🔹Mar. 4th 2024 - The price of gold reached a record high as hopes mount for a US 🇺🇸 rate cut this summer, following weaker-than-expected economic data published last week. The price of the precious metal surged to $2,114 (£1,664) an ounce in the spot market, after steady increases over the past few weeks. The biggest driver of the recent gold surge seems to be its role as a safe haven asset during political and economic uncertainty.

🔹Robust physical buying by central banks and investors in Asia has provided strong support to gold prices. Central bank demand, in particular, is seen as a key factor in sustaining high gold prices, counterbalancing profit-taking by other investors. Central bank net gold purchases totaled 1,037 tons in 2023. That fell just 45 tons short of 2022’s multi-decade record.

🔹China 🇨🇳 was the biggest buyer in 2023. The People’s Bank of China officially reported a 225-ton increase in its gold reserves. Total central bank gold buying in 2022 came in at 1,136 tons. It was the highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.

🔹The rush to gold by central banks is also driven by countries’ desire to weaken their dependence on the US dollar as a reserve currency, after Washington weaponised the greenback in its sanctions against Russia 🇷🇺. Investors tend to stockpile gold during times of uncertainty, like during recessions or wars, to protect themselves against inflation or depreciating currencies.

Video source: Sean Foo

The de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪- Part 13:

🔹 An Allianz Trade bankruptcy study shows a sharp increase in German corporate insolvencies in 2H 2023, up 23% 📈 YoY. For 2024, bankruptcies are expected to increase further with a forecast of around 20,260 cases, up 9% YoY.

🔹Bundesbank report shows economy likely in recession for Q1 2024, citing "industry will likely remain in a weak phase".

🔹EU 🇪🇺 industries are struggling, with industrial output falling by 5.7% in Jan. '24 and nearly one million manufacturing jobs lost in the past four years. EU-China relations is in a downward spiral as China 🇨🇳 relies less on Western markets for manufacturing and technology goods.

🔹 Glass manufacturer Ritzenhoff of Hochsauerland declares bankruptcy after 120 years of operation.

🔹205,000 German jobs threatened or lost in 2023 by company insolvencies.

🔹Over 330 years after its foundation, the Koblenz Brewery auctions off its inventory after filing for bankruptcy.

🔹 Kitchen accessories manufacturer M. Westermann of North Rhine-Westphalia, bankrupt after being founded 150 years ago.

🔹 The KaDeWe Group (owner of several of Germany's most iconic high-end department stores) have applied for restructuring under self-administration, a type of bankruptcy filing.

🔹 Mattress manufacturer, the Breckle Group, which has existed since the 1930s is insolvent.

🔹 German firms committed $15.7 billion in capital projects to the U.S. last year, marking a steep rise on 2022’s figure of $5.9 billion.

Previous parts on the de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪:

💠 Part 12- Jan. '24

💠 Part 11- Oct. '23

💠 Part 10 - Sep. '23

💠 Part 9 - Aug. '23

💠 Part 8 - Jun. '23

💠 Part 7 - May '23

💠 Part 6 - Mar '23

💠 Part 5 - Feb. '23

💠 Part 4 - Jan. '23

💠 Part 2 and Part 3 - Nov. '22

💠 Part 1 - Oct. '22

Video Source: Afd in English

🔹Gold surged to another all-time high 📈 on Monday 21st October 2024 (surpassing last Thursday's ATH), fuelled by geopolitical tensions and central bank interest rate cuts. Gold’s price climbed 0.4% to $2,732.45 USD a troy ounce in London, representing a 40% gain in the past year.

🔹Speculation leads many to believe that Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 is secretly accumulating gold, after acquiring 160 tonnes of undeclared purchases since 2022 through Switzerland. Any country’s cross-border gold trade statistics refer to “non-monetary” metal, meaning privately owned. From 2022, net imports began to consistently outpace consumer demand. Since gold (ETFs hardly exist in Saudi Arabia, the most logical explanation is the Saudi Central Bank is buying the difference through private buyers.

🔹Approximately 43 tons of gold bullion, valued at $2.5 billion, were imported into Iran 🇮🇷 from March 21-September 20. A six-fold increase compared to the same period a year ago.

🔹 Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 is set to withdraw gold mining permits from some foreign companies operating in the country. Military leader Ibrahim Traoré said “We know how to mine our gold and I don’t understand why we are going to let multinationals come and mine it…".

