infinityhedge
The Week Ahead: infinityhedge Mon: *Saylor expected to announce another BTC purchase *Trump press conference on crime in DC at 10 AM ET *Intel CEO to visit the White House Tue: *US-China tariff pause deadline *U.S. CPI *Earnings: Circle Wed: *U.S.…
The Week Ahead: infinityhedge | Big Week for powell
Mon:
*Trump to host Zelenskyy and EU leaders at the White House (focused on security guarantee type for ukraine)
*Saylor expected to announce another BTC purchase
Tue:
*Xiaomi report earnings
*A New York Court hearing on Hayden Davis’s LIBRA scandal
*Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, speakers include Fed’s Bowman, Paul Atkin
Wed:
*‘Made by Google’ Event
*China loan prime rates
*Baidu reports earnings
*FOMC meeting minutes
*Fed’s Waller speaks at Wyoming Blockchain Symposium
*Wyoming's stablecoin ‘WYST’ launch at Wyoming Blockchain Symposium.
Thu:
*U.S. Jobless Claims, Manufacturing PMI, home sales
*Walmart reports earnings
*The annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins
Fri:
*Japan reports CPI
*Germany Q2 GDP
*Fed Chair Powell’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole (expected to unveil the Fed’s new policy framework & he may also drop some hints about the Fed’s thinking ahead of its Sept. policy meeting). Powell has the opportunity to settle the speculation with his speech at the annual Jackson Hole. Last year, he used the gathering of central bankers to telegraph that the Fed was ready to cut rates. But the circumstances are different, and we don’t think he’ll be as frank this year: BE
Sun: Ukraine Independence Day
TBA/Whole Week: MetaMask might release (plans) new stablecoin ‘mUSD’ & DeepSeek-R2 might (maybe) launch
</INFINITYHEDGE/>: https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-1e9
Mon:
*Trump to host Zelenskyy and EU leaders at the White House (focused on security guarantee type for ukraine)
*Saylor expected to announce another BTC purchase
Tue:
*Xiaomi report earnings
*A New York Court hearing on Hayden Davis’s LIBRA scandal
*Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, speakers include Fed’s Bowman, Paul Atkin
Wed:
*‘Made by Google’ Event
*China loan prime rates
*Baidu reports earnings
*FOMC meeting minutes
*Fed’s Waller speaks at Wyoming Blockchain Symposium
*Wyoming's stablecoin ‘WYST’ launch at Wyoming Blockchain Symposium.
Thu:
*U.S. Jobless Claims, Manufacturing PMI, home sales
*Walmart reports earnings
*The annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins
Fri:
*Japan reports CPI
*Germany Q2 GDP
*Fed Chair Powell’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole (expected to unveil the Fed’s new policy framework & he may also drop some hints about the Fed’s thinking ahead of its Sept. policy meeting). Powell has the opportunity to settle the speculation with his speech at the annual Jackson Hole. Last year, he used the gathering of central bankers to telegraph that the Fed was ready to cut rates. But the circumstances are different, and we don’t think he’ll be as frank this year: BE
Sun: Ukraine Independence Day
TBA/Whole Week: MetaMask might release (plans) new stablecoin ‘mUSD’ & DeepSeek-R2 might (maybe) launch
</INFINITYHEDGE/>: https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-1e9
Substack
The 7 days
This is all so unnecessary. All of it. Everywhere
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*FED: MAJORITY SAW INFLATION RISK OUTWEIGHING EMPLOYMENT RISK
*FED: SEVERAL FLAGGED RISK OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNANCHORING
*FED: SEVERAL NOTED CONCERNS ABOUT ELEVATED ASSET VALUATIONS
*FED: MANY NOTED FULL EFFECT OF TARIFFS COULD TAKE SOME TIME
*FED: SEVERAL EXPECTED COMPANIES WOULD PASS TARIFFS TO CUSTOMERS
*FED: SEVERAL FLAGGED RISK OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNANCHORING
*FED: SEVERAL NOTED CONCERNS ABOUT ELEVATED ASSET VALUATIONS
*FED: MANY NOTED FULL EFFECT OF TARIFFS COULD TAKE SOME TIME
*FED: SEVERAL EXPECTED COMPANIES WOULD PASS TARIFFS TO CUSTOMERS
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BIG DAY TODAY: @INFINITYHEDGE
*Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole (10 AM)
*Trump Announcement at 12 PM
Previews on Powell's Speech:
