Z February 23, 2024//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: UNIDENTIFIED HIGH-ALTITUDE BALLOON SPOTTED OVER WESTERN USA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-Homefront-
USA: This afternoon, CBS News leaked a report indicating that the U.S. military was tracking an unidentified high-altitude balloon over the western United States. According to CBS, Pentagon officials stated that the origin and intentions of the balloon were unknown, but that the object was “not at threat”. AC: It is unclear as to how an unknown object can be confirmed to not be a threat.
Directly quoting the initial CBS report, “One official said the balloon was over Colorado earlier in the day and was expected to be over Georgia by Friday night. The official said the balloon appeared to be made of Mylar and had a small cube-shaped box, about two feet long on each side, hanging below it.”
Independent analysis conducted is as follows: No NOTAMs were issued to indicate the position of the craft. A total of three ham radio balloons were aloft over the western USA at the time of initial reports, but all three were transmitting their positions openly as required by the FAA. Independent analysis of raw weather radar returns yielded no reliable results, and weather modeling indicated an eastern track was most likely, with prevailing winds carrying the craft over Georgia within a few hours.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though the fog of war is challenging to work within at the moment, in the interest of expediency (and weighed against the potential to be alarmist) it would be prudent to assume that this event is somehow linked to the mass cyber events that occurred yesterday.
Though this is purely speculative and bases heavy analysis on very few details, if this balloon is Chinese in origin, previous balloon incidents strongly indicate that the balloon has been in U.S. airspace for hours, at least since the cyber events yesterday. Without question, if this is indeed a Chinese balloon that takes many days to transit the United States, this would mean that the federal regime knew about this balloon (which was likely already over U.S. soil), during the cyber events yesterday.
If the denoscription of the balloon provided to CBS is accurate, this device (while much smaller than previous balloons) is far too large to comprise of any legitimate civilian technology. The payload consisting of a two-foot cube shaped object is significantly larger than any normal civilian payload for research purposes. Additionally, as all civilian high-altitude balloons are required by the FAA to transmit identification data on pre-determined frequencies, the de facto admission that this has not been done strongly indicates a more nefarious use in line with previous spy balloon sightings. Granting even more weight to the potential nefariousness of this craft is that, in the CBS report, the balloon is reportedly traveling at an altitude of over 40,000 ft. At this altitude, any hobby or research devices will need a plethora of special permissions in order to deconflict airspace and not present hazards to aviation. Weather balloons routinely fly higher, but are much smaller and also openly transmit their position.
Though it is impossible to know for certain, and it is easy to over-assess the potential threats, the most dangerous potential COA would be for this to be the initial stages of more complex activity. Historically, airspace violations are quite serious events with dire diplomatic implications. However (if confirmed to be foreign), this is more likely a probing action (possibly coupled with cyber events) intended to both collect intelligence and test responses.

In any case, the chances of these multiple events occurring nearly simultaneously are very remote. Likewise, as distasteful as it may be to admit, the U.S. Department of Defense actively seeking to conceal homeland security threats from the general public is extremely likely in this exact scenario, as it has happened before. As such, careful examination of the facts (what few we have) will have to rely largely on analysis which in the heat of the moment is likely subject to much error. Consequently, more details will follow as the situation progresses.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1500Z February 24, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: NO NEW DETAILS ON BALLOON. CHINESE ILLEGAL ALIEN ENCOUNTERS REACH NEW RECORD IN CA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Over the past few days, CENTCOM has intensified “self-defense” targeting of Houthi sites in Yemen. As has become standard, almost zero information is released regarding these strikes, which have now become routine daily events.
-Homefront-
PA: A chemical incident at a pharmaceutical packing plant in Lehigh County resulted in over 50 workers suffering minor injuries. No word yet on what the chemical was, but most of the people affected reported headaches and respiratory problems. The cause of the incident has not been disclosed.
CA: Customs and Border Patrol statistics released last night indicate that the pace at which Chinese immigrants are encountered attempting to cross the border illegally has increased substantially over the past quarter. In one California district there were more Chinese immigrants illegally crossing the southern U.S. border than Mexicans. Newly released data indicates that since October of last year, 21,000 encounters with Chinese nationals were reported, whereas in the same sector only 18,700 Mexicans were encountered. AC: As the overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants no longer originate from Mexico (but rather other Central or South American nations), it is unclear as to how this affects the total numbers. As a reminder, recent DHS testimony before Congress has indicated that over 85% of all illegal encounters result in the illegal alien being released into the United States, rather than being deported.
