If you’re a longer term believer in crypto’s success and the app thesis. Seeing small nuances like avici decoupling from metadaos mcap is extremely significant. For as long as crypto’s existed, it’s always been the infra play. Teams are still trying to spin up useless chains and run the monad playbook to extract mid 9 figs. So when you have apps or products starting to reprice and decouple from their infra, it’s very early signs that our industry is evolving and the path forward for legitimate products is starting to look much brighter.

Ever since Trump coin, the door has been closing and doing so quite rapidly. The only reason the door will open again (alt szn) is if we see traders believe in the product and believe that there’s asymmetric upside to tokens as speculation increases on the fact that these companies are on par if not better than those in web2 which are valued significantly higher.

The premium will eventually close as more people catch on and I think we see a convergence of onchain/perp stocks, real products and revenue/equity flywheels. This will be super charged by the stablecoin thesis with the fed using it as a means of countering inflation. This isn’t going to happen overnight but it’s the northern star you should be monitoring quite closely because when it aligns, it could be one of the largest and most aggressive narratives we’ve seen in crypto’s lifetime.

Pokmeon and real world collectibles have been getting a small bid due to kabuto king. Once again, this narrative doesn’t interest me at all because at some point it’s just NFT’s 2.0 but on a micro scale and attention isn’t strong enough to last more than 2 days.

Not surprised but Monad was a massive let down. Haven’t seen anything exciting come from them yet and even their memes couldn’t break 10 mil which is pretty pathetic for a team that’s spent 4 years teasing TGE and waiting for the right moment to launch. With the amount of money they raised you would have thought they’d have at least something, goes to show you can’t buy creativity or innovation. Maybe this is apart of their master plan and I wouldn’t fully write it off, haven’t seen anything of interest yet though.

Where do I see markets tomorrow (majors & onchain)?

Unless something dramatically changes I still believe the ideas I’ve been echoing about 80-85k being the bottom is correct.

We’ve been “catalystless” the past month or so with overhangs like the MSTR premium. This past week and the PA I saw over the weekend feels like the first time we’ve gotten a glimpse at optimism with Vanguard crypto ETF, Microstrategy clearing fud by liquidating $1.3 bil in their stock to cover 2 years of the collateral loans I mentioned a couple posts ago, and most importantly Tether becoming the largest individual holder of Gold other than central banks.

The last point is very overlooked and under appreciated. While the tradfi guys are some of the most sophisticated and well processed analysts in markets overall, they’re still human and are subject to the same emotions as us.

I can have a 10 page thesis written out, understand the tech at every software layer and have direct communication with the founder to see their vision, except if you never have that “lightbulb” moment to realize “oh fuck this is the next big thing”, then your conviction will never been fully unlocked.

From the perspective of tradfi/old money. When you see an asset class that’s worth $3T and there’s a company that’s not even 10% of that becoming the largest individual holder of Gold in the world, I think that’s your “oh fuck” lightbulb moment.

Seeing headlines like this is going to accelerate their efforts in owning the pie and trigger animal spirits as they’re watching the underlying rails of crypto become the highest revenue:employee companies in history (alongside Hyperliquid).

On the shorter time scale I see us moving to 96k on BTC in anticipation for the Dec interest rate cuts. I’d expect a pullback/chop around 4-7 days out, probably a quick move up then back down with positioning for the risk of negative toning/outlook.

Can we trade above 100k? I’m not too sure and haven’t seen anything which would suggest it. However that doesn’t really matter as with previous rallies off the bottom, the move usually doesn’t become apparent until you have hindsight bias. Overall I’m leaning more bullish, except I’m expecting more chop in the 93-100k region unless we get a new catalyst/headline.

I could see Fartcoin moving up to 600-700 mil quite easily from here and in a short time span. If we do see continued strength from it I’d be mostly playing memes as they’ll significantly outperform utility. I’m watching a few plays closely alongside Pump’s PA which I’m quite bullish on as well.

Biggest focus is trading what’s in front of me and not trying to have too much of a forecast. Forecasters have had their ass handed to them the past few months and those who’ve been willing to adapt to new information on the spot have been the very small minority of outperformers.

