BLS REPORTS TECHNICAL ISSUES AHEAD OF JOBS DATA
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its data retrieval tools are down ahead of the September 5 jobs report release at 8:30 a.m. ET. It hasn’t indicated whether the outage will delay publication.
The employment report is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, shaping markets and Fed policy
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its data retrieval tools are down ahead of the September 5 jobs report release at 8:30 a.m. ET. It hasn’t indicated whether the outage will delay publication.
The employment report is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, shaping markets and Fed policy
(@WalterBloomberg)
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LUTNICK: WRONG FOR INDIA TO INCREASE PURCHASES OF RUSSIAN OIL
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*US YIELDS DIP AMID BLS TECHNICAL PROBLEMS BEFORE JOBS REPORT
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SPX Reaction Guide (09/05/2025 – NFP Scenarios)
🔸 NFP < 0: SPX -1.50%
🔸 0–24k: SPX -0.75%
🔸 25k–49k: SPX ±0.25%
🔸 50k–74k (est. +60k): SPX +0.50%
🔸 75k–100k: SPX +0.75% https://t.co/BRk5Nf0CyL
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🔸 NFP < 0: SPX -1.50%
🔸 0–24k: SPX -0.75%
🔸 25k–49k: SPX ±0.25%
🔸 50k–74k (est. +60k): SPX +0.50%
🔸 75k–100k: SPX +0.75% https://t.co/BRk5Nf0CyL
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TREASURY 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 3.55%, LOWEST SINCE APRIL 7
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🚨 U.S. AUGUST NONFARM PAYROLLS +22,000 (CONSENSUS +75,000) VS JULY +79,000 (PREV +73,000), JUNE -13,000 (PREV +14,000)
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*US AUG. AVG WORKWEEK 34.2 HOURS; EST. 34.3
*US AUG. MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS FALL -12K M/M; EST. -5K
*US AUG. PRIVATE PAYROLLS RISE 38K M/M; EST. +75K
*US AUG. PARTICIPATION RATE 62.3%; EST. 62.2%
*US AUG. UNDEREMPLOYMENT 8.1%
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*US AUG. MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS FALL -12K M/M; EST. -5K
*US AUG. PRIVATE PAYROLLS RISE 38K M/M; EST. +75K
*US AUG. PARTICIPATION RATE 62.3%; EST. 62.2%
*US AUG. UNDEREMPLOYMENT 8.1%
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🚨 *US AUG. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 22K M/M; EST. +75K
*US AUG. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US AUG. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 3.7% Y/Y; EST. +3.7%
*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.3%; EST. 4.3%
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*US AUG. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US AUG. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 3.7% Y/Y; EST. +3.7%
*US AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.3%; EST. 4.3%
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🚨 TRADERS ADD TO BETS ON FED INTEREST-RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER
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NONFARM REPORT: WITH THESE REVISIONS, EMPLOYMENT IN JUNE AND JULY COMBINED IS 21,000 LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
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US TREASURY TWO-YEAR YIELD FALLS FURTHER, DOWN 6.2 BPS AT 3.528%
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DXY DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO 5-WEEK LOW OF 97.516 AFTER JOBS DATA
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MANUFACTURING JOBS FELL BY 12,000 AND ARE NOW DOWN BY 78,000 OVER THE YEAR: NONFARM REPORT
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GOLDMAN SACHS TRADER: BUY THE SEPTEMBER DIP.
Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone advises buying September’s stock dip, predicting the S&P 500 could climb to 6,700–6,900 as rate cuts boost growth.
In a note issued before the latest jobs report, he said markets are already pricing in a Fed cutting cycle that will spur economic re-acceleration. August jobs growth was just 22,000 vs. 75,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.3%. The weak data pushed the dollar lower, yields down, and stocks higher.
Schiavone sees the Fed’s long-run rate near 3%, similar to the ECB, and expects stretched valuations in credit and equities to persist. He recommends owning rates volatility, buying equity dips, and watching Nasdaq and Russell indexes for signals.
He also warns of risks from “fiscal dominance,” where central banks lose independence, which could raise front-end rates and stagflation risks. For now, he stresses that incoming data must “carry the load.”
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Goldman Sachs macro trader Paolo Schiavone advises buying September’s stock dip, predicting the S&P 500 could climb to 6,700–6,900 as rate cuts boost growth.
In a note issued before the latest jobs report, he said markets are already pricing in a Fed cutting cycle that will spur economic re-acceleration. August jobs growth was just 22,000 vs. 75,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.3%. The weak data pushed the dollar lower, yields down, and stocks higher.
Schiavone sees the Fed’s long-run rate near 3%, similar to the ECB, and expects stretched valuations in credit and equities to persist. He recommends owning rates volatility, buying equity dips, and watching Nasdaq and Russell indexes for signals.
He also warns of risks from “fiscal dominance,” where central banks lose independence, which could raise front-end rates and stagflation risks. For now, he stresses that incoming data must “carry the load.”
(@WalterBloomberg)
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SAUDI ARABIA WANTS OPEC+ TO SPEED UP NEXT OIL PRODUCTION BOOST
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MARKETS PRICE IN RATE CUT, SEE 12% ODDS OF HALF-POINT MOVE
Traders now see a 100% chance the Fed cuts rates this month, with a 12% chance of a larger 50 bp cut. Before the weak payrolls report, markets expected a cut but not of that size.
Annex Wealth’s Brian Jacobsen said revisions showed “nearly net zero job creation,” reviving talk of a bigger move. Short-term Treasury yields fell sharply after the data.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Traders now see a 100% chance the Fed cuts rates this month, with a 12% chance of a larger 50 bp cut. Before the weak payrolls report, markets expected a cut but not of that size.
Annex Wealth’s Brian Jacobsen said revisions showed “nearly net zero job creation,” reviving talk of a bigger move. Short-term Treasury yields fell sharply after the data.
(@WalterBloomberg)
*TREASURY 2-YEAR YIELD FALLS 10 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 3.48%
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VITAL KNOWLEDGE: FED WOULD CUT 50BP IF NOT FOR TARIFFS
Adam Crisafulli says weak labor data (BLS, ADP, JOLTs, ISMs, Challenger) supports Fed easing. Without tariff-driven inflation risks, the Fed would likely cut 50bp on Sept. 17 and 25bp at the next two meetings.
Instead, investors should expect three 25bp cuts (75bp total) this year. For stocks, lower rates help, but the depth of labor weakness is a growing concern.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Adam Crisafulli says weak labor data (BLS, ADP, JOLTs, ISMs, Challenger) supports Fed easing. Without tariff-driven inflation risks, the Fed would likely cut 50bp on Sept. 17 and 25bp at the next two meetings.
Instead, investors should expect three 25bp cuts (75bp total) this year. For stocks, lower rates help, but the depth of labor weakness is a growing concern.
(@WalterBloomberg)