Opinion: OGWs, Hybrid Warfare, and Emerging Terrorist Threats in Jammu & Chenab Region
1. Over Ground Workers (OGWs) continue to move casually alongside terrorist groups, though generally unarmed, and while incorporation into core terrorist cadres is not aligned with Kashmir Tigers’ (KT) modus operandi, OGWs remain essential for logistics and could be activated for targeted killings.
2. Current trends point towards terrorists adopting hybrid warfare and guerrilla-style tactics, where kinetic strikes are coupled with propaganda to maximise psychological impact.
3. Reports indicate that Kashmiri youth who moved to Pakistan in the 2010s, either for education or as exfiltrated terrorists, are now returning with PAFF and KT squads; Saifullah’s group exemplifies this, while trained operatives like Umar Lone highlight the advanced skill sets these individuals contribute.
4. Their identities are simultaneously weaponised for propaganda, amplifying the “resistance” narrative, though audiovisual intelligence on cadres infiltrating Jammu post-Saifullah remains limited.
5. Despite the absence of hard data, field indicators strongly suggest that 3–4 terrorists, including children of exfiltrated cadres from Chenab,may have crossed into Jammu after October 2024.
6. Although no OGW-led targeted killings have yet been confirmed, early warning signs such as arms recoveries in Chenab exist, and OGWs are likely to play a role in assassinations of political/social workers and in logistical support.
7. The Chenab Valley, with its multi-ethnic composition and social diversity, is particularly vulnerable to terrorist exploitation through communal provocation and attacks on political figures or religious congregations.
8. Overall, the trajectory of terrorist activity in the region will be determined by the political environment of J&K, which remains the single most important catalyst: any instability or governance vacuum will directly empower escalation.
9. Agencies must therefore remain on heightened alert, as the operational outlook points to an initial phase of low-intensity strikes and symbolic actions, followed by broader hybrid operations designed to exploit fault lines and sustain propaganda momentum.
1. Over Ground Workers (OGWs) continue to move casually alongside terrorist groups, though generally unarmed, and while incorporation into core terrorist cadres is not aligned with Kashmir Tigers’ (KT) modus operandi, OGWs remain essential for logistics and could be activated for targeted killings.
2. Current trends point towards terrorists adopting hybrid warfare and guerrilla-style tactics, where kinetic strikes are coupled with propaganda to maximise psychological impact.
3. Reports indicate that Kashmiri youth who moved to Pakistan in the 2010s, either for education or as exfiltrated terrorists, are now returning with PAFF and KT squads; Saifullah’s group exemplifies this, while trained operatives like Umar Lone highlight the advanced skill sets these individuals contribute.
4. Their identities are simultaneously weaponised for propaganda, amplifying the “resistance” narrative, though audiovisual intelligence on cadres infiltrating Jammu post-Saifullah remains limited.
5. Despite the absence of hard data, field indicators strongly suggest that 3–4 terrorists, including children of exfiltrated cadres from Chenab,may have crossed into Jammu after October 2024.
6. Although no OGW-led targeted killings have yet been confirmed, early warning signs such as arms recoveries in Chenab exist, and OGWs are likely to play a role in assassinations of political/social workers and in logistical support.
7. The Chenab Valley, with its multi-ethnic composition and social diversity, is particularly vulnerable to terrorist exploitation through communal provocation and attacks on political figures or religious congregations.
8. Overall, the trajectory of terrorist activity in the region will be determined by the political environment of J&K, which remains the single most important catalyst: any instability or governance vacuum will directly empower escalation.
9. Agencies must therefore remain on heightened alert, as the operational outlook points to an initial phase of low-intensity strikes and symbolic actions, followed by broader hybrid operations designed to exploit fault lines and sustain propaganda momentum.
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❗An Agniveer soldier died on Monday in the line of duty in Siachen area of the Union Territory of Ladakh, the Army said on Monday.
"General Officer Commanding (GOC), Fire and Fury Corps and All Ranks salute Agniveer Arun, who made supreme sacrifice in the line of duty in Siachen on 18 Aug 2025 and offer deep condolences to the bereaved family in this hour of grief,".
