The primary reason launchcoin will recover boils down to the novelty of products on their platform.

We have vibe coding platforms, no code website builders, no code game builders etc on Solana already.

What Solana and other eco’s don’t have is real world products with high amounts of users and revenue.

The biggest runners will be centred on this philosophy. Those with millions of users who put their token in front of an entirely new fanbase and capture a small % of them will be the biggest winners.

A good way to assess the froth of markets is comparing projects in the Launchcoin eco to standalone products on Solana.

For example if you’re seeing a vibe coding platform on Solana at 1 mil and a similar type of product on launchcoin is at 5 mil, you know there’s a big mismatch.

Eventually markets become efficient and this gap will be reduced. The larger the dispersion grows between fundamentals and price, the harder it will collapse and reset the ecosystem.

Projects like Dupe which can’t be compared to anything else due to novelty are the ones with the highest roof.

As the eco matures, the main comparisons and evaluations will be towards amount of users, volume, revenue, token utility and flashiness of the platform.

Launchcoin eco looking strong and potentially bottomed.

I haven’t size into anything and I’m not a fan of bidding eco’s at this level after the first recovery for a couple reasons.

Firstly if you didn’t get a pico bottom entry the R:R still feels too unclear and not worth top blasting here. You guys know I’m big on perfecting your entry and not forcing trades.

Secondly I don’t feel as I have a good read on the direction of majors atm.

The hardest thing to do is sit on your hands in times like these, especially when you’re seeing strong signs of recovery.

What I try to constantly remind myself is; there’s always another trade and it’s typically less than 24 hours away if you stay patient and online.

If you don’t have strong conviction in your intuition then sitting in stables is perfectly fine and puts you in a good position to capture new opportunities anyway.

Sometimes just sitting in stables also feels like a good mental reset for myself. Having several positions open which you’re checking every 5 minutes is like having to manage several relationships which becomes draining.

Stabling up allows you to reset your outlook on the market and opens the doors to new ideas as you’re more inclined to have a unbiased take on the markets, due to not being “married” to a thesis playing out.

Been health maxxing more the last 24 hours and will continue to do so today as I put my body through hell trading this week.

Will continue to research and I could change my mind over a 6 hour period if I form a convincing thesis, though not forcing anything and staying patient.

This felt like a bit of a ramble, hopefully you found it useful if you’re feeling a similar way.

Flipped my bias back to perma bull on Launchcoin now (230 mil).

$STARTUP -> 30 mil
$DUPE -> 25 mil
$FITCOIN -> 13 mil (thanks to ansem shill)

Launchcoin significantly lagged behind Dupe in the first leg up towards roughly 50 mil.

The current strength of coins is once again showing Launchcoin is lagging behind.

This has given me validation to start sizing into strong narratives.

One play I like that feels undervalued and overlooked is $TWEETDM (900k mcap)

They’re a twitter tool designed to help teams or influencers with large inbound traffic for their dms and outreaches.

Pros:

- Team is clearly crypto native and in the trenches. They’ve got 10/10 comms and well versed in handling any inbound questions and removing fud

- Large influencers/teams already using the tool before the token even launched (allianceDAO, mario nawful, threadguy, frank etc)

- Product has been around for over a year and was ranked #4 on product hunt at one stage with clear demand

- Team is trying to get in contact with the launchcoin team to get their input on the tokenomics flywheel which they’re looking to implement for payments of products asap

- Snipers were a big reason for the dump off launch so a lot of negative holders are now cleared out

- Fairly novel and something we haven’t seen yet

Cons:

- Product isn’t super flashy and catered for retail like Fitcoin

Overall the quality of comms and awareness for token utility by the team and demand for the product feels strong enough for this to be a leading token in the launchcoin eco.

If the KOLs/teams using the product or Pasternak even acknowledge this I think it can run a fair bit higher.

What if you could buy time?

Hinted $TIME at 200k.

Normally I don’t like sharing these type of plays as they’re pure gambles and I don’t want to ruin my reputation, although sometimes I see a narrative with memes that just gives me the tingles.

