Alpha Tuesday Market Update

BTC finally broke its ATH last week with strong momentum and flirted with the $112k level. This was my expected scenario, although it came a bit faster than anticipated. What stands out is that this breakout happened with little hype on the timeline, and while US equities were correcting. So BTC is showing further signs of decoupling, along with strong momentum, and not much excitement. This makes the breakout even more significant.

While it is totally normal and healthy that we’ve retraced a bit from the ATH, I think the trend is set for now. We’re halfway through Q2, and after a rough Q1, we can expect more positive quarters ahead. For me, the real question isn’t if we bounce, but how long it lasts. Of course, this will depend on many factors, especially the macro landscape. We’ll need to adapt as things evolve, but for now, it’s a good time to stay bullish and not get distracted by day-to-day noise.

Zooming in, we don’t have a big macro week ahead. ISM, PMI, and unemployment rate are coming up, but I don’t expect them to move markets much. The market has its eyes elsewhere.

For now, I expect BTC to continue leading a bit longer before a potential local top in dominance. That could open the door for some quality alts to trend hard. SOL, HYPE, GRASS, ENA and a few others are still the main alts on my watchlist.

Anyway, my playbook is simple: I am already well positioned in my chosen alts + BTC, so for now, I am not buying, not selling, just surfing the second wave of this bull market and adapting to things as they evolve.

Unlocks of note in June (data from DefiLlama):

According to DeFiLlama, the total upcoming unlock value in June only over $1B.

Here are some that caught my eye:

$TRUMP: 0.25% of float ($6.2M) - Daily
$TIA: 0.15% of float ($2.5M) - Daily
$OP: 1.94% of float ($22M) - MAY 30 (Frequency: Monthly)
$STRK: 1.14% of float ($5.8M) - MAY 30 (Frequency: Monthly)
$DYDX: 1.04% of float ($5.4M) - MAY 31
$PRIME: 36.65% of float ($72.2M) - JUNE 01
$SUI: 1.66% of float ($203M) - JUNE 02 (Frequency: Monthly)
$CETUS: 1.15% of float ($1.3M) - JUNE 03 (Frequency: Monthly)
$IMX: 1.9% of float ($22.3M) - JUNE 06 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ENS: 2.82% of float ($22M) - JUNE 08 (Frequency: Monthly)
$FLARE: 3.01% of float ($37M) - JUNE 09 (Frequency : Monthly)
$APT: 1.77% of float ($60.2M) - JUNE 12 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ARB: 1.91% of float ($37.5M) - JUNE 15 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ZK: 190% of float ($431.6M) - JUNE 17
$MELANIA: 5.61% of float ($7.7M) - JUNE 20 (Frequency: Monthly)
$REZ:12.06% of float ($4.5M) - JUNE 24 (Frequency: Monthly)
$BLAST: 144% of float ($132.2M) - JUNE 26
$AXL: 1.63% of float ($5.3M) - JUNE 27 (Frequency: Monthly)

Starting a new series focused on apps.

Being active onchain & trying new stuff has always paid off for me.

Each week I’ll cover 3 apps I think are worth your time - early, interesting, and ideally high-upside 🫡

https://www.alphaplease.com/p/3-alpha-apps-top-play-on-hyperliquid

Alpha please market update

After BTC's strong recovery run from the $75k level to $111k, we had a little pullback in the last two weeks back to the $100k levels. This was a normal and healthy correction that allowed the market to cool down a bit.

Now, the setup looks strong again. BTC is showing signs of strength on shorter time frames, and momentum seems to be returning. Let’s see if this is just a move to the high of the range before another pullback, or the start of a new wave that pushes BTC beyond its previous ATH.

In any case, the longer-term setup is still unchanged on BTC, imo. For now, the question is just whether the consolidation takes a bit longer or not.

A few other things to note:

Recent clashes between Trump and Musk were not on my bingo card. Without getting too deep into the drama, it seems it started when Musk publicly raised concerns about a new bill that he though was really bad for the U.S. deficit. While this escalated into a bigger fight, the main takeaway for me is that: 1. U.S. deficits are a real and growing problem, 2. For now, there’s a clear divergence between Trump’s talk and actual plans to address it, and 3. One of the few hopes for tacklingthis issue (Elon Musk) seems to have left the ship. Ramifications of this can be big but ultimately, I think it reinforces the structural bull case for BTC.