🔹 Tanzania's 🇹🇿 mining regulator has ordered all mining firms and traders exporting gold to allocate at least 20% of the commodity for sale to the central bank to bolster the bank's move to diversify its foreign reserves.

🔹Note that there is gold's buying in India🇮🇳 and China 🇨🇳, where gold holds a unique cultural significance and where economic conditions have further amplified its allure. India saw gold imports surge to a record $10.1 billion in August—more than double compared to a year ago. This month is a high buying season due to festivals in India.

Photo Source: Money Metals

Plans for a post Bretton-Woods monetary system is underway at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia 🇷🇺 October 22-24.

🔹The joint communique of BRICS 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦🇮🇷🇪🇬🇪🇹 member states support the improvement of the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) via envisaging alternative eligible currencies. The CRA is an important mechanism to forestall short-term balance of payments pressures.

🔹Members welcome the BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism (ICM) focus on facilitating and expanding innovative financial practices, including finding acceptable mechanisms of financing in local currencies.

🔹The declaration recognized the widespread benefits of more efficient, transparent, safe, and inclusive cross-border payment instruments based on minimizing trade barriers and ensuring non-discriminatory access (alluding to Russia's exclusion from SWIFT).

🔹BRICS member states strongly oppose and condemn the practice of unilateral politically motivated sanctions that undermine the development of other countries. This was declared in light of October 23rd 2024, when the US 🇺🇸 stated its plans to (illegally) transfer $20 billion to the Kiev regime from the proceeds of Russian sovereign assets blocked by the West.

🔹Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian called on member states to not continue depending on Western payment systems. This is a big threat," he said and called for "creating alternative possibilities" in this field.

🔹BRICS members support further growth in the number of countries - shareholders of the New Development Bank (NBD) and expedited consideration of applications from association members.

🔹Russia signs agreements with China 🇨🇳 and South Africa 🇿🇦 on credit lines in national currencies.

🔹BRICS countries intend to increase the turnover of precious metals between the member states.

🔹BRICS members agree to take joint measures to oppose unilateral protectionist measures not compliant with provisions of the WTO.

🔹Egypt 🇪🇬 attaches great importance to the transition to financial settlements in national currencies within the BRICS group.

🔹 Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a BRICS investment platform to assist the economic growth of member countries and the development of the Global South and East. Partner countries would benefit from a significant increase of investment in areas such as technology, education, trade, and logistics.

Video Source: RT

🔹The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) 🇨🇭plans to quit a cross-border payment system project after Russian 🇷🇺 President Vladimir Putin mentions it as a key tool in global de-dollarization efforts. After years of development, Western Central Banks wants to prevent such a project from being utilized by BRICS countries.

🔹The BIS will quit Project mBridge, (a wholesale central bank digital currencies (CBDC)) bridge Innovation Hub it has helped develop since 2021. With Project mBridge, cross-border payment steps can be significantly reduced by allowing direct, bilateral connectivity between the payee’s and payer’s local banks supported by interoperability with participants’ domestic payment systems.

🔹BRICS member countries see the system as a means of reducing their reliance on the U.S.-dominated financial system while minimizing the effects of potential U.S. sanctions. Project mBridge, is a collaboration launched in 2021 between the BIS and the central banks of China 🇨🇳, Hong Kong 🇭🇰, Thailand 🇹🇭and the United Arab Emirates 🇦🇪, then joined by the Saudi Arabian 🇸🇦central bank in June. It also has many more observing members.

🔹The experimental platform developed for Project mBridge is a purpose-developed permissioned distributed ledger technology (DLT) that supports instant peer-to-peer and atomic cross-border payments and FX transactions.

🔹Each participant on the Project mBridge platform achieves full control over its infrastructure and operations. The core component is the mBL node, which is the DLT node used in the peer-to-peer network. Central banks’ mBL nodes are validator nodes that take part in the consensus protocol. Meanwhile, commercial bank nodes are ordinary mBL nodes that share the same capabilities as central bank nodes, but do not take part in the consensus mechanism.

Photo Source: BIS

🔹Nov. 05th '24 - The USA 🇺🇸 has imposed more sanctions on the development of Russia's Novatek PJSC’s Arctic LNG 2 project and its shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as other future energy projects. The sanctioned companies and individuals targeted are mainly in Russia 🇷🇺, China🇨🇳, Hong Kong🇭🇰, the United Arab Emirates🇦🇪, Türkiye🇹🇷, Thailand🇹🇭, Malaysia 🇲🇾 and Switzerland 🇨🇭. Despite sanctions, Arctic LNG 2 is planning to produce the first LNG from its second train in early December.