Washington D.C. – No new information has been released by the Pentagon regarding the possibly hostile aircraft over American soil. Pentagon officials continue to claim that both the origin and the intent of the craft is unknown, yet somehow also assessed to be not a threat. AC: As defense officials seem content with leaking information to mainstream sources so as to maintain deniability, rather than calling press briefings to inform the American people, no mainstream media source has updated their articles on this incident at the time of this report. All MSM reporting is circular, originating from the original CBS report.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The timing of the announcement of the unidentified balloon is itself a classic deception tactic. Pentagon officials frequently refer to this as “taking out the trash”, in other words releasing a stack of unimportant press statements on a Friday afternoon when reporters are ready to go home for the weekend (and therefore are assumed to be more complacent than usual). Sneaking critically important reports into the “garbage” and hoping that no one notices has been a tactic utilized heavily by various federal agencies for decades. Releasing critical reports on a Friday afternoon also allows for politicians to have more leeway in providing statements, as the expectation of “traveling” or weekend life enables key figures to hide more effectively from the press.
Releasing this info on a Friday afternoon also decreases the potential citizens that could observe the craft, and pinpoint it’s location. As most people would be enjoying the start of their weekend, and with nightfall approaching, the timing of the report ensured that by the time any citizen was able to visually see the craft, it would be long out to sea and out of sight. As a reminder, the DoD never released any updated or high-resolution photos of the initial string of spy balloons, only low-res or ground-based photos were provided to taxpayers.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//February 18-24, 2024//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: This week marked significant escalations in the region following the most successful targeting of a commercial vessel by Houthi forces so far during the Red Sea Crisis. Sunday night, the M/V RUBYMAR was struck with multiple projectiles, forcing the crew to abandon ship. Originally the vessel was reported as being sunk, but several days after the strikes, imagery obtained by the BBC confirms that the vessel is still afloat, albeit barely. The imagery confirms that severe flooding has caused severe trim to stern, so much so that her deck is awash at the base of the accommodation superstructure. Additionally, her bulbous bow was almost completely above the waterline in the photos provided. The RUBYMAR was allegedly towed into port Djbouti where salvage operations continue.
In response to the success of this strike, the next day Houthi forces targeted several other commercial vessels, including one which was delivering humanitarian aid to Yemen. The M/V SEA CHAMPION was struck with at least one Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM), but was able to continue her voyage to the Yemeni port of Aden where she offloaded her cargo of grain. In the same engagement, the M/V NAVIS FORTUNA and the USS LABOON (DDG 58) were also targeted with missiles, the former successfully. An American MQ-9 Reaper drone was also shot down by Houthi forces during the escalation, which marks the second drone downed by Houthi forces since this conflict intensified in October, 2023.
Throughout the week CENTCOM forces have continued daily missile strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. Very few details of these now-regular strikes have been made public.
-HomeFront-
NY: The revelation of a recent rule change has indicated that potentially tens of thousands of illegal immigrants have been allowed to receive substantial cash payments in addition to the monthly benefits already provided. This follows the announcement of $53 million in prepaid cards being issued to illegal immigrants in NYC, which includes payments of up to $10,000 per illegal immigrant, without any accountability requirements or checking identity documents. AC: Quietly passed last year, the New York Governor’s office changed the eligibility requirements for it’s Safety Net Assistance (SNA) program to include illegal immigrants. Though accountability is virtually nonexistent, city officials estimate that approximately 10% of illegals living in NYC (around 17,000) are receiving benefits through this program.
TX: Border situation continues as before, despite little independent media coverage of the truth on the ground. Events in the vicinity of Eagle Pass have largely developed into politics, with Shelby Park mostly serving as a location for photo opportunities or press events due to the halting of illegal immigration in this very small area.
Last week, Texas announced a $131 million plan to build a Forward Operating Base (FOB) near the southern U.S. border. FOB EAGLE BASE CAMP will be completed in September, and will reportedly be a larger version of similar camps already in place throughout the region.
Washington D.C. - The Biden regime has announced the cancellation of an additional $1.2 billion of student debt for approximately 153,000 people. To date, various federal entities have already canceled (or technically, transferred to the American taxpayer) over $138 billion of student loan debt from approximately 3.9 million individuals.