This post is getting rather long so I’ll wrap it up here. No promises but I should be more consistent now and back to regular schedule.

Had a lot of fun writing this one and felt like it gave a large variety of information, hopefully it makes up for my absence.

Thought I’d share a previous $PUMP thesis I wrote for a trade.

This was written on Nov 27th (7 days ago), while I didn’t profit off the trade due to being stopped out on 10x lev with size, the thesis was quite strong and correct.

It was clear on the initial move back to 90k that Pump was the strongest asset and sitting at oversold levels due to emotional reactions of the fee switch and Alon’s silence. The goal was to wait for a pullback to 88k which ideally would have lined up with 0.00275 on Pump but the capitulation down to 84k whipsawed harder than I expected.

Hindsight I still think it was good positioning and would take it 10/10 times again as it was a 1:12 RR. Perps only makes sense for myself on higher leverage where I believe I can make 1-4x on a short time frame while only risking 10-20% of the position. Otherwise if I’m bullish on mid/longer term direction I’d rather find the most asymmetric onchain/spot play.

Thesis:

Btc to hold underside of 88k level, be aggressive going into rate cuts 2 weeks out, 1 week out start to taper off.

Fartcoin has been the holy grail of risk asset signal, makes a lot of sense its been in a down trend for the last 5 months which has been in line with launchcoin eco, fartcoin topped mid July and launchcoin started its death decent around a similar time.

The reason for fartcoin bottoming was wintermute running out of their option expiry to sell tokens and now it trades purely as a meme with no toxic flow coming into the chart while bouncing off generational support.

I want to see the initial oi candle retraced before entering the pump positioning as it would give better entry and a floor to work from instead of chasing higher since I’m on high leverage.

This was the last time we had consistent runners and overall bullish sentiment and forward outlook onchain.

Fartcoin also lead BTC and onchain overall by bottoming back in march when we had the initial tariff scares. This was almost a one month head start on BTC.

For the past 12 months, you’ll know onchain has always topped and bottomed before btc as the players have become much more sophisticated and surprisingly some of the better trades across all markets as they know money is much easier to pick up off the floor compared to tradfi.

Sentiment is at ATLs for pump, it’s a very reflexive asset based on animal spirits and comms. Alon has been quite for 2 weeks and timed the market perfectly with the descent of BTC, adding additional fear while still continuing the buybacks.

Conditions:

Btc bounces off 88k with aggression going into rate cuts

Fartcoin retraces the OI candle, holds at 0.3

Pump doesn’t make a new low on the LTF (above 0.00272)

Entry at 0.00275, SL tight underneath the 4hr close at 0.00272, TP at 0.0035

Previous two times it bounced off a the same region it took roughly 9 days for it to gain 40-50%

Im expecting btc to move 8% to 95k roughly 4-7 days out from fomc, I’m expecting pump to play catch up by 30-40% on the same move

Have some balls, click the button and stick to thesis

Few things I’m focusing on with trading:

1. Trading what’s in front of me. Look at what has strength, what’s being overlooked and what has the most asymmetric upside. Pivot fast if wrong and don’t get caught believing. Have very clear invalidation levels, you don’t always need to hold onchain bags to 0 and sometimes taking a -50% hit is the best option to free mental capacity and look for new opportunities (something I’ve struggled with as I get very attached to my theses and end up rather being right than making money sometimes).

2. Look for coins with motion and mindshare. You want to be trading coins with higher volume and volatility as I see time rugs being just as detrimental to losses right now. While there’s not a great deal of overt opportunity costs, I still believe rotations are brutal and won’t magically change anytime soon. I have long term positions but from my shorter term onchain trading perspective, you don’t want to be tied up in low volume low volatility coins unless there’s a painstakingly obvious narrative which everyone is overlooking.

