at this point I'm treading carefully

it's best to stick to high conviction plays and avoid all others

I'm looking to focus my basket and portfolio instead while deploying usdt rationally

I want to remain objective here

on-chain metrics still point to a bull market

charts aren't as beautiful so I have some reservations in the short term

this is a clear breakdown and not an optimal scenario for BTC and it makes no sense to blindly keep calling a bull market in the short term because that's just twisting and warping reality to fit your bias

instead of blindly calling moon or pump to give hopium, I will just share my thoughts and mumbles

you can make your own informed decision as you should from here

tldr; I am still buying my high conviction coins, neutral short term, bullish mid - long term

p.s. it's gonna take awhile for recovery

I guess it was a sign to exit at least some ^

hence the importance of scaling out and never timing the top !!

this actually makes sense

the stalling of the eoy bull market could possibly be due to one final hammer from China waiting to occur (what's happening right now)

the BTC sell off was SPOT driven, not caused by derivatives

“In fact, 1,500 BTC alone was sold in less than a minute at the time of the drop.”

very possibly China whales are selling their btc to avoid the delayed enforcement

after which (OI and leverage flushing) we start heading up

thus, the question now would be

are they done yet?

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/bitcoin-drops-9k-hour-053813411.html

https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/1466421539419705360?s=20

some hindsight on-chain metrics before the crash

surge in premium index showing buying pressure on exchanges

this time it's different from the May crash 👌🏻

https://cryptopotato.com/3-on-chain-signs-that-flashed-shortly-before-bitcoins-16k-daily-crash/

the tone has been set for december, but doesn't mean it can't change

likely to be a slow month of ranging which can be rather painful

just proposing some possible fractals moving forward

area of interest 40 to 44k

december will be another month where patience is tested

we still see a bullish net position change on all exchanges on BTC

ETH as well

you can consider dca-ing into this idea

because price is a lagging indicator to on chain metrics

consider trimming some positions bought in the dip

more likely to u-turn after tapping the area we're at now (51k)

if not then a tap on 54k

a clean reclaim and hold of 54k will make me bullish again

quick general market update

bulls:
BTC needs to reclaim 54k and pray for a squeeze up to resume the bullish case. However, profit taking will be quick on the move up to 54k (traders buying the dip and selling the bounce)

bears:
bears will look to short after trapping longs in the area of 53-54k to capture the most value in the supply from profit taking. bears want the 53-54k area as much as the bulls want it as well. hence, the relief bounce here.

however, bears have the edge here from F&G index and retails panicking

overall market sentiment:
imo still bearish. fud keeps piling with not much significant bullish news. Omicron, tapering, china enforcement, evergrande.

tldr; a move down is more likely as of now

yes thank you

finally something that makes sense

https://fortune.com/2021/12/06/luna-coin-top-ten-crypto-dogecoin-shiba-inu-avalanche-ethereum/

some of you might already know that this talk is happening later today

"The hearing will be led by Waters (D-CA), the Chairwoman of the House Committee on Financial Services. (The hearing’s full noscript is “Digital Assets and the Future of Finance: Understanding the Challenges and Benefits of Financial Innovation in the United States.”) Waters’ committee has called six witnesses to the hearing, who are executives for major cryptocurrency companies and exchanges including Coinbase, Circle and FTX."

overall I'm bearish on this talk because many altcoins fall within the definition of a security -> regulation will take place

anyway, no news = good news, and good news.. will be good news

regardless, a fall in price movement is expected so i don't think we'll be too shocked if anything

https://time.com/6126268/cryptocurrency-ceos-congress-hearing/

nothing much

so that's good!

https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1468690362030080003?s=20

not really into NFTs but I'm definitely trying out this one for sure

https://twitter.com/pepsi/status/1468946201718501376?s=20

1am SG time

all the best !

https://twitter.com/pepsi/status/1469037120048312323?s=20

stablecoins are on the rise

mostly from usdc and usdt

-> money is entering the market

the coming bear market (should there be one) will be an interesting one

https://www.ft.com/content/4f8044bf-8f0f-46b4-9fb7-6d0eba723017

I love this article (~15min read)

incredibly insightful

it is unlikely for eth to be both the best smart contract protocol and a monetary instrument

eth being deflationary is actually harmful in the long run with it's actual goal of being a decentralised computer in mind

inevitable that crypto with real world use cases will eventually be worth more than bitcoin if we are pursuing the currency adoption

"Bad money is spent, e.g. USD and other fiats; good money is hoarded, e.g. Bitcoin. This is Gresham’s law. However, while hoarding gold does not diminish its value, in extremis hoarding Bitcoin in the future without using it in any fashion will destroy the economics of the network which gives Bitcoin its value — because after block rewards end, miners will only be paid in transaction fees, and if there are no transactions, there are no fees, and no incentive for miners to maintain the network."
-> btc should be spent and not hoarded tightly

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated, but as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” - Chuck Prince, former head of Citigroup

https://cryptohayes.medium.com/fear-is-the-mind-killer-f838d9a0d1c1

#reads #newbie

goodbye fiat

inflation @ 4-decade high

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/12/10/us-inflation-rate-surges-to-68-in-november-a-4-decade-high-bitcoin-jumps/

also,

btc did a scam pump likely due to the inflation news

unsustainable

anything in between 54k and 44k is the chop zone so becareful out there

i'll be observing and waiting for my areas of interest @ 54k or 44k