USA: Thursday morning many cyber events were reported on a variety of platforms, utilities, and critical infrastructure. The main cyber impacts were to AT&T’s cellular network, with the majority of AT&T customers being without cell service for much of the day. In a separate incident, many pharmacies across the U.S. reported computer systems being offline, allegedly due to a cyberattack. Wells Fargo brokerage users also reported problems accessing their accounts Thursday morning. It is unclear as to if this was related to any of the other cyber events reported throughout the day. Occurring nearly simultaneously with the initial cellular outage, significant solar activity was observed throughout the day, but it is unclear as to how much this impacted telecom networks.
Friday afternoon, Pentagon officials (via CBS News) disclosed the interception of an unidentified high-altitude balloon flying at an altitude of 40,000ft over the western United States. The Pentagon released very little information regarding the object, but directly quoting the initial CBS report, “One official said the balloon was over Colorado earlier in the day and was expected to be over Georgia by Friday night. The official said the balloon appeared to be made of Mylar and had a small cube-shaped box, about two feet long on each side, hanging below it.”
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: This week has exemplified the harsh lesson that Murphy’s Law strikes at any time, but usually makes an appearance when least desired. Likewise, the desire to remain objective in the face of homeland threats being ignored by defense officials is exceptionally challenging, especially when every fiber of analytical being, combined with the wealth of American defense policy (and history itself) overwhelmingly indicating that airspace violations are usually a clear and present danger to a populace.
At minimum, these events (if viewed through a purely wholesome, coincidental, and innocent lens) are a fantastic lesson that whatever can go wrong, will go wrong. Even if all of the cyber events, cellular outages, systems failures, unidentified aircraft, and solar activity are all perfectly benign and unrelated to any sort of hostile act, the compounding of these events is a constant reminder to remain vigilant.
As very few details have been released regarding the high-altitude balloon, theories abound as to its purpose, none of which will likely be confirmed. Despite Pentagon statements, this balloon is not likely to be of civilian origin. The construction and size of the balloon’s payload, the lack of airspace deconfliction, the lack of required transponder data indicating the craft’s identity, the fact that no hobbyist group or commercial company has claimed the balloon, the flight level of over 40,000ft, and the ability to maintain that altitude without ascending or descending as it traversed the United States all strongly indicate that hobby use of this craft can be ruled out. However, though this does indicate both hostile intent and hostile action, this does not necessarily point to foreign use.
On the one hand, the presentation of this craft based on the information that has been made public clearly indicates that it may be a threat. On the other hand, this craft may also be American in origin; a secret reconnaissance platform that got caught by NORAD’s own defenses. The U.S. is certain to have been developing lighter-than-air reconnaissance craft, and extremely secret projects would not be disclosed to everyone that needed to know, including NORAD.

With this in mind, understanding defensive capabilities with regards to these types of incidents is important. Thousands of unidentified aircraft are detected by NORAD each month, almost all of which remain unidentified. The fact that this particular craft was disclosed in such a way as to keep it quasi-secret indicates that this craft was different. Having a mylar construction is an indicator that it was not civilian in nature; along with the de facto admission by officials that the balloon was remaining at the same altitude as it traversed the United States. The tacit implication that the balloon was not transmitting location data is another strong indicator of nefarious intent. As such, the presentation of both a hostile act (being airborne without permission), AND hostile intent (no communications or response to IFF interrogation) confirms that this aircraft was indeed a clear and present danger to the American public, despite what defense officials have stated.
However, until Pentagon officials begin to tell the truth at press briefings, the American public would be prudent to treat these events more cautiously. Though it is always desirable to have a balanced view of world events, and avoid alarmist perspectives, in the fog of war it is sometimes acceptable to adopt a more cautiously defensive posture, and prepare for the more worst-case scenarios. In a dynamic situation, over-reacting to an unknown variable is preferable until more information can be obtained which more accurately outlines the threat (and hopefully lets everyone rest easy).
Red-teaming the balloon event both for posterity, and for future preparedness, if the high-altitude object was hostile or foreign in nature, this could represent a tactic utilized by national adversaries in time of war. Though it is generally unwise to base so much theory on so little information, we must consider all possibilities that are likely based on what little information has been released.
