Forwarded from Modo Capital
the feedback loop between real-world events and the incentives baked into prediction markets:
Jim Bell’s Assasination Politics is a series of essays outlining a system where privacy crypto could be used to fund and incentivize political assassinations. His logic was the following:
1. A public market exists where people anonymously place bounties on politicians or public figures by contributing crypto.
2. Assassins submit an encrypted “prediction” of when/where/how the target will die.
3. When the assassination occurs, the assassin reveals their prediction + proof, which matches reality.
4. The market pays them out automatically.
The U.S. government treated it as a serious threat. Bell himself was relentlessly targeted by law enforcement. He ended up in prison multiple times.
As we progress deeper into a hyper-financialised future, assasination markets could make a return in subversive ways.
Currently, predictions on adverse outcomes for high status individuals have mostly existed in a low liquidity phase. low enough size and interest that nobody’s really going to risk prison.
Yet, as betting market pie increases, suddenly interesting incentives pop up.
Incentive to Prevent Payouts: A big actor with exposure could have reason to discourage an adverse outcome from materializing in the real world (funding think tanks, campaigns, even ops).
Incentive to Cause Payouts: Conversely, if the liquidity pool gets large enough for an adverse outcome, the incentive may shift to individuals helping create these events. And thus, prediction markets move beyond betting on the outcomes, and into creating outcomes.
So suddenly you have this perverse, memetic casino where the probability of the event itself is warped by who’s trading it in a reflexive manner. And in this environment the real danger is that someone with size realizes the cheapest way to shape the world isn’t ads or lobbying, it’s simply buying enough contracts in a prediction market to create new incentive gradients in reality.
Jim Bell’s Assasination Politics is a series of essays outlining a system where privacy crypto could be used to fund and incentivize political assassinations. His logic was the following:
1. A public market exists where people anonymously place bounties on politicians or public figures by contributing crypto.
2. Assassins submit an encrypted “prediction” of when/where/how the target will die.
3. When the assassination occurs, the assassin reveals their prediction + proof, which matches reality.
4. The market pays them out automatically.
The U.S. government treated it as a serious threat. Bell himself was relentlessly targeted by law enforcement. He ended up in prison multiple times.
As we progress deeper into a hyper-financialised future, assasination markets could make a return in subversive ways.
Currently, predictions on adverse outcomes for high status individuals have mostly existed in a low liquidity phase. low enough size and interest that nobody’s really going to risk prison.
Yet, as betting market pie increases, suddenly interesting incentives pop up.
Incentive to Prevent Payouts: A big actor with exposure could have reason to discourage an adverse outcome from materializing in the real world (funding think tanks, campaigns, even ops).
Incentive to Cause Payouts: Conversely, if the liquidity pool gets large enough for an adverse outcome, the incentive may shift to individuals helping create these events. And thus, prediction markets move beyond betting on the outcomes, and into creating outcomes.
So suddenly you have this perverse, memetic casino where the probability of the event itself is warped by who’s trading it in a reflexive manner. And in this environment the real danger is that someone with size realizes the cheapest way to shape the world isn’t ads or lobbying, it’s simply buying enough contracts in a prediction market to create new incentive gradients in reality.
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Modo Capital
And thus, prediction markets move beyond betting on the outcomes, and into creating outcomes.
https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptomumbles/16156
when the incentives are big enough, society creates the outcomes it wants instead of letting it happen
when the incentives are big enough, society creates the outcomes it wants instead of letting it happen
Telegram
Crypto Mumbles
been thinking about PMs and i can see how as it accelerates, the world becomes more dystopian similar to black mirror
in a world where almost everything is on the PM, people are incentivised to act accordingly to the odds instead
eerily similar to when…
in a world where almost everything is on the PM, people are incentivised to act accordingly to the odds instead
eerily similar to when…
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Forwarded from Mlm onchain
Nmtd didn’t like the outcome of the USDH vote and started selling HYPE from his main wallet.
He opened a 36K HYPE ($1.95M) short and sold 80K HYPE ($4.4M), with his first trade being a 26K HYPE ($1.4M) market sell that dumped the price by 0.5%.
https://hypurrscan.io/address/0xf517639a8872e756ac98d3c65507d2ebc25cc032
He opened a 36K HYPE ($1.95M) short and sold 80K HYPE ($4.4M), with his first trade being a 26K HYPE ($1.4M) market sell that dumped the price by 0.5%.
https://hypurrscan.io/address/0xf517639a8872e756ac98d3c65507d2ebc25cc032
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Forwarded from Walter Bloomberg
*US AUG. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US AUG. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.9% Y/Y; EST. +2.9%
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 3.1% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%
(@WalterBloomberg)
*US AUG. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.9% Y/Y; EST. +2.9%
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 3.1% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%
(@WalterBloomberg)
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Forwarded from unfolded.
U.S. CPI: +2.9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.9%)
U.S. CORE CPI: +3.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.1%)
U.S. CORE CPI: +3.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.1%)
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Forwarded from infinityhedge
*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 263K IN SEPT. 6 WEEK; EST. 235K
*US CONTINUING CLAIMS 1.939M IN AUG. 30 WEEK; EST. 1.951M
*US CONTINUING CLAIMS 1.939M IN AUG. 30 WEEK; EST. 1.951M
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Forwarded from JoesCrypt
Safety Shot (Nasdaq: $SHOT) secures 228.9B $BONK (~$55M, 2.5% supply) with plans to deploy across Solana DeFi via staking, liquidity, and yield strategies
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Forwarded from The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes at a new all time high and is now up +36% since the April 2025 bottom.
That's +$15 TRILLION in market cap in 5 months. https://t.co/SrNci622iy
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
That's +$15 TRILLION in market cap in 5 months. https://t.co/SrNci622iy
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
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Forwarded from unfolded. DeFi
Galaxy Digital adds $530 million in SOL as 'Solana Season' narrative gains traction — link | AI comment
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Forwarded from Market Metrics
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Forwarded from Konoha Research Academy
Think you have to be honest with yourself and ask whether you think we're moving into a higher trust or lower trust world? (do you think ppl are more likely to trust each other)
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Forwarded from Konoha Research Academy
for nominal prices of gold and btc to be meaningfully lower you would need:
1) the economy to start rolling over
2) people to start risking off as they panic sell into usd - this requires for us to be in a higher trust world where ppl believe in the government and it's symbol: the currency
3) the government to not bail us out via money printing/debasement
1) the economy to start rolling over
2) people to start risking off as they panic sell into usd - this requires for us to be in a higher trust world where ppl believe in the government and it's symbol: the currency
3) the government to not bail us out via money printing/debasement
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