3. Stop forecasting other than longer term tech/innovation trends. If 2025 has taught us anything it’s not to forecast and bank off seasonality. If there is growing mindshare for seasonality or time fractals then once you arrive to the beginning of that specific time period you’ll either be approaching the top or already there. There’s a fine line with signals and noise in this regard. Such as a 50 mil runner onchain being a catalyst for a bottom and increased appetite after low activity. But banking on specific time periods or given macro events has been very detrimental to many traders trying to play consensus. Since we’ve been in a downtrend the last month, it’s become obvious that traders sentiments have shifted to multi year pessimistic time horizons (short degeneracy type discussions). If you’re trying to make money onchain or on shorter time frames, this thinking and theses are very negative to having your finger on the pulse and catching the next wave. I love writing long form and trying to see 6 months into the future, however if I’m trying to trade 500k shitters and catch the current narrative, having that overcast of a long term pessimistic thinking will derail your trading abilities and short term money making outlook. Whether people realize it or not, they’re bear holing themselves and sidelining their chances of catching any form of new trend like the next AI szn. Reason why I try to stay in a constant optimistic state no matter market conditions.

Fartcoin proving to be the strongest asset as expected.

Even while we’ve mostly been chopping, it’s slow grinding up and the only appetite for onchain plays are memes.

Utility normally takes more time and confidence to steal mindshare from memes with a backdrop of new headlines in web2.

If we break above the 94-96k resistance both Fartcoin and Pump look ready to rip. I’m confident these will be the fastest horses if we’re to see more upside on BTC over the coming week. Fartcoin running would trigger animal spirits which I believe are being underestimated by most traders.

Important to note that the new runners will do -50% overnight if there’s any chop on BTC or Fartcoin. While they’re currently the most asymmetric upside, they’re still extremely risky and by no means a green light to get loose with risk management. Still mostly in wait and see mode while using small size to refine your edge and potentially catch some 5-10x’s.

There seems to be a consistent resistance at 4 mil for most of these memes as well so tread carefully when approaching that level. Also vamps are out in full swing which is another set of landmines you need to be cautious of.

Other than $WOJAK, $67, and $SPSC some of the more recent runners with mindshare are:

$FRANKLIN (11 mil)

Meme of a kids tv show which gained a ton of traction after Donald Trump Jr reposted the meme on his Instagram. The narrative is quite similar to SPSC which was directly commented on by Chase Hero who’s a co founder of WLFI. SPSC topped at 14 mil and Franklin currently has resistance at 15 mil. Tough to see Franklin lasting as people associated with Trump/WLFI have historically been mostly one and done shills.

$WHITEWHALE (4 mil)

Spawned as a meme of a popular CT perps trader who’s anonymous but strong mindshare with his recent lore from being liquidated in 10/10 plus a long history of trading. Some comparing him as the new Bonkguy, thinks that’s a bit of a stretch though. He’s recently taken over the meme of his own and doing buybacks with the fees to support it and make sure they don’t ruin his name. Quite a lot of usage with the meme itself and it’s very similar to Detective, Rome, Director style meme template but more crypto native. Historically these have never done well, seems to fade out after a few days and price becomes too heavy. Maybe the ct native aspect can give it more legs, not sure.

$PFP (3.5 mil)

Pumpfun Pepe. Quite an organic narrative by being the pepe on pumpfuns page. Doesn’t feel as forced as other memes and embedded into Pump’s product. Both a good and bad as it’s beta to Pump but also limited to external mindshare and quite native. Probably the most unique meme to recently spawn. Fits into the vamp style we’ve seen from Wojak and 67 but with a unique twist by being Pumpfuns Pepe. Good proxy to pump’s longevity and feels more organic than trencher and cupsy as a “mascot” style play.

$KERMIT (3 mil)

Only meme I currently have a small bag of. Based on Kermit the frog and was mostly a reaction to Wojaks success. Feels a little forced except it’s the strongest community I’ve seen so far. Been dm’d by several people which is quite rare and they raid super hard. While I don’t find the meme particularly great, I bought due to the previous reasons and the quality of the meme really isn’t as important as who’s involved and pushing the community atm. R:R isn’t amazing at 3 mil so would wait for entry if you want to gamble.