Understanding and discussing the potential is necessary, no matter how serious the implications may be. Though this is a purely speculative theory based on a hunch, the still-unidentified balloon could have been intended to take advantage of the cellular outage on Wednesday. The timing would have been perfect if the intent was to disable a large number of cellular comms, and surveil whatever signals remained. The balloon itself almost certainly didn’t cause the initial outage, but conducting reconnaissance in the wake of a cyberattack would have provided a wealth of intelligence on the backup procedures and frequencies used by military or governmental agencies during an event such as a national cyberattack. Having a birds-eye view to collect radio signals during communications blackout would be extremely valuable for military planning. Likewise, citizens should also be prepared for the contingency that foreign reconnaissance platforms may be launched from within the United States. Launching spy balloons from the hundreds of miles of terrain already owned by Chinese real estate syndicates would be a logical escalation of Chinese reconnaissance activity within the Homeland.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1830Z February 26, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: NORWEGIAN CRUISE SHIP QUARANTINED DUE TO CHOLERA OUTBREAK.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Mauritius: A Norwegian cruise ship has been quarantined in the Port of Mauritius following a cholera outbreak onboard the vessel. The M/V NORWEGIAN DAWN has been quarantined in port until further notice. Though the origin of the outbreak is unknown at this time, several of the passengers reporting illness traveled to South Africa earlier this month.
Red Sea/HOA: Several telecom providers have begun to report issues regarding undersea communications cables in the Red Sea. As of this report, only single-source reporting is available, which suggests that a total of four cables have been impacted over the past few months. AC: As cable disruptions are extremely common due to natural seismic events on the seafloor, the timing of such outages is critical. So far, the Jerusalem Post is the only media outlet reporting on this issue, which (aside from being a highly questionable source in its own right), did not indicate whether or not this is a new issue, or a culmination of incidents since the start of the Red Sea Crisis.
Houthi forces have made direct threats to sever these communications cables, however it is not clear as to if they are actually capable of tampering with or targeting undersea cables in the Red Sea. Additionally, in a time when covert operations and false-flag events have become extremely common, judgement is probably best reserved for when more information becomes public. On the other hand, due to the nature of the incident, independent investigation is not likely.
-Homefront-
Washington D.C. – Yesterday a uniformed active duty Air Force service member self-immolated outside the Israeli embassy in a self-described act of protest in support of Palestine. The service member, later identified as Aaron Bushnell, later died at a local hospital. No information regarding his rank or unit has been confirmed by defense officials yet.
In the western United States, no new information has been released regarding the recent unidentified high-altitude balloon incident. Pentagon officials continue to assess that the balloon was “likely” a civilian craft, but zero evidence has been provided to back up these claims, whereas the culmination of information as released so far indicates the contrary. So far, no one has come forward to claim the balloon or its payload.
On the economic front, over the past few weeks financial observers have noticed strategic financial moves among many elites. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dillon dumped $150 million in JPM stock last week, his largest sell-off of his own company’s stock to date. Jeff Bezos has sold $8.5 billion of his Amazon portfolio, and Mark Zuckerberg has sold $428 million of his Meta holdings. In 2023 Q4, Bill Gates sold off 65% of his entire financial portfolio, worth approximately $80 billion. The Walton family also sold $4.5 billion of their Walmart holdings after the closing bell on Friday.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: No financial expertise is needed to assess the strategic impacts of billionaires dumping significant investments all within a few weeks of each other. On the other hand, the field of economics is more complicated than a single soundbite; For instance, Bill Gate’s asset sell-off could be largely restructuring and consolidation, not necessarily a “dump”. However, these financial moves are an indicator of something; figuring out the exact details of which will largely be speculative.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1830Z February 27, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CANADA CONTINUES ATTACKS ON SPEECH. US ARMY REPORTEDLY REDUCES 24,000 JOBS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Canada: Several bills have been introduced in Parliament with the goal of suppressing and criminalizing speech. Bill C-63, as introduced for the First Reading yesterday, seeks to modify the Criminal Code to create a new hate crime offense that specifically introduces life sentences for some speech crimes. This follows the introduction of Bill C-372 (which was tabled earlier this month) which intends to criminalize the “promotion” of fossil fuels. This bill (as it stands) was allegedly intended to restrict corporate advertising, however most of the restrictions apply to everyday citizens who could face jail time for simply stating that fossil fuels are cheaper or more reliable than allegedly “renewable” energy sources.