*WSJ (Nick Timiraos): Fed officials are preparing to quietly retreat from a signature policy innovation unveiled five years ago. In 2020, officials revamped their approach to setting rates, focusing on the risks brought on by near-zero interest rates and low prices. Today, officials are preparing to scrap that approach, now viewed as no longer relevant when facing the opposite problem of high and more volatile inflation. The 2020 changes involved two main shifts. First, the Fed said it would allow inflation to run modestly above its 2% target for periods to make up for times when it had fallen short. Second, officials said they would focus only on the unemployment rate being too high, rather than also worrying about the rate being too low, removing some urgency to pre-emptively raise rates and prevent the economy from running too hot. Officials have signaled they are likely to back off from the more ambitious employment goal that returns the Fed to some version of the framework that existed before the more novel changes.
*UBS: Powell may deliver a retrospective “exit” speech, potentially disappointing those looking for dovish signals.
*JPM: there are no expectations for Powell to divulge any material info...we look for stagflation evidence to flip our view to bearish.....Fed’s decision on a Sept cut(s) is dependent on the Sep 5 NFP and Sep 11 CPI prints, Jackson Hole is shaping up to be inconsequential.
*GS: expect Powell to modify his statement from the July FOMC press conference that the FOMC is “well positioned” to wait for more information. Instead, he might note that the FOMC is well positioned to address risks to both sides of its mandate but emphasize that downside risks to the labor market have grown following the July employment report, while reiterating that tariffs are likely to have only a one-time effect on the price level. We do not expect him to decisively signal a Sept. cut, but the speech should make it clear to markets that he is likely to support one.
*GS: On the framework review, we expect the FOMC to partially reverse some of the changes it made in 2020, as it has foreshadowed in the minutes to its recent meetings. Specifically, we expect the FOMC to return to saying that it will respond to “deviations” from maximum employment in both directions rather than just to “shortfalls” or to at least water down the shortfalls language and to return to flexible inflation targeting (rather than flexible average inflation targeting) as its main strategy while retaining the option to use a make-up strategy at the zero lower bound.
*Barclays: believes markets are overly confident in expecting a Sept. cut, and while they see the decision as a close call, the banks baseline remains that the next cut will happen only in Dec.
*FT's Jackson Hole speech: https://www.ft.com/content/3090312e-4f45-4dfb-a006-318575f2a599
ICYMI: </INFINITYHEDGE/>
*Nvidia orders suspension to H20 chip production; Shares of China’s leading AI chipmakers, surged to a record after DeepSeek unveiled an updated model that would be compatible with Chinese-made chips.
*China considering yuan-backed stablecoins to boost global currency usage; latest plans come after a Shanghai regulator last month said it had held a meeting for local gov officials to consider strategic responses to stablecoins and digital currencies.
*Trump suggested that he’s open to Ukraine launching more attacks on Russia.
*Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole (10 AM)
*Trump Announcement at 12 PM
Previews on Powell's Speech:
*WSJ (Nick Timiraos): Fed officials are preparing to quietly retreat from a signature policy innovation unveiled five years ago. In 2020, officials revamped their approach to setting rates, focusing on the risks brought on by near-zero interest rates and low prices. Today, officials are preparing to scrap that approach, now viewed as no longer relevant when facing the opposite problem of high and more volatile inflation. The 2020 changes involved two main shifts. First, the Fed said it would allow inflation to run modestly above its 2% target for periods to make up for times when it had fallen short. Second, officials said they would focus only on the unemployment rate being too high, rather than also worrying about the rate being too low, removing some urgency to pre-emptively raise rates and prevent the economy from running too hot. Officials have signaled they are likely to back off from the more ambitious employment goal that returns the Fed to some version of the framework that existed before the more novel changes.
