Alpha please market update

After dropping below $100k during the recent geopolitical noise, BTC is now back above $106k with strength. Right now, the setup continues to look solid. Nothing has fundamentally changed from previous weeks, and my base case scenario remains the same.

-Geopolitical fears turned out to be mostly noise (as usual).

-On a longer-term horizon, global liquidity keeps rising, and all signs point toward continued US debt expansion and further debasement.

-Stocks just broke new ATHs, and gold continues to be strong. I expect BTC, which is typically a laggard, to follow.

-Weekly BTC chart looks prime.

-We also had a strong week of inflows into ETFs and further confirmation of TradFi’s growing appetite for crypto.

Indeed, one interesting point to note this week is that Ric Edelman, founder of the $300B investment advisory firm Edelman Financial Engines (serving over 1.3 million clients), released a post recommending a 40% crypto allocation for aggressive investors and 10% for conservative ones. He also said that owning is no longer speculative, but not owning it is. This is a clear signal that TraFi is starting to take crypto very seriously.

Other things to note:

-We have seen a recent wave of new announcements around stock tokenization this week. Notably, xStocksFi, which is tokenizing stocks on Solana and has integrated with both Kraken and Kamino (a big milestone for Kamino imo). Robinhood also announced that tokenized versions of US listed stocks and ETFs will be available to EU users and issued on Arbitrum. Unit has also hinted at similar plans.

Crypto is going mainstream. The vision we once had of trading the S&P 500 and every stock on-chain is now becoming a reality. At the same time, this will bring more competition for alts, as users will soon have access to a broader range of tokenized stocks with real revenues and business models. But at the same time, it is a major step forward for DeFi. We are winning.

-SOL ETFs are also coming. This is definitely something to watch, as it could be an interesting catalyst for SOL. It will be worth seeing what kind of appetite those new ETFs get. I hope they gain decent traction and makes some noise on Wall Street, as that could provide a strong signal that more crypto ETFs are on the way.

-On the macro side, we have Powell speaking today. It will be interesting to see what he has to say. This could provide some hints about the next FOMC meeting. Otherwise, the main thing to watch remains the job data on Friday (unemployment rate, jobless claims, nonfarm payrolls). But nothing too meaningful to be expected imo.

3 Alpha Apps

You know the drill: each week, I bring you 3 early, interesting, high-upside apps/protocols. This week, we cover:

• My favorite Bitcoin L2, with some special alpha (only 10 codes available)
• The top DEX on HyperEVM (1 month left in the points program)
• An all-in-one crypto wallet and exchange

I would not fade this.

https://www.alphaplease.com/p/3-alpha-apps-the-bitcoin-l2-im-bullish

Now this is a proper ATH worth celebrating.

16 years of Bitcoin and everyone that has ever bought is in profit.

This is probably the first time BTC has been my largest position at a new ATH.

I simply don't think there is a better SOV asset out there which can still grow tremendously (yes, I'm now a boomer).

BTC is the life raft everyone needs to protect themselves against reckless government spending and unsustainable sovereign debt.

Up only.

Alpha please Monday market update

In the expression “slowly, then all at once,” it feels like we may be entering the “all at once” phase of the cycle. Last week, BTC broke to new ATHs, crossing the $120k level after a long period of consolidation. With it comes renewed heat in the market. It’s risk-on season.

Here are some of the key catalysts I see for crypto in the second half of the year:

-Macro remains a tailwind. The outlook looks good, and the passing of the “big beautiful bill” reinforces the view that Trump is committing to solving the debt problem through growth. This implies continued liquidity expansion with pro-growth policy (US will not follow restrictive policy and the money printer stays on). Historically, this is a strong setup for risk assets, at least in the mid term (before potential backlash of such policy).

-On top of that, there are rumors Powell may soon resign. If that happens, and a Trump "yes-man” replaces Powell, the easing cycle and rate cuts could accelerate even faster.

-Geopolitical tensions, which were previously seen as a major risk, now seem to be under control (at least for the time being).

-US equities and gold are at ATHs and continue to trend higher.

-Crypto stocks are hot right now ($COIN, $CRCL, $HOOD, etc.). This is bringing back a lot of attention and capital into the space.

-More crypto ETFs are likely coming (with staking). Plus, efforts are being made on the regulatory side to make the listing process simpler and faster. This could open the door for more crypto products and bring a passive demand flow for some quality alts.