"General Officer Commanding (GOC), Fire and Fury Corps and All Ranks salute Agniveer Arun, who made supreme sacrifice in the line of duty in Siachen on 18 Aug 2025 and offer deep condolences to the bereaved family in this hour of grief,".
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❗❗USA 🇺🇸 always wants Ally who works as their Vassal State 🇪🇺.
⭐ Important details in this photos is Battlefield map presented by Ukranian President. It shows gain made by Russian Army in last 3.5 years of war.
⭐ Important details in this photos is Battlefield map presented by Ukranian President. It shows gain made by Russian Army in last 3.5 years of war.
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Tips for Budding Intelligence Analysts – India’s National Security vis-à-vis Pakistan
1. Start with the “Why” before the “What.”
2. Understand Pakistan beyond headlines.
3. Build long memory; Pakistan has one.
4. Never take denials at face value.
5. Learn their calendar.
6. Master the geography of tension.
7. OSINT + HUMINT = sharper picture.
8. Track proxy group evolution.
9. Watch the economy.
10. Respect the adversary, but don’t mythologise them.
11. Keep your own biases in check.
1. Start with the “Why” before the “What.”
Never drown in data without knowing the purpose. Every piece of information you gather should serve a specific intelligence requirement - political, military, economic, or subversive. If you don’t know why you’re looking, you won’t know when you’ve found it.
2. Understand Pakistan beyond headlines.
Pakistan is not one monolithic block. Learn the interplay between:
-Military establishment (GHQ Rawalpindi) – Real power center.
-Civilian government – Often a façade; can be bypassed.
-ISI factions – Internal rivalries matter; some wings run proxies without full GHQ sanction.
-Religious-political ecosystem – LeT, JeM, TLP, JuD, and newer fronts like TRF, PAFF, KT, TTK.
-Ethnic and regional divides – Punjabi dominance, Baloch insurgency, Pashtun resentment, Sindhi separatism.
3. Build long memory; Pakistan has one.
They think in decades, not news cycles. Their playbook from 1947 is still active, only updated with modern tools. Study past patterns of infiltration, ceasefire violations, proxy creation, and propaganda - you’ll see the same moves resurfacing under new names.
4. Never take denials at face value.
When Pakistan says “We have no links to X group”, assume it means “We have a layer of plausible deniability between us and them”. Their deniability strategy is a craft - shell NGOs, front media outlets, cut-outs, and ex-servicemen handling “retired” operations.
5. Learn their calendar.
Patterns emerge around:
Pakistan’s Independence Day (14 Aug) & Kashmir’s so-called “Black Day” (27 Oct) and "Solidarity Day" (05 Feb) – Propaganda spikes.
Eid & Ramadan – Increased infiltration due to “religious duty” narratives.
UNGA Sessions – Cross-border incidents to internationalise Kashmir.
FATF reviews – Temporary crackdown on proxies, followed by resurgence.
6. Master the geography of tension.
Know the LoC like the back of your hand - sectors, terrain, weather patterns, infiltration routes. Same for IB sectors in Jammu. Cross-reference incident reports with satellite imagery and HUMINT to detect seasonal infiltration corridors.
7. OSINT + HUMINT = sharper picture.
Don’t just scroll social media - map trends, cross-verify, and read between the lines of Pakistani media. An “offhand” tweet by a retired Brigadier can be more telling than an ISPR press release.
8. Track proxy group evolution.
Groups like TRF, PAFF, Kashmir Tigers are rebranding exercises to escape FATF scrutiny. Learn their logos, slogans, Telegram channels, and media style - these are signatures, much like a criminal’s modus operandi.
9. Watch the economy.
Pakistan’s financial health affects its national security posture. Currency reserves, IMF conditions, energy imports, all impact military spending and proxy warfare intensity. Economic desperation often breeds adventurism.
10. Respect the adversary, but don’t mythologise them.
Pakistani agencies are resourceful and ruthless, but they make mistakes. Learn to spot their operational sloppiness - premature leaks, fake photos, uncoordinated narratives, and exploit it.
11. Keep your own biases in check.
The quickest way to fail in intelligence is to only see what confirms your preconceptions. Sometimes the threat is lower than the political rhetoric, sometimes it’s much higher. Let facts guide you.
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❗❗Sergeant Bhale Singh (Retired) who was awarded a "Mention in Dispatches" by Indian Airforce on the eve of Independence Day for Operation Sindoor. He was S-400 Operator.