Red Sea/HOA: The status of the M/V RUBYMAR remains unclear and contradictory. Last night, Houthi forces posted videos indicating that they were in possession of the partially-sunken vessel, or at the very minimum are conducting security patrols in the area. Houthi forces have claimed that they will allow the towing of the stricken vessel only in exchange for humanitarian aid being sent to Gaza. AC: This directly contradicts claims by western authorities/media that the vessel was being towed into port Djbouti. In the videos provided by Houthi forces, the condition of the vessel has deteriorated since the photos released by the BBC a few days ago. Satellite imagery confirms that the RUBYMAR is at anchor in approximately 165 feet of water, at grid coordinate: 38PLV1642909551. Currently, the vessel is abandoned and continues to take on water.
-Homefront-
Washington D.C. – This morning, Defense officials have leaked plans to restructure the U.S. Army to reduce personnel levels in response to recruiting shortfalls. According to the reports leaked to the media, allegedly 24,000 Army positions will be reduced, most of which are already vacant due to personnel shortages. AC: Continuing the frustrating trend of Pentagon officials conveying information via informal leaks (so as to maintain deniability), no official statement has been released regarding this reduction in force. Instead, all mainstream media reporting cites the same undisclosed document that allegedly contains readiness data. Nevertheless, these numbers are probably more indicative of the overall recruiting crisis that has affected the US military for years.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the loss of free speech in Canada has reached disturbing levels by American standards, most American states are not far behind with regards to the quiet rule-changing of existing criminal code that makes millions of citizens felons overnight. However, the specific tactics and legalisms used to subjugate Canadian citizens can also serve as a litmus test for impending legal trickery within the USA. For instance, the methods used to financially target participants of the Canadian Trucker protests have been considered by American companies seeking to target firearms retailers. Moving into the election season more financial targeting of not just high-profile political opponents, but lower level dissidents is likely, as evidenced by the continual arrests, prosecutions, and ongoing surveillance of J6 participants. This is especially important to consider as in the United States, much of the targeting of taxpayers may originate from the desires of government/elites, but in practicality is enacted by private companies acting on the behalf and/or wishes of the federal regime. This already is a matter of routine among platforms like Facebook/Meta when it comes to speech. However, much more serious targeting can (and is likely to) occur as the social/political/economic situation in the US deteriorates closer to the election.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z February 28, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TENSIONS MOUNT IN TRANSNISTRIA. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Yesterday the breakaway-Republic of Transnistria voted to formally request to become a protectorate of Russia. This region, a thin strip of diplomatically ambiguous land situated in the eastern part of Moldova along the Ukrainian border, has been host to sentiments similar to those of the now-occupied districts of the Donetsk in the complicatedly-described eastern region of Ukraine. Roughly 250,000 self-described ethnic Russians reside in this ambiguous breakaway region. This vote is largely the result of diplomatic and economic tensions with Moldova, which is one of Transnistria’s only trade partners.
Throughout the remainder of the continent, farmer protests continue. Demonstrations at the headquarters of the European Union in Brussels have become increasingly kinetic following the routine destruction of police barriers by demonstrators. Yesterday, an estimated 100,000 people protested against the EU’s climate agenda in Warsaw, and tens of thousands protested against the same in Madrid. Protests have expanded significantly over the past few weeks and now include almost every major western city between Wales and Greece.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Moldova’s actions so far in response to the events in Transnistria have not been clear. Limited reporting on social media has suggested military movements within Moldova, but just as with all open-source media currently, flashy videos of tanks-on-the-move are usually very common deception practices intended to drive engagement on social media. As such, while it is important to recognize the significance of the tensions in the region, it is challenging to determine what actions are being taken on the ground until more information sources become available. More generally, Russia has had a limited military presence within Transnistria for a few years, likely serving as Russia’s eyes and ears in the region.
As Sweden’s NATO membership is imminent, Russia could seek to muddy the waters by raising concerns of Transnistrian annexation. Though it is militarily unlikely, stoking the threats of Transnistria becoming another Donetsk would be a valuable propaganda tool useful to all sides.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z February 29, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WILDFIRE GROWS IN TEXAS. M/V RUBYMAR ADRIFT IN THE RED SEA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: The M/V RUBYMAR continues to sink as Houthi forces maintain some level of security or territorial influence around the stricken vessel. Recent open-source satellite imagery indicates that the vessel has been drifting for several days, despite the crew reporting to have dropped the starboard anchor prior to abandoning ship.