-Strategic reserve corporate play is also growing fast and represents another tailwind. Specifically, SBET and ETH treasury companies are hot right now. This can be a positive catalyst for ETH. And if ETH is doing well, that is usually good for alts.

-Now, in terms of price action, the BTC chart looks really clean and bullish on the weekly. We have broken a clear zone of resistance after a tight range, into new highs, with strong momentum. This is usually a good setup r/r wise.

-Also worth noting that BTC dominance seems near a local high with some signs of a potential reversal, after being “up only” since the beginning of the cycle. This coincides with a renewed interest in alts, with significant capital flowing back into the market (the Pump ICO selling out in minutes is another clear signal to me of excitement). It might be time for some quality alts to start outperforming BTC.

Of course, there are still potential risks along the way. Nothing is ever all white or black. So remember that at all times, risk management is your priority. But my general view is that for now, the r/r for crypto is skewed to the upside.

Now is the time to lock in, have strong convictions, and let your thesis play out.

High stablecoin yield + LIMINAL, UNIT & HYPE airdrop

Gonna shill Liminal once again.

One of the best DeFi apps I've used (on any chain), so slick.

Currently earning 59% on USDC (PUMP funding rate) plus making myself eligible for LIMINAL, UNIT & HYPE airdrops.

Here's my ref link if you didn't managed to get in yet:

https://liminal.money/join/AYLO

We absorbed $9B of an ancient Bitcoin whale's selling, we barely dipped, and Saylor wasn't buying in that period.

For a long period of time Saylor was our only big buyer. There is now a very strong bid for Bitcoin from ETFs, institutions, and DATs. Saylor is going to be continuously adding fuel to that fire.

Extremely bullish.

Some of the bullish catalysts ahead for crypto:

• SEC's "Project Crypto" - bringing US markets onchain and allowing crypto builders to innovate with clear rules is not priced in
• US citizens being able to invest in crypto using their 401(K)s - big source of new passive flows (401(k) plans alone represent $7 trillion)
• Digital Asset Treasury bubble (or ponzi - choose your word) growing much bigger
• Global interest rate cuts still to come, most notably from the Fed (traders pricing in a cut in September now) - the UK cut again today
• GENIUS Act makes USD-backed stablecoins fully legal & regulated in the U.S, unlocking massive institutional adoption
• On top of that, price action is looking like it wants to break higher

Bull market is not over.

Higher.

This is the first time all cycle that BTC.D hasn't rocketed back up after seeing a steep decline.

That 50 week EMA has been respected since early 2023, and its looking like it wants to fall through it now.

ETH treasury companies largely responsible as they are looking to push ETH through that $4K level asap.

Algos all firing on alts as a result and taking the signal.

TOTAL crypto market cap is now in price discovery.

We have an estimated ~27B across treasury companies ready to buy ETH.

The US regulatory bodies and government are completely behind and pushing crypto and onchain adoption.

We are moving into the mania phase of the cycle driven by institutional fomo.

Don't be afraid to dream a little bigger.

Alpha Wednesday Market Update

Animal spirits are definitely back.

CPI was one of the main sources of uncertainty in recent weeks. Now that it’s out of the way (and with no negative surprises), the path ahead looks much clearer. The total crypto market cap is now in price discovery mode.

As I said last week, we have plenty of catalysts ahead that point to bullish times ahead (check the latest TG post). We are moving into the mania phase of the cycle driven by institutional FOMO.

This is the time in the cycle where you simply let your thesis play out without getting too drunk at the party.

BTC.D has also broken down, supporting wider risk-taking on alts with strong fundamentals. The fact that US equities are also pumping reinforces this view.

That said, I still expect some big perps flushes along the way, which could offer opportunities to scoop up stink bids (worth setting a few).

Regardless, spot and chill is the way.

Don’t force trades. Don’t try to buy and sell every move. Don’t risk it all in one position.

Remember: you are not as smart as you think you are (it is just that we are in a full-fledged bull market).

Respect your risk management, go touch some grass, and don’t forget that at some point, the risk/reward of your positions will no longer be asymmetric and it will be time to start taking profits.

In the meantime, here are some of the tokens I am watching:

- BTC: No-brainer. BTC is still the king with compelling upside potential ahead. The thesis for Tradfi is clear, there are steady ETF inflows, and I expect that when pension funds + 401(k)s get access to crypto, BTC will likely be the first direct beneficiary.