If you ever see me hint these type of plays they’re always 100% gambles so never risk more than you’re willing to lose.

I didn’t check bundles, wallets, deployer or any onchain tooling. Simply saw the narrative on twitter and thought it was really smart.

That’s the way memes should be.

Apparently this has been done many times before, sometimes the time is just right though.

If you buy there’s a high chance of failure. Zero or hero play.

These type of memes are too fun not to share and have the chance to run extremely hard.

Only time will tell.

$TIME is deflationary as we’re always running out of it.

I’ll hold this to 0 or 10+ mil.

If it rugs then I go down with the ship.

The hardest part about selling your time is you can never get it back.

Because this will only grow interest over time.

And what if this time is different?

If so, you should use your time wisely.

As tIme is the ultimate currency.

You get the idea now, I won’t waste your time anymore.

Time is ticking.

How bad do you want it szn.

Nobody cares how tired you are or how you missed your entry before it 10x’d. Stop complaining.

The bags under your eyes should serve as medallions that you’re willing to do whatever it takes to reach your goals.

I’d rather have a mental breakdown from pushing myself too hard than sitting there in 10 years time while AI and robotics render us obsolete thinking “what if I tried 30% harder?’.

Imo you’re much better being either fully locked in or dopamine detoxing.

Sitting in the middle and trying to trade part time won’t work when the environment moves at such a fast pace these days.

I would consider 8 hours a day part time, 12 full time, 16 psycho.

When money is falling from the sky like it has over the past week, why would you step foot outside other than for essential exercise and errands?

The gap to make it has been closing since 2021 and people still aren’t realizing it yet.

OpenAI just announced their new fully agentic cloud coding terminal called Codex.

It’s almost confirmed they recently acquired Windsurf and this new tool closely reflects that.

The OpenAI co-founder mentioned towards the end of the announcement that there will be a mini Cli local version of Codex you can run on your computer, but more importantly Codex’s primary model will be in cloud with it’s own computer.

To top it off he believes that the most successful companies in the future will be these two types of architecture merged together.

Other than the name, are you starting to connect the dots?

$CODEC might not make sense now but it will quite soon.

What happens when OpenAI releases their own fully autonomous cloud operator agent? It’s much closer than we think.

https://youtu.be/utujQfglbk8?si=B48bULTLIqLpf0vT

Jarvis, timestamp that bitch.

Round 2 incoming.

Time is a flat circle.

No matter what you do, you’ll never have enough of it.

We all need time, we all want time.

You can buy friends, influence, power, women, status, cars, houses but the only thing you can’t buy is time.

Heard Joe Biden is running out of time.

You can’t take your time to the grave.

Most of you respect me and my content for right curved tech research and abstract mental frameworks for approaching trading and life.

Which is why I called this channel Trissy’s Edge. Most of my writings can’t be replicated, coming from deep research or years of daily grinding.

I try to keep a more formal tone here as this industry has mostly become a joke. I could spam the n word and post brain rot content like everyone else, then I’d be like 99% of KOLs.

One thing I learned early on is that if you want to build a brand/following, your content needs a unique factor.

Sure, people have made it copying others and it’s not impossible. But if you want to stand out and be truly respected for your own style, find something nobody else is doing.

Whenever I post genuine content about refining your mindset or cover strong projects I don’t hold bags in, I always get tons of positive messages.

So few people take the time to create content that isn’t bull posting their own bags or spamming trash. I do occasionally shill a meme as memecoins can have considerable upside, and trades like Startup and Gork have outperformed majority of my right curve research plays.

The only reason I don’t write more about good projects is that when I’m dialled in trading, it’s extremely difficult to focus on anything else. To perform with the best in this space, you need ultra tunnel vision and be in a deep flow state.

Researching/writing on novel products and tech while staying in this trading flow state is near impossible, you’ll never perform at your best. That’s why you hardly see the top traders writing lengthy, well formulated content, even though they’re the most qualified to do so.

If you want to stand out, do something different.

People will respect you a lot more if you can speak positively about projects you have no bag bias in.

