CM's new discord!

why the new platform?
- sub-channels! (defi, nft, trading, etc.)
- neater compartmentalization (reads, news, updates, etc.)
- discussion chats on different topics
- assigning of roles

I'll be running both platforms so no worries as I know telegram is still the most convenient for updates

https://discord.gg/Zd7JftdDWD

see y'all there!

Anchor Protocol on the Terra network

consider putting some spare funds in here

20% APY on your UST

https://app.anchorprotocol.com/earn

crypto surging while equities imploding??

https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1485669205097783304?s=20

Grayscale's assets under consideration

some names include FTM, ATOM, DOT, LUNA, AR, and more

https://grayscale.com/assets-under-consideration-and-current-products/?utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_term=product&utm_content=6232768218&utm_campaign=assets%20under%20exploration&linkId=149405992&s=09

congrats $ADA holders HAHAHAHA

https://twitter.com/CryptoWizardd/status/1485848071418396674?s=20

BTC update it's been awhile

will play this similarly to how I played June - July period

no need to over complicate things really

don't get chopped mid range

still highly dependent on what the Fed says in a few hours

Great thread on what to expect - source

I simply compiled the tweets below for easier reference (do refer to the actual tweet for pictures and charts)

"Last week, market participants positioned themselves for the worst ahead of this week's FOMC meeting (and no doubt that the unrest in Russia-Ukraine also played a part!)

The question for me this week is 'when do those positions unwind?' to play a relief bounce in risk assets.

Expect the Fed not to hike this month and instead to signal that they will do so at the March 15-16 meeting.

The market has priced in a 94.4% probability that rates remain unchanged this month. If this holds true, I'd expect #BTC and other risk-sensitive assets to bounce...

But at the same time, we must also be aware of the risks that the market's pricing in of a 'no rate hike' scenario is incorrect and that the Fed DO hike this month.

That would be a bearish scenario for risk assets, equities would sell-off sharply and take crypto with it

Although a scenario where the Fed hike this month is extremely unlikely (5.6% probability) it is important to be aware that the market has not priced this in

In the case of a hike this month, the reaction would be quite violent and risk appetite would be suppressed even more

The other scenario that's not yet been accounted for by the market in its pricing is a 'double' hike, a scenario where the Fed hike by 50bps in March instead of 25bps.

Currently there is an 86.7% probability that the Fed hike by 25bps in March and only 2.7% for a 50bps hike.

I'm mentioning these potential scenarios as I think that the 'forward guidance' that the Fed provide on Wednesday will impact the market the most and will force market participants to either:

A) unwind protective positions
B) further protect themselves for lower risk appetite

'Forward guidance' refers to the communications from the Fed with regard to future course on monetary policy.

So expect the speech from Powell to move the market on Wednesday. Another potential bearish risk scenario would be signalling an earlier end to QE and/or start to QT

Given how equities have sold off sharply and the on-going conflict in Russia/Ukraine, I find it hard to see a 'hawkish' Fed at this week's meeting.

I believe that they are more likely to be passive at the meeting and signal that March will see the first 25bps hike for now.

If this is the case on Wednesday, I'd expect a relief bounce in risk sensitive assets (equities, crypto etc.) & unwinding of the protective positioning from last week.

Follow through on a bounce will be tough to come by though, for me this is a 'buy the news' type play

There's no doubt that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is impacting negatively upon risk appetite this week and last.

It'll be important to continue to monitor any developments there. It's the fear of the unknown that impacts markets the most.

Couple this conflict with the 'Executive Order' on digital assets set to be released by the Biden administration as early as February - and you can see why volatility is ramping higher into the coming weeks

Also, be aware of US earnings reports set to come through this week! These can have a significant impact on equity indexes (à la Netflix earnings last week)

Microsoft, Telsa, Apple all set to release results this week = more volatility

Be safe!"

simply put

no rate hike is expected, consensus is still on rate hike in March (priced in)

two base scenarios:
1) Risk assets (equities and alternatives) bounce when Fed does not impose rate hikes and instead signals for one in March (94.4%)
2) Fed imposes rate hike earlier/higher %, reversal to drawdown of assets - risk off and market exits (5.6%)

possible scenario:
3) Fed delays raising rates until later in the year (pampitup)
4) Fed signals more than four rate hikes this year but no immediate hike - risk off

do have plans on managing your portfolio, ready for either scenarios

inspired post from my cryptochad buddy

wanna run an investment club w your friends?

you can create an investment fund in form of a DAO w any wallet on Syndicate

p interesting

https://syndicate.mirror.xyz/4p6a0nKpBYMSxoAfN6KpjcUwJSD2t68Dq7zgoliB4pk

BTC max pain $42k, put/call ratio: 0.51, notional value of $2b
ETH max pain $3.1k, put/call ratio: 0.53, notional value of $1.05b

Expiry: 28 Jan, 8am UTC

source

+ 50% on DPX and rDPX

cheers

what this means:

basically base scenario 1 happened (no rate hikes and plans to hike in march)

so we're expecting a bounce in the markets

JPow is unsure of the steps ahead himself

a lot of uncertainty in the conference

we're good temporarily but best be on your toes

up move til march isn't guaranteed