Last week, we also had the long-awaited Circle IPO. It was a great success, and the amount of hype around it was unreal. The price reached $120 on the second day of trading. A 4x from the IPO offer price of $31. I think this tells us a lot about TradFi's current appetite for crypto and the potential of stablecoins.

Macro for the week:

It’s a relatively quiet week on the macro front. The main events to watch are the CPI release on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. The next major events to follow closely will be the FOMC meeting on June 17–18. Interest rates are still expected to remain unchanged, but I think Powell’s tone will set the tone for what to expect in terms of the Fed Funds Rate for the next part of the year. To be followed.

Another week, here's three more apps I think you should check out:

• One of the best credit cards in DeFi
• HyperEVM app you should be farming
• InfoFi project w/ reward system live

https://www.alphaplease.com/p/3-alpha-apps-the-best-defi-credit

Finding it impossible to be bearish on crypto (yes, short term Summer chop probably, but zoom out).

A few thoughts:

The U.S. Senate just passed the GENIUS Act, the first comprehensive federal legislation for fiat-backed stablecoins.

Stablecoins already power the largest real-world use case in crypto:

• $250B+ live onchain
• Instant global settlement
• < $0.01 tx fees
• Open API for money

Now, it gets a legal foundation to go global. It's huge and not to be faded.

This lays the groundwork for trillions in stablecoin settlement volume. It's huge for DeFi.

Every bank, fintech, and payments processor now has a regulated, programmable digital dollar they can actually use.

The biggest bottleneck was legal clarity, which is now gone.

But stablecoins aren’t just for payments. They’re the gateway to speculation, as all the degens on here are aware.

They’re the liquidity base layer of the entire crypto economy.

At the same time, regulators are quietly easing capital rules for U.S. banks.

That frees up bank balance sheets.

More capital = more lending
More lending = lower rates
Lower rates = more risk appetite
More liquidity = stronger BTC tailwinds

BTC thrives when liquidity expands and stablecoins amplify that liquidity. TradFi + Crypto are now structurally aligned for it.

So in summary we have:

• Stablecoins getting federal clarity (DeFi to benefit)
• Banks regaining liquidity
• Borrowing costs likely heading lower
• BTC acting like a macro hedge with clear investor demand (I haven't even mentioned the BTC company treasury ponzi bubble that is growing)

Being bearish here requires me to fade regulatory clarity, institutional momentum, and macro tailwinds.

Find the right coins, have a little patience, and enjoy your Summer.

3 new apps for you to try this week (all pre-token):

• Let an AI agent buy Bitcoin for you
• Another Hyperliquid app to maximize your HyperEVM exposure
• Earn fixed yield on Solana

Full breakdown in my latest newsletter:

https://www.alphaplease.com/p/3-alpha-apps-buying-bitcoin-with

Seeing BTC hold extremely well amidst this geopolitical shitshow reinforces my conviction that the times ahead will be positive for crypto. In my mind, BTC, HYPE, SOL, and a few others remain top assets to hold going forward.

However, as I have said time and again, we will continue to see creative destruction forces at play in the market. Speculative premiums that many crypto projects once enjoyed is a thing of the past.

The market is distinguishing between good protocols with bad tokens (no value capture, high inflation) and good protocols with good tokens (value capture, low inflation), as it should.

Our collective understanding of tokens, valuations and value capture has improved because we have more data having seen so many tokens trend to zero.

The bar is much higher now than in the past. Even more so when you consider that we have crypto stocks that big money can easily ape in to, and they are doing well ($COIN, $CRCL, and co).

And there are no new retail flows to bid tokens that don't make sense, like the past. Yes, we are retail, but we are just a hot ball of PvP money.

There is no exit liquidity for vapour.

It is a great time to keep clicking and stay curious. Here are 3 more apps for you to try this week:

• Real yield on Hyperliquid using delta-netural strategy (limited invite codes, act fast)
• Tokenized time primitives
• A top-notch Solana debit card

Check out my latest newsletter for all the alpha:

https://alphapls.substack.com/p/3-alpha-apps-real-yield-on-hyperliquid

Alpha please market update

After dropping below $100k during the recent geopolitical noise, BTC is now back above $106k with strength. Right now, the setup continues to look solid. Nothing has fundamentally changed from previous weeks, and my base case scenario remains the same.