-Homefront-
Texas: An extremely large wildfire has impacted residents in the panhandle following weather conditions that have drastically increased fire activity. Overnight, the Smokehouse Creek Fire grew to over 1 million acres in size, officially becoming the largest recorded wildfire in Texas history. As of this morning, the fire is only 3% contained.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: If the RUBYMAR is dragging her anchor, it is possible that this is the cause of the recently reported damage to undersea communications cables in the region. As the exact location of submarine cables is a closely guarded secret due to security reasons, it’s not possible to confirm this with open-source methods yet. The M/V RUBYMAR is also not emitting public AIS tracking data, so verifying her position requires manual verification via satellite imagery. This morning’s Sentinel 2a pass indicated that she has drifted approximately 50 NM from her last imagery-confirmed position on Feb 24. However, substantial cloud coverage over the target area this morning greatly inhibits confirmation of her exact position.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z March 1, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WILDFIRES CONTINUE IN TEXAS. JAPAN BEGINS TO IMPROVE DEFENSES ON REMOTE OUTLYING ISLANDS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Poland: This morning a hit-and-run incident injured 17 people as a vehicle rammed into a crowd in the port city of Szczecin. The driver was later apprehended. As of this report it is not immediately clear if this was a deliberate action.
Far East: Japanese defense strategists have outlined preparations to increase bomb shelter defenses for residents living on some of Japan’s more remote outlying islands. This follows many months of preparations among U.S. forces throughout the region, who have steadily improved existing bases throughout the region.
-Homefront-
Maine: United Airlines flight 883 (from London to Newark) conducted an emergency landing in Bangor due to an unruly passenger causing serious disruptions. No further details on this incident at this time.
Texas: Multiple wildfires continue to present hazards following the increase in favorable fire weather conditions over the past few days. The Smokehouse Creek Fire, the largest in Texas history (and the second largest in U.S. history) is now 15% contained. Precipitation yesterday greatly aided containment efforts, and have allowed crews to focus efforts on the northern edge of the fire. The Windy Deuce Fire in Moore County is still active, and is 50% contained at a size of roughly 142,000 acres.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though the announcement of Japanese civil defense improvements may stoke concerns, this is likely not an indicator of imminent actions but rather a clear continuation of trends preparing for an eventual conflict within Asia. Most nations throughout the region have been preparing for an eventual conflict with China for years. As attacks on Japan (such as the island of Okinawa), and any other U.S. bases in the region are all but certain in the event of conflict, the creation and improvement of U.S. bases in the south Pacific is likely to increase substantially in the future.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z March 2, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS IN ASIA WORSEN FOLLOWING FISHING DISPUTE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Houthi forces report that the M/V RUBYMAR has finished sinking in the southern Red Sea. Though no independent verification of this can be made at this time, UKMTO has confirmed that her last reported position as of this morning is at grid: 38PKV7912777100.
Far East: Tensions between the Philippines and China escalate following increasingly hostile fishing disputes in the region. Following reports of Chinese and Vietnamese vessels dumping cyanide into the waters surrounding the Scarborough Shoal (in a likely attempt to assert dominance and/or degrade/destroy the reef itself), diplomatic relations with Manila have deteriorated as the Philippines determines what their response to this latest tit-for-tat conflict will be.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Fishing disputes in the South China Sea have been ongoing for many years, and are usually a barometer for gauging the diplomatic status between the nations that all claim fishing rights to the same body of water. Much larger power-projection moves have been observed in the past, so this latest spat is likely not as serious as media outlets would indicate. However, keeping a finger on the pulse of the region is important, as increasingly hostile actions from China (or any or the other nations involved), could signal a deterioration of relations that are already sour.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire Weekly Rollup//February 25 – March 2, 2024//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Following the Houthi cruise missile strike on the M/V RUBYMAR in the Red Sea two weeks ago, this nondenoscript vessel was discovered to be adrift (and likely dragging her anchor) following her crew abandoning ship after the strike.
Far East: Japan has announced the revitalization of homeland defense policies amid the steady increase in tensions throughout Asia. Japanese defense officials are planning to examine the need and implementation requirements for the creation of bunkers and bomb shelters for residents living on some of Japan’s more remote outlying islands.
