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We are going deep on the Power Law as we break down the latest edition of Bitcoin News Research 🔬
Today at 3:00 PM Eastern Time (in less than an hour)
Join @Sina_21st, @dotkrueger, @hcburger1 and more for a mathematical discussion on the growth of #Bitcoin
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https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1799142116750147982
Subscribe to our research newsletter 👇
https://bitcoinnewsresearch.beehiiv.com
We are going deep on the Power Law as we break down the latest edition of Bitcoin News Research 🔬
Today at 3:00 PM Eastern Time (in less than an hour)
Join @Sina_21st, @dotkrueger, @hcburger1 and more for a mathematical discussion on the growth of #Bitcoin
Set reminders 👇
https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1799142116750147982
Subscribe to our research newsletter 👇
https://bitcoinnewsresearch.beehiiv.com
X (formerly Twitter)
Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) on X
We are going deep on the Power Law as we break down the latest edition of Bitcoin News Research 🔬
Join @Sina_21st, @dotkrueger, @hcburger1 and more for a mathematical discussion on the growth of #Bitcoin
Set reminders and subscribe below👇
https://t.co/zXEJ0KCVS9
Join @Sina_21st, @dotkrueger, @hcburger1 and more for a mathematical discussion on the growth of #Bitcoin
Set reminders and subscribe below👇
https://t.co/zXEJ0KCVS9
21st Capital
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Introducing Volatility-Adjusted Power Law Index
An actionable metric for judging over/undervaluation of Bitcoin.
The metric is derived from the Power Law model and is adjusted for volatility to correct for changes in Bitcoin's market structure over time.
1/ High Accuracy
It correctly identifies the bottoms and tops of all prior cycles.
2/ Stable Range Over Time
A problem with many of the existing indicators and oscillators is that their meaning and ranges change over time. Take MVRV (one of the current bests) for example. It went as high as 7 in cycle 1 but went only up to 3.95 in the cycle 4. This makes judgement for the next cycle very challenging.
However, VPLI's oscillation range remains stable over all four past cycles because it is adjusted by market structure in each period.
3/ Regions of Overvaluation and Undervaluation
- Deep Value (<-10): 10% of time
- Value (-10, -5): 25%
- Cool (-5, 0): 25%
- Warm (0, 5): 20%
- Hot (5, 10): 15%
- Extreme Bubble (>10): 5%
* The percentages indicate the % of time the index spends in each region
The article detailing this metric and its methodology will be published in the next edition of the Bitcoin News Research newsletter. Subscribe using this link!
If you liked our content, please share your thoughts. Same article on twitter.
Bitcoin News Research is a collaboration between @BitcoinNewsCom and @21st_capital
An actionable metric for judging over/undervaluation of Bitcoin.
The metric is derived from the Power Law model and is adjusted for volatility to correct for changes in Bitcoin's market structure over time.
1/ High Accuracy
It correctly identifies the bottoms and tops of all prior cycles.
2/ Stable Range Over Time
A problem with many of the existing indicators and oscillators is that their meaning and ranges change over time. Take MVRV (one of the current bests) for example. It went as high as 7 in cycle 1 but went only up to 3.95 in the cycle 4. This makes judgement for the next cycle very challenging.
However, VPLI's oscillation range remains stable over all four past cycles because it is adjusted by market structure in each period.
3/ Regions of Overvaluation and Undervaluation
- Deep Value (<-10): 10% of time
- Value (-10, -5): 25%
- Cool (-5, 0): 25%
- Warm (0, 5): 20%
- Hot (5, 10): 15%
- Extreme Bubble (>10): 5%
* The percentages indicate the % of time the index spends in each region
The article detailing this metric and its methodology will be published in the next edition of the Bitcoin News Research newsletter. Subscribe using this link!
If you liked our content, please share your thoughts. Same article on twitter.
Bitcoin News Research is a collaboration between @BitcoinNewsCom and @21st_capital
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Recorded Spaces
@Sina_21st @Nebraskangooner, @SimonDixonTwitt, and @JSeyff talk Bitcoin investment strategy.
https://x.com/wolf_webthree/status/1800603950904967354?s=46
@Sina_21st @Nebraskangooner, @SimonDixonTwitt, and @JSeyff talk Bitcoin investment strategy.
https://x.com/wolf_webthree/status/1800603950904967354?s=46
📣Is Bitcoin Undervalued Right Now?📣
📚 In this 15-minute YouTube video, we discuss our newly developed Bitcoin valuation model that indicates where Bitcoin stands at any point in time relative to the "fair price".
