reasons why I'm not buying dips:

it's easy to fall into the usual crypto "BTFD" or get pressured by CT or cryptoheads buying every dip

but unless you are gunning for the long run (10-20years) it doesn't make sense to buy every single dip esp when the dip dips further (iykyk)

macro wise it's honestly not looking v good wrt i/r hikes, paper on cbdc, russia's hands, etc.

many investors are going risk off because the moment crypto got institutionalised and adopted, it was added to the end of the spectrum as 'high beta tech stocks'

why opt for risky investments when i can get safer investments with decent returns too?

yes, I believe crypto will decouple from equities eventually but not in the near future imo so for now we'll just have to suck thumb when equity market takes a hit

i'd rather buy back in late upon confirmation and lose some potential % gains than buying every dip and suffering the consequences of blindly calling "BUY THE DIP" (im still dca-ing my long term bags these are good prices)

hence, I'm all hands for now

best to wait for the next fomc meeting on 25/1 before the next action

as mentioned I only bought dips in some specific projects as I want to build my exposure + I believe these projects will run in due time

tldr; don't blindly buy dips if you're not in it for the long run

p.s. watch the podcast to understand what issues the fed is facing to understand the macro economy

here: https://news.1rj.ru/str/cryptomumbles/2278

there is no bear market in crypto

you're probably just looking in the wrong place

https://twitter.com/tztokchad/status/1485415191944830981?s=20

if you really wish to make money in crypto

you need to educate yourself about the space and protocols etc.

if you're going to try follow influencers and chase meta after it's already running up (rule of thumb: if it's on tiktok then thats a top signal) then ngmi

educate yourself and make high conviction bets (while risk managing) and HODL until the thesis changes

it might take months or years to see fruition but that's where you accumulate when everyone else is like "oh bear market im out no money to be made anymore" (lazy mindset)

there are SO many possibilities to earn in crypto even in bear markets (more than equities) so it really depends on how much you want it

or you prefer letting your bank pay you 2% APYs (idek if they pay that high anymore) that's fine too (not referring to your 6-months liquidity)

just sick of people saying they want to make money in crypto but can't be bothered to educate themselves about the space

or if they expect to become a millionaire overnight by apeing their banks (tbh it's better if you go to a casino)

work hard! CM will be here sharing and growing w you too

and one day I'll see y'all at the top

#wagmi

(this isn't directed to anyone specifically, but if the shoe fits then-)

alright then-

source

CM's new discord!

why the new platform?
- sub-channels! (defi, nft, trading, etc.)
- neater compartmentalization (reads, news, updates, etc.)
- discussion chats on different topics
- assigning of roles

I'll be running both platforms so no worries as I know telegram is still the most convenient for updates

https://discord.gg/Zd7JftdDWD

see y'all there!

Anchor Protocol on the Terra network

consider putting some spare funds in here

20% APY on your UST

https://app.anchorprotocol.com/earn

crypto surging while equities imploding??

https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1485669205097783304?s=20

Grayscale's assets under consideration

some names include FTM, ATOM, DOT, LUNA, AR, and more

https://grayscale.com/assets-under-consideration-and-current-products/?utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_term=product&utm_content=6232768218&utm_campaign=assets%20under%20exploration&linkId=149405992&s=09

congrats $ADA holders HAHAHAHA

https://twitter.com/CryptoWizardd/status/1485848071418396674?s=20

BTC update it's been awhile

will play this similarly to how I played June - July period

no need to over complicate things really

don't get chopped mid range

still highly dependent on what the Fed says in a few hours

Great thread on what to expect - source

I simply compiled the tweets below for easier reference (do refer to the actual tweet for pictures and charts)

"Last week, market participants positioned themselves for the worst ahead of this week's FOMC meeting (and no doubt that the unrest in Russia-Ukraine also played a part!)

The question for me this week is 'when do those positions unwind?' to play a relief bounce in risk assets.

Expect the Fed not to hike this month and instead to signal that they will do so at the March 15-16 meeting.

The market has priced in a 94.4% probability that rates remain unchanged this month. If this holds true, I'd expect #BTC and other risk-sensitive assets to bounce...

But at the same time, we must also be aware of the risks that the market's pricing in of a 'no rate hike' scenario is incorrect and that the Fed DO hike this month.

That would be a bearish scenario for risk assets, equities would sell-off sharply and take crypto with it

Although a scenario where the Fed hike this month is extremely unlikely (5.6% probability) it is important to be aware that the market has not priced this in

In the case of a hike this month, the reaction would be quite violent and risk appetite would be suppressed even more

The other scenario that's not yet been accounted for by the market in its pricing is a 'double' hike, a scenario where the Fed hike by 50bps in March instead of 25bps.

Currently there is an 86.7% probability that the Fed hike by 25bps in March and only 2.7% for a 50bps hike.

I'm mentioning these potential scenarios as I think that the 'forward guidance' that the Fed provide on Wednesday will impact the market the most and will force market participants to either:

A) unwind protective positions
B) further protect themselves for lower risk appetite

'Forward guidance' refers to the communications from the Fed with regard to future course on monetary policy.

So expect the speech from Powell to move the market on Wednesday. Another potential bearish risk scenario would be signalling an earlier end to QE and/or start to QT

Given how equities have sold off sharply and the on-going conflict in Russia/Ukraine, I find it hard to see a 'hawkish' Fed at this week's meeting.

I believe that they are more likely to be passive at the meeting and signal that March will see the first 25bps hike for now.

If this is the case on Wednesday, I'd expect a relief bounce in risk sensitive assets (equities, crypto etc.) & unwinding of the protective positioning from last week.

Follow through on a bounce will be tough to come by though, for me this is a 'buy the news' type play

There's no doubt that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is impacting negatively upon risk appetite this week and last.

It'll be important to continue to monitor any developments there. It's the fear of the unknown that impacts markets the most.

Couple this conflict with the 'Executive Order' on digital assets set to be released by the Biden administration as early as February - and you can see why volatility is ramping higher into the coming weeks

Also, be aware of US earnings reports set to come through this week! These can have a significant impact on equity indexes (à la Netflix earnings last week)

Microsoft, Telsa, Apple all set to release results this week = more volatility

Be safe!"

simply put

no rate hike is expected, consensus is still on rate hike in March (priced in)

two base scenarios:
1) Risk assets (equities and alternatives) bounce when Fed does not impose rate hikes and instead signals for one in March (94.4%)
2) Fed imposes rate hike earlier/higher %, reversal to drawdown of assets - risk off and market exits (5.6%)

possible scenario:
3) Fed delays raising rates until later in the year (pampitup)
4) Fed signals more than four rate hikes this year but no immediate hike - risk off

do have plans on managing your portfolio, ready for either scenarios

inspired post from my cryptochad buddy

wanna run an investment club w your friends?

you can create an investment fund in form of a DAO w any wallet on Syndicate

p interesting

https://syndicate.mirror.xyz/4p6a0nKpBYMSxoAfN6KpjcUwJSD2t68Dq7zgoliB4pk

BTC max pain $42k, put/call ratio: 0.51, notional value of $2b
ETH max pain $3.1k, put/call ratio: 0.53, notional value of $1.05b

Expiry: 28 Jan, 8am UTC

source

+ 50% on DPX and rDPX

cheers