Forwarded from infinityhedge
POWELL: CANNOT ALLOW ONE-TIME INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL TO BE ONGOING INFLATION PROBLEM
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Forwarded from infinityhedge
TRADERS HAVE INCREASED THEIR BETS ON A FEDERAL RESERVE RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER.
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Forwarded from The Kobeissi Letter
SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S SPEECH (8/22/25):
1. Shifting balance of risks "may warrant adjusting policy"
2. Suggests downside risks to employment are rising
3. Labor supply has softened in-line with demand
4. Fed abandoning flexible average inflation targeting framework
5. Can't take stable inflation expectations "for granted"
The Fed is preparing for a September rate cut.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
1. Shifting balance of risks "may warrant adjusting policy"
2. Suggests downside risks to employment are rising
3. Labor supply has softened in-line with demand
4. Fed abandoning flexible average inflation targeting framework
5. Can't take stable inflation expectations "for granted"
The Fed is preparing for a September rate cut.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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Forwarded from The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Fed Chair Powell says the "shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."
It appears Fed Chair Powell is setting the stage for a September rate cut.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
It appears Fed Chair Powell is setting the stage for a September rate cut.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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Forwarded from Walter Bloomberg
MARKETS SEE FED CUT IN SEPTEMBER AS POWELL FLAGS RISING RISKS
Powell signaled that the balance of risks is shifting, with downside pressures on employment becoming more evident and tariff-driven price effects feeding into inflation. While stressing that stable inflation expectations cannot be taken for granted, Powell’s comments reinforced bets on a rate cut.
Kalshi data now shows 81% odds of a 25bps cut in September, versus just 11% for no move and 4% for a larger cut.
https://t.co/MTBwgpNhQU
(@WalterBloomberg)
Powell signaled that the balance of risks is shifting, with downside pressures on employment becoming more evident and tariff-driven price effects feeding into inflation. While stressing that stable inflation expectations cannot be taken for granted, Powell’s comments reinforced bets on a rate cut.
Kalshi data now shows 81% odds of a 25bps cut in September, versus just 11% for no move and 4% for a larger cut.
https://t.co/MTBwgpNhQU
(@WalterBloomberg)
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that being said, time is running out
i'm not as optimistic as most in the 3-6 months left thesis
i would say 1-2 at best from now
or at least thats what im gonna play by
will not time it so much, just more of progressive selling
i'm not as optimistic as most in the 3-6 months left thesis
i would say 1-2 at best from now
or at least thats what im gonna play by
will not time it so much, just more of progressive selling
👍7🤝3
it has been a rewarding and great ~2 years
i will not push my luck too far
i will not push my luck too far
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Forwarded from The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 extends its rally on rate cut expectations to +1.4% and is now less than 50 points away from crossing 6,500 for the first time in history. https://t.co/z0cHHYB92J
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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likely to keep rallying into the cut
weekend reflexivity should be good too
melt up
weekend reflexivity should be good too
melt up
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Forwarded from Watcher Guru
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Crypto Mumbles
without bonkfun threatening pump last month, maybe we wouldn't even have the incentives and flywheels on pump
was thinking why pump's buybacks aren't automated like hype or heaven
read the fine lines again and realised
it was never their plan to and its a temporary measure against competition (nothing inherently wrong, money is better invested elsewhere in bear)
without bonk, i think pump never would've done the flywheel
read the fine lines again and realised
it was never their plan to and its a temporary measure against competition (nothing inherently wrong, money is better invested elsewhere in bear)
without bonk, i think pump never would've done the flywheel
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