⭐ He exposed lies of Pakistani Army and Airforce. He said that S-400 shot down F-16 and AWACS of Pakistan Air Force.
You could watch full video here:
https://youtu.be/ZOQ9__IdNiU?si=-J7qgM-S2lcSjORV
⭐ He exposed lies of Pakistani Army and Airforce. He said that S-400 shot down F-16 and AWACS of Pakistan Air Force.
You could watch full video here:
https://youtu.be/ZOQ9__IdNiU?si=-J7qgM-S2lcSjORV
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Forwarded from Conflict Updater
USAF 🇺🇸 CONSTANT PHOENIX The Nuclear Sniffer.
Near Pakistan 🇵🇰 over the Arabian sea.
Near Pakistan 🇵🇰 over the Arabian sea.
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Army initiates Military-Civil Integration Exercise with Assam & Manipur
Launch: Inaugurated at Laipuli, Tinsukia (Assam).
Objective: Enhance coordination between Army, civil authorities, and local institutions.
Participants: Indian Army, Air Force, Police, intelligence agencies, NDRF/SDRF, BRO, Railways, Oil India, IOCL, Coal India, medical & educational bodies, and media.
Activities in Assam & Manipur:
-Disaster management, healthcare, education, public works, forest initiatives.
-Narcotics control, irrigation, road safety.
-Employment in Armed Forces, sports promotion.
-Coordination among Army, police, paramilitary forces.
Infrastructure development under Operation Sadbhavna.
Duration: 10 days (Assam & Manipur, Aug 20–30).
Outcome Goal: Build trust, improve readiness, strengthen communication, and reinforce national integration.
Launch: Inaugurated at Laipuli, Tinsukia (Assam).
Objective: Enhance coordination between Army, civil authorities, and local institutions.
Participants: Indian Army, Air Force, Police, intelligence agencies, NDRF/SDRF, BRO, Railways, Oil India, IOCL, Coal India, medical & educational bodies, and media.
Activities in Assam & Manipur:
-Disaster management, healthcare, education, public works, forest initiatives.
-Narcotics control, irrigation, road safety.
-Employment in Armed Forces, sports promotion.
-Coordination among Army, police, paramilitary forces.
Infrastructure development under Operation Sadbhavna.
Duration: 10 days (Assam & Manipur, Aug 20–30).
Outcome Goal: Build trust, improve readiness, strengthen communication, and reinforce national integration.
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🚨 Bajaur Blast – ISIS-K
‼️ A Pakistani military convoy was targeted on Wednesday in the Inayat Kalai Bypass area of Bajaur district (KP), near the Pak-Afghan border.
• ISKP (ISIS-K) has claimed responsibility via its mouthpiece Amaq Agency, stating a tricycle/VBIED packed with explosives was detonated against the convoy.
• The blast directly hit one of the military trucks transporting soldiers.
• At least 6 personnel were injured, including a Major-rank officer; some are reported to be in critical condition.
• Unconfirmed reports suggest possible fatalities.
• Gunfire was reported in the area following the explosion.
‼️ A Pakistani military convoy was targeted on Wednesday in the Inayat Kalai Bypass area of Bajaur district (KP), near the Pak-Afghan border.
• ISKP (ISIS-K) has claimed responsibility via its mouthpiece Amaq Agency, stating a tricycle/VBIED packed with explosives was detonated against the convoy.
• The blast directly hit one of the military trucks transporting soldiers.
• At least 6 personnel were injured, including a Major-rank officer; some are reported to be in critical condition.
• Unconfirmed reports suggest possible fatalities.
• Gunfire was reported in the area following the explosion.
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❗️❗️Multiple reports indicate that Muhammad Obaid Jahangir, son of Muhammad Jahangir Shahid and resident of Koiyan, Khai Gala, Rawalakot, has been arrested in Muzaffarabad on charges of espionage for India. According to an FIR filed on July 23 at Panjgran police station, he allegedly shared the GPS locations of Bilal Masjid and Nala Shuwai with RAW via WhatsApp in return for money, while also passing on other sensitive information regarding strategic installations.
