Crypto Mumbles – Telegram
Crypto Mumbles
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things I mumble to myself about crypto

basically my transparent crypto diary

education, analysis, and trades 🙂

Twitter: https://twitter.com/dpycm
Medium: https://medium.com/@dpycm
Lifemax (non-crypto): t.me/humblespace
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the difference between the Internet and Blockchain:

Internet has a "thin" protocol, "fat" application

Blockchain has "fat" protocol, "thin" applications

with the internet, you'll want to invest in the applications

but with blockchain, you'll want to invest in the protocols as they capture the most value

tldr; protocol > application

amazing read

https://www.usv.com/writing/2016/08/fat-protocols/

#reads fat protocol
insightful thread

crypto has mostly decoupled from BTC this cycle, finally getting validation for their use cases

as crypto is receiving adoption, devs have to figure out ways to make crypto more accessible with simple UX and tools, lowering the barrier to entry into the space

the inertia needed to start in crypto can be really high with the amount of things to take note of (e.g. gas fees, slippage, networks, etc.)

that is when the simpler the UX or usability, the better the position of a project

https://twitter.com/AriDavidPaul/status/1436330902250999812?s=20

#reads #newbie
CM Huat Pals
heads up here, I want you to keep this in the back of your mind as a note given the recent dips and retails being unfazed, we will likely go deeper because a shakeout isn't a shakeout until retails start selling amiright? if this distribution pattern plays…
BTC is now trading in the 52k region

it's bounce or die here imo

given the Omicron + tapering + Evergrande fud,

we've reached the expected pessimistic zone and might even temporarily break lower with a further fud

if there's an entry for dips then this would be your best bet
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at this point I'm treading carefully

it's best to stick to high conviction plays and avoid all others

I'm looking to focus my basket and portfolio instead while deploying usdt rationally

I want to remain objective here

on-chain metrics still point to a bull market

charts aren't as beautiful so I have some reservations in the short term

this is a clear breakdown and not an optimal scenario for BTC and it makes no sense to blindly keep calling a bull market in the short term because that's just twisting and warping reality to fit your bias

instead of blindly calling moon or pump to give hopium, I will just share my thoughts and mumbles

you can make your own informed decision as you should from here

tldr; I am still buying my high conviction coins, neutral short term, bullish mid - long term

p.s. it's gonna take awhile for recovery
this actually makes sense

the stalling of the eoy bull market could possibly be due to one final hammer from China waiting to occur (what's happening right now)

the BTC sell off was SPOT driven, not caused by derivatives

“In fact, 1,500 BTC alone was sold in less than a minute at the time of the drop.”

very possibly China whales are selling their btc to avoid the delayed enforcement

after which (OI and leverage flushing) we start heading up

thus, the question now would be

are they done yet?

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/bitcoin-drops-9k-hour-053813411.html

https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/1466421539419705360?s=20
Forwarded from CM Huat Pals
the tone has been set for december, but doesn't mean it can't change

likely to be a slow month of ranging which can be rather painful

just proposing some possible fractals moving forward

area of interest 40 to 44k

december will be another month where patience is tested
Forwarded from CM Huat Pals
we still see a bullish net position change on all exchanges on BTC
Forwarded from CM Huat Pals
ETH as well
CM Huat Pals
we still see a bullish net position change on all exchanges on BTC
you can consider dca-ing into this idea

because price is a lagging indicator to on chain metrics
consider trimming some positions bought in the dip

more likely to u-turn after tapping the area we're at now (51k)

if not then a tap on 54k

a clean reclaim and hold of 54k will make me bullish again
quick general market update

bulls:
BTC needs to reclaim 54k and pray for a squeeze up to resume the bullish case. However, profit taking will be quick on the move up to 54k (traders buying the dip and selling the bounce)

bears:
bears will look to short after trapping longs in the area of 53-54k to capture the most value in the supply from profit taking. bears want the 53-54k area as much as the bulls want it as well. hence, the relief bounce here.

however, bears have the edge here from F&G index and retails panicking

overall market sentiment:
imo still bearish. fud keeps piling with not much significant bullish news. Omicron, tapering, china enforcement, evergrande.

tldr; a move down is more likely as of now
some of you might already know that this talk is happening later today

"The hearing will be led by Waters (D-CA), the Chairwoman of the House Committee on Financial Services. (The hearing’s full noscript is “Digital Assets and the Future of Finance: Understanding the Challenges and Benefits of Financial Innovation in the United States.”) Waters’ committee has called six witnesses to the hearing, who are executives for major cryptocurrency companies and exchanges including Coinbase, Circle and FTX."

overall I'm bearish on this talk because many altcoins fall within the definition of a security -> regulation will take place

anyway, no news = good news, and good news.. will be good news

regardless, a fall in price movement is expected so i don't think we'll be too shocked if anything

https://time.com/6126268/cryptocurrency-ceos-congress-hearing/
not really into NFTs but I'm definitely trying out this one for sure

https://twitter.com/pepsi/status/1468946201718501376?s=20