sol is doing decent, but the conditions in the trenches are still quite terrible imo

base camp still in play as base coins are booming (consumer apps)

tells you enough about the sentiments around microcaps

none of my concerns are really solved yet and the only thing that attracted me enough is light, which played out well and is currently cooling off/consolidating

more launchpads have spawned recently too, but my take is that if they don't own the stack (or have a more efficient model), they can never compete with pump or heaven at this point

because the fees being paid to meteora/ray is additional cost to the consumer and inefficient

pump's fee model is inefficient but its lindy and consistent in performance, heaven's fee model is efficient but new to the market

if your launchpad diddles in the middle, then its likely not going to make it

CIVIL WAR

i know i've said launchpads have no moats before and i still kinda stand by it

but recent times have shown that the above stated is starting to act like a moat, esp given how pump reclaimed dominance decisively from bonkfun

maybe its in the lindy-ness or deep liquidity (in form of crime) i don't know

for heaven, it would be the fee model, AMM, and possibly the culture of the community shaped by peace

i think a lot of my heaven conviction comes from it being overlooked as an AMM as well

most are looking at it as just a launchpad, but in fact the launchpad is simply a wrapper on top of the AMM which will be developed into further products (mentioned many times by peace that launchpad is just product 1)

it is likely that eventually value accrual from all products go back into light's flywheel and the catalysts ahead for heaven far outweighs the downside risk (to me)

one of those situations where i'm okay to take the downside

however, as i've mentioned before, heaven's biggest threat is time: https://x.com/dpycm/status/1957777518280466839

none of these will matter if 1) bullmarket ends, 2) sol doesn't have an onchain mania before (1)

anyw, my port is majority in great allocations on the evm side and light's allocation is a reflection of the current risk im willing to take on the sol side until things improve

we do a little risk management and place some high risk bets as well

To me it's screamingly obvious that Tom Lee is not a better Saylor (and ETH not a better r/r long than BTC over 1y)... at least YET.
Maybe in a few years, who knows.

But right now, Saylor is considered as the madman who would rather file for bankruptcy rather than sell a single BTC.
Tom Lee ? A trader who is a profit maxi, and doesn't give the feeling that he's a diamond hand.

You simply can't build 2 years of trust in 3 months.
Saylor is a BTC maxi, his only focus is MSTR and BTC, whereas Bitmine is not even the sole focus of Tom Lee, he is still managing Fundstrat and offering equities ETFs.

This massively exacerbates the downside risk on ETH vs BTC

And you can feel that with market participants :

- BTC bulls are absolutely unbothered when BTC dips, no price target, this thing is going to $1M

- On the ETH side, any dip is met with unease and 'cycle top?' concerns, and most people are looking to offload above $5k, they don't want to be holding it during the ETH bear market

one thing i'm open to now that we're in a new regime (and as we've realised)

is that we can mostly throw away what we've known from previous cycles

history does not account for current structural changes and developments (instis and whatnot)

meaning that it might actually be possible for eth to run without btc without signaling the top

this is not my default stance as i'm clearly worried for btc, but we keep adapting just as we did for btc

default stance based on history is

btc tops first, alts outperform for ~1 month

cycle ends

if you include macro worries, it actually kinda lines up

which overall makes it 10x more worrying personally

hence my statement: https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptomumbles/15918

good time to revisit a reflection piece from q4 2024:
https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptomumbles/10870

JUST IN: $250,000,000 worth of crypto longs liquidated in the past 30 minutes.

@WatcherGuru

Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced the purchase of an additional 103 Bitcoin for approximately 1.736 billion yen (around $11.78 million). Following the purchase, the company’s total Bitcoin holdings have risen to 18,991 BTC, with a cumulative investment of about 285.833 billion yen (around $1.942 billion). — link