This is unbelievable.

Almost 2/3 of the early vote in VA is from R+ districts.

The two biggest canaries in the coal mine people are missing as to why the Harris campaign is in free fall have nothing to do with managed narrative polling of swing states.

1) Harris campaign begging for another debate, and insisting on CNN only. Her CEILING is to win or “win” by an eyelash (last election even when “fortified” was 42,918 ballots in three states and 4.5% popular vote margin), and a campaign holding that has avoided scrutiny at all costs wanting a debate isn’t a sign she is holding on by an eyelash.

2) Accidentally accurate polls showing VA tight and NY in the low teens - all historical precedent, especially for NY, means a large right shift in the Rust Belt +WI/MN/NJ.

The most distant of the 7 decisive states has the strangest voter behavior of the entire slate. Here is a trend analysis of the 10 counties, which is vastly different from the same in the other 6 key states.

New Hampshire - "Live Free or Die" - is a tough nut to crack and this is my pessimistic outlook on a state, when paired with Nevada, makes up for 10 electoral votes that may fall elsewhere.

Thanks for reading!

https://skeshel.substack.com/p/my-2024-new-hampshire-10-county-trend

HMS Prince of Wales Planned to Sail This Weekend for Exercise Strike Warrior with 809 Naval Air Squadron F-35Bs

Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales is due to depart HMNB Portsmouth this weekend for Exercise Strike Warrior, hosting F-35Bs from 809 Naval Air Squadron and 617 Squadron. This will be the first time that 809 NAS F-35s operate from an aircraft carrier.

Story: https://theaviationist.com/2024/09/26/exercise-strike-warrior/

No show tonight but here is the Wednesday night show 🍂☕️: "Soros Radio Network, War Hawks Prep for Losses, and Open Lines" 9/25/24
https://on.soundcloud.com/KpYb8ePHJ3MAPrtq7

Denver — A former Cherry Creek school district employee is suing after allegedly being fired for expressing patriotic views during compulsory DEI training. DEI ideology claims that the U.S. is a wicked, white supremacist nation. Read: https://thepostmillennial.com/colorado-dean-of-students-fired-after-saying-usa-is-the-greatest-country-in-the-world-during-mandatory-dei-training-lawsuit?utm_campaign=64470

This is how evil & disgusting the Left is.

I will devote the entirety of the rest of my life to destroying them & their Communist ideology.

https://t.co/qFsc5KN3X3

Full thread here:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1839341409582846196.html?utm_campaign=topunroll

NOW - Trump meets Ukraine's Zelensky in New York.

@disclosetv

Lackawanna County, PA

Trump is on pace by a six-cycle voter registration trend to flip Lackawanna County, PA - a huge sign he has deep enough working class traction to threaten MN and deeply cut margins in the blue wall states.

Final margin is always well to the right of the Dem voter registration, which currently sits at 28,037. Trump averages 37,067 right of it, and even if the fortification of PA's elections result in the 2020 equation, Trump would win by over 1,000 votes.

The standard trending suggests a Trump win of +4 to +8 is within reach, especially with no "Scranton Joe" on the ticket.

Last won by a GOP nominee in 1984, 1972, and 1956 in the post-WW2 era. Check out those national results.

Some of my analysis is going to be running in the NYT soon.

I did the interview because I want some modicum of FACT in the mainstream media bloodstream to counter polling.

Most of you guys probably understand.

Tik tock.

JUST IN - UK Government: "British nationals in Lebanon should leave now. You should take the next available flight."

https://x.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1839731478340436471

@disclosetv

Excellent!