❓As Germany’s ruling coalition implodes, what fate awaits Chancellor Scholz?

Germany’s ruling three-party coalition has collapsed after Chancellor Olaf Scholz booted Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the Free Democrats (FDP) party on Wednesday.

Why did the finance minister get the ax?

◻️ Scholz and Lindner were not on the same page on furthering aid to Ukraine, especially as Germany faces a projected 2025 budget shortfall of roughly €10 billion ($10.7 billion) that needs plugging.

◻️ The Chancellor’s proposed budget plan entailed getting deeper into debt to lower energy costs, rescue jobs in the beleaguered German automotive industry, and boost support for Ukraine.

◻️ Linder urged fiscal restraint, and refused to break a constitutionally enshrined spending limit, known as the debt brake. It restricts the federal deficit to 0.35 percent of GDP.

What happens next?

◻️ Scholz, who will lead a minority government consisting of his Social Democrats and the Greens, has called for a confidence vote scheduled for January 15. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz, the leader of the largest opposition party in parliament from the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), has been advocating for an immediate no-confidence vote.

◻️ Deprived of a parliamentary majority, Scholz would likely face defeat in the upcoming vote, leading Germany’s President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to dissolve parliament within 21 days. Consequently, an early election could potentially take place as soon as January.

◻️ Merz is considered a strong contender for the position of Chancellor, with 48% of respondents indicating they would select him for the role, according to a Politbarometer German election poll conducted in October.

◻️ Besides Merz, 28% of respondents said they consider incumbent Chancellor Scholz suitable for the office, while 26% would support Robert Habeck, the Economy Minister and leader of the Greens. Furthermore, 14% expressed their intention to vote for Alice Weidel of the AfD.

◻️ Merz has pushed for providing Taurus cruise missiles and fighter jets to the Zelensky government—despite the ruling cabinet’s reluctance—asserting that Ukraine "must win."

Germany, the second-largest supplier of military aid to the Kiev regime after the United States, has been plagued by problems since jumping on the US-led sanctions bandwagon against Russia. This policy plunged its economy into a technical recession last year, marked by deindustrialization and stinging inflation rates.

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🗣Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova on the Collapse of Germany's Coalition Government:

"The collapse of Germany's governing coalition has laid bare the primary flaw in the modern political system of the Federal Republic of Germany – it’s now a classic 'banana republic'," Zakharova told reporters.

"Incidentally, this is an American term first used by [short fiction writer] O. Henry back in 1904," she noted. "No other nation in the world has begun to reshuffle its own government in the wake of the US election’s outcome on the same day. Except Germany."

"What did you expect? Berlin failed to secure the vital Russian gas supply essential for its citizens and industrial complex, lost the opportunity to maintain economic growth, and passively watched its businesses and industries relocate to the US – all just to please Washington," Zakharova continued.

"To top off this self-destructive behavior, Berlin has stopped even pretending that the German government possesses any autonomy or pretending that it is not merely a representative of American neoliberals within the European Union."

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❓ What to expect from Putin’s Valdai Club speech?

Vladimir Putin will speak at the plenary session of the Valdai Club’s 21st Annual Meeting today. Held in Sochi from November 4 to 7, this year’s event centers on the theme “Lasting Peace on What Basis? Common Security and Equal Opportunities for Development in the 21st Century.”

What can we expect from the President’s address?

🔸 Philosophical tone: The speech is expected to be conceptual and worldview-oriented, reflecting Putin’s ideological perspective.

🔸 Focus on global peace and security: Given the theme, Putin will likely address issues of security and equality in the 21st century.

🔸 Comments on the US election: Putin may briefly touch on the US election, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested.

🔸 Engagement with global experts: With the Valdai Club bringing together international experts, Putin’s speech will likely resonate globally, encouraging dialogue on key issues.

In his 2023 address, Putin outlined six guiding principles that Russia aims to pursue and encourages other countries to uphold: openness to the world, diversity, inclusivity, universal security, justice for all and equality.

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📑 Trump peace plan outlined by WSJ has ‘minimal’ chance of being realized without tweaks - analyst

“The chances” of the Trump peace plan purportedly outlined in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday becoming a reality are “minimal” in its current form, Russian political and military analyst Sergey Poletaev told Sputnik.

“Russia will not accept it in its current form, because one of its main goals – the elimination of the military threat emanating from Ukraine, is not dealt with, and on the contrary. Accordingly, the plan will not be suitable to us in this form. But it could be some kind of starting point for negotiations,” Poletaev said, referencing the plan’s points – which include freezing the frontline, creating a demilitarized zone, pushing Kiev to abandon plans to join NATO for 20 years, and in exchange, continuing to supply Ukraine with weapons.

For Russia, “the first military threat emanates from Ukraine joining a major military bloc, that is, NATO, and advancing NATO infrastructure. The second relates to the pumping Ukraine up with weapons. Our ideal goal [includes] the democratization of Ukraine – that is, disarmament,” Poletaev said, pointing to the terms of the Istanbul agreement, and Russia’s peace proposal from this past June – which he recalled included points on reductions to the size of the Ukrainian military.

Whatever agreement is ultimately reached, its implementation over the long term will always depend first and foremost on Russia’s military, economic and political strength, the observer stressed.

“No peace treaty is permanent. The results of a military conflict are safeguarded by the strength of the side that won. Accordingly, if in 20 years we are at least as strong as we are now, we will ensure that Ukraine does not join NATO in 20 years,” Poletaev said, emphasizing that it’s the balance of power between nations and their perception of threats, not pieces of paper on which agreements are written, that determine whether or not they are observed.

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🐀 Russian scientists have connected a rat's brain to artificial intelligence, enabling it to answer scientific questions accurately.

Through electrical stimulation, the AI guides the rat to respond with "yes" or "no" answers.

This groundbreaking experiment could pave the way for neurointerfaces that allow humans to access vast AI knowledge directly.

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❓Can Electoral College vote change the outcome of US election?

With Donald Trump breaking through the 270 Electoral College vote victory threshold to be declared president-elect on Tuesday, the next stage of the process is the result’s confirmation by each state’s electors. Appointed electors meet to vote for the president and vice president of the US. But what if they rebel?

Have electors ever voted for another candidate?

🔸 Yes: A "faithless elector" is one who votes for someone other than the candidate chosen by their state’s citizens, or abstains from voting.

🔸 There have been 157 faithless electors in US history who went against the will of their states’ voters. Of that group, 71 electors could not pick a candidate because he had died between election day and when the Electoral College convened.

🔸 The first faithless elector was Samuel Miles from Pennsylvania who cast his vote in 1796 for Thomas Jefferson, even though his state’s choice was John Adams.

🔸 Most recently in the 2016 election seven electors refused to vote for the candidate favoured by voters: two refused to vote for Republican candidate Donald Trump and five rejected Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Could presidential electors change the outcome of race?

🔸 No: On July 6, 2020, the US Supreme Court ruled that "a state may enforce an elector's pledge to support his party's nominee – and the state voters' choice – for President,” and that “electors are not free agents; they are to vote for the candidate whom the State’s voters have chosen."

Have faithless electors ever changed the outcome of election?

🔸 In every previous case the number of rebels has been too small to influence the outcome of the presidential election.

🔸 The National Constitution Center describes two cases in which faithless electors nearly changed the vice-presidential result:

🔹 After the 1832 election, 30 electors pledged for Martin Van Buren changed their minds, but he was still elected.

🔹 Richard Mentor Johnson was almost denied the second-highest office by a mass rebellion of electors in 1836, but he was appointed by the Senate under 12th Amendment rules.

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