🔹Russia plans to arrange ship-to-ship transfers of LNG and gas condensate in the Barents and Bering Seas to free up more ice-class tankers for its biggest LNG producer, Novatek.

🔹China's heavy lift ship Ocean28, without ice-class has been granted permission to sail through the remote Arctic waters to Utrenny. During October only one nuclear powered icebreaker operated along the eastern part of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as more icebreakers is required.

🔹Russia has shortlisted Indian 🇮🇳 shipyards to build four non-nuclear icebreaker ships. The project will significantly boost India’s shipbuilding capabilities and enhance maritime ties between India and Russia, strengthening bilateral relations. An MoU has been drafted between the Indian and Russian gov'ts for the development of cooperation in cargo shipping through the NSR.

🔹US sanctions on Russia's Arctic LNG-2 project threatens US ally, Japan's 🇯🇵 energy-security and economy as Japanese investment was also tied up in the project.

🔹The NSR is reshaping global energy flows as it now takes half the time for a tanker from Russia to arrive in Asia instead of taking the conventional route through the Suez Canal 🇪🇬. Russia wants the NSR, the shortest shipping route between East Asia and Europe, to become a major shipping lane and has invested heavily in infrastructure there.

The de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪- Part 14 (Nov. '24)

🔹 Volkswagen plans to close three German factories in an effort aimed at cost cutting over $4.3 billion. IG Metall Union plans worker strikes for December. VW workers at Osnabrueck plant held fresh warning strike.

🔹VW's EV subsidiary is unable to compete in foreign car markets such as China. Chinese domestic producers of EV (ex. BYD) is able to produce at lower costs than VW. A 10.2% drop in VW sales in China in just the first nine months of 2024, has effectively wiped out VW gains made in all other markets.

🔹VW subsidiary Audi is planning to reduce its workforce by 15%.

🔹Germany's Siemens head of tax service C. Kezer tells finance committee of the Bundestag that investing in Germany is pointless and the co. will invest abroad.

🔹German industrial orders for August fell by 5.8% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis.

💠 German companies declaring bankruptcy/insolvency recently:

🔹 Metal precision parts manufacturer Schumag AG from Aachen, founded in 1830.

🔹 Lauchhammer art foundry, Germany's oldest, after 275 years of history. Co. claims the world's first cast of cast iron in one piece, as well as the first bell cast of a cast iron bell that has still been preserved.

🔹 Schrutka-Peukert, manufacturer of refrigerators and sales counters from Bavaria, founded in 1871.

🔹 Traditional confectionery manufacturer Leysieffer, existing since 1909.

🔹 Private hospital Diakoniewerk Munich-Maxvorstadt, founded in 1867 as a deaconess institution, making it one of the oldest Protestant institutions in Munich.

🔹 Bakery chain Krachenfels Handels GmbH after 340 years of operation.

Previous parts on the de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪:

💠 Part 13- Mar. '24 💠 Part 12- Jan. '24

💠 Part 11- Oct. '23 💠 Part 10 - Sep. '23

💠 Part 9 - Aug. '23 💠 Part 8 - Jun. '23

💠 Part 7 - May '23 💠 Part 6 - Mar '23

💠 Part 5 - Feb. '23 💠 Part 4 - Jan. '23

💠 Part 2 and Part 3 - Nov. '22

💠 Part 1 - Oct. '22

Video Source: Afd in English

🔹Nov 15th, 2024: EU Farmers 🚜 are protesting again, this time to oppose the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, saying increased imports from South America will hurt the European Union's agriculture. Farmers dragged tractors and waved flags in front of the EU 🇪🇺 headquarters in Brussels, Belgium 🇧🇪 this week claiming the agreement "does not provide fair prices for farmers."

🔹Mercosur (The Southern Common Market) is a customs union comprising of 12 Latin American countries with a free intra-zone trade & a common trade policy. The EU and Mercosur reached a principled agreement in 2019 after 20 years of FTA negotiations, but stalled after the EU demanded the addition of new conditions, including environmental protection obligations.

🔹The new European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maroš Šefčovič said the free trade deal could be "concluded on very very fair ground". A new EU law banning the import of products linked to the destruction of the world's forests has been controversial, though its implementation is on the verge of being put off for another year.