- ETH: Sentiment was dead a few months ago, but now it seems that all eyes are on ETH. And rightly so. We have seen a complete 180 shift in the thesis: the foundation is actively turning things around. We had a huge wave of inflows into the ETF. On top of that, Ethereum has found its “Michael Saylor” with several DATs raising huge sums to fuel a passive bid. As long as that continues, the upside potential is clear. ATH is about to be broken and from here it is price discovery.

- SOL: SOL has been lagging a bit, but it seems to be starting to move. From a fundamental perspective, it remains the L1 I am most bullish on. Further, while everyone is currently pricing in the ETH DAT play, I think the next logical expression of this is that, at some point, SOL will get its Tom Lee + DAT moment (think a billy+ raise to buy SOL just to kickstart things). In a way, I feel the best beta to ETH DAT might actually be SOL. Plus, it is going to have its spot ETF soon. Some SOL betas are also in an interesting value spot right now.

- HYPE: There is no other coin like HYPE. The first one to benefit from non-stop buying pressure fueled by strong revenue, and I still think it is cheap here relative to the fundamentals. There are plenty of interesting catalysts coming (HIP-3 will unlock a lot of new use cases). Price hasn’t caught up to the growth yet.

- ENA: Ethena is a project in a league of its own. I see it as the CRCL play on repeat. USDe supply is going up only and the combo of crypto bull market + rate coming down will also act as a strong catalyst for further growth. Do not fade the ENA train.

- PENDLE: This is another interesting one. Tier-1 team and top protocol that keeps making new ATH in all its metrics. Plus the launch of Boros is another catalyst

- LINK: Chainlink has a unique moat in crypto and stands to benefit from all of the world of many chains (public, private and L1 stable chains) + they have officially launched the Chainlink Reserve. Bullish.

- FLUID: Not a lot of mindshare around it (which is positive) but Fluid is slowly taking over DEX market share on Ethereum and TA is very bullish. I really like that one.

-MNT: Very clearly becoming Bybits coin and not sure CT have noticed. Price action is also looking strong. I think we could expect more positive surprise ahead.

Longer form piece looking at the arguments for a Four-Year Cycle Top vs Extended Cycle to 2026.

"The four-year cycle pattern is the strongest argument for a 2025 top - it's worked three times and simplicity often wins. But institutional market structure changes, Fed transition dynamics, and missing euphoria signals suggest this cycle could extend into 2026."

https://x.com/alpha_pls/status/1958153018194452713

Random thoughts on the market:

Bitcoin has been weak recently. It’s in a downtrend on the daily, though still intact on higher timeframes. It's possible the low could be in already, but gut feeling says it probably isn't (although obviously I don't know, and it's impossible to predict lows).

The 200D MA sits around $101k, a level where I’d expect many bulls to step in. Max pain could mean wicking below that. The last two times we made new ATHs this cycle, BTC tested that level and briefly traded under it. Not saying it must happen again, but history suggests we shouldn’t be surprised. Capitulation often precedes the next leg higher.

ETH looks set for some mean reversion to the 20W EMA. Nothing bearish about this, it just had a massive run. I’d expect new highs after a healthy pullback.

SOL remains the strongest of the majors. It’s become a bit contrarian, with more hate than usual, but several catalysts are lining up: upcoming DAT companies likely being frontrun, staking ETFs on the horizon, and SOL/ETH back at late 2023 levels, making it attractive again. Onchain narratives and activity continue to cluster on Solana, and even CT’s sudden obsession with TCGs (buying Pokémon cards on Solana) reinforces that everything continues to happen on Solana this cycle.

Hyperliquid posted a new revenue ATH in August - $106.4M versus July’s $86.6M. The growth trajectory is extraordinary, and I still see it as undervalued here.

It’s no surprise Ethena looks stronger than most large caps heading into September, with multiple catalysts: Converge chain launch, ENA fee switch, and StablecoinX listing on Nasdaq. Ethena directly benefits more from rate cuts than any other protocol, as risk-free yields fall, Ethena’s yield becomes increasingly attractive to entities rotating out of treasuries.

The best mobile app for trading Hyperliquid perps is Mass.

They are one of the top earning apps from builder codes so far.

You will liquidity mine MASS + earn the HYPE airdrop (if/when that happens, I think when personally), so it’s a good option if you are trading on Hyperliquid anyway, or want an option for trading on mobile.

My lore is that I actually worked on this product in 2023, and now many of the ideas from back then have come to life now. You can also buy stocks/indexes, lend/borrow, trade spot, on/offramp with a bank account in your name. The UI/UX is goated. Completely non-custodial of course.