$NOTHING (2 mil)

Based on you’ll own nothing and be happy. Essentially a beta to Useless, Housecoin and the other several plays in that eco. You’re essentially betting on Shadows motion buying into this. Since Troll fell substantially he doesn’t have the same effect as he use to, although I wouldn’t completely right this off as his memes often go from 1-2 mil to 8 fig runners overnight. Again the narrative isn’t completely fresh and feels a little forced, what matters is how behind the mission other degens are willing to get alongside their main spokesperson.

Something I keep reminding myself while we’re in extremely hard conditions is these are the times that breed the best traders.

I started my trading journey full time around August/September last year (a few months before AI szn). Many people would agree that was some of the hardest conditions we’d seen in a very long time. It was coming off the memecoin frenzy of early in the summer and all that was left was multi walleter inside cabals pump and dumping animal pfps to 500k.

Surviving and building a strong framework in these times taught me a lot about positioning and sizing which was engrained into me super early. While I often didn’t stick to my own framework when we entered AI szn and there was excess money flowing around, when times turned harder again I was able to default back to good habits quite easily.

Needless to say, these times are meant to expose flaws, risk management, beliefs, confidence, research, flow of information to demonstrate why the market reacts the way it does.

Have you noticed how many doomer articles there are talking about the effects of short term dopamine like Tik Tok, gambling, porn/gooning [insert negative habit] from market participants?

An article on why capital is leaving BTC got 1.6 mil views and 2.8k likes.

Feels like every article I read is about why there’s something wrong with xyz. Pessimism feels maxed out.

There’s a saying that the bull market ends when participants want it to end. I think the uptrend starts when the weak give up, emotions take over and they lose sight of the light at the end of the tunnel.

This pessimism reads as quite sloppy without any form of strong thesis to back many of the ideas. The best argument we’ve had to the downfall of “hyper gambling” is that it’s extended for a reasonably long time frame (5 or so years since covid) and this has triggered a urge to return to nostalgic lifestyle habits. Which I definitely feel and agree on, however I believe these two actions can co exist.

Most of these conversations stem from NotWashed’s “Short Degeneracy” article which was very well written and had some good unbiased thoughts. As we know loss of money triggers strong visceral reactions, these discussions have felt like a perfect escape mechanism for those who aren’t willing to confront their mistakes.

Seems evident that people who’ve “failed” are desperate to be right on something and signs of exhaustion are evident in the quality of their thesis. Since they lost everything they want to see everything else crumble. Max pain would be markets going back up without them and the thought of that idea is too painful to process to the point where they ignore signs of a turning tide.

The data points to increased gambling and while I wish it didn’t for the sake of society and views on our own self worth, there’s no signs of slowing down and I can’t particularly see a catalyst that would slow it down. Those rejecting this new idea of gambling/internet finance/magical internet money feels akin to our grandparents buying a iPhone for the first time. If you had a similar experience to myself, my grandmothers iPhone received significantly yelling and forceful taps/punches to it’s screen.

Like my grandmas frustration towards new technology, I struggle to see a world where this decelerates and like mobile phones, financialization is embedded into every aspect of our life.

Everything the U.S gov and institutions are doing and saying points towards the acceleration of crypto, tokenization and digital finance. Time and time again when we’ve been at breaking point with situations like the collapse of Silvergate and even the Bank of Japan almost going under, there’s been bail outs or an inflection point every time.

Technology never takes a step backwards. The games might take new forms but the underlying principle will only have lower friction baked into it.

Daily Trading Journal - December 15th, 2025

How do I feel about markets today (majors & onchain)?

Tbh there hasn’t been much to really write about. I was mostly correct with my previous journal with the fact that I don’t see us breaking upwards to 100k, I thought we’d range slightly higher than we have but its evident there just really isn’t any catalyst which gives fundamental traders a reason to hold with confidence.

Crypto’s always been the volatile asset class which heavily rewards momentum traders. I’m of the opinion that mid/longer term sideways chop is more damaging to native traders ports than large up or down swings.

Reason being is we tend to have a high risk tolerance as this is the only place for younger adults to break into elite wealth status.