The reality of becoming a successful trader is an extremely depressing path.

Those of us shooting for the big leagues are probably locked in our bedrooms 12+ hours a day, neglecting friends, family, hobbies and healthy lifestyle habits.

Half of the battle of making it is not going insane and blowing yourself up out of boredom.

To even have a chance at reaching elite wealth, majority need to spend several years of day in day out grinding, 1000’s of failed trades and zero’ing yourself out multiple times in the process.

Which is why having a super disciplined lifestyle routine is so critical.

Considering the amount of hours I put into trading per day, there wouldn’t be many others with similar hours who would have the same level of training and health protocol as myself.

Even with everything I do in my day to day life to stay balanced, I still feel my body is in a constant decaying state while maximising my trading output.

Sitting there playing onchain slot machines while sometimes not leaving your chair for 12-16 hours a day is extremely damaging in every aspect.

If you aren’t hyper vigilant on the current state of your body both mentally and physically, you’ll become like a car running without oil, where it’s a matter of time before it blows up.

You know I’m a big proponent of doing whatever it takes to make it, although not at the expense of your health.

There’s nothing to glorify about turning your brain into mash potato to the point where you can’t even look at your computer for a month due to burn out. Trust me I’ve done it.

Don’t ignore the red flags when they pop up. I’m very fortunate to have spent many years training with professional athletes where majority of my discipline stems from.

Overtime your resilience to burn out grows but the same principles still apply, you can’t fight gravity and nobody is superman.

Play the long game as there’s always another trade.

Been a pretty slow few days onchain.

Nothings really stood out to me which is why I haven’t covered anything. I’ve still be online and watching everything as usual.

My switch to being bullish on Launchcoin was a little premature and I should have stuck to my guns about being patient. I didn’t buy anything other than $TWEETDM which I’m still holding for now and my $STARTUP moonbag, might rotate that though. I do like $RIPVC, haven’t bought any yet.

The one out performer has been $KNET which seems to be a large Chinese gaming company, doesn’t appeal enough to me to research further atm.

$TIME didn’t end up making it to the promise lands. Even though we didn’t make it to 10+ mil, we still managed to get a 17x from when I mentioned it which isn’t too bad. I’ve seen several main characters struggle to send memes to 5 mil and I only saw 1-2 other notable people mention Time, so the narrative was clearly good.

I round tripped a massive bag to give it the best shot at making it. I’ll never send something that low in mcap and rape the chart on multiple wallets, my reputation is far more important to me and I can make money trading.

Launchcoin eco has been vamped by two coins today:

$IBRL: Gavel is a new on-chain IDO/launchpad designed to beat sniper bots and ensure fair token launches. Its core feature is an Anti-Sniper Vault mechanism: all participants’ orders within each “epoch” (batch window) execute at the same average price, preventing bots from front-running or buying up supply instantly.

This was invested in by paradigm and hard shilled by Toly and Cobie also said it was cool. Based on what we’ve seen with launchpads I’m not sure if this has what it takes at first glance, could be wrong though.

$DIS: Is a decentralized, global AI “supercomputer”. You can access their models which are a bunch of libraries for chat, vision, speech etc via api’s or sdks. Can also monetise your hardware like gpu’s.

Similar to Gavel, nothing amazing stands out to me about this and not the type of play I like to bid, especially with the mcap so high. Hope they both do well for others sake.

These type of conditions are for scalping with small size and you need to be back in preservation mode.

One of the biggest mistakes I see with traders is once the heat has died down they still use similar sizing and aggression on trades when the backdrop isn’t in their favour. These are the conditions where you chop yourself up and hand back any of the gains you made in easy mode.

Identifying the froth and scaling back size when red flags pop up has been the single best characteristic I’ve added into my trading framework the last couple months. It’s saved a ton of money and kept me much closer to port ATH’s.

I’m still working with Codec in the background and think they have immense potential. Look at it from my perspective, you’ve seen I’m very good at trading onchain and working closely with a product on positioning and GTM takes me away from my trading flow state.

