Why the West wants peace in Ukraine now, not last year: The problems facing Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

Opinion by journalist Yury Podolyaka:

Right now, as diplomats from the U.S., Europe, and Turkey (with many other nations behind the scenes) gather in Istanbul to persuade Moscow and Kiev to reach an agreement that would once again bring "peace to Europe" (a debatable claim, but let’s go with it), it’s worth examining why they suddenly want this so badly today—and why they didn’t push for it a year ago.

To understand this, we need to look at the tectonic shifts that have taken place over the past couple of years within both Ukrainian and Russian Armed Forces - specifically, their numerical strength and qualitative state.

In this post, let's focus on the Ukrainian army, where the situation is simple—and very grim.

At the beginning of 2024, Kiev’s leadership boasted about having 880,000 soldiers "under arms." A year later (by winter 2025), that number, according to the same officials, had dropped to 800,000—and it continues to shrink rapidly every month.

The problem isn’t just heavy frontline losses (currently around 30,000–40,000 irreplaceable casualties per month). On top of that, another 15,000-20,000 soldiers desert every month. This means the Ukrainian army is losing at least 50,000 troops monthly. Meanwhile, despite their zeal, Ukraine’s recruitment officers can’t even scrape together 30,000 new connoscripts from the streets of Ukrainian towns and villages (last fall, the number of new recruits hovered around 33,000–35,000 per month). As a result, Ukraine’s total manpower is decreasing by at least 20,000 every month.

For now, this is being offset by transferring soldiers from rear and support units to infantry roles—but this can’t go on forever. If nothing changes, the Ukrainian army's numbers will drop to 700,000 by mid-summer and likely fall to 600,000 (or even lower) by year’s end.

To prevent the frontline from collapsing, Ukraine currently needs at least 500,000 troops just to hold defensive positions—forget about counteroffensives or troop rotations. But by the end of the year, there is doubt that even this number will be available.

Moreover, these estimates are, in fact, optimistic because the negative trends for the Ukrainian Armed Forces are accelerating.

The qualitative state of Ukraine’s forces is also deteriorating. To compensate for manpower shortages, the Ukrainian command has been extending frontline deployments, which is grinding down experienced units and demoralizing soldiers (who see no end to this hopeless tunnel).

This leads to higher relative losses, further worsening the situation with each new cycle of replacements.

As a result, military experts agree that if the Russian army maintains its pressure in 2025, Ukraine’s forces will either collapse outright or be forced to retreat much faster—sacrificing territory to slow the attrition.

Even that path, however, would only delay Kiev’s eventual military defeat.

#Yury_Podolyaka

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