So you get a combination of big swingers + poor risk management + low opportunities + most importantly, overly confident in their theses.

Being overly confident in low opportunity environments causes you to wait past invalidation points. You sit there in stale bags waiting for x amount of weeks/months for the tide to turn while your port slow bleeds. Money is anywhere between 10-50x harder to make as opposed to when we’re in metas with strong animal spirits (AI/ICM/Memes).

Eventually a new meta sparks when markets pick up as devs and traders become more creative as they’re essentially trying to convince you to buy their bag based on emerging narratives happening in tech/culture.

Unless you have an extremely high quality thesis or luck, it’s very rare you’ll predict a meta multiple months ahead of time. Because you become so infatuated with your idea of what the next meta will be, you tend to miss the forest for the trees and don’t notice the market evolving.

This is a core reason why you should never full port and always have a healthy amount of stables. Holding stables keeps your mindset more open to evolving narratives and higher chance that you’ll see small nuances/shifts with how participants are reacting to new information/tech.

Being a solo maxi in anything is extremely dangerous. Yes it worked for btc if you entered several years ago but that’s one of, if not the biggest anomaly we’ve seen throughout the history of modern markets.

It’s naive to think you’ll find something as asymmetric that you can confidently allocate large amounts of your port and pray. The asymmetric risk and upside needs to be equivalent to how much you’re willing to allocate. If you’re expecting 100x returns then you shouldn’t need to allocate more than 5% as those chances are extremely low and you’ll 5x your port anyway as an example.

What are the most exciting narratives?

Hype is one of the most important assets to watch as its the only asset in the top 30 which isn’t a Dino coin and represents strength of innovation and how much value is attached to onchain stocks and a crossover of liquidity. They are running into supply issues and also ADL fud recently which seems to be affecting PA a bit.

Hyperliquid never really interested me a ton cause I don’t trade perps too heavily (if I do it’s on CEX’s anyway) and I missed most of the upside. I was a big dydx bull and wrote an deep dive on substack a few years ago. I spent a lot of time trying to chase successful perp DEX’s throughout 2022/2023, except no one was able to keep tight enough spreads while not being smoked by CEX teams finding vulnerabilities with their engines. None of them allowed for significant sized other than dydx as it was being supported by the few large MM’s at the time who were also investors in the protocol.

Miner, Kermit and Nothing the only smaller memes which have held value. I do like the miner meme a lot and it’s one of the most heavily used and closely correlated memes to degens. Also having the artist onboard is a similar situation to the 67 vamp where it become the “official” coin and adds fuel to it. Probably best chance I can see for an organic runner atm. The fact we saw Franklin decline so fast (was kinda expected) just shows the weakness for smaller memes overall. If you’re holding for >24 hours you should be looking for the stonger community coins, not attention (whitewhale/Franklin)

Franklin and SPSC have show the only coins able to break 8 figs is directly shilled by government officials which is a pretty bad state to be in. Flying Ketamine Horse ran to 10 mil except it just felt like another bonk crime coin that was bundled with no legitimate appetite.

Fartcoin is still relatively strong compared to everything else and I think it has a decent chance of going higher once markets eventually break upwards. Pump is weaker than I expected, think this stems from the weakness in smaller memes, Alon silent and no utility coins performing. I’m not too deep in the fee mechanism rabbit hole but smarter people I follow believe fees eventually trend to zero on par with CEX offerings.

GODL is also an interesting token as it becomes the first launchpad to allow anyone to mine and launch a token on a bonding curve before migrating liquidity to meteora. There’s been a lot of debates by the research crowd the past 1-2 years whether proof of work or proof of stake has been the most effective method for network efforts and fees.

Be very greedy with entires, you’ll most likely get them. Don’t over allocate but if there is coins you really like then I think it’s worth taking small stabs and holding, especially if we retest the mid 80’s on BTC over the next week or so.

Keep stables for when new shiny objects and games emerge. They will come back eventually and they’ll be the most asymmetric when they do.

As I’ve been echoing, trade what’s in front of you and don’t get too far sighted. Until proven otherwise you need to be risk adverse and any onchain trading should be for the sake of refining edge and staying sharp, not swinging for the fences and trying to make hero trades.

