It's something we see quite often

Here is the June 22 bottom for example

Wait $ETH is like 0.7% away from new ATH

As someone who doesn’t like trading macro events at all, I thought the key takeaway going into Jackson Hole was that everyone seemed already heavily hedged.

So unless he came out really hawkish, upside was the most likely expectation.

Give us a dovish tone and we giga-shoot straight up ?

I dunno, I am just rationalizing after the event ofc

Narrator : boomers wanted to buy more $ETH.

Happy ETH ATH to those who celebrate!

$WLFI at $40bn FDV in pre-market on Binance lmao

It will trade much lower in one year

But they will absolutely PvP the shorts after TGE, the float will be very low

(Illustrated risk : TRUMP was looking like a decent short when it was stalling around $30bn...)

If they squeeze this 2x post TGE, it will be an absolutely goated short just like TRUMP was

They seem to be doing absolutely everything to push it to the max at launch because they know it will be down only after that

$WLFI down -40% in a day

Maybe the idea that it was low float and that they would crime it up post launch was too consensus

And you just had to blindly short a stupidly high FDV

Let's wait and see, I took an ant-sized short that I covered, and I am not in a WLFI trade at this very moment.

$BIO is in its SPKization process

It could pull another +50%/+100% in a day from here, and that's where you can short it

Surprise surprise

$SAROS

To me it's screamingly obvious that Tom Lee is not a better Saylor (and ETH not a better r/r long than BTC over 1y)... at least YET.
Maybe in a few years, who knows.

But right now, Saylor is considered as the madman who would rather file for bankruptcy rather than sell a single BTC.
Tom Lee ? A trader who is a profit maxi, and doesn't give the feeling that he's a diamond hand.

You simply can't build 2 years of trust in 3 months.
Saylor is a BTC maxi, his only focus is MSTR and BTC, whereas Bitmine is not even the sole focus of Tom Lee, he is still managing Fundstrat and offering equities ETFs.

This massively exacerbates the downside risk on ETH vs BTC

And you can feel that with market participants :

- BTC bulls are absolutely unbothered when BTC dips, no price target, this thing is going to $1M

- On the ETH side, any dip is met with unease and 'cycle top?' concerns, and most people are looking to offload above $5k, they don't want to be holding it during the ETH bear market

The biggest copium argument to justify ETH treasury companies being fundamentally better than BTC treasury companies is the staking yield.

The ETH staking yield is way too small to be relevant.

It is an order of magnitude too small compared to the "financial engineering yield" a treasury company can generate during the good times. (75% increase in BTC per share for MSTR in 2024...)

And it is also an order of magnitude too small to prevent the mNAV to trade at a discount during the hard times. (MSTR mNAV went to 0.5x-0.6x in 2022, it's not a 2% staking yield that would help a lot in this situation).

At the end of the day, the most important factor is the CAGR of the underlying.

If you think the long term CAGR is higher for ETH than for BTC, then just say that, but don't invent a narrative where the staking yield explains that higher CAGR...

I don't think we're going down another -20% as in early 2025 but that fractal is making bears wet

I am a huge fan of the value vs momentum framework that
Avi Felman mentions very often

Clearly the momentum has been killed on BTC, so now we are waiting on value buyers to show up.

They usually tend to step in when we are making new lows vs the past the 2 months : $108k-$111k

Also don't forget that we went basically up only from $75k to $110k, that was some pretty insane PA and a +50% move in like 45 days. It takes some time to digest this.

$110k was looking like a stretch when we were trading at $80k just 5 months ago, and it's now the current price. But this time it's the bottom of a range so people are freaking out about it.

What the crime is going on

$SAROS

He's back at selling $MSTR shares as if the mNAV guidance had never existed

I think he realized it was not a good idea to issue it in the first place

Maybe he got some calls from large shareholders (these are not the people fuding MSTR on CT but people with actual size kek)

What's obvious though is that the narrative about the ATM keeping the price down was clearly stupid : the MSTR/IBIT ratio went DOWN after Saylor said he wouldn't sell MSTR shares below 2.5x mNAV, and didn't sell MSTR shares for 3 weeks.

Was it a good idea to issue the mNAV guidance initially ?

No

Was it a good idea to rectify it as soon as possible ?

Yes

The number of smart people who are bullish on $BTC but think that $MSTR should trade at 1x mNAV is a clear indication that the MSTR trade is not over

How many times are we going to fade this thing that works so well ?

Why is BERA strong ?

Because people are frontrunning a $BERA DAT