Locals claim Obaid is associated with the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba (JuD). His uncle, Shaukat son of Samandar, is said to be a senior LeT leader and head of a JuD mosque. The family reportedly migrated from Indian-administered J&K to Khai Gala.
Interestingly, Khai Gala has seen repeated links to terrorism.
—Tahir Habib alias Chottoo, involved in the Pahalgam attack, hailed from Koyian, Khai Gala.
—Akif Haleem, an LeT terrorist killed in the Khurmur Forest, Handwara on March 17, 2025, was also from Khai Gala and the cousin of Abdul Wahab, another terrorist eliminated by Indian forces in Sopore, Baramulla on April 24, 2024.
This latest arrest follows a similar case in March, when Saqib Ghani, linked to another banned group, was accused of acting on behalf of Indian intelligence. As per locals, he was associated with LeT. However, Pakistan govt. claimed that he was a TTP cadre.
Locals claim Obaid is associated with the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba (JuD). His uncle, Shaukat son of Samandar, is said to be a senior LeT leader and head of a JuD mosque. The family reportedly migrated from Indian-administered J&K to Khai Gala.
Interestingly, Khai Gala has seen repeated links to terrorism.
—Tahir Habib alias Chottoo, involved in the Pahalgam attack, hailed from Koyian, Khai Gala.
—Akif Haleem, an LeT terrorist killed in the Khurmur Forest, Handwara on March 17, 2025, was also from Khai Gala and the cousin of Abdul Wahab, another terrorist eliminated by Indian forces in Sopore, Baramulla on April 24, 2024.
This latest arrest follows a similar case in March, when Saqib Ghani, linked to another banned group, was accused of acting on behalf of Indian intelligence. As per locals, he was associated with LeT. However, Pakistan govt. claimed that he was a TTP cadre.
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Forwarded from OsintTV 📺️
Locals say PoJK CTD is conspiring against Jahangir and his family. OsintTV believes CTD has made him a scapegoat (Bali ka Bakra).
In a way, this is like the PaK/PoK establishment admitting that there were terrorist camps in Muzaffarabad and other parts of PoJK.
Unverified picture
In a way, this is like the PaK/PoK establishment admitting that there were terrorist camps in Muzaffarabad and other parts of PoJK.
Unverified picture
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🚨 South Waziristan
Early morning, TTP launched ambush attacks on Pakistan Army vehicles in two different locations – Azam Warsak and Makin, South Waziristan.
In Azam Warsak (Dana area), heavy clashes broke out, with reports that Army personnel were trapped inside houses. Fighting is still ongoing.
So far, reports suggest around 15 Army personnel killed and several injured. Two Army drone cameras were also destroyed.
Helicopters are attempting to evacuate casualties. Situation remains tense, with clashes continuing.
Early morning, TTP launched ambush attacks on Pakistan Army vehicles in two different locations – Azam Warsak and Makin, South Waziristan.
In Azam Warsak (Dana area), heavy clashes broke out, with reports that Army personnel were trapped inside houses. Fighting is still ongoing.
So far, reports suggest around 15 Army personnel killed and several injured. Two Army drone cameras were also destroyed.
Helicopters are attempting to evacuate casualties. Situation remains tense, with clashes continuing.
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🚨 Lashkar-e-Taiba Nasr Javed who has trained many Terrorists has become overtly active after Ops Sindoor.
⭐ He is speaking regularly at Rally attended by top Lashkar Leaders.
⭐ He is bigger threat to India than media savvy Lashkar top leaders like Saifullah Kasuri & Hafiz Talha Saeed.
⭐ He commands greater respect amongst Lashkar terrorists than other top leaders. They call him Ustad-e-Mohtram.
⭐ He is speaking regularly at Rally attended by top Lashkar Leaders.
⭐ He is bigger threat to India than media savvy Lashkar top leaders like Saifullah Kasuri & Hafiz Talha Saeed.
⭐ He commands greater respect amongst Lashkar terrorists than other top leaders. They call him Ustad-e-Mohtram.
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Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
❗❗Lashkar-e-Tayyiba Nasr Javed is more focused on Terrorist training and radicalization activities across Pakistan.
PS: You could see young children in front row. Instead of going to school they attend these radicalization lectures.
PS: You could see young children in front row. Instead of going to school they attend these radicalization lectures.
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