I’m working with them again, and negotiated a cool deal for you, if you download the app with my ref link you will earn double MASS tokens for the first month.

These are real pre-TGE tokens, not points.

Very much worth downloading and seeing if you like the feel of the app.

https://download.mass.money/ref/UZVS2Aw27ALMxww5VNwnNz8fyEn

At the very least, I think the S-tier HyperEVM airdrops will be huge.

Saying this as someone who received a large JTO airdrop, and the set up seems similar (still a lot of people fading).

I wrote up my airdrop tier list & why I'm bullish HyperEVM:

https://www.alphaplease.com/p/my-hyperliquid-airdrop-tier-list

Alpha Friday Market Update

It’s been a while since my last update.

On the HTF the setup hasn’t really changed for me. The macro setup remains supportive and recent price action suggests momentum in crypto is picking up again with BTC breaking its past ATH. Gold and US equities continue to be well oriented which is another positive sign. I think there is a very low probability that BTC doesn’t catch up to Gold’s performance this year.

The small BTC correction we had over the past few days wasn’t unexpected. I attribute this mostly to MMs anticipating the breakout to flush overleveraged longs. The real move will come after that imo.

As well, it is worth remembering that all PA usually happens within a short time frame with explosive moves. I expect we could see something similar again. Be ready.

From here, 150k is likely psychological resistance, and if we got an explosive leg to match the one prior than ~220k could be a stretch target.

A clear break below the current BTC range would make me reassess my bullish take. But for now, that’s not the case.

Now, If BTC does break higher, I’d expect quality alts to follow.

Speaking of that, here are a few ones worth watching:

-SOL: Still has a fair bit of upside. If you’ve been following me, you already know I’m a long-term Solana bull, so no need to repeat myself.

-HYPE: Same story here. Still feels undervalued relative to fundamentals. It remains the king of perp DEXs, and with a real ecosystem forming around it. I expect the first wave of quality airdrops from HyperEVM projects to print and put back the spotlight on HYPE.

-ENA: Another one that deserves a mention. A top stablecoin product that will only get juicer with the upcoming rate cut cycle. Imo, Ethena also has one of the best distribution strategies in all of crypto (stablecoin as a service) with strong and growing revenue.

-MNT: Happy to have banged on about MNT non stop for the last few months. Second biggest winner in the last 30 days amongst the top 100 coins. It might be a bit overstretched in the short-term, but the long-term synergy between Bybit and Mantle is huge and still not fully priced in imo. Let’s see.

-ZEC: Lot of hype on privacy / SOV solutions right now and ZCash is undoubtedly the king here. I am personally bullish. One way to see this trade: think about the amount of BTC you wish you had bought and hold and buy that amount in ZEC (you should be comfortable losing this as well). Good take from flow here.

-Futarchy coins are also having their moment. Still early and niche, but the momentum is there. Worth keeping them on your watchlist.

Well, things have changed rather rapidly. I truly hope everyone is ok.

I see the merits of both arguments right now.

Bear case for me is that charts on everything apart from Bitcoin (which is also hanging on for dear life), and a few of the top majors, look destroyed.

We may have contagion and bodies that need to float to the surface, and that simply takes time.

We were struggling to find buyers for alt coins, and crypto native capital just got carried out, which was a large part of the bid.

Hardly a great advert for prospective new buyers to see alt coins go down 75% in 15 minutes. These aren't serious assets, albeit there are some strong projects amongst them.

There are regulatory questions that presumably get asked now based on some of the risk management failings of crypto's top exchanges.

Bull case is that we have purged all leverage, and we have completely reset from a positioning point of view.

We have seen a divergence amongst the top liquid majors, which aren't trading that far off where they were before this market crash. This suggests the industry is maturing. These assets are different from the rest, and we are getting closer to something resembling a crypto mag 7.

A huge random flash crash could be explained as more of an infrastructure failing than anything else doesn't necessarily warrant a full bear market.

Assets with institutional flows are not reliant on crypto native capital, and they should be correlated with the business cycle/macro, so if that hasn't topped then should expect further upside.

On a long time horizon this event will pass, as it always does, and the best crypto assets will rise higher.

I still haven't seen a post mortem on exactly what happened yesterday, and what events combined to cause those liquidation cascades, so kind of need that information to have proper feel on where we are at.

I still lean towards this cycle not being done, but I've got my eyes open, and I will reassess my view rapidly based on the PA over the next few weeks.

First up I would expect we get a mechanical bounce, and then will need to see if we get follow through.