-Geopolitical fears turned out to be mostly noise (as usual).

-On a longer-term horizon, global liquidity keeps rising, and all signs point toward continued US debt expansion and further debasement.

-Stocks just broke new ATHs, and gold continues to be strong. I expect BTC, which is typically a laggard, to follow.

-Weekly BTC chart looks prime.

-We also had a strong week of inflows into ETFs and further confirmation of TradFi’s growing appetite for crypto.

Indeed, one interesting point to note this week is that Ric Edelman, founder of the $300B investment advisory firm Edelman Financial Engines (serving over 1.3 million clients), released a post recommending a 40% crypto allocation for aggressive investors and 10% for conservative ones. He also said that owning is no longer speculative, but not owning it is. This is a clear signal that TraFi is starting to take crypto very seriously.

Other things to note:

-We have seen a recent wave of new announcements around stock tokenization this week. Notably, xStocksFi, which is tokenizing stocks on Solana and has integrated with both Kraken and Kamino (a big milestone for Kamino imo). Robinhood also announced that tokenized versions of US listed stocks and ETFs will be available to EU users and issued on Arbitrum. Unit has also hinted at similar plans.

Crypto is going mainstream. The vision we once had of trading the S&P 500 and every stock on-chain is now becoming a reality. At the same time, this will bring more competition for alts, as users will soon have access to a broader range of tokenized stocks with real revenues and business models. But at the same time, it is a major step forward for DeFi. We are winning.

-SOL ETFs are also coming. This is definitely something to watch, as it could be an interesting catalyst for SOL. It will be worth seeing what kind of appetite those new ETFs get. I hope they gain decent traction and makes some noise on Wall Street, as that could provide a strong signal that more crypto ETFs are on the way.

-On the macro side, we have Powell speaking today. It will be interesting to see what he has to say. This could provide some hints about the next FOMC meeting. Otherwise, the main thing to watch remains the job data on Friday (unemployment rate, jobless claims, nonfarm payrolls). But nothing too meaningful to be expected imo.

3 Alpha Apps

You know the drill: each week, I bring you 3 early, interesting, high-upside apps/protocols. This week, we cover:

• My favorite Bitcoin L2, with some special alpha (only 10 codes available)
• The top DEX on HyperEVM (1 month left in the points program)
• An all-in-one crypto wallet and exchange

I would not fade this.

https://www.alphaplease.com/p/3-alpha-apps-the-bitcoin-l2-im-bullish

Now this is a proper ATH worth celebrating.

16 years of Bitcoin and everyone that has ever bought is in profit.

This is probably the first time BTC has been my largest position at a new ATH.

I simply don't think there is a better SOV asset out there which can still grow tremendously (yes, I'm now a boomer).

BTC is the life raft everyone needs to protect themselves against reckless government spending and unsustainable sovereign debt.

Up only.

Alpha please Monday market update

In the expression “slowly, then all at once,” it feels like we may be entering the “all at once” phase of the cycle. Last week, BTC broke to new ATHs, crossing the $120k level after a long period of consolidation. With it comes renewed heat in the market. It’s risk-on season.

Here are some of the key catalysts I see for crypto in the second half of the year:

-Macro remains a tailwind. The outlook looks good, and the passing of the “big beautiful bill” reinforces the view that Trump is committing to solving the debt problem through growth. This implies continued liquidity expansion with pro-growth policy (US will not follow restrictive policy and the money printer stays on). Historically, this is a strong setup for risk assets, at least in the mid term (before potential backlash of such policy).

-On top of that, there are rumors Powell may soon resign. If that happens, and a Trump "yes-man” replaces Powell, the easing cycle and rate cuts could accelerate even faster.

-Geopolitical tensions, which were previously seen as a major risk, now seem to be under control (at least for the time being).

-US equities and gold are at ATHs and continue to trend higher.

-Crypto stocks are hot right now ($COIN, $CRCL, $HOOD, etc.). This is bringing back a lot of attention and capital into the space.

-More crypto ETFs are likely coming (with staking). Plus, efforts are being made on the regulatory side to make the listing process simpler and faster. This could open the door for more crypto products and bring a passive demand flow for some quality alts.