Eastern Europe: On Tuesday, the breakaway Republic of Transnistria voted to request to become a protectorate of Russia. This largely unknown semi-autonomous region situated in eastern Moldova along the Ukrainian border has suffered the impacts of poor relations with Moldova, leading to this recent vote. AC: It is unclear as to what Russia’s response will be. However, as the information war is in full effect, the implication that Transnistria could become another Donetsk is palpable as roughly 250,000 self-described Russians inhabit this region. However, though the Transnistrian issue is unlikely to become an additional front in the Ukrainian war, both Russia and the West could seek to capitalize on these fears in order to stoke even more defense funding and pressure NATO members even further. Russia could also be motivated to use this as a way to turn the screws to the west as Sweden’s accession to NATO is all but certain.
Canada: Several bills have been introduced in Parliament with the goal of suppressing and criminalizing speech and establishing in law the concept of pre-crime. Bill C-63, as introduced for the First Reading this week, seeks to modify the Criminal Code to create a new hate crime offense that specifically introduces life sentences for some speech crimes. This bill also allows for the preemptive house-arrest of anyone who authorities suspect may commit a hate speech crime in the future. This follows the introduction of Bill C-372 (which was tabled earlier this month) which intends to criminalize the “promotion” of fossil fuels. This bill (as it stands) was allegedly intended to restrict corporate advertising, however most of the restrictions apply to everyday citizens who could face jail time for simply stating that fossil fuels are cheaper or more reliable than allegedly “renewable” energy sources.
-HomeFront-
TX: Severe wildfires impacted substantial parts of the panhandle this week following a rapid increase in favorable fire weather conditions. The Smokehouse Creek Fire suddenly became the largest fire in Texas history (and the second largest in U.S. history), reaching a size of over 1 million acres this week. Friday morning, precipitation greatly aided firefighting efforts, but several large wildfires continue to impact much of northern Texas.
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Analyst Comments: Though the M/V RUBYMAR seems unworthy of such focused attention, shortly after this incident began, telecom providers in the region reported issues with their undersea cables, possibly indicating that up to four cables had been severed. As Houthi forces have repeatedly threatened to target submarine cables, the natural assumption was that Houthi forces may have been involved. However, as the RUBYMAR is confirmed to have been dragging her anchor for two weeks, it is possible that this is the cause of these reported outages. As a reminder, the overwhelming majority of cable-cutting incidents involve either vessels dragging anchor, or undersea seismic events. Consequently, though no independent verification can be made at this time, it is worth considering that the RUBYMAR’s anchor may have been the reason for the recent telecoms issues. Likewise, as the vessel has possibly finished sinking (in comparatively shallow water, in one of the most heavily trafficked waterways on Earth), the second and third order effects should be considered of subsequent successful Houthi strikes.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1930Z March 4, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE. NATO EXERCISE BEGINS IN FINLAND. TENSIONS MOUNT IN NAGORNO KARABAGH.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: NATO’s standard arctic training exercise has begun, taking place this year for the first time in Finland. Normally held in Norway every other year, OPN COLD RESPONSE has been renamed to be OPN NORDIC RESPONSE as of Finland joining NATO last year. This exercise will continue until March 14th.
Nagorno-Karabagh – Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have escalated over the past few weeks following limited skirmishes in the region. In the Azeri controlled areas, significant construction efforts are underway, with the previous provincial capital building being demolished over the weekend. Limited skirmishes carried out by small patrols have been reported in the northern Azeri-occupied areas over the past few days, causing local concerns that the conflict may flare up again. AC: So far, there are no indications of large military movements from either side, but diplomatic relations are deteriorating which in turn will likely cause more tensions in the near future.
Red Sea/HOA: This morning another cargo ship was struck with at least one cruise missile in the Gulf of Aden. Houthi forces claim that the vessel belongs to the Israeli shipping company ZIM, but as the vessel was transiting without emitting transponder data, independent verification will take some time.
-HomeFront-
USA: Congress is considering the closure of the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve (NGSR). Nestled within the latest thousand-page spending bill, this closure is planned to take place after the U.S. draws down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by one million barrels this year. The NGSR was established in 2014 in response to the effects of Hurricane Sandy which caused widespread fuel disruptions throughout the northeastern United States. In the years since, this reserve has held approximately one million barrels of refined gasoline.