*UBS: Powell may deliver a retrospective “exit” speech, potentially disappointing those looking for dovish signals.
*JPM: there are no expectations for Powell to divulge any material info...we look for stagflation evidence to flip our view to bearish.....Fed’s decision on a Sept cut(s) is dependent on the Sep 5 NFP and Sep 11 CPI prints, Jackson Hole is shaping up to be inconsequential.
*GS: expect Powell to modify his statement from the July FOMC press conference that the FOMC is “well positioned” to wait for more information. Instead, he might note that the FOMC is well positioned to address risks to both sides of its mandate but emphasize that downside risks to the labor market have grown following the July employment report, while reiterating that tariffs are likely to have only a one-time effect on the price level. We do not expect him to decisively signal a Sept. cut, but the speech should make it clear to markets that he is likely to support one.
*GS: On the framework review, we expect the FOMC to partially reverse some of the changes it made in 2020, as it has foreshadowed in the minutes to its recent meetings. Specifically, we expect the FOMC to return to saying that it will respond to “deviations” from maximum employment in both directions rather than just to “shortfalls” or to at least water down the shortfalls language and to return to flexible inflation targeting (rather than flexible average inflation targeting) as its main strategy while retaining the option to use a make-up strategy at the zero lower bound.
*Barclays: believes markets are overly confident in expecting a Sept. cut, and while they see the decision as a close call, the banks baseline remains that the next cut will happen only in Dec.
*FT's Jackson Hole speech: https://www.ft.com/content/3090312e-4f45-4dfb-a006-318575f2a599
ICYMI: </INFINITYHEDGE/>
*Nvidia orders suspension to H20 chip production; Shares of China’s leading AI chipmakers, surged to a record after DeepSeek unveiled an updated model that would be compatible with Chinese-made chips.
*China considering yuan-backed stablecoins to boost global currency usage; latest plans come after a Shanghai regulator last month said it had held a meeting for local gov officials to consider strategic responses to stablecoins and digital currencies.
*Trump suggested that he’s open to Ukraine launching more attacks on Russia.
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POWELL: CANNOT ALLOW ONE-TIME INCREASE IN PRICE LEVEL TO BE ONGOING INFLATION PROBLEM
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TRADERS HAVE INCREASED THEIR BETS ON A FEDERAL RESERVE RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER.
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TRADERS NOW PUT ABOUT 90% PROBABILITY ON FED RATE CUT IN SEPT, VS 75% BEFORE POWELL'S REMARKS
TRADERS RESUME FULLY PRICING IN TWO FED RATE CUTS BY YEAR-END
TRADERS RESUME FULLY PRICING IN TWO FED RATE CUTS BY YEAR-END
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TRUMP: WILL FIRE FED'S COOK IF SHE DOESN'T RESIGN
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Too much misinformation about Powell's speech going around, so here's the short summary: INFINITYHEDGE
*Powell left the door open for Sept. Rate Cut but signaled it won't be the start of aggressive easing.
*On the labor market, Powell said ”the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of & demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs.
*On inflation, Powell said: The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing & amounts... A reasonable base case is that the effects will be a one-time shift in the price level. Ofc, “one-time” does not mean “all at once.” It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains...& Ofc we cannot take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Come what may, we will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem.
*In Conclusion, Powell said: In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation... Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago, and the stability of the unemployment rate & other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.
<Policy Framework Change>: (we covered it already here: https://news.1rj.ru/str/infinityhedge/26042 before Powell's Speech but still misinformation spreading, & please don't blindly trust twitter influencers)
Powell said the Fed has adopted a new framework, Key Changes:
↳ removed ELB
↳ dropped the policy of intentionally allowing inflation to run moderately above 2% to compensate for past periods when it was below 2%.