🔹In Ireland 🇮🇪, farmers have been protesting outside the Dáil, calling on all elected representatives to oppose the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. Europe's Copa and Cogeca, which represent farmers and agricultural co-ops have voiced opposition. Poland's 🇵🇱 agriculture ministry has registered reservations about the deal.

🔹Protests in Aurillac, in southern France 🇫🇷, was the start of a fresh wave expected to spread amid concern that the deal could be finalized at the G20 summit in Brazil 🇧🇷 on Nov. 18-19 despite the French minister of agriculture, Annie Genevard, saying it was “highly unlikely." A group of more than 600 French lawmakers also published an open letter in claiming that the conditions for the deal “have not been met."

🔹 The EU have seen lots of farmer protests in the last year for various reasons. In Poland and Romania, they protested against cheap pesticide contaminated grain from Ukraine, removal of subsidies in Germany angered farmers, Lithuanian farmers forced to restore permanent grasslands, Dutch farmers protested nitrogen policies that would restrict livestock farming.

Video Source: EuroNews

🔹Russia is temporarily restricting enriched uranium exports to the U.S.🇺🇸, raising supply concerns for US reactors that produce nearly 20% of the nation's electricity. This is an expected symmetrical response to the actions of the American authorities, which adopted the law banning the import of Russian 🇷🇺 uranium in May this year. However, the decree provides for a special procedure of organizing Russian uranium deliveries to the US territory and to the US customers.

🔹Enriching uranium is a highly specialized process that can only be done in certain countries, such as Russia that also has some of the world's largest uranium supplies. While the US is self-sufficient in fabrication, uranium, and uranium processing, U.S. capabilities in conversion and enrichment are another matter.

🔹Kazakhstan 🇰🇿, the world’s largest uranium producer, has secured shareholder approval for major contracts with Chinese companies. The construction of a new power plant in Kazakhstan was greenlighted by referendum in early October. Potential partners to build the plant: Russia’s Rosatom, China’s National Nuclear Corporation, South Korea’s Hydro & Nuclear Power, and France’s EDF.

🔹China 🇨🇳 intends to build over 100 new nuclear reactors by 2035. “China today likely stands 10 to 15 years ahead of the United States in its ability to deploy fourth-generation nuclear reactors at scale.

🔹 Niger 🇳🇪 welcomes Russian uranium mining companies to operate. Tensions between France and Niger had forced Niger's authorities to revoke uranium mining licenses to French companies.

🔹The Italian 🇮🇹 gov't has appointed teams to draft specific laws to address a renewed Italian interest in nuclear energy.

🔹 Uranium mines in the Athabasca Basin, Canada 🇨🇦 sees mining activity pick up in recent years with old mines reopening to improve output.

Photo Source: Bloomberg

🔹 An estimated 20,000 British farmers and their families have taken part in a huge London🇬🇧, protest against the Labour gov't inheritance tax, today, 19th Nov. 2024. The tax, part of Labour's autumn budget, will see farmers pay a 20% tax on inherited agricultural assets worth over £1m from April 2026 onwards.

🔹 Farmers 🚜 have reacted with anger and dismay to the inheritance tax changes for farming businesses, which limit the existing 100% relief for farms to only the first £1 million of combined agricultural and business property. Some farmers warn they will have to sell off land to meet the inheritance tax costs and are threatening to strike over the pressures they say they are being put under by Government policy.

🔹 🇬🇧National Farmers’ Union president Tom Bradshaw said "...this is a policy that will rip the heart out of Britain’s family farms, launched on bad data with no consultation, and it must be halted and considered properly.”

🔹 Last week and this week EU Farmers 🚜 are protesting in opposition to the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, saying increased imports from South America will hurt the European Union's agriculture.

🔹 The EU 🇪🇺 have seen lots of farmer protests in the last year for various reasons. In Poland and Romania, they protested against cheap pesticide contaminated grain from Ukraine, removal of subsidies in Germany angered farmers, Lithuanian farmers forced to restore permanent grasslands, Dutch farmers protested nitrogen policies that would restrict livestock farming.

Video source: Livestream Events

🔹 Two of the world’s biggest foreign holders of US 🇺🇸 Treasuries, China and Japan have been offloading U.S. debt in Q3 of 2024. Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion of the securities in the three months ended Sept. 30. Funds in China 🇨🇳 offloaded $51.3 billion during the same period, the second biggest sum on record.

