🇫🇷 CAUTION ON FRENCH BONDS STILL WARRANTED
SocGen strategists advise holding off on buying French government bonds until political risks clear. PM François Bayrou faces a confidence vote Sept. 8, with nationwide strikes set for Sept. 10 and a Fitch ratings review Sept. 12.
The 10-year OAT yield is at 3.478%, with the OAT–Bund spread at 77 bps.
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SocGen strategists advise holding off on buying French government bonds until political risks clear. PM François Bayrou faces a confidence vote Sept. 8, with nationwide strikes set for Sept. 10 and a Fitch ratings review Sept. 12.
The 10-year OAT yield is at 3.478%, with the OAT–Bund spread at 77 bps.
(@WalterBloomberg)
🚨 BLS SAYS IT'S EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES
BLS SAYS DATA RETRIEVAL TOOLS ARE NOT AVAILABLE ON WEBSITE
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BLS SAYS DATA RETRIEVAL TOOLS ARE NOT AVAILABLE ON WEBSITE
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🚨 *BLS EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES BEFORE PAYROLLS REPORT
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LUTNICK: US ECO NUMBERS WILL GET BETTER AFTER STAFF CHANGES
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BLS REPORTS TECHNICAL ISSUES AHEAD OF JOBS DATA
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its data retrieval tools are down ahead of the September 5 jobs report release at 8:30 a.m. ET. It hasn’t indicated whether the outage will delay publication.
The employment report is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, shaping markets and Fed policy
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its data retrieval tools are down ahead of the September 5 jobs report release at 8:30 a.m. ET. It hasn’t indicated whether the outage will delay publication.
The employment report is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, shaping markets and Fed policy
(@WalterBloomberg)
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LUTNICK: WRONG FOR INDIA TO INCREASE PURCHASES OF RUSSIAN OIL
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*US YIELDS DIP AMID BLS TECHNICAL PROBLEMS BEFORE JOBS REPORT
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SPX Reaction Guide (09/05/2025 – NFP Scenarios)
🔸 NFP < 0: SPX -1.50%
🔸 0–24k: SPX -0.75%
🔸 25k–49k: SPX ±0.25%
🔸 50k–74k (est. +60k): SPX +0.50%
🔸 75k–100k: SPX +0.75% https://t.co/BRk5Nf0CyL
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🔸 NFP < 0: SPX -1.50%
🔸 0–24k: SPX -0.75%
🔸 25k–49k: SPX ±0.25%
🔸 50k–74k (est. +60k): SPX +0.50%
🔸 75k–100k: SPX +0.75% https://t.co/BRk5Nf0CyL
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TREASURY 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 3.55%, LOWEST SINCE APRIL 7
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🚨 U.S. AUGUST NONFARM PAYROLLS +22,000 (CONSENSUS +75,000) VS JULY +79,000 (PREV +73,000), JUNE -13,000 (PREV +14,000)
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*US AUG. AVG WORKWEEK 34.2 HOURS; EST. 34.3
*US AUG. MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS FALL -12K M/M; EST. -5K
*US AUG. PRIVATE PAYROLLS RISE 38K M/M; EST. +75K
*US AUG. PARTICIPATION RATE 62.3%; EST. 62.2%
*US AUG. UNDEREMPLOYMENT 8.1%
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*US AUG. MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS FALL -12K M/M; EST. -5K
*US AUG. PRIVATE PAYROLLS RISE 38K M/M; EST. +75K
*US AUG. PARTICIPATION RATE 62.3%; EST. 62.2%
*US AUG. UNDEREMPLOYMENT 8.1%
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🚨 *US AUG. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 22K M/M; EST. +75K
*US AUG. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US AUG. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 3.7% Y/Y; EST. +3.7%
*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.3%; EST. 4.3%
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*US AUG. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US AUG. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 3.7% Y/Y; EST. +3.7%
*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.3%; EST. 4.3%
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🚨 TRADERS ADD TO BETS ON FED INTEREST-RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER
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NONFARM REPORT: WITH THESE REVISIONS, EMPLOYMENT IN JUNE AND JULY COMBINED IS 21,000 LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
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US TREASURY TWO-YEAR YIELD FALLS FURTHER, DOWN 6.2 BPS AT 3.528%
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DXY DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO 5-WEEK LOW OF 97.516 AFTER JOBS DATA
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MANUFACTURING JOBS FELL BY 12,000 AND ARE NOW DOWN BY 78,000 OVER THE YEAR: NONFARM REPORT
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GOLDMAN SACHS TRADER: BUY THE SEPTEMBER DIP.
Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone advises buying September’s stock dip, predicting the S&P 500 could climb to 6,700–6,900 as rate cuts boost growth.
In a note issued before the latest jobs report, he said markets are already pricing in a Fed cutting cycle that will spur economic re-acceleration. August jobs growth was just 22,000 vs. 75,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.3%. The weak data pushed the dollar lower, yields down, and stocks higher.
Schiavone sees the Fed’s long-run rate near 3%, similar to the ECB, and expects stretched valuations in credit and equities to persist. He recommends owning rates volatility, buying equity dips, and watching Nasdaq and Russell indexes for signals.
He also warns of risks from “fiscal dominance,” where central banks lose independence, which could raise front-end rates and stagflation risks. For now, he stresses that incoming data must “carry the load.”
(@WalterBloomberg)
Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone advises buying September’s stock dip, predicting the S&P 500 could climb to 6,700–6,900 as rate cuts boost growth.
In a note issued before the latest jobs report, he said markets are already pricing in a Fed cutting cycle that will spur economic re-acceleration. August jobs growth was just 22,000 vs. 75,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.3%. The weak data pushed the dollar lower, yields down, and stocks higher.
Schiavone sees the Fed’s long-run rate near 3%, similar to the ECB, and expects stretched valuations in credit and equities to persist. He recommends owning rates volatility, buying equity dips, and watching Nasdaq and Russell indexes for signals.
He also warns of risks from “fiscal dominance,” where central banks lose independence, which could raise front-end rates and stagflation risks. For now, he stresses that incoming data must “carry the load.”
(@WalterBloomberg)
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