↳ removed "shortfalls" term that focused only on unemployment being too high. {While Powell said they still believe employment can run above estimates without necessarily creating risks to price stability}. (this was kindof a communication fix)
↳ The revised policy framework now more closely aligns with the original 2012 (balanced approach).
In short: The Fed moved away from 2020 framework back toward 2012 framework and Now is less tolerant of sustained inflation above 2%. (These changes likely won’t affect near-term policy decisions).
Opinion: <@infinityhedge>
↳ By returning to a focus on price stability and a 2% inflation target, this implies that all concerned should prepare for higher rates for longer despite a rising probability of near-term rate cuts: RSM
*Deutsche, Barclays, BNP, GS, JPM, Nomura expects a Fed Rate Cut in September.
Tldr: Powell was cautiously dovish with hawkish undertone but was essentially neutral And rate decision will depend on the August employment and CPI reports.
*Powell left the door open for Sept. Rate Cut but signaled it won't be the start of aggressive easing.
*On the labor market, Powell said ”the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of & demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs.
*On inflation, Powell said: The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing & amounts... A reasonable base case is that the effects will be a one-time shift in the price level. Ofc, “one-time” does not mean “all at once.” It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains...& Ofc we cannot take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Come what may, we will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem.
*In Conclusion, Powell said: In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation... Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago, and the stability of the unemployment rate & other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.
<Policy Framework Change>: (we covered it already here: https://news.1rj.ru/str/infinityhedge/26042 before Powell's Speech but still misinformation spreading, & please don't blindly trust twitter influencers)
Powell said the Fed has adopted a new framework, Key Changes:
↳ removed ELB
↳ dropped the policy of intentionally allowing inflation to run moderately above 2% to compensate for past periods when it was below 2%.
↳ removed "shortfalls" term that focused only on unemployment being too high. {While Powell said they still believe employment can run above estimates without necessarily creating risks to price stability}. (this was kindof a communication fix)
↳ The revised policy framework now more closely aligns with the original 2012 (balanced approach).
In short: The Fed moved away from 2020 framework back toward 2012 framework and Now is less tolerant of sustained inflation above 2%. (These changes likely won’t affect near-term policy decisions).
Opinion: <@infinityhedge>
↳ By returning to a focus on price stability and a 2% inflation target, this implies that all concerned should prepare for higher rates for longer despite a rising probability of near-term rate cuts: RSM
*Deutsche, Barclays, BNP, GS, JPM, Nomura expects a Fed Rate Cut in September.
Tldr: Powell was cautiously dovish with hawkish undertone but was essentially neutral And rate decision will depend on the August employment and CPI reports.
Telegram
infinityhedge
BIG DAY TODAY: @INFINITYHEDGE
*Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole (10 AM)
*Trump Announcement at 12 PM
Previews on Powell's Speech:
*WSJ (Nick Timiraos): Fed officials are preparing to quietly retreat from a signature policy innovation unveiled…
*Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole (10 AM)
*Trump Announcement at 12 PM
Previews on Powell's Speech:
*WSJ (Nick Timiraos): Fed officials are preparing to quietly retreat from a signature policy innovation unveiled…
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*GALAXY, JUMP, MULTICOIN SAID TO SEEK $1B TO BUY SOLANA TOKEN: BBG
*Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, Jump Crypto are in talks with potential backers about raising ~$1 billion to accumulate Solana. The three firms have enlisted Cantor Fitzgerald LP as lead banker for the deal. They aim to create a so-called digital asset treasury company by taking over an unidentified publicly traded entity. The Solana Foundation has given its endorsement to the effort. The transaction is expected to close in early September.
*Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, Jump Crypto are in talks with potential backers about raising ~$1 billion to accumulate Solana. The three firms have enlisted Cantor Fitzgerald LP as lead banker for the deal. They aim to create a so-called digital asset treasury company by taking over an unidentified publicly traded entity. The Solana Foundation has given its endorsement to the effort. The transaction is expected to close in early September.
