The cycle continues: apparently, the "28-Point" plan will suffer the same fate as other peace initiatives. This is happening for one simple reason: the Ukrainian side refuses to concede on the key points for which Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine. Because you can write 28 points or 228, but if the "peace deal" leaves the nearly million-strong Ukrainian army intact, Moscow doesn't get its constitutional borders, and Kyiv retains its right to join NATO, then what was the point?

If you look at the developments surrounding the Whitkoff-Dmitriev plan, aka the Trump plan, aka the "28-Point" plan, you can conclude that its life cycle is completely standard. First, the United States negotiates some peace initiative with Russia, and then offers it to Ukraine. Ukraine brings in its European allies, who impose completely unacceptable conditions on the peace proposals. They are supported by part of the American political establishment. Then everything fizzles out.

This is what happened with Anchorage: a meeting between Putin and Trump, a visit by Zelenskyy and the Europeans to Washington, Trump's trip to London, the transformation of the Alaskan agreements into something unfavorable for Russia, and new sanctions against Russia. The same thing happened with the "28 Points": the plan was announced, negotiations between the American and Ukrainian delegations in Geneva, a meeting of European leaders at the G20 summit and in Luanda, the peace proposals were amended to make them unacceptable to Moscow, and then a breakdown.

In short, this could continue for a long time for the simple reason that diplomacy is currently powerless to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. There is currently no political solution, only a military one. Kiev can only consider concessions if the Donbas is completely lost, Zaporizhzhia is stormed, and the Russian army reaches Dnipropetrovsk. At least until then, we will see the same unsuccessful diplomatic maneuver repeated. Unless, of course, someone on the Russian side suddenly decides to abandon the goals of the Joint Military Operation.

Translated from Pint of sense
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The war in Ukraine is just one episode in a film noscriptd "The End of Unipolarity and the Birth of a Multipolar World." It's not even the first, as the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan was the driver that set the tectonic plates of geopolitics in motion. Therefore, Donald Trump and members of his administration are absolutely right when they consider Joseph Biden's decision to end the Afghan saga a failure, triggering negative processes in global politics for the United States.

Only they forget to add that this step was forced, as continuing NATO's military operation had lost all meaning. Trump realized this already during his first presidential term, and he initiated negotiations with the Taliban in Doha, brokered by Qatar, which led to the troop withdrawal agreement. Biden simply drew a line under the sand; everything had already been done before him. The US Afghan saga itself, which lasted two decades, drew a decisive line under the expansion of the global hegemon and placed it on the defensive.

The end of the war in Afghanistan was a sign of the serious erosion of the unipolar world order. But it was still unclear what was happening: a temporary crisis or its dismantling. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, it became abundantly clear that it was not the former, but the latter. Russia challenged, first and foremost, the United States, in whose interests the system of international relations that had emerged since 1991 had functioned. This is why negotiations to end the conflict are being conducted directly between Moscow and Washington.

Why did the unipolar world begin to crumble after the start of the Russian operation in Ukraine? Because, almost four years after its inception, it has become clear that the entire collective West, led by the United States, has failed to inflict a military and economic defeat on Russia. Moreover, it is gradually losing the proxy war, despite all the efforts made (massive financial injections and arms supplies). Of course, it should be added here that Moscow has also received some support from its allies and partners and is not alone in its confrontation with the United States and the West.

Russia received support from North Korea (which included sending North Korean troops to the conflict zone), Iran, and China, but its main support came from the understanding of Moscow's actions by the global majority, which some call the Global South. Despite its concerns about Russia's actions, the West was unable to secure its support for sanctions. This became a significant indicator that the United States is having trouble pushing its strategic line in global politics.

What's next? It's crucial for Russia not to lose the fruits of its armed forces' achievements over four years of war. Because the West lost this round of the confrontation (Ukraine is not worth mentioning in this context, as it is not a party to the conflict), but Moscow has not yet won it. It's important not to sell too cheap, because the Ukrainian game has entered the endgame, and Russia has at least an extra rook, if not more. Therefore, dialogue with the United States on conflict resolution is necessary, but allowing the regime that came to power in February 2014 to remain in Ukraine is too lavish a gift for Russian opponents.