How do I feel about markets tomorrow (majors & onchain)?

Not a sexy answer but there’s really not much to do besides sit on hands and wait.

I’ve been through enough chop periods over the years to realize how devastating they can be. These periods test who’ve done the mindset work to develop extreme patience while not fully tapping out (cockroach mode). This is a skillset I’ve developed quite well and why I talk about having external habits and lifestyle away from crypto so you don’t go insane waiting for markets. Also why I think every traders goal should be to working towards 2 years of living expenses so you don’t feel rushed into making poor trades/decisions in low opportunity environments.

I’d love to be able to lock in and put significant time into onchain but it really doesn’t reward it right now. Those who do stay active in these chop periods are the ones who catch majority of the swing for when we do return though.

While markets are only getting more advanced, it’s easy to feel a sense of doomerism as most of the free money on the floor disappears from vaporware speculation and pricing becomes more efficient and realistic. Even still, I’ll sound like a broken record and will continue to be extremely optimistic on cryptos future. I do think we’ll eventually get some form of alt szn when we see a true convergence of businesses and migrations of onchain stocks. It won’t be a 2021 style run as speculation will always have more upside than real products, however when the world realizes how efficient crypto’s rails are and enough businesses onboard, there will be a reflexive flywheel which will cause new money to flow back in and most importantly, not just through ETFs with BTC and ETH but trickle down effects to smaller companies/tokens which we haven’t seen in a long time.

MetaDAO, Launchoin and Street/ERC-S are demonstrating high appetite for this ideology, all it takes is the right formula, businesses and animals spirits to ignite legitimacy and trust in capital allocation.

As for macro I haven’t been too tuned in nor have a strong take on where we’re heading over the next month. Since crypto is quite decorrelated from stocks, I’m more interested in looking for catalyst which will spark confidence in BTC and onchain.

Right now it doesn’t seem to matter as strongly for what the macro environment is doing. If macro turns bearish and we continue to have minimal catalyst for BTC, it feels like we’ll continue lower comparatively to stocks in the short term. I don’t see us going down too much further though as the idea of a 70k BTC sounds like too free of a trade if you’re a sized individual or entity. For myself the idea of BTC hitting 150k within the next 2 years seems almost guaranteed unless we go into a WW3 type setting. Yes stocks have been performing extremely well, however there’s many funds/HNW individuals who are willing to sit on a near infinite sized trade for a 2x over a 1-2 year period.

I don’t see a reason yet why we’d leave the current range we’re in. PA is very dependent on what Trump and co say on markets and their views/policies to crypto. Until we get more news in that regard I’m going to keep the mindset that we’ll chop. I’ll continue to look for signals which would send us either direction, although it’s much safer to be overly cautious and not to get too bull/bear pilled until we have strong confirmation of direction.

Dollars here are worth significantly more and if you chop yourself up before the next meta you’ll miss where all the money is made. We went sideways for 7-8 months in 2024, the final two months of that chop was some of the grimmest conditions onchain had seen. Which is what led to such asymmetric returns in AI szn since believers confidence was so shattered and had to consistently rebuy higher, forcing traders into holders.

The longer we chop, the more asymmetric the new meta becomes as majority of participants tap out and fall for the “suckers rally” belief. Surviving isn’t easy and survivorship bias is very apparent in KOLs who like to flex how well they’ve done and shit on everyone else.

If a few trades went against me then maybe I wouldn’t still be writing and forced into a job. However, you always need to remain optimistic and looking for the finer details. Luck can be increased and manifested through actions and especially discipline to show up everyday.

Apologies if this wasn’t super alpha packed. In these times voicing sensible decisions and mindsets feels much more important to your longevity than what price BTC will be in 5 days from now. Never fully tap out unless it’s a purposeful break, still worth paying attention as spots will continue showing up for the hungry.

If you’ve made a reasonable amount of money from crypto, remember to buy loved ones and yourself something nice for Christmas. Life’s much better spent enjoying your money, health and not being frugile.