Codec would need to become very successful for it to be worth my time, so that’s the type of conviction I have in the product. Probably won’t be an overnight cook but patience will pay. Also some smart people/whales are beginning to catch wind of it.

BTC’s at ATH’s and only a matter of time before onchain revs up again. You need to be paying very close attention as the lights can switch back on any minute.

Pasternak fucked up badly today and pushed a project which ended up having 2 CA’s causing people to lose a ton of money.

This is now beginning to look awfully similar to ai16z’s first leg. Ai16z crashed 76% from 500 mil to 125 mil due to Shaw pushing multiple CA’s for the same projects like what we’re seeing now.

Imo Pasternak has one more chance which will be reflected in the 150 mil level and if he’s to fuck up again like he did today we’ll see that level and confidence break to 70-100 mil.

Pasternak seems more genuine than Shaw at this current stage and if it was a genuine technical error this mistake isn’t unrecoverable. The fact ai16z came back shows how forgivable this market if there’s demand for the product/infra.

As much as I’d like to crash out, this will probably be a local bottom for launchcoin. I crashed out near the ai16z bottom and it cost me a lot of money.

This is why you’ll typically see me giving heavily fudded projects the benefit of the doubt as it’s where majority of the money is lost/made if you aren’t rational.

If you’re bullish on eco projects still, this is where you bid.

I’d like to clarify my thoughts on $DIS after being red pilled by Zinc.

My first reaction was to fade this being high mcap, typically this allows for asymmetry and is how projects like $KTA become uponly.

Tech

- Decentralized AI inference platform offering rentable access to open source models (text, image, speech etc)

- 100K+ registered GPU providers and users, though hardware performance tiers vary

Economics

- Users run AI models via credits or soon to integrate $DIS token (on Solana); providers earn $DIS for compute

- Revenue is split between gpu providers and the protocol (similar to token based compute marketplaces)

Team/Funding

- Relative anon team and not much info, raised $2.3 mil in seed and did a open public sale at 15 mil

Competitors

- $DIS ($35 mil): 100k+ registered users, claims 100k+ GPUs, easy access for web ui, API and plug ins

- $RENDER (2.5 bil): No official count; mostly developers/artists in VFX and ML. Scale undisclosed, but partners with large GPU farms

- $IO ($160 mil): 80k+ developers/providers, claims 320k+ GPUs (7k live at anytime). Focused on raw GPU power for AI/ML; not model serving

Overall Thoughts

There is only 50% circulating supply from what I’ve been told. IO Net being the closest competitor I can see $DIS being fairly valued around 50% of their mcap (4x from here).

I don’t currently hold any although I’m happy to give clarity and speak positively on others bags if I believe I gave the wrong info.

If I were to take this trade I’d be looking for a entry between 28-35 mil and exiting around 110-140 mil.

The past month has felt like the single most exponential increase in my trading skills I’ve ever had.

Not purely due to the returns but from an overall perspective.

I’ve always been great at spotting trends early and catching bottoms of massive moves, more recently I’ve now dialled in my intuition to a point where it feels stronger than any form of data or technical indicator possible.

Considering I started full time trading in October 24’ (7 months ago) after primarily working in marketing style roles for the past 4-5 years, the growth has felt astonishing.

One thing is to work in this industry everyday, another is actually dealing with the emotions and mind fucks you get while gambling your net worth in do or die situations.

When I started trading in October I had next to nothing and about 1 months worth of living expenses due to some very unfortunate business circumstances. I also had done minimal trading since the NFT bull run of 21.

Everyone would have told me I was walking down deaths row and digging my own grave with the relative experience and capital I had.

Even though there should have been a 99% chance of failure, one trait I believe I hold stronger than nearly anyone else is faith in myself.

When my backs against the wall and I literally can’t fail, I’ve had a 100% success rate in life.

I’m not even sure if this is a rare trait you’re born with or a product of your environment growing up; my guess is a mixture of both.

Though however it’s formed, find what you believe to be the best method of improving your faith.

I know that if you took everything away from me tomorrow and left 1k to my name, I’d find some sort of way to dig myself out of a deep hole.