-Strategic reserve corporate play is also growing fast and represents another tailwind. Specifically, SBET and ETH treasury companies are hot right now. This can be a positive catalyst for ETH. And if ETH is doing well, that is usually good for alts.

-Now, in terms of price action, the BTC chart looks really clean and bullish on the weekly. We have broken a clear zone of resistance after a tight range, into new highs, with strong momentum. This is usually a good setup r/r wise.

-Also worth noting that BTC dominance seems near a local high with some signs of a potential reversal, after being “up only” since the beginning of the cycle. This coincides with a renewed interest in alts, with significant capital flowing back into the market (the Pump ICO selling out in minutes is another clear signal to me of excitement). It might be time for some quality alts to start outperforming BTC.

Of course, there are still potential risks along the way. Nothing is ever all white or black. So remember that at all times, risk management is your priority. But my general view is that for now, the r/r for crypto is skewed to the upside.

Now is the time to lock in, have strong convictions, and let your thesis play out.

High stablecoin yield + LIMINAL, UNIT & HYPE airdrop

Gonna shill Liminal once again.

One of the best DeFi apps I've used (on any chain), so slick.

Currently earning 59% on USDC (PUMP funding rate) plus making myself eligible for LIMINAL, UNIT & HYPE airdrops.

Here's my ref link if you didn't managed to get in yet:

https://liminal.money/join/AYLO

We absorbed $9B of an ancient Bitcoin whale's selling, we barely dipped, and Saylor wasn't buying in that period.

For a long period of time Saylor was our only big buyer. There is now a very strong bid for Bitcoin from ETFs, institutions, and DATs. Saylor is going to be continuously adding fuel to that fire.

Extremely bullish.

Some of the bullish catalysts ahead for crypto:

• SEC's "Project Crypto" - bringing US markets onchain and allowing crypto builders to innovate with clear rules is not priced in
• US citizens being able to invest in crypto using their 401(K)s - big source of new passive flows (401(k) plans alone represent $7 trillion)
• Digital Asset Treasury bubble (or ponzi - choose your word) growing much bigger
• Global interest rate cuts still to come, most notably from the Fed (traders pricing in a cut in September now) - the UK cut again today
• GENIUS Act makes USD-backed stablecoins fully legal & regulated in the U.S, unlocking massive institutional adoption
• On top of that, price action is looking like it wants to break higher

Bull market is not over.

Higher.

This is the first time all cycle that BTC.D hasn't rocketed back up after seeing a steep decline.

That 50 week EMA has been respected since early 2023, and its looking like it wants to fall through it now.

ETH treasury companies largely responsible as they are looking to push ETH through that $4K level asap.

Algos all firing on alts as a result and taking the signal.

TOTAL crypto market cap is now in price discovery.

We have an estimated ~27B across treasury companies ready to buy ETH.

The US regulatory bodies and government are completely behind and pushing crypto and onchain adoption.

We are moving into the mania phase of the cycle driven by institutional fomo.

Don't be afraid to dream a little bigger.

Alpha Wednesday Market Update

Animal spirits are definitely back.

CPI was one of the main sources of uncertainty in recent weeks. Now that it’s out of the way (and with no negative surprises), the path ahead looks much clearer. The total crypto market cap is now in price discovery mode.

As I said last week, we have plenty of catalysts ahead that point to bullish times ahead (check the latest TG post). We are moving into the mania phase of the cycle driven by institutional FOMO.

This is the time in the cycle where you simply let your thesis play out without getting too drunk at the party.

BTC.D has also broken down, supporting wider risk-taking on alts with strong fundamentals. The fact that US equities are also pumping reinforces this view.

That said, I still expect some big perps flushes along the way, which could offer opportunities to scoop up stink bids (worth setting a few).

Regardless, spot and chill is the way.

Don’t force trades. Don’t try to buy and sell every move. Don’t risk it all in one position.

Remember: you are not as smart as you think you are (it is just that we are in a full-fledged bull market).

Respect your risk management, go touch some grass, and don’t forget that at some point, the risk/reward of your positions will no longer be asymmetric and it will be time to start taking profits.