🔹 Japan’s 🇯🇵 selling may have been in part amplified by the nation’s intervention in the foreign-exchange market to buy the Yen. Japan and China still own $1.02 trillion and $731 billion worth of Treasuries, respectively. The yield on a US 3-month bond is 4.54% and on the 5-Year bond is at 4.30%.

🔹 On the other side of the bond trade, China will sell dollar denominated bonds in Saudi Arabia this month, its first debt issuance denominated in the US currency since October 2021. China is Saudi Arabia’s 🇸🇦 most important trade partner, buying 16% of the kingdom’s exports and supplying 23% of its imports in Q2 2024.

🔹 Possibly, investors are offloading US bonds due to an expectation of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Some countries are selling US bonds to bolster their own currency value and also as an effort to diversify from dollar assets. Israel 🇮🇱 is one such example of a country reducing US Treasury bond holdings while increasing its assets in yuan, Canadian dollars, Australia dollars and yen.

🔹 Last November, Moody's lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to "negative" 🔻from "stable" citing large fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability. One year ago exactly, this channel highlighted that the Yen carry trade will affect the US bond market due to the BoJ's flexibility in its own bond market.

Photo Source: Bloomberg

🔹 Ex-Polish gov't official claims up to 50% of financial aid given to Ukraine is embezzled in corruption. Former 🇵🇱 Deputy Labour Minister Piotr Kulpa accused US 🇺🇸 aid programs of giving massive salaries / bonuses to Ukrainian officials and writing off large sums of money that finance "shady systems under Democratic Party control." He asserted, “...to every European and American taxpayer, this system is criminal from start to finish” during a mid-November 2024 interview.

🔹 This April, French 🇫🇷 politician Florian Philippot, leader of the Les Patriotes party claimed that aid to Ukraine, “...in reality a large part is diverted and goes into corruption!”. Hungary's 🇭🇺 PM Viktor Orban raised this corruption issue at the EU level and attempted to block billions of EU taxpayers money going to Ukraine, but failed after facing enormous pressure from other member states. Slovakia's 🇸🇰 PM Robert Fico also warned that European money is being embezzled in Ukraine.

🔹In February, the US Dep't of Defense Inspector General at the Pentagon’ said its criminal investigators have opened more than 50 corruption cases related to aid provided to Ukraine. The Inspector General also found that the Pentagon did not properly track $1 billion worth of military equipment sent to Ukraine 🇺🇦, raising concerns that it was stolen. This was after employees from a Ukrainian arms firm conspired with defense ministry officials to embezzle almost $40 million earmarked to buy 100,000 mortar shells.

🔹 In December 2022, the EU dismissed warnings when Nigerian 🇳🇬 President M. Buhari urged heads of neighbouring African states 🇧🇯 🇹🇩 🇳🇪 🇨🇫 to take independent action against Western arms smuggling from Ukraine. Boko Haram & ISIS terrorists in Africa were receiving weapons from Ukraine through the black market.

🔹Way back in July 2022, this channel warned about weapons from NATO countries to Ukraine being purchased on the dark web (pics in original post) at huge discounts. We also drew reference to two Caesar self-propelled howitzers ($7 million each) sold by Ukrainians to Russia 🇷🇺 for $120,000 though an intermediary.

Video Source: Ukraine Leaks

🔹 Election shock and panic ensues across the EU Commission and NATO because an independent candidate (sovereigntist) won Romania's 🇷🇴 Presidential election 1st round. A Romanian constitutional court yesterday, (Nov. 28th 2024) asked the official electoral authority to recount and verify all of the ballots cast, after attempts to cancel the election failed. The US - UK - EU & Romanian media have been non-stop smearing Mr Călin Georgescu, since he won the election round on 25th Nov.

🔹 Mr. Georgescu won against 13 other candidates in the 1st round with 22.94% of the votes. Media across the West and in Romania label him 'pro- Russia', 'far-right', 'NATO critic' and 'ultranationalist' due to his 'Romania first' position. He was not invited to presidential debates hosted by Romanian media and didn't pay for political broadcasts on TV, but brilliantly used social media and podcast appearances to get his message out.

🔹 The European Parliament's 🇪🇺 liberal political group, "Renew Europe," Valerie Hyer, has called on TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew to appear before the European Parliament to address concerns of social media interfering in elections. ANCOM, Romania's telecommunications market regulator will ask for the suspension of the TikTok platform in Romania.