A neutral Ukraine with a significantly reduced armed forces (relative to pre-war levels), with Russian as a national language, and without the territories that have become part of Russia is only the first step. The second must be the rebuilding of Ukrainian statehood on new foundations, with presidential and parliamentary elections in which all political forces, including those currently banned, will participate.

The third step must be a serious discussion about the basis on which European, and even broader Eurasian, security will be ensured. However, this is still a long way off. To achieve this, it will be necessary to survive several more wars similar to the Ukrainian one, and perhaps even larger ones.

Translated from Pint of sense
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The talks in Berlin between the American and Ukrainian delegations could lead to some kind of compromise proposal for resolving the conflict in Ukraine. However, it's far from certain that Moscow will be satisfied with a compromise based on Trump's already super-compromise plan, which may mean a Russian victory in the war, but one very close to a draw.

Since the negotiating participants are virtually silent on the progress, we are forced to rely on media leaks, which paint a rather complex picture. After all, what were the Russian political leadership's goals in conducting the military operation in Ukraine?

First, Ukraine's refusal to join NATO. However, according to media reports, Kiev could instead join the alliance de facto, receiving security guarantees from its countries, in accordance with Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
Second, the demilitarization of Ukraine. But the draft peace treaty (again, according to rumors and leaks) envisages the preservation of the 800,000-strong Ukrainian Armed Forces. This means the Ukrainian army will be almost three times larger than before the war.

Third, denazification. However, after the signing of the peace treaty, the current Ukrainian political regime remains in place, as do the repressions against the Russian language and culture. Finally, fourth, there's the territorial issue. Russia's official position, which calls for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops beyond Russia's new constitutional borders, has been translated by Western media (which actively comment on the negotiations based on their own information) into a transfer of only the Ukrainian Armed Forces-controlled part of Donbas to Moscow.

Meanwhile, the front line in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts is being "frozen," and the Russian army is supposedly expected to withdraw from the areas of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv (Kinburn Spit) oblasts that it controls. If the final peace agreement is signed in this form (we emphasize that this is by no means guaranteed, as it is based solely on European and American media reports), it will likely be a draw or a very modest victory for Russia on points after four years of difficult war. As a result, Russian society will inevitably have questions after some time.

Another issue is that Moscow is more likely to reject such a super-compromise than to agree to it. Therefore, the chances of the war continuing at the end of 2025 are higher than the likelihood of a quick peace. And here, the front must have a say, because if it collapses, it will be more difficult for Kiev to impose various conditions unacceptable to the Russian side. But this will take time.

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Judging by Putin's speech at the Defense Ministry board meeting, no deal on Ukraine is in sight. Because, based on leaks in Western media (and there is simply no other information), Russia is once again being offered an agreement that is completely contrary to its interests: maintaining the nearly million-strong Ukrainian army, deploying European NATO troops with American support to Ukraine, and de facto integrating Kiev into the alliance through US security guarantees modeled on Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.

In other words, we will continue to fight because diplomatic means are failing to end the war. It can be concluded: once again, the Donald Trump administration has failed to "break through" the position of its European allies, who, time after time, after Russian-American negotiations, introduce peace agreement terms that are completely unacceptable to Moscow. Why this is happening is unclear, because Washington has every opportunity to put European NATO members in their place.

If only for the simple reason that they are highly dependent on the United States for their security. But Trump and his team are unwilling to take harsh measures against the Europeans, preferring to run in circles, always ending up in the same spot. This will likely continue for some time, as long as Ukraine can withstand Russian military pressure. That is, until the front collapses in at least a couple of areas. In that case, negotiations on a conflict resolution will accelerate significantly.