PS: This is our new YouTube channel with new branding. We will post video summaries of our research there. Please give it a follow if you are interested in this content.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3vfteUjnHs
📚 In this 15-minute YouTube video, we discuss our newly developed Bitcoin valuation model that indicates where Bitcoin stands at any point in time relative to the "fair price".
PS: This is our new YouTube channel with new branding. We will post video summaries of our research there. Please give it a follow if you are interested in this content.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3vfteUjnHs
YouTube
Bitcoin Price Prediction - Volatility Adjusted Power Law Index
Volatility-adjusted power law index (VPLI) is a powerful tool to very accurately predict the Bitcoin price.
By determining Bitcoin's bubbles and lows, VPLI helps you optimize your Bitcoin DCA or investment strategy.
In this short video, Sina explains the…
By determining Bitcoin's bubbles and lows, VPLI helps you optimize your Bitcoin DCA or investment strategy.
In this short video, Sina explains the…
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Trump: "On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler."
The crowd goes ecstatic.
The crowd goes ecstatic.
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Bitcoin Insights #2 📣
The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path that will end in the destruction of the currency, rampant inflation, and increased risk of bankruptcy.
In this video, I take a look at the federal budget, its components, and the projected future path.
https://youtu.be/ss-U7rE3Dac
The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path that will end in the destruction of the currency, rampant inflation, and increased risk of bankruptcy.
In this video, I take a look at the federal budget, its components, and the projected future path.
https://youtu.be/ss-U7rE3Dac
YouTube
This will destroy the US dollar!
The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path that will end in the destruction of the currency, rampant inflation, and increased risk of bankruptcy.
In this video, I take a look at the federal budget, its components, and the projected future path.
------…
In this video, I take a look at the federal budget, its components, and the projected future path.
------…
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How will the proposed US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve be paid for?
https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1818818070900883953
https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1818818070900883953
X (formerly Twitter)
Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital (@Sina_21st) on X
How will the BITCOIN ACT pay for the 1M Bitcoin?
Senator Lummis's @SenLummis BITCOIN ACT aims to buy 1M coins over 5 years, or 200K Bitcoin a year.
At a conservative average price of $100K, that requires $20B in the first year and potentially more as Bitcoin's…
Senator Lummis's @SenLummis BITCOIN ACT aims to buy 1M coins over 5 years, or 200K Bitcoin a year.
At a conservative average price of $100K, that requires $20B in the first year and potentially more as Bitcoin's…
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🚨 Market turmoil got you concerned?
Check out this article by our COO Sina who breaks down why the markets are crashing – recession fears, major trades blowing up, and geopolitical tensions.
https://21stcapital.com/three-reasons-why-the-markets-are-crashing/
Check out this article by our COO Sina who breaks down why the markets are crashing – recession fears, major trades blowing up, and geopolitical tensions.
https://21stcapital.com/three-reasons-why-the-markets-are-crashing/
21st Capital
Three Reasons Why the Markets Are Crashing - 21st Capital
This week, the markets have been on a wild ride, with sharp swings across all asset classes. After showing strength following the Fed meeting, the S&P 500 took a dive by Thursday and Friday. The Nasdaq 100 also plunged into correction territory, leaving many…
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Why are the markets crashing?
The S&P & Dow had their worst day since 2022, and investors are panic selling due to a confluence of three deadly forces crushing hopes for a soft landing.
In this 12-min video, I explain these factors & how I think they will play out.
https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1820623837404311683
The S&P & Dow had their worst day since 2022, and investors are panic selling due to a confluence of three deadly forces crushing hopes for a soft landing.
In this 12-min video, I explain these factors & how I think they will play out.
https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1820623837404311683
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VIEW IN TELEGRAM
The job market is teetering on the edge of a cliff.
We have had three months of back-to-back declines in job creation, which, if continued, could trigger a recession.
#Clip
We have had three months of back-to-back declines in job creation, which, if continued, could trigger a recession.
#Clip
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