PA: A train derailment incident occurred along the Lehigh River in Lehigh County on Saturday morning. Three trains were involved in the derailment after an eastbound train collided with another train stopped on the track. The resulting debris from the first collision resulted in the derailment of a third westbound train on the adjacent track. An unknown quantity of diesel fuel was spilled into the river, but no other HAZMAT was reported. The cause of the incident is under investigation.
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Analyst Comments: Regarding the potential closure of the NGSR, the reduction of strategic POL reserves is not generally recommended for a nation which has increasingly vulnerable energy needs. However, when passed, this would align with the long-standing trend of Congressional bills increasing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure. The daily impact this would have to average citizens is minimal, but the reduction of critical energy reserves is a consideration in the event that normal fuel delivery services are impacted in some way throughout the region.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1830Z March 5, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GLOBAL SERVICE AND PLATFORM OUTAGES REPORTED THIS MORNING.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
USA: Yesterday the FAA released an update regarding the six-week audit of Boeing’s manufacturing processes. So far, the audit has revealed “non-compliance issues in Boeing’s manufacturing process control, parts handling and storage, and product control”.
This morning, several cascading outages resulted in many internet services being offline. The outage, while lasting only about an hour, affected an extremely wide range of platforms and services. Facebook was the first ecosystem affected by the outage, along with their subsidiaries Instagram and Whatsapp. However, problems were reported among many other platforms and services almost immediately. So far, Google, Youtube, TikTok, Twitter/X, Snapchat, Zoom, Discord, Gmail, Cloudflare, and AWS all reported issues or total outages. Some telecom providers (such as T-Mobile, Verizon, Spectrum, FirstNet) also reported issues all at roughly the same time. No word yet on the cause of the outage.
MI: Substantial explosions have occurred at an industrial facility in the vicinity of 15 Mile Road and Groesbeck Highway in Fraser (Detroit) overnight. Several fatalities have been reported, including a 19-year-old located a quarter mile from the blast site, who was struck and killed by falling debris. The cause of the fire and explosions is not yet known.
AC: Due to the extremely kinetic nature of the explosions, much speculation abounds regarding the seat of the initial blast incident. As the area is heavily industrialized, the fire and explosions impacted a wide area, owing to conflicting reports as to which business was the origin of the initial incident.
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Analyst Comments: Multiple outages or service interruptions of completely different systems, from ISPs to social media, being reported all at the same time on Super Tuesday is indicative of nefarious intent just based on timing alone. While no cause has officially been disclosed, operating under the assumption of nefarious intent would be a wise decision.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1730Z March 6, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: HOUTHI ATTACKS ON SHIPPING CONTINUE. TEXAS WILDFIRE IMPACTS CATTLE GRAZING.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Germany: Yesterday an arson attack on an electrical transmission line in Berlin left a large Tesla factory without power throughout the day. The far-left organization Vulkangruppe (Volcano Group) has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Red Sea/HOA: The M/V TRUE CONFIDENCE was struck by at least one Houthi cruise missile this morning attempting to transit the Gulf of Aden. Several crew members were reportedly wounded in the strike, and several crew members are unaccounted for. The vessel is sinking, and the crew has abandoned ship. The last reported position of the abandoned vessel is in the vicinity of grid 38PMU4628118677.
-HomeFront-
MI: Further details emerge following the explosions at the industrial complex in the vicinity of Groesbeck Highway in Detroit, indicating that a large collection of nitrous oxide and butane tanks were being illegally stored at the facility. Authorities have indicated the initial fire began at Select Distributors, a wholesale distributor of vaping supplies. This company also sells large tanks of nitrous oxide, which are frequently used as a recreational inhalant.
TX: The second and third order effects of recent wildfires are beginning to manifest as ranchers report the substantial destruction of cattle and grazing land. JBS has already reported the direct loss of several thousand head of cattle due to the fire, and substantial efforts are underway among ranchers to provide hay and alfalfa to those affected by the disaster.`
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Analyst Comments: Though the fire damage throughout Texas is still being assessed, the loss of over a million acres of grazing land in Texas’s largest beef cattle region is likely to impact beef production in the form of higher prices. Over 85% of all cattle in Texas graze in the region affected by wildfire, which will likely result in even higher prices in an industry already negatively impacted by many different factors. According to the USDA’s National Agriculture Statistics Service, the U.S. national cattle supply is (as of January 1st) at its lowest level since 1951, with only 87.2 million heads of inventory.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//