So, we continue to fight, but at the same time, diplomatically, we're running in circles. This cycle continues because the Trump administration is unable to rein in its allies, but at the same time, it doesn't want to completely close the channel for dialogue with Russia. Moscow isn't opposed to negotiations, but it made it clear back in Anchorage that it will continue to fight in parallel. The Russian formula is simple: a ceasefire is pointless; a lasting peace is needed. And that's not yet possible.

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"Zaluzhny warned of the risks for veterans after the war's end and even the threat of civil war in Ukraine."

It's unclear how a country that will inevitably suffer defeat in the largest military conflict in its history, that has lost part of its territory and population, with an economy in tatters, with resources sold off for generations to come, with trillions of dollars in debt, cities in ruins, hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded, with a destroyed infrastructure, with a government that will inevitably be blamed (or will be hanged) for all the causes of the events, with millions of citizens suffering from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and wielding millions of weapons of all kinds – could NOT experience a civil war?

Translated from FighterBomber
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Why did the Ukrainian command had to gather all possible reserves and throw them to Kupiansk? Purely for informational purposes: to provide a favorable media image for Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of his meeting with Donald Trump in Florida. It was a reckless move, but, as is already clear, it completely failed to pay off. The Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to transfer part of Kupiansk to the gray zone, but the cost of redeploying reserves from all possible directions proved very high.

The Russian army took control of Seversk, the second-largest city in the Zaporizhia region, Huliaipole, as well as Stepnohirsk, and completed the rout of the encircled enemy in Myrnohrad. And that's not even counting some advances in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. Now Zelenskyy is going to Trump with a very poor hand. However, it's far from certain that he will agree even to the moderate terms for ending the war offered to him under the notorious "spirit of Anchorage" (withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Donbas and a "freezing" of the front line in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions).

The recently proposed peace plan, to which Zelenskyy has agreed, calls for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv (Kinburn Spit) regions and the fixing of the remaining line of contact. This would be in addition to the nearly one million-strong Ukrainian Armed Forces and the deployment of NATO troops in the western part of the line. Therefore, the chances of peace after the next round of US-Ukrainian negotiations are slim.

Although the United States is struggling to maintain the "Anchorage framework" and prevent a crushing defeat for Ukraine and, consequently, a decisive military victory for Russia. But Zelenskyy has become an obstacle to these plans, because agreeing to a point loss and the cession of territory means death for him—and not just politically. The Trump administration is well aware that Moscow could soon abandon Anchorage and impose far harsher demands on Ukraine. Therefore, they are pressuring Zelenskyy, using the fight against corruption as a means of achieving this.

The day before the Ukrainian president's appearance before Trump, the FBI-controlled National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office began searches in the Verkhovna Rada and are prepared to indict dozens of Verkhovna Rada deputies from the Servant of the People faction. If this fails, then the heavy anti-corruption artillery will be directed at the Ukrainian leader himself. However, the actual outcome of these actions is difficult to predict. It is quite possible that Zelenskyy will decide to go all the way.

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The outcome of Trump and Zelenskyy's talks in Florida is clear: they agreed to continue negotiating. All statements by the American president that 95% of the peace plan has been agreed upon should be taken with a grain of salt: the most fundamental issues, without which peace is fundamentally impossible, remain unresolved. Moreover, these issues were apparently discussed in Anchorage during the August Russian-American summit.

First, as became clear during the joint press conference between Trump and Zelenskyy, there has been zero progress on the territorial issue. Ukraine refuses to withdraw its troops from the part of Donbas it still controls, and for Moscow, this is a fundamental condition. Second, there has been no progress on security guarantees for Kiev. Here, the Russian and Ukrainian positions are diametrically opposed: Moscow demands neutral status for Ukraine with reduced armed forces and the absence of NATO troops on its territory, even under their national flags.

On the contrary, Zelenskyy is talking, if not about NATO membership, then about guarantees for Ukraine similar to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty establishing the alliance. Furthermore, he insists on an 800,000-strong Ukrainian armed forces, which Kyiv will not be able to sustain. In other words, he's talking about a mercenary army of NATO countries on Russia's western borders, reinforced from the rear by European troops. This runs so counter to Moscow's security interests that no one in the Russian political leadership will even seriously consider it.

