90-day best performers among the largest coins :

$RLB : +380%
$PRIME : +111%
$MKR : +96%
$MC : +78%
$KAS : +75%
$RUNE : +74%
$TON : +56%
$AKT : +43%

Top signal : when a lot of new coins launch with low float and an outrageously high FDV in the mega-hot new trendy crypto category.

FDV at top for a few gaming/metaverse projects that were launched near the end of 2021 :

$BLOK : $34bn
$YGG : $11bn
$ATLAS : $9bn
$THG : $8bn
$MC : $7bn
$POLIS : $6bn
$SIDUS : $5.4bn
$GAFI : $4.8bn
$CWAR : $4.6bn
$GODS : $4.2bn
$DAR : $3.6bn
$MBS : $2.5bn
$AURY : $2.2bn
$GGG : $1.6bn

A few coins with catalysts (and potential trades) :

$LINK : SmartCon conference Oct 2-3
$ATOM : Cosmoverse conf Oct 2-4
$RDNT : mainnet deployment
$MC : $BEAM rebranding/migration
$ICE : $WAGMI migration (ongoing)

Conferences are usually sell the news events but 2 caveats :
- if the coin doesn't pump before the conference, there's less reason to short it (ATOM)
- if people are bullish for other reasons than the conference, it can be dangerous to short too (LINK)

Other trades to look at :

- $MKR outperforming is something we haven't seen for a long time. Is DegenSpartan curse not effective anymore or can we expect MKRETH to top soon ? A pair trade versus MKR could be a good idea, but I am just looking at it for the moment.

- I am still short $WLD, currently underwater but looking to add if it goes higher. It's the midcurve trade but it has worked well for me on APT, SUI and WLD, and I am much more comfortable on the short side of these coins.

Recap of the week + good tweets :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-september-614

New article : a crypto data dump

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/crypto-data-dump-october-2023-edition

Speedrun the narratives of 2023 :

BONK + SOL revival
AI
LSD
Metaverse
OP and its eco
Arbi szn
APT
NFTfi
ZK
Perp DEX
CANTO
Chinese coins
BTCfi
PEPE
Post-PEPE memecoins
Ordinals
LSTfi
Gamblefi
TG bots
Hpos10i and deriv
BALD
Friendtech
Cartel pumps

Rotation game baby

Recap of the week + good tweets :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-october-6

Except if you have very high conviction for some reason, I would recommend avoiding these coins :

The ones that have had one bull cycle and have been making new lows in 2023 compared to their 2022 bottom.

You can find in this list :

$APE $CAKE $ALGO $GMT $CHZ $FLOW $EOS $EGLD $AXS $SAND $ZEC $THETA $ICP $NEAR $DOT $GALA

(APE and GMT did not have a proper bull run, so maybe they could have a second life at some point, especially APE, but I am not sure about it)

Recap of the week + good tweets :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-october-13

Burj Khalifa on the BTC chart after spot BTC ETF approval fake news

The good thing about it is that it gives you a few hints about what will happen during the first few minutes when the real news will hit

SOLETH is close to its ATH of the year

Good time to rebalance if you are afraid of the FTX liquidators selling their liquid SOL

I might do this partially with my $SOL bag but I am a bit conflicted :

SOL has showed a lot of strength lately and there is 0 certainty about the way Galaxy will sell FTX SOL tokens.

We have 0 idea about when they will exactly start or how long it will take... $SOL might to $30 before they start selling ?

I don't understand why you would short $BTC if you are bearish on the market or expect a dump

BTC almost always outperforms on the way down and in the current environment it even outperforms on the way up

My favorite target for shorts are high FDV altcoins that are either overvalued zombies (imo) or have low float

$ADA
$XLM
$WLD
$APT
$DOT
$XRP
$SUI

Paired with a BTC long

Narratives of the week article is out !

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-october-20

I asked my tradfi friends about $BTC and the ETF.

Here are the answers :

"I think that when you say the word bitcoin in mainstream finance, people systematically expect you to make a joke or satirical remark."

"I just took the opportunity [of this pump] to liquidate all my positions, in the green."

"I've got the impression that BTC has fallen by the wayside. We're hearing less about it... With this big move, maybe it'll come back on the table..."

We are still very early. So the plan to dump on them at the top remains unchanged. Hopefully !

Recap of the week + good tweets :

So many coins pumped this week ! 🔥

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-october-29

I agree with the pengu.

In my article about positioning, I stated that $PEPE and $BITCOIN were my main memecoin bags and the ones I had the most conviction in. So I have been happy to see them rip with $BTC.

Three new main characters have been leading the current memecoin run too : $JOE $SPX and $шайлушай (the real smurf cat)

I think that, among these three, $JOE is the most likely to have staying power.

$SPX is like the $MOG of the on-chain summer : same schizo vibe as $BITCOIN, which implies 1/ that it competes in a category where there are competitors and 2/ that it has ceiling which is defined by $BITCOIN.

As for the smurf cat, maybe I just don’t understand the meme enough, but I have a hard time seeing this one become and remain a major memecoin. Even the ticker is a handicap because most people can’t type it.

On the contrary, $JOE is easy to grasp, not schizo, unique (no competitor), and funny.

The AI basket started to sell the news one week before the news (=OpenAI conference Nov 6)

Too much frontrunning ?

If you missed out on $SOL

Let me tell you one thing

Even most of the people that caught the long are not fully satisfied neither

They regret not putting enough size despite their high conviction, or cutting too soon

$SOL is my biggest altcoin bag behind $ETH and $BTC and yet I am still frustrated it is not larger, and frustrated that I rotated around 30% of my bag into ETH after the first half of the recent pump

The thing is

There is always another trade

$SOL is up a 100%, so what ? So many other altcoins will pull multiples in a bull run

Don't get angry because you missed out on one