NATIVE MARKETS SURGES TO 90% ODDS TO WIN THE USDH TICKER ON POLYMARKET AFTER ALLEGATIONS THAT ANOTHER CONTENDER IS ATTEMPTING TO “BRIBE” VOTERS

🔗 velo.xyz

". . . The thing I would say is, when you grow up, you tend to get told that the world is the way it is, and your life is just to live your life inside the world. Try not to bash into the walls too much. Try to have a nice family life, have fun, save a little money. But life, that's a very limited life. Life can be much broader once you discover one simple fact, and that is: Everything around you that you call life was made up by people that were no smarter than you. And you can change it. You can influence it. You can build your own things that other people can use. And the minute that you understand that you can poke life, and actually something will, you know, if you push in, something will pop out the other side, that you can change it. You can mold it. That's maybe the most important thing is to shake off this erroneous notion that life is there and you're just going to live in it, versus embrace it. Change it. Improve it. Make your mark upon it. I think that's very important. And however you learn that, once you learn it, you'll want to change life and make it better. Because it's kind of messed up in a lot of ways. Once you learn that, you'll never be the same again."

Steve Jobs Secrets of Life
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYfNvmF0Bqw

the feedback loop between real-world events and the incentives baked into prediction markets:


Jim Bell’s Assasination Politics is a series of essays outlining a system where privacy crypto could be used to fund and incentivize political assassinations. His logic was the following:

1. A public market exists where people anonymously place bounties on politicians or public figures by contributing crypto.
2. Assassins submit an encrypted “prediction” of when/where/how the target will die.
3. When the assassination occurs, the assassin reveals their prediction + proof, which matches reality.
4. The market pays them out automatically.

The U.S. government treated it as a serious threat. Bell himself was relentlessly targeted by law enforcement. He ended up in prison multiple times.

As we progress deeper into a hyper-financialised future, assasination markets could make a return in subversive ways.

Currently, predictions on adverse outcomes for high status individuals have mostly existed in a low liquidity phase. low enough size and interest that nobody’s really going to risk prison.

Yet, as betting market pie increases, suddenly interesting incentives pop up.

Incentive to Prevent Payouts: A big actor with exposure could have reason to discourage an adverse outcome from materializing in the real world (funding think tanks, campaigns, even ops).

Incentive to Cause Payouts: Conversely, if the liquidity pool gets large enough for an adverse outcome, the incentive may shift to individuals helping create these events. And thus, prediction markets move beyond betting on the outcomes, and into creating outcomes.

So suddenly you have this perverse, memetic casino where the probability of the event itself is warped by who’s trading it in a reflexive manner. And in this environment the real danger is that someone with size realizes the cheapest way to shape the world isn’t ads or lobbying, it’s simply buying enough contracts in a prediction market to create new incentive gradients in reality.

https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptomumbles/16156

when the incentives are big enough, society creates the outcomes it wants instead of letting it happen

Nmtd didn’t like the outcome of the USDH vote and started selling HYPE from his main wallet.

He opened a 36K HYPE ($1.95M) short and sold 80K HYPE ($4.4M), with his first trade being a 26K HYPE ($1.4M) market sell that dumped the price by 0.5%.

https://hypurrscan.io/address/0xf517639a8872e756ac98d3c65507d2ebc25cc032

*US AUG. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US AUG. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.9% Y/Y; EST. +2.9%

*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 3.1% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%
(@WalterBloomberg)

*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 263K IN SEPT. 6 WEEK; EST. 235K
*US CONTINUING CLAIMS 1.939M IN AUG. 30 WEEK; EST. 1.951M

BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes at a new all time high and is now up +36% since the April 2025 bottom.

That's +$15 TRILLION in market cap in 5 months. https://t.co/SrNci622iy
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

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