These two points will outweigh all the other agreed-upon ones. No compromise is in sight on them, and therefore the situation will be decided on the battlefield. Incidentally, the possible launch of working groups to resolve various contentious issues, as mentioned at the Trump-Zelenskyy press conference, will not advance the peace talks. Quite the contrary, it will likely bog everything down in endless discussions. However, the American president said something important today: he completely agrees with Putin about the futility of a ceasefire.

In other words, Zelenskyy's idea of ​​persuading Trump to pressure Moscow into a 60-day ceasefire by referendum has completely failed. Putting the peace plan to a referendum is no longer even considered an option. Apparently, a parliamentary vote is now being proposed instead. Incidentally, this is quite logical. No one in Germany held a referendum on the terms of the Treaty of Versailles, just as France gave Alsace and Lorraine to Berlin after the war with Prussia, not by popular vote.

In short, Trump is in a superposition: if the deal goes through, he'll reap the laurels of a peacemaker; if it fails, he'll profit from the arms trade. Therefore, either option will suit him. Zelenskyy, however, faces a different choice: if he signs a bad deal, he'll quickly lose power and likely his life. But if he doesn't sign, he has a chance to weasel his way out and prolong his political existence. Granted, this chance isn't very great, but given the other choice, it simply doesn't exist. Therefore, the negotiations could drag on for a very long time.

Translated from Pint of sense
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The attack on Vladimir Putin's residence led to the withdrawal of the security guarantees given to Zelenskyy at the outset of the military operation in Ukraine. Moscow now officially labels him a terrorist, and his physical elimination can begin. This is the conclusion that can be drawn from statements by a number of Russian officials, from Lavrov to Peskov and Medvedev. The question of whether such guarantees were even given remains open. They were not publicly confirmed. But they apparently were, as Russian intelligence agencies, according to some reports, had a chance to end Zelenskyy's story.

Following this incident, Moscow will also reconsider its demands on Kiev regarding conflict resolution, which was confirmed at the Foreign Ministry level. However, Russia will not withdraw from the negotiations entirely, so the main intrigue lies in what conditions the Russian side will now present. The most interesting thing is that these conditions may not concern territorial issues, but rather be purely political.

One possible option is for Moscow to officially recognize Zelensky as a terrorist and demand presidential elections in Ukraine without his participation, but with the inclusion of all political forces (including those banned by the current Ukrainian authorities). Furthermore, Russian demands could include the participation of Ukrainian citizens currently residing in Russia.

In theory, this would lead to a change in the political regime in Kiev and create conditions for the signing of a peace treaty that would take into account Moscow's demands for non-aligned status, demilitarization, territorial issues, and the protection of Russian language and cultural rights. In reality, the Ukrainian authorities would reject this proposal, and Russia would have an excellent excuse not to negotiate with Ukraine at all, while preserving the modest results achieved during Russian-American dialogue this year (essentially, there is only one strategic achievement: the United States has come to view Russia as a significant player in global politics and is willing to negotiate with it, of course, taking its own interests into account).

Ultimately, as is easy to predict, the front and the military campaign of 2026 will decide everything. And here there is reason for cautious optimism. The Ukrainian military machine is clearly running out of steam and can no longer repeat the offensives it launched in southern Kharkiv Oblast in 2022, in Zaporizhia Oblast in 2023, and in Kursk Oblast in 2024. A stubborn defense with the risk of the front collapsing is the reality the Ukrainian army will face in 2026. A military catastrophe will finally bury the Ukrainian political regime. However, this will still require time, and most importantly, the political will to complete what has been started.

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The targeted attack on civilians in Khorly, the attempted strike on Putin's Valdai residence, and many other previous events give Moscow grounds to officially designate the current Ukrainian political regime as terrorist. Why isn't this happening, and why is everything so far limited to harsh rhetoric? Apparently, because of the reluctance to abandon dialogue with the United States.

