I don't understand why you would short $BTC if you are bearish on the market or expect a dump

BTC almost always outperforms on the way down and in the current environment it even outperforms on the way up

My favorite target for shorts are high FDV altcoins that are either overvalued zombies (imo) or have low float

$ADA
$XLM
$WLD
$APT
$DOT
$XRP
$SUI

Paired with a BTC long

Narratives of the week article is out !

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-october-20

I asked my tradfi friends about $BTC and the ETF.

Here are the answers :

"I think that when you say the word bitcoin in mainstream finance, people systematically expect you to make a joke or satirical remark."

"I just took the opportunity [of this pump] to liquidate all my positions, in the green."

"I've got the impression that BTC has fallen by the wayside. We're hearing less about it... With this big move, maybe it'll come back on the table..."

We are still very early. So the plan to dump on them at the top remains unchanged. Hopefully !

Recap of the week + good tweets :

So many coins pumped this week ! 🔥

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-october-29

I agree with the pengu.

In my article about positioning, I stated that $PEPE and $BITCOIN were my main memecoin bags and the ones I had the most conviction in. So I have been happy to see them rip with $BTC.

Three new main characters have been leading the current memecoin run too : $JOE $SPX and $шайлушай (the real smurf cat)

I think that, among these three, $JOE is the most likely to have staying power.

$SPX is like the $MOG of the on-chain summer : same schizo vibe as $BITCOIN, which implies 1/ that it competes in a category where there are competitors and 2/ that it has ceiling which is defined by $BITCOIN.

As for the smurf cat, maybe I just don’t understand the meme enough, but I have a hard time seeing this one become and remain a major memecoin. Even the ticker is a handicap because most people can’t type it.

On the contrary, $JOE is easy to grasp, not schizo, unique (no competitor), and funny.

The AI basket started to sell the news one week before the news (=OpenAI conference Nov 6)

Too much frontrunning ?

If you missed out on $SOL

Let me tell you one thing

Even most of the people that caught the long are not fully satisfied neither

They regret not putting enough size despite their high conviction, or cutting too soon

$SOL is my biggest altcoin bag behind $ETH and $BTC and yet I am still frustrated it is not larger, and frustrated that I rotated around 30% of my bag into ETH after the first half of the recent pump

The thing is

There is always another trade

$SOL is up a 100%, so what ? So many other altcoins will pull multiples in a bull run

Don't get angry because you missed out on one

New article and article format : October recap ! Main events, narratives, best-performers, and coins to watch

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/october-recap-narratives-best-performers

Just a reminder :
When you see PnL cards with gains in %, and high leverage

They don’t mean anything

You can take a "100X leverage trade" on a tiny amount with unified collateral and it would be the exact same as taking a 1x long on 100X the size

And obviously these % gains give you zero information about the real risk that has been taken, which corresponds to the sizing of the pos

I am not saying this to shit on people that post %PnL cards, I could do that too

But just don’t start believing that you can take over-leveraged trades as a gamble with positive EV

And more generally don't get psyopsed into thinking that everybody is winning but you

People only share their winning trades

The day before Arbitrum announced its token launch, there was a spike in volume and in "yes" bets on the Polymarket "$ARB launch by March 31st" market.

Some traders speculated it was insiders, and they were probably right.

There’s a similar spike on Polymarket today about LayerZero.

It might be insiders, or it might only be people speculating on this SSL certificate thing.

If my calculations are correct, Galaxy already sent (and likely sold ?) 3.5M $SOL tokens to exchanges.

And 3.5M liquid $SOL remain in the same wallet.

I don't know exactly how many liquid tokens remain in other FTX wallets, but iirc there were about 20M tokens to sell.

Long $ARB / short $OP chart

The "Arbitrum incentives" effect

Recap of the week + good tweets :

You know that the market is hot when you have an endless list of things to write about the moves and narratives of the week.

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-november-5

Current narratives :

- $BTC consolidates around $35K and lets a tiny bit of room for $ETH to catch some attention ($1900 reached today for 1st time since July)

- $SOL remained a top-performer (+30%) despite Galaxy selling SOL tokens.

- $RUNE (+35%) and $INJ (+20%) are two other "winners that keep winning".

- Ongoing rotation into $ARB ? It is up +20% this week while Arbitrum-native tokens shine : $GRAIL $DMT $WINR $RDNT => Arb incentives catalyst

- The other ETH-adjacent coins performed well too : $LDO (+11%), $OP (+9%), $MATIC (+8%)

- Some gaming coins are showing strength : $ILV $SFUND $IMX

- Cosmos ecosystem : $ATOM outperforms (+15% this week, rare event) and a few Cosmos coins had good gains too => $OSMO $JUNO $KUJI $EVMOS

Other noticeable pumps :

- $CAKE is up +80% in a revenge comeback (Binance ecosystem revival ?)
- $NEAR and $XRP are both outperforming before their conference
- $EGLD up +40% in a day thanks to Koreans
- $KAS and $RLB, two of top-performers of 2023, are in price discovery

Now we're up to 4.25M $SOL sent to exchanges.

OpenAI DevDay today

BTC is letting much room for alts to get attention

Maybe too much

At some point it will have to steal the spotlight again if we want some form of sustained pump for the whole market

List of coins that are either in price discovery or very close to :

$KAS
$KUJI
$ATOR
$TAO
$PAAL
$RLB
$DUBBZ
$HILO

Most of my portfolio is in long-term spot positions that I don't trade actively.

And I trade perps for short/medium-term. Recent and ongoing strategy is as follows :

- Big $BTC long at least until the ETF approval

- Long winners / strong coins : $SOL $INJ $LINK $RUNE $PEPE [the list can change depending on PA]

- Long coins based on narratives/short-term strength : $BLUR (NFT volume has bottomed) $YGG (gaming is hot + conference EOM) $ARB (L2 rotation from SOL + STIP) [fast-changing and not exhaustive list]

- Event-driven shorts as hedge that could end up being profitable : e.g. $XRP and $NEAR as sell the news for their conference

- Short weak + over-valued coins as partial hedge : this can be dangerous and naturally reduces profit when the core bullish thesis is correct

I also have on-chain short-term trades, that are mainly memecoins : just long the winners with good vibes, $JOE for example

Make sure to measure the wicks on your favorite alts to get an idea of where to place bids for the flush scenarios in a trending environment, like what happened yesterday

It's only dangerous if we get a really huge dump in which case your bids will be knife-catching