Make the most of silly season and time with friends/family over the next few weeks.

HIV positive tweet

This might sound weird but I’m probably the biggest reader of my own journal.

I’m quite good at constructing a large variety of ideas and pattern recognition + intuition in a short time span. Once I do I’ll spend a significant amount of time rereading what I’ve written and sitting with the thoughts.

Say a write up takes me 30 minutes. I’ll typically use around 30-60 minutes where I’ll let the ideas sit, ponder, maybe do some light scrolling/reading and then come back to the ideas to see if I can extrapolate or make them better.

My first drafts on average are very sound and don’t need too edit much typically. It’s more so for the fact of letting what I’ve written and how I’ve constructed the sequence of ideas marinate into my brain.

Why did I write it? What sparked these ideas? Am I expanding/learning something new or am I repeating ideas I’ve previously written? Am I emotional tilted right now?

While it’s difficult not to overlap thoughts, I attempt to find new angles of thinking or perspective for how mindset, frameworks, psychological factors etc might intertwine with each other.

At its core this is where I think my biggest edge lies. It’s having the curiosity and attention to detail to look at completely non correspondent fields and draw similarities or connections with one another.

I was speaking with a friend the other day who was struggling with finding topics that interested him and having a direction towards business ideas. As many of you know I’m massive on understanding what creates curiosity within your own personality as it’s the core emotion to extrapolating on your current knowledge base and expanding overall skillset within trading/business endeavours.

When I’m burnt out from markets and trying to get my spark back to actively trade, my biggest focus is increasing my curiosity. I tend to do this through continuous reading and mostly niche articles.

One might be on quantum computing, the effects of geopolitical tensions on seed grains and how icebergs form. Then I’ll ask myself: is there any correlation here? A common denominator? Impacts towards other industries/sectors? Is it improving or worsening? What am I surprised by?

Maybe you answer no or don’t have an answer at all for all of these, that’s fine. This is a stimulus exercise.

When we’re stuck on certain ideas (losing money), we’re very closed minded. It’s extremely hard to break the day to day thoughts patterns such as what you could of been able to buy with the recent trading losses you’ve just experienced.

Reading new material, allowing new thought patterns and understanding how much opportunity is out there in the world is what you’re aiming to achieve. Not only does this serve as a distraction from your constant negative looping thoughts but a rewiring of your brain to realize that your recent experiences is merely a tiny dot among thousands of results.

Which is why when I’ll make a new post, I’ll sit there throughout the day and reread it dozens of times. I’m essentially trying to rewire my brain as I treat this journal just as much for myself as I do for external readers. Everything I write is meant for myself to upgrade my way of thinking and constantly putting in repetitions to not fall into bad habits/thinking.

I still struggle a lot with managing my own emotions and watching life changing money flash in my face everyday. When I’m not frequently writing, those emotions become even harder to manage and turn to an echo chamber of spiralling thoughts with no substance.

Writing with the intent to constantly improve and rereading my own work dozens of times has been the best counter to this. Without it, I think I’d struggle to show up and manage a high quality of life and work ethic to an industry which is so dopamine depriving.

If you do journal, don’t just write for the sake of writing. Reread, ponder and ask abstract questions for how you can extrapolate on ideas or draw new connections.

Making money is a result of removing limiting beliefs. Find the most efficient way to get there.

Something unexpected you’ll run into as you scale your portfolio is how you construct it based on certain milestones.

You have all these ideologies of what your portfolio will look like when you eventually reach 7 figs, which end up being very different to what your pre conceived ideas and emotions are while sitting at 5 figs.

There’s a large mismatch with how you envisioned it and what the reality of the situation is once you’re there.

Nothing can properly prepare you for being confronted with large numbers, especially in a short time span. I think that’s also why we see such significant round trips in this space without many keeping their gains.

Firstly, you need to be retarded enough to hold through multiples which would make the average persons brain explode. Then do a 180 when you notice subtle shifts of weakness in your bags or reduced mindshare, momentum and catalysts to uphold price.

Because of how emotionally stimulating reaching these milestones are, you lose all sense of logic.