Having that underlying core belief is the single strongest foundation you can have.

Over the past month my trading and assessment of the markets has felt like it’s been up there with the best in the space, while having relatively short experience trading full time - simply due to this belief.

Also largely boils down to a pivoting point where I started giving my opinions publicly on new projects and market movements:

Give thesis > thesis plays out > confidence grows > loop > exponential improvement

I’ve said it multiple times before, but I don’t think there’s any faster growth trajectory as a trader than being publicly held to your opinions. If I’m writing my trades in front of an audience, I have to think of every possible variable to the finest degree. Will this trade look stupid in one week?

It’s one thing to write an idea in a gc with your homies, however if you want to really level up, you should publicly write theses as you can’t turn back on ideas once posted.

At this current rate, I genuinely feel in 3 months time I’ll be among the top in this industry.

The greatest part is, I’m only having more fun every day and waking up excited to constantly improve.

I’m fairly convicted $LAUNCHCOIN is going to be much higher in the near future.

The last few days I’ve been mostly offline due to IRL stuff and onchain hasn’t justified being online all day long.

Being offline has allowed me to cancel out the noise and small details which normally shakes your conviction and stops you from seeing the bigger picture.

Most are missing the forest for the trees and not realising how strong the narrative of real world products with revenue coming onchain is.

ICO era in 2017 was the originality of alt szn, people looked for innovative products which were based on tokenizing existing products with large users and volume.

Launchcoin is the first platform which has consistently brought these companies onchain for the first time in 8 years. That alone should be enough to spark your imagination.

There’s small bits of fud like fee’s being too high, snipers ruining launches and poor comms for new teams etc. These can be easily fixed and the narrative outweighs these issues by a long margin.

Taking a simple approach to these noisey situations and betting on narrative is the most asymmetric trade.

I’ll give a bold prediction and say we reach 500 mil within the next 20 days, purely what my intuition is telling me and a complete guess.

My highest conviction bag is $RIPVC (3.5 mil mcap).

Reason being is, if Launchcoin does take off the platform will genuinely kill a lot of VC deal flow and has perfect memetics.

More importantly, it’s launched by Pasternak himself and he changed the metadata, essentially confirming he’s backing the coin + liking shills on twitter.

RIPVC feels very PvE, betting on the strongest meme will have similar upside to fishing for the hottest launch without dealing with all the froth.

The question I ask myself is; where does the founders personal meme with strong memetics go if Launchcoin is 500 mil or 1 bil?

Remember this is a gamble, don’t go and throw 90% of your port into this just because I like it. Never put yourself in a position to be zero’d out.

A big reason the Launchcoin fud hasn’t affected my conviction is due to being majoritively a builder myself over the past 5 years.

Unless you’ve worked in large teams or tasted that hit of overnight success, it’s extremely easily to criticise when things go wrong.

People think because you raised X millions over a 7 day period means you can onboard 10 of the worlds best crypto software devs and fix all your problems, that’s not how it works.

The hiring and onboarding process alone is a full time job and requires heavily laid out strategy to tie the business and product roadmap together.

Business roadmaps sometimes need to be altered to cater for what’s actually possible with development in a given timeframe.

It’s not as simple as changing a few buttons inside the app and can often take weeks of iterating and front end development.

There’s a reason so little teams actually build working products, shits hard.

This isn’t a sympathy post for Pasternak, I’m describing what happens behind the scenes as there’s no playbook for being a 5 person team with a 2 mil mcap platform to suddenly 350 mil overnight with dozens of teams spamming you.

Pasternak would be very aware of all the issues and I’m sure he’d love to click his fingers and fix everything.

Yes he has a ton of money now but money only fixes money problems, it’s not a magic pill to building a better product.

Time is the greatest enemy to these issues, he now has the attention of the biggest players in the space and talent becomes much easier to attract.

At this stage, his only job is to not fuck up, everything else is already laid out in front of him. Easy said than done.

I won’t be online as much over the next week, I’m still watching the eco very carefully though.