🔹 Romania's Supreme Defense Council met to discuss possible risks to the country and its electoral process stemming from social media. Protesting against the results have started using students also, supported by political parties & NGO's against Mr Georgescu.

🔹 Mr. Georgescu holds a doctorate in pedology, a branch of soil science, and held different positions in Romania’s environment ministry in the 1990s. Between 1999 and 2012, he was a representative for Romania on the national committee of the UN Environment Program. He promotes peace for the Ukraine 🇺🇦🇷🇺 conflict and not escalation, supports the Romanian Orthodox Church, Romanian farmers, reducing import dependence, and ramping up local energy and food production.

Video Source: Ștefan Mandachi

🔹 Martial law in South Korea 🇰🇷 ends after 6 hours due to the country´s National Assembly (Parliament) constitutionally voting to revoke the declaration of emergency. President Yoon Suk Yeol lifted martial law, at 4:20 a.m, December4th, 2024. Police and military personnel were seen leaving the grounds of the National Assembly after they were reportedly earlier breaking into the building to arrest lawmakers.

🔹 Yoon said that he made the declaration "to protect the free Republic of Korea from the threat of North Korean communist forces and to eradicate the despicable pro-North Korean anti-state forces. The U.S. 🇺🇸 White House National Security Council claims to have not been notified in advance of this announcement.

🔹 Yoon's declaration marks the first time in more than 40 years that the government has declared martial law. Former dictator Chun Doo-Hwan declared martial law in 1980 after seizing power in a military coup. The president urged the Assembly "to immediately cease reckless acts such as repeated impeachments, legislative manipulations and budgetary disruptions that are paralyzing the functions of the state."

🔹 Opposition parties hinted at proceeding with an immediate impeachment of President Yoon. The opposition says his proclamation of martial law utterly failed to meet the substantive requirements stipulated by the Constitution and the Martial Law Act."

🔹 Last week, President Yoon faced public opposition to arm Ukraine 🇺🇦 as a Ukrainian delegation visited with the aim "to strengthen South Korea-Ukraine security". South Korea is one of the world’s largest weapons exporters and has inked large, lucrative defense deals with Ukraine’s neighbors. However, Yoon could not promise Ukraine any weapons due also to Russia 🇷🇺 reacting by boosting ties with North Korea and US President elect Trump' Ukraine's peace plan not yet made clear.

Video Source: Al Jazeera

🔹 China bans exports to the United States 🇺🇸 of rare earth elements (REE) gallium, germanium, the metalloid antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications, as a general principle, lashing back at U.S. limits on semiconductor-related exports. China firmly opposes the U.S. abuse of export control measures, illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction against Chinese companies.

🔹 Antimony prices soared 40% yesterday, Dec 04th 2024 after the news broke. China 🇨🇳 imposed export restrictions on REE gallium and germanium in July 2023. China´s updated ban also include exports of super-hard materials, such as diamonds and other synthetic materials that are not compressible and extremely dense.

🔹 The U.S. military depends very heavily on China for the hard to mine 'metalloid element' antimony. The U.S. has no domestic mine ⛏️. Antimony is used to produce night vision goggles, armor-piercing bullets, explosives and nuclear weapons. China sits on reserves of over 145,000 tonnes. In 2nd is Canada 🇨🇦 with 7,000 metric tonnes. Russia 🇷🇺sits in 3rd with 6,500 metric tonnes.

🔹 Germanium is used in fiber optic products and military applications due to it being transparent to infrared radiation. Gallium is used for radio frequency chips for mobile phones and satellite 📡 communication. China produces 60% of the world's germanium and 80% of gallium. Both metals are byproducts from processing other commodities such as coal and bauxite. China has the largest portion of gallium reserves at 68% & accounted for 98% of worldwide primary low-purity gallium production in 2022.

Photo Source: Prashant Garg - Each node is a product. Size of node based on how "important" or "central" product is in international trade. Blue nodes are capital goods, silver are intermediates and green are final consumption good.

🔹 The foreign ministers of Russia 🇷🇺, Iran 🇮🇷, and Türkiye 🇹🇷 on 7th Dec. 2024, were unable to make any progress to push forward a substantial ceasefire in Syria along the path of constructive dialogue under the framework of UN Resolution 2254. Turkish attacks in southern and western Manbij, located in northeastern Aleppo is presently ongoing.