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The Week Ahead: infinityhedge
Mon:
*SpaceX Starship Flight 10
*Saylor expected to announce another BTC purchase
Tue: U.S. August durable goods
Wed:
*Additional 25% US tariff on India kicks in, raising total tariff to 50%
*Nvidia reports earnings
Thu:
*U.S. Q2 GDP, Jobless Claims, home sales,
*Bitcoin Asia 2025 conference in Hong Kong starts, Eric Trump speaks on Fri
Fri:
*GDP data from Canada, France, India and Italy
*U.S. PCE: “expect the hottest reading since Feb. And if economic activity is gaining steam, firms may be able to pass through more tariff costs to consumers. That raises the risk that the upcoming CPI and jobs reports for August may not necessarily support a rate cut in Sept.”: BE
*U.S. to end its “de minimis” tariff exemption
*Alibaba, BYD reports earnings
*US Crypto Futures Expiration
Sun: Two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit begins, Putin expected to attend, China is expected to discuss expanding the use of yuan and possibly stablecoins for cross-border trade and payments with some countries at this event.
https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-61c
Mon:
*SpaceX Starship Flight 10
*Saylor expected to announce another BTC purchase
Tue: U.S. August durable goods
Wed:
*Additional 25% US tariff on India kicks in, raising total tariff to 50%
*Nvidia reports earnings
Thu:
*U.S. Q2 GDP, Jobless Claims, home sales,
*Bitcoin Asia 2025 conference in Hong Kong starts, Eric Trump speaks on Fri
Fri:
*GDP data from Canada, France, India and Italy
*U.S. PCE: “expect the hottest reading since Feb. And if economic activity is gaining steam, firms may be able to pass through more tariff costs to consumers. That raises the risk that the upcoming CPI and jobs reports for August may not necessarily support a rate cut in Sept.”: BE
*U.S. to end its “de minimis” tariff exemption
*Alibaba, BYD reports earnings
*US Crypto Futures Expiration
Sun: Two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit begins, Putin expected to attend, China is expected to discuss expanding the use of yuan and possibly stablecoins for cross-border trade and payments with some countries at this event.
https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-61c
Substack
The 7 days
Week Ahead:
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Trump: I PAID ZERO FOR INTEL, IT IS WORTH APPROXIMATELY 11 BILLION DOLLARS. All goes to the USA. Why are “stupid” people unhappy with that? I will make deals like that for our Country all day long. I will also help those companies that make such lucrative deals with the United States States. I love seeing their stock price go up, making the USA RICHER, AND RICHER. More jobs for America!!! Who would not want to make deals like that?
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ZACHXBT: CRYPTO EXCHANGE CRYPTO[.]COM HAD A MASSIVE INCIDENT THEY COVERED UP IN THE PAST THAT THEY NEVER MADE PUBLIC...(I'M JUST NOT ALLOWED TO LEAK DETAILS RN)
ZACHXBT ON TRUMP MEDIA ACQUIRING $1BILLION CRO FOR TREASURY: POV YOU GIVEAWAY CRO TOKENS YOU REISSUED OUT OF THIN AIR EARLIER THIS YEAR BY FORCING THROUGH A GOVERNANCE PROPOSAL THAT INCREASED THE TOTAL CRO SUPPLY BY 2.33X.
Context: Earlier this year Crypto[.]Com reversed 70 Billion CRO Token Burn (was supposed to be permanent Burn) (increased token supply by 70%).
ZACHXBT ON TRUMP MEDIA ACQUIRING $1BILLION CRO FOR TREASURY: POV YOU GIVEAWAY CRO TOKENS YOU REISSUED OUT OF THIN AIR EARLIER THIS YEAR BY FORCING THROUGH A GOVERNANCE PROPOSAL THAT INCREASED THE TOTAL CRO SUPPLY BY 2.33X.
Context: Earlier this year Crypto[.]Com reversed 70 Billion CRO Token Burn (was supposed to be permanent Burn) (increased token supply by 70%).
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*NUMERAI, A CROWDSOURCING HEDGE FUND SECURES $500 MILLION COMMITMENT FROM JPMORGAN: BBG
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