Too much misinformation about Powell's speech going around, so here's the short summary: INFINITYHEDGE

*Powell left the door open for Sept. Rate Cut but signaled it won't be the start of aggressive easing.

*On the labor market, Powell said ”the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of & demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs.

*On inflation, Powell said: The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing & amounts... A reasonable base case is that the effects will be a one-time shift in the price level. Ofc, “one-time” does not mean “all at once.” It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains...& Ofc we cannot take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Come what may, we will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem.

*In Conclusion, Powell said: In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation... Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago, and the stability of the unemployment rate & other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.

<Policy Framework Change>: (we covered it already here: https://news.1rj.ru/str/infinityhedge/26042 before Powell's Speech but still misinformation spreading, & please don't blindly trust twitter influencers)

Powell said the Fed has adopted a new framework, Key Changes:
↳ removed ELB
↳ dropped the policy of intentionally allowing inflation to run moderately above 2% to compensate for past periods when it was below 2%.
↳ removed "shortfalls" term that focused only on unemployment being too high. {While Powell said they still believe employment can run above estimates without necessarily creating risks to price stability}. (this was kindof a communication fix)
↳ The revised policy framework now more closely aligns with the original 2012 (balanced approach).

In short: The Fed moved away from 2020 framework back toward 2012 framework and Now is less tolerant of sustained inflation above 2%. (These changes likely won’t affect near-term policy decisions).

Opinion: <@infinityhedge>
↳ By returning to a focus on price stability and a 2% inflation target, this implies that all concerned should prepare for higher rates for longer despite a rising probability of near-term rate cuts: RSM

*Deutsche, Barclays, BNP, GS, JPM, Nomura expects a Fed Rate Cut in September.

Tldr: Powell was cautiously dovish with hawkish undertone but was essentially neutral And rate decision will depend on the August employment and CPI reports.

new team tokenomics

team tokens to be revested to 1 year cliff instead

BREAKING: 62% of Americans now expect a higher unemployment rate over the next 12 months, one of the highest readings since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

This percentage has DOUBLED in under 1 year.

Such a high percentage has never been seen outside of recessions.

Interestingly, top 33% income households are more pessimistic than the middle and bottom thirds.

In previous economic cycles, a change in expectations of this magnitude has preceded a surge in unemployment in 100% of cases.

The labor market is cracking.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

The longest bear market:

The US Dollar’s purchasing power.

Over the last 100 years, the US Dollar has lost -95% of its purchasing power.

Since 2000, the US Dollar has lost over -40% of its purchasing power.

Own assets or be left behind. https://t.co/x8FgimjfCx
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

Think we are in the last inning of this extended cycle that started from Jan 2023 - I don't expect these phases to last more than a couple of months. Every marginal buyer in the world has to some extent capitulated and bought crypto, with both $BTC and $ETH now tagging all time highs.

My HTF ETHBTC target of 0.04 has also been reached, signalling to me that the ETH trade is effectively over.

What this means to me, is that I will no longer be playing offense - no more large size martingales on momentum, with a focus on capital preservation as opposed to capital accumulation. It is quite likely I miss the crazy moves that may yet happen, but that's okay because they don't fit in my system.

This does not mean I've sold everything and flipped short (on the contrary I'm still long), but with much lower nets. I look to DAT mNAVs as the indicator for when to aggressively step back into the market, and I expect majority of DATs to be trading under 1 mNAV by the time this is all over.

We've had a good run, and now it's time to touch some grass ~

According to Lookonchain, Matrixport (or its clients) appears to be selling ETH for BTC. Yesterday, it withdrew 2,354.6 BTC (about $272M) from Binance and OKX. Prior to that, multiple wallets linked to Matrixport had deposited 95,873 ETH (about $452M) into Binance and OKX. — link

if btc has troubles making new highs after JH, i will be worried

baseapp invites

https://fxtwitter.com/Jack55750/status/1959424206954963209

don’t be too hyper fixated on numbers when it comes to selling

“sol hasn’t reached ath, we defo haven’t topped”
“but eth just broke out of a multi year range, lots of room to go”
“my portfolio is close to ath again”

market doesn’t care

when it’s time to sell, sell