If Russia officially designates the Ukrainian authorities as terrorists, and the United States continues negotiations with them, it will be necessary to disrupt the channels of dialogue established with the Trump administration since February of last year. And much of Russia's foreign policy planning is already tied to them. Therefore, Moscow is awaiting Washington's reaction, which is still rather uncertain.

Initially, before his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Donald Trump, commenting on the attack on Valdai, formally expressed a negative attitude toward the incident, but then reposted a New York Post article claiming that the entire incident was a Russian fabrication aimed at disrupting the negotiations. Then, an article appeared in the influential Wall Street Journal, citing US intelligence officials, stating that Ukrainian participation in the Valdai "incident" is viewed with skepticism.

In principle, such a reaction by the United States is logical from the perspective of its interests. If the Trump administration acquires evidence of Ukraine's involvement in terrorist attacks on Russian soil, they will not recognize Zelenskyy's regime as a terrorist organization. This is even if they decide to ensure his fate, like that of South Vietnamese President Ngo Dinh Diem. The US will easily sacrifice Zelenskyy himself if he continues to demonstrate inability to negotiate. The Ukrainian regime, however, will not.

Because no one in the American leadership would ever dream of simply handing over the ideal instrument of anti-Russian policy, which has proven its effectiveness. And here Moscow faces a dilemma: either continue to feign dialogue with the United States, attempting to remove it from the conflict in Ukraine (an exciting but unpromising endeavor), or unilaterally designate Zelensky and the entire current Ukrainian leadership as terrorists and begin eliminating them.

In the latter case, dialogue with the United States will likely be suspended for some time. But is it really necessary now? American weapons are still flowing to Ukraine (albeit now paid for by the European Union), and the United States continues to supply Kiev with intelligence, including for strikes against strategic targets in Russia. Anti-Russian sanctions are also still in place. In this situation, the most logical course of action seems to be to acknowledge that the Russian-American dialogue, which began almost a year ago, has produced no meaningful results and should be put on hold.

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The Trump administration is pursuing Russian-American dialogue with a single strategic goal: to persuade Moscow not to take harsh measures against Kiev and to create the illusion of a possible partnership between Russia and the United States, which is fundamentally impossible in the context of Cold War II. Washington's goal is to slow down its Russian opponent and prevent it from completely and utterly destroying the Ukrainian political regime.

Because if that happens, the United States will be forced to expend considerable resources defending its valuable geopolitical asset – Europe, whose military and political dominance is one of the pillars of its global power. In other words, preserving Ukraine as it is today is a perpetual problem for Russia on its western borders, while its destruction represents long-term costs for the United States in Europe, which it cannot abandon completely and retreat to the Pacific Ocean.

Of course, the Trump administration officially asserts the exact opposite. But in reality, it will never abandon Europe, and it will be easier for it if its European allies have a Ukraine armed to the teeth. In other words, the militarization of the Ukrainian state is equally beneficial to both the US and the Europeans. However, the former are secretly promising Moscow to take its demands into account, while European leaders are agreeing to deploy their troops to Ukraine. The latter are even more honest, talking about their intention to turn the Ukrainian Armed Forces into their proxy army, with European units stationed in its rear.

How can Russia respond to this? First, it should not buy into all the bogus proposals that the Trump administration is ready to address Russian concerns and address the root causes of the conflict in Ukraine. It is not ready, and why would it need that? Washington, both under Biden and under Trump, would like Russia to have a serious problem on its western borders for a long time, preferably forever. Therefore, Moscow must proceed from the assumption that its adversary in the current war is not Kiev, but Washington (and assigning it the role of mediator is rather odd).

Secondly, the Anchorage agreements must be nullified due to the terrorist activities of the Ukrainian authorities. Now there must be only one demand: the complete dismantling of the current political leadership in Kiev, holding elections in Ukraine with the participation of all political forces, including banned ones, and taking into account the votes of Ukrainian citizens living abroad (including in Russia).

