Donald Trump, if re-elected as US president, might insist on Ukraine's refusal to join NATO, according to the Financial Times. JD Vance, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, has supported the idea of a neutral Ukraine, suggesting this approach could guarantee both Kyiv's independence and its neutrality. Vance mentioned in an interview with the New York Times in June that neutrality is a significant concern for Russia.

Ukraine, on the other hand, is adamant about restoring its full territorial integrity, including Crimea. The US and its European allies have pledged to support Ukraine for as long as necessary and have stated they will not impose peace terms on the Ukrainians. Gideon Rahman, chief international affairs columnist at the Financial Times, highlighted that the primary obstacle to peace is not just Ukraine's reluctance to make territorial concessions but also Russia's demand for a settlement involving the control of 80% of Ukraine's territory, which it currently does not possess. Ukrainians require guarantees that Russia will not use a peace settlement to rearm and launch further offensives.

Kyiv's stance is that Ukraine should join NATO to be covered by the Alliance's collective security guarantees. The recent NATO summit declared that "the future of Ukraine is in NATO," but specified this would occur "when the Allies agree and the conditions are met."

An alternative proposal in Washington is the "Israeli option," which would avoid a formal treaty obligation to defend Ukraine. Instead, it would involve providing advanced Western military aid to Ukraine, enabling it to independently deter future Russian aggression.