Regarding Avdeevka:

Currently, the Ukrainians have applied most of their resources to stabilizing the flanks of the Avdeevka encirclement operation. They are hoping that the long-established fortifications facing Yasinovataya will hold, as the Russian Army has—understandably—not prioritized this direction, seeking to preserve servicemen lives.

This has put the Ukrainians at a disadvantage in the industrial area of Avdeevka fronting onto Yasinovataya. As a result, the Russian Army has been able to push into this sector, leading some TG channels to even claim that the industrial area is on the verge of being abandoned, with the Ukrainians pulling back to the residential sector of Avdeevka proper.

In reality, of course, the Ukrainians face a choice:

1) Chance it against a slow and methodical Russian push against the southeastern part of Avdeevka, while trying to keep the logistical and supply neck of the bag open. This would essentially become a repetition of the Artyomovsk operation (provided the Ukrainians manage to keep the Orlovka route open, somehow); or,

2) Pull back the reserves holding the encirclement from forming to defend the industrial area. This is the preferred option for the Russian Army, as it could minimize casualties, provided the cauldron is formed.

However, as the industrial area contains a number of dominant heights overlooking the city (see map 2), something that was not the case in Artyomovsk (see map 3), the first option is equally perilous for Ukraine. All the more so because there is absolutely no guarantee that they could avoid a full encirclement.

Damned in both cases. The optimal decision for Ukraine is to withdraw to the next line of defence. As long as Zelensky is in power, this—thankfully—will never happen. While the fall of Avdeevka is unlikely to cause an immediate cascade failure of the Ukrainian Donetsk and Donbass front, it will afford the Russian Army significant operational space to start bringing such a cascade failure to fruition (see this post).

@Slavyangrad /GB

What should the Ukrainians do? Here is what I think:

1) Withdraw behind Oskol from the left-bank Kupyansk and the Oskol-Zherebets pocket;

2) Withdraw from the Seversk, Chasov Yar, and Novogrodskoye-Dzerzhinsk (Niu-York-Toretsk) areas to the Izyum-Svyatogorsk-Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Konstantinovka line.

3) Withdraw from around Donetsk (including Avdeevka, Kransogorovka, Ugledar, etc.) to the Pokrovsk-Velikaya Novoselovka line.

4) Abadon their counteroink “gains” and go back to the Orekhov-Guliay Pole line.

5) Forget about the idiotic trans-Dneprian “bridgeheads” near Krynki, etc.

Then sit in defence, gather strength, build fortifications and pray for a ceasefire.

This is not meant to suggest that Russia can easily take these areas. Not at all, the war will continue being bloody and difficult whatever happens. But the Ukrainians are facing a financial catastrophe and military deficits of all kinds other than manpower.

By way of a comparison—the Russian withdrawal from right-bank Kherson allowed the Russian Army to crush the Ukrainian counteroink. Ukraine’s refusal to abandon Artyomovsk predetermined the fatal outcome of its summer-fall 2023 offensive.

Of course, these withdrawals will never happen—the already-fragile fascist Zelensky regime could be swept away as a result. So, here we have the Ukrainian zugzwang, in many ways self-imposed.

@Slavyangrad /GB

I have resolved for myself that I don’t care about Lvov. As long as the good people of the multiethnic population in the area outlined on the map are protected by their brethren in Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia from the Ukrainian Nazis and re-integrated into their homelands, Ukraine should continue to exist in the environs of Lwow as a warning to future generations of the dangers of fascism and reliance on US largesse.

EDIT: The Rusyns should be granted an independent state and hold a referendum on joining the Union State with Russia and Belarus.