Suddenly a 2x from your current position is a second house, a Ferrari, the ability to not have to work for 10 years. Going from nothing into the ability to have it all change based off a few more green candles is what rips your framework apart.

Which is why it’s so important to have your allocations in stables, majors and alts written and followed to a tea, along with how you scale out of positions based on their mcap/price and volatility.

This is why you’ll typically see people hand back their large gains when initially finding success and can often take several attempts before they become disciplined enough to stick to their framework.

Paper trading or trading with low size will never be a true replacement for the real thing. Yes it can sharpen execution and I do recommend and partake in it, but there’s no simulation for having your balls on the table and getting 2 hours sleep every night because you can’t stop checking your position.

Overtime if you do it right, the processes you put in place should continuously upgrade your quality of life, mindset towards money and faith in your own abilities.

The big wins will always affect you to some degree, even if you do it for decades, although by that point if you’re still trading, it should be like riding a bike where the subconscious and rules you’ve set do all the work.

Time to get the show back on the road.

Spent the last 10 or so days in party mode while keeping a slight watch on markets.

Feeling very refreshed although with a few less IQ points, still just as hungry and got the love for the game as always.

Had some time to think about this past year and reflect on my positive and negative traits. Looking back I was quite fortunate that when I started properly trading around Aug 24’, I understood risk management and frameworks very fast due to trading in extremely hard conditions.

I’ve been in the industry for approx 5 years now (mostly as a builder), although I’ve always been very passionate towards trading and systems since I knew I’d eventually have to trade once I came into wealth.

So in terms of framework and how I approach trading overall, I didn’t really feel like there was many holes other than just sticking to what my guidelines are and not falling to fomo. Still, I failed at this multiple times and took much larger drawdowns than I would like to admit.

Regarding positives, what I’ve found to bring me more success compared to other traders is willing to take action and ride momentum. Along with being patient to take extremely high conviction, low risk trades. Why try and take high risk size trades every couple days/week instead of aiming for a 80% hit rate once a month? Do some simple maths on compounding effects, besides the numbers, the mental clarity allows you to build much better intuition and read on the market.

If you’ve been a reader of this channel for a while, then you’ll know how big I am on slowly ramping up your screen time and read on the market to reach optimal flow state. Then understanding how long you can stay in that pocket before burning out and becoming a risk due to oversizing or chasing trades.

This might come as a surprise but I hardly ever plan and will only write down some brief goals every few months. Everyday I wake up I think about what’s the most effective task I can be doing right now to upskill myself in an area that’s lacking (twitter, dexscreener, gc’s, research, talking with founders, using new tools etc).

The aim is to have my mind as empty as possible so whatever pops up in front of me has my full undivided attention. I don’t tend to get stuck in looping thoughts or on certain ideologies/thinking if I’m doing it right. It’s being nimble while slowly gathering pieces of information where you’re able to slowly form high conviction, and generating several situations/variabilities that could be for/against your thesis.

Most of this thinking carries over to my day to day life as well. On any given day I can rarely tell you what my schedule will look like tomorrow. Where I think many go wrong is trying to overly plan or structure their life. For myself and friends who’ve been high achievers, the common trait has been high agency (being able to immediately take action and not get caught up in fine details) while keeping quite an unserious and stoic approach to issues/difficulties that pop up.

Nearly every highly successful person I met (and more importantly respect), is able to have very unserious conversations and joke around. I’ve met many successful businessmen in the corporate world who are missing this trait, making them extremely boring. This has always subconsciously created an untrustworthy relationship, as they’re not willing to show any form of vulnerability or personality traits.

When you’re the best of the best, you’re comfortable in your own skin. You don’t need to put on a face to everyone else since you know your processes are as refined as can be while continuously aiming to improve. This is a confidence you can’t fake and no matter how good you are at non verbal communication and psychology, little cracks will eventually reveal to those who are at the same level or above you. Which is why it’s important to try and remain authentic as possible at all times and not chase a false reality, since it does you no favours in any aspect of life.

Looking forward to all the future opportunities.

2026 is a year of optimism.