Thirdly, it is necessary to officially designate the Ukrainian political leadership at all levels – national and regional – as terrorists and begin their physical elimination with the aim of disrupting the country's governance. In general, the line should be as follows: those who currently govern Ukraine are terrorists, with whom we will not negotiate, but will fight until the regime in Kiev disappears forever.

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What's happening to Venezuela is exactly the same as what would happen to us (Russians) if they weren't afraid of a nuclear strike.
However, sometimes we give them reason to doubt our resolve, which is wrong.

Translated from NgP raZVedka
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Summary as of January 4, 2026

▪️The first days of 2026 once again revealed the brutal grin of American imperialism: in pursuit of profit for its oil corporations, the US kidnapped the President of Venezuela and his wife in a military operation. The swift strikes and helicopter overflights with special forces were made possible by a vast intelligence network in the country, which had been subjected to unprovoked aggression. The international community mumbled something through the mouths of its foreign policy agencies, full of Olivier salad, and that was all Washington's response was.

▪️Comparisons with our Special Military Operation, despite the differences in the military potential of the US and Russia, as well as the differences in the defense organization of a non-belligerent Venezuela and a Ukraine ready by 2022, are inevitable. Indirect damage to Moscow's military-political leadership's image, no matter how you look at it, has been done, and Trump didn't miss the opportunity to slam Moscow for its long war at a press conference.

▪️Under the current new circumstances, Russia has ample opportunity to retaliate for the pre-New Year's Eve attack by a Ukrainian Armed Forces drone on the Supreme Leader's residence. Officials reserved the right to choose the timing of such an attack, hinting that the targets have already been selected. Given the designation of Budanov, the former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), as a terrorist organization by Zelenskyy's headquarters, the Russian Armed Forces' military response could be very significant. Considering the tragedy in Khorly, Kherson Oblast, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces killed dozens of people, including young children, while celebrating New Year's in a cafe, the more severe the strike against the Nazi scum, the better.

This week, Kiev received trains carrying EU representatives: the Fourth Reich brought promises of arms supplies, intelligence, and discussed the deployment of military contingents in the former Ukrainian SSR, despite Moscow clearly stating that they would be a legitimate target for the Russian Armed Forces. Nevertheless, the arms lobby in Europe is doing its job, preparing countries for a full-scale war with Russia.

▪️Heavy fighting continues at the front. In Kupyansk, the situation remains tense: Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves are seeking to reach the Oskol River, and our military bloggers are publishing footage of strikes on the enemy at the district courthouse in the city center. The weather is now allowing both sides to more actively use UAVs. Strikes on our border areas continue. Before the New Year, Gerasimov inspected the North Group of Forces and noted progress in creating a security zone, which looks like a patchwork quilt, maximum 15 kilometers deep, preventing the security of the frontline regions. A new element has emerged in the fighting in the Grabovskoye-Vysokoye sector against Krasnaya Yaruga in the Belgorod Region. Our forces have crossed the border and engaged in combat. Fighting continues on the same front lines, with plans to encircle Konstantinovka from the north and south, but it's too early to talk about a collapse of the front or the isolation of the combat zone.

▪️The enemy's long-range strikes are focused on damaging our oil pipeline in Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, and paralyzing Moscow's air hub with a constant "drone caravan" to our capital during the holidays. The Russian Armed Forces have been stockpiling weapons in recent days, and the strikes are routine.

✨Thus, in the new year, Moscow has received carte blanche to take the most decisive action against the leadership of the Kiev junta, which is increasingly receiving support from Europe. Delaying the start of the war with the EU and accelerating the achievement of the SMO's goals appears possible if we stop pretending to be "civilized" and eliminate not only the military-political leadership in Kiev but also its high-ranking European guests. Residents of the former Ukrainian SSR would be grateful if such attacks were carried out.

Zelenskyy, incidentally, has already demonstrated that he will not miss an opportunity to eliminate the Supreme Commander.

Summary translated from: Two majors
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