🔹 Iran´s FM said Syria 🇸🇾 was being attacked by “tens of armed terrorist groups”, adding that the armed groups were not Syrian nationals. He claimed that the US and Israel were playing a significant role in the antigovernment offensive in Syria in pursuit of a “new Middle East” agenda.

🔹 In just over a week, opposition forces in Syria have seized major cities, including Aleppo, and large swaths of territory. They’ve faced little or no resistance from the Syrian military, apart from air strikes involving Russia. The weakening of Syria’s govt is going to have massive implications in the region, as Iran would find it difficult to transfer weapons to the Lebanon´s Hezbollah. The attack on Syria, happened the day after the Israel🇮🇱/Hezbollah 🇱🇧 ceasefire started, which is now creating a new weakness for Hezbollah.

🔹 The Syrian Arab Army continues confronting armed groups in Hama and Homs, while simultaneously strengthening its positions around Damascus. HTS (Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham), a terrorist group composed of ex-al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates, including Jabhat al-Nusra, functions as a Turkish-Israeli-US 🇺🇸 proxy in Syria.

🔹 Shiites, Alawites, Christians, family members of army, religious sites and other religious minorities face grave danger after terrorist captures. The ongoing fighting in Syria is expected to displace around 1.5 million people, says the UN 🇺🇳 World Food Programme. This is a breaking point for a food crisis in the country where 12.9 million people are already considered food insecure.

Video Source: Southfront

🔹 In the past 48 hours, Israel 🇮🇱 has totally annexed the Golan Heights of Syria seizing the UN supervised military buffer zone, bombed 320 Syrian military infrastructure and sank Syria's Navy fleet. This follows the continued collapse of Syria after former President Al-Assad fled. The terrorists 'moderate rebels' that are now in charge did not protect any of these military assets and gave no resistance to slow down Israel's annexation of Syrian territory.

🔹 Israel is in control of the strategic Syrian side of the Mount Hermon mountain range, however the IDF spokesman has denied this. The Israeli military penetrated deep into Syria, with IDF tanks spotted 25 kilometres from the Syrian capital Damascus. Egypt 🇪🇬, Qatar 🇶🇦 and Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 have condemned the incursion. Syria's Navy base at Latakia lies in ruins with no ship left intact.

🔹 However, Israel claims it was bombing Syrian military facilities housing chemical weapons stocks and long-range missiles to prevent them from falling “into the hands of extremists.” Lebanon's 🇱🇧 Hezbollah called on the UN 🇺🇳Security Council, the international community, and Arab and Islamic nations to reject and end the occupation of Syrian territories. Syria is almost totally de-militarized.

🔹 The head of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) originally affiliated with al-Qaeda, Abu Mohammed al-Golani is being hailed by western media as a future leader of Syria, but failed to mention that the US had set a $10 million reward for his capture. The UK doesn't know how to justify to the public its plans to remove HTS from it's terrorism list.

🔹 Videos are appearing on social media of reported public executions of Syrian military officials and minority groups such as Christians and Shia Alawites. None of which is reported in the corporate media. Al Jazeera reportedly saw piles of bodies, some showing signs of torture, at Harasta military hospital near Damascus, possibly from the notorious Sednaya prison under Syrian 🇸🇾 authorities.

Video source: SouthFront

🔹 Confiscating the Russian Federation's (RF 🇷🇺) frozen assets in the EU can lead to risks in clearing and settlement of securities transactions across Euro-zone and possibly start a selling spree of European bonds by international holders due to loss of trust.

🔹 Valérie Urbain, the CEO of the Euroclear group (the Belgium 🇧🇪-based clearinghouse), says confiscation entails serious risks for the organisation itself and the financial stability of Europe. Although the EU has allocated some of frozen asset's interest to Ukraine, it has not yet seized the principal assets.

🔹 Despite these warnings, EU 🇪🇺 foreign ministers met on 16th Dec. 2024 to discuss 'legal' illegal methods to do so. The EU claims to be assessing the financial implications of confiscation. 🇺🇸 President Biden has also continued to encourage the EU, which holds the bulk of Russia’s frozen cash, to pursue confiscation, including on a Dec. 13th G-7 call.

🔹 The US & EU states made no official declaration of war against Russia, making them third parties. Therefore there is no legality in the confiscation of Russian assets by the West. EU officials are fixed on legalizing illegality by confiscating private property outside the framework of a criminal trial.