I'm not a retarded bull, but I aim to continue being a bull for as long as I can justify it. I very much want to protect what I've made so far this cycle, and have been doing that, and suggest everyone do the same if you have capital you don't want to give back.

Learning to be happy with the meat of the move, rather than trying to sell the top or buying the bottom will see you vastly outperform everyone in this space over the long run.

Humility should be the cornerstone of your trading/investing strategy always.

The Bitcoin bulls vs bears battle goes on...

Almost everyone is desperate for some sort of resolution one way or another...

From a technical perspective the bulls are hanging on, and continuing to defend $100k, and HTF trend does still remain intact, although it is clearly a weakening trend (RSI).

This remains notable due to how much selling has occurred over a long period of time. It's still quite impressive that buyers have absorbed this onslaught, and BTC would have certainly cratered much earlier in previous cycles.

There is a lot of macro cope that the bulls can also point to for support (qe, rate cuts, liquidity with gov opening up blah blah), a lot of it is certainly valid, but obviously we've seen environments in the past where equities went up whilst BTC was in a bear market (2019).

However, there is more than enough for bears to get stuck into when they look at the HTF PA. No real bounce yet, hovering at the 50 week MA, and developing monthly candle looking terrible.

65% of all the USD invested in Bitcoin has a cost basis above $95k, so below that level you likely start to see a lot more selling, as nothing motivates sellers like being under water, or not wanting to lose any more unrealised gains.

If you are a bull then we are as close to invalidation as you can really get. The longer we linger just above $100k the more nervous you should get.

That being said, with how the Bitcoin PA and how long distribution has been going on, I really don't think the bear would be as vicious, and many hoping to buy drastically lower will end up disappointed imo.

Very difficult market right now. All you can do is create your plans, and execute when you get the triggers that tell you to cut/add.

Gm gm, will do a longer update this week. Clearly the bearish scenario played out, and we are more than likely in bear market rally territory.

I've seen that HyENA finally launched. Think it's a no brainer to give it a try (long list of reasons):

• Because your collateral is USDe, you can earn the underlying USDe yield on top of your trading profits (capital efficiency bro)
• Boosted 12%+ APY on your USDe for the first month (only while a qualifying long position is open, and only if it remains open for more than one hour)
• Built on HIP-3, offers the same fast execution, deep liquidity, and low latency as the main Hyperliquid exchange
• Fee rebates if you migrate in the next 7 days
• 100M weekly points (there will be no HyENA token) = future Ethena airdrop
• Depositing into HLPe vault earns USDe Yield + Trading Fees/PnL + HyENA Points
• Built by ethena & Based

It's invite only right now - link below will get you in:

https://app.hyena.trade/ref/AYLO

Market update

I go back and forth on how crypto plays out in 2026. We are in a fascinating standoff.

On one side, 4 year cycle maxis argue the top is in. They point to broken market structure and heavy whale selling, a consistent cycle top indicator. They also note that mid-term election years (2014, 2018, 2022) have historically been brutal for crypto, often marking the deepest part of the bear.

"Trade the market you have, not the market you want."

On the other side, the macro crowd argues new highs are imminent. Their thesis: Trump’s Fed will run the economy hot to win the midterms, liquidity will improve, and the Russell 2000 is breaking out etc.

There is merit to both, but I still believe Bitcoin’s specific supply dynamics (OG whales selling) currently override general macro tailwinds.

My base case currently is a wide, frustrating range. BTC might not visit the extreme lows frothy bears expect, but whales will likely cap any impulse moves near $100k.

Yesterday's Fed meeting has sort of strengthened this for me. While we got a 25bps cut, the dot plot signalled only ONE cut for 2026.

Equities can survive on earnings growth, but crypto needs excess liquidity (debasement).

The form of QE we have now is the Fed buying T-bills just to keep the banking plumbing (repo market) from seizing up as they normalize.

My understanding is that they are expanding the balance sheet just enough to keep the repo market from breaking (RMP), but they aren't flooding the system with the kind of excess liquidity that chases high-beta risk.

Of course I think this is still part of the wider debasement trend, but I don't think it is meaningful for price action in the short term.

The liquidity hose is not turning on fully in 2026, at least not until Hassett takes the chair, which is midway through the year.

Still expecting that we are in the dead cat bounce phase for BTC followed by stagnation, which is supported by the technical picture I see in the chart.

As always, if the fact change and a proper white swan appeared, I'll be more than happy to change my mind.

Anyways, that's just my opinion (and I am probably redacted).