In the meantime, here are some of the tokens I am watching:

- BTC: No-brainer. BTC is still the king with compelling upside potential ahead. The thesis for Tradfi is clear, there are steady ETF inflows, and I expect that when pension funds + 401(k)s get access to crypto, BTC will likely be the first direct beneficiary.

- ETH: Sentiment was dead a few months ago, but now it seems that all eyes are on ETH. And rightly so. We have seen a complete 180 shift in the thesis: the foundation is actively turning things around. We had a huge wave of inflows into the ETF. On top of that, Ethereum has found its “Michael Saylor” with several DATs raising huge sums to fuel a passive bid. As long as that continues, the upside potential is clear. ATH is about to be broken and from here it is price discovery.

- SOL: SOL has been lagging a bit, but it seems to be starting to move. From a fundamental perspective, it remains the L1 I am most bullish on. Further, while everyone is currently pricing in the ETH DAT play, I think the next logical expression of this is that, at some point, SOL will get its Tom Lee + DAT moment (think a billy+ raise to buy SOL just to kickstart things). In a way, I feel the best beta to ETH DAT might actually be SOL. Plus, it is going to have its spot ETF soon. Some SOL betas are also in an interesting value spot right now.

- HYPE: There is no other coin like HYPE. The first one to benefit from non-stop buying pressure fueled by strong revenue, and I still think it is cheap here relative to the fundamentals. There are plenty of interesting catalysts coming (HIP-3 will unlock a lot of new use cases). Price hasn’t caught up to the growth yet.

- ENA: Ethena is a project in a league of its own. I see it as the CRCL play on repeat. USDe supply is going up only and the combo of crypto bull market + rate coming down will also act as a strong catalyst for further growth. Do not fade the ENA train.

- PENDLE: This is another interesting one. Tier-1 team and top protocol that keeps making new ATH in all its metrics. Plus the launch of Boros is another catalyst

- LINK: Chainlink has a unique moat in crypto and stands to benefit from all of the world of many chains (public, private and L1 stable chains) + they have officially launched the Chainlink Reserve. Bullish.

- FLUID: Not a lot of mindshare around it (which is positive) but Fluid is slowly taking over DEX market share on Ethereum and TA is very bullish. I really like that one.

-MNT: Very clearly becoming Bybits coin and not sure CT have noticed. Price action is also looking strong. I think we could expect more positive surprise ahead.

Longer form piece looking at the arguments for a Four-Year Cycle Top vs Extended Cycle to 2026.

"The four-year cycle pattern is the strongest argument for a 2025 top - it's worked three times and simplicity often wins. But institutional market structure changes, Fed transition dynamics, and missing euphoria signals suggest this cycle could extend into 2026."

https://x.com/alpha_pls/status/1958153018194452713

Random thoughts on the market:

Bitcoin has been weak recently. It’s in a downtrend on the daily, though still intact on higher timeframes. It's possible the low could be in already, but gut feeling says it probably isn't (although obviously I don't know, and it's impossible to predict lows).

The 200D MA sits around $101k, a level where I’d expect many bulls to step in. Max pain could mean wicking below that. The last two times we made new ATHs this cycle, BTC tested that level and briefly traded under it. Not saying it must happen again, but history suggests we shouldn’t be surprised. Capitulation often precedes the next leg higher.

ETH looks set for some mean reversion to the 20W EMA. Nothing bearish about this, it just had a massive run. I’d expect new highs after a healthy pullback.

SOL remains the strongest of the majors. It’s become a bit contrarian, with more hate than usual, but several catalysts are lining up: upcoming DAT companies likely being frontrun, staking ETFs on the horizon, and SOL/ETH back at late 2023 levels, making it attractive again. Onchain narratives and activity continue to cluster on Solana, and even CT’s sudden obsession with TCGs (buying Pokémon cards on Solana) reinforces that everything continues to happen on Solana this cycle.

Hyperliquid posted a new revenue ATH in August - $106.4M versus July’s $86.6M. The growth trajectory is extraordinary, and I still see it as undervalued here.

It’s no surprise Ethena looks stronger than most large caps heading into September, with multiple catalysts: Converge chain launch, ENA fee switch, and StablecoinX listing on Nasdaq. Ethena directly benefits more from rate cuts than any other protocol, as risk-free yields fall, Ethena’s yield becomes increasingly attractive to entities rotating out of treasuries.