🔹 Last year, the EU Commission President U. von der Leyen disregarded the European Central Bank fears that confiscation would damage the euro or financial markets. In accordance with international law, Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves are protected by sovereign immunity.

🔹 A reason the EU believes confiscation can be 'legally' done is due to the 'UN Convention 🇺🇳 on Jurisdictional Immunities of States & Their Property 2004' not yet in force. The EU's top diplomat K. Kallas, remarked that she doubted there would be any funds left to return to Russia. On Dec. 18th the EU adopted a 15th package of sanctions against Russia. Germany’s 🇩🇪 authorities have frozen Russian assets worth around 3.5 bln euro within the EU’s sanctions regime by now.

🔹 China´s 🇨🇳 DeepSeek AI model wiped out over $1 trillion in market capitalization of US technology stocks 🔻 yesterday 27th January 2025. The Chinese startup, which last week announced a breakthrough in AI technology threatens to upend the economic fundamentals of the industry.

🔹 The open-source AI DeepSeek has outperformed models from OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic in some third-party tests. The difference is that DeepSeek is offered for free, making money only by selling services to developers - not to the public – at a fraction of the price OpenAI charges. Anyone can study and copy how it was made. So hundreds of billions invested into AI by Western Tech firms may result in a negative ROI.

🔹 DeepSeek restructured the foundation of AI models, emphasizing software-driven resource optimization over hardware dependency. For example, custom communication schemes between chips to improve data transfer efficiency, memory-saving techniques, and reinforcement learning methods to minimize computational power requirements. These optimizations result in drastically lower costs compared to traditional large language models.

🔹 Estimates place the AI training cost of just $5.6 million, far less than the billions what OpenAI, Meta, and most US-based companies budget for similar operations. The mobile app for DeepSeek, skyrocketed to the No. 1 spot in app stores around the world.

🔹Not even the storm of Former 🇺🇸 President Biden’s approved restrictions on chip exports to China in the last three years stopped DeepSeek from training its latest models. "Attempts to limit China's access to US technology, in this case chips and chip equipment, have very likely incentivized China to develop on their own, and become more independent of U.S. capabilities in the process".

Video source: Reuters

🔹Gold has been hitting record highs the past few weeks in Feb, '25, hitting a all-time high 📈of $2950 USD. More than 600 tons, or almost 20 million ounces of gold, has been transported into vaults in New York City 🇺🇸 since Dec. '24. Are US traders looking to close out of short positions, or those holding physical gold in NY expects to short futures contracts to capture the outsized premium or something else going on?

🔹The gold inventory at the NY-based Commodity Exchange, (COMEX), has increased more than 70% since the start of the year. Normally, the price of gold in NY and London 🇬🇧 is roughly the same, but recently the New York price is substantially higher (a gap topping $50 per troy ounce).

🔹The COMEX warehouses used by gold traders accept only gold bars of a certain size and weight. That means the gold shipments from London go first to Swiss 🇨🇭refineries, to be melted down and reformed into a smaller shape and then sent on to NY. Swiss gold exports to the US shot up to more than 190 metric tons in Jan., triple the amount in Dec. '24.

🔹In London gold change hands in commercial vaults run by dealers such as JPMorgan Chase and HSBC. The Bank of England (BoE) also holds deposits on behalf of the UK Treasury, other central banks. The BOE is often considered the last resort to tap for the physical market.

🔹Possibly because of the urgency to get ahead of any Trump tariffs that may hit the yellow metal, both the commercial vaults and BoE’s cache have been drawn upon. The BOE saw its biggest gold outflows since 2012 in Jan. '25.

🔹China's 🇨🇳total gold imports via Hong Kong 🇭🇰 in January fell 44.8% from December as buyers avoid purchases due to record high prices. The Reserve Bank of India brought back more than 214 tonnes of gold in the past year from the vaults in Europe including those belonging to the BoE. Volumes shipped from Singapore 🇸🇬 to the US rose to about 11 tonnes in Jan., up 27% from Dec., and the largest amount since Mar. '22.

🔹Poland’s 🇵🇱 central bank has been one of the biggest buyers in recent years, with plans to increase gold to 20% of its reserves. Other big buyers have been the central banks of China, India 🇮🇳 and Turkey 🇹🇷. We're also seeing a significant surge in gold being pulled from COMEX vaults as investors take physical delivery instead of rolling future contracts over.

Video Source: Maneco64