OpenAI DevDay today

BTC is letting much room for alts to get attention

Maybe too much

At some point it will have to steal the spotlight again if we want some form of sustained pump for the whole market

List of coins that are either in price discovery or very close to :

$KAS
$KUJI
$ATOR
$TAO
$PAAL
$RLB
$DUBBZ
$HILO

Most of my portfolio is in long-term spot positions that I don't trade actively.

And I trade perps for short/medium-term. Recent and ongoing strategy is as follows :

- Big $BTC long at least until the ETF approval

- Long winners / strong coins : $SOL $INJ $LINK $RUNE $PEPE [the list can change depending on PA]

- Long coins based on narratives/short-term strength : $BLUR (NFT volume has bottomed) $YGG (gaming is hot + conference EOM) $ARB (L2 rotation from SOL + STIP) [fast-changing and not exhaustive list]

- Event-driven shorts as hedge that could end up being profitable : e.g. $XRP and $NEAR as sell the news for their conference

- Short weak + over-valued coins as partial hedge : this can be dangerous and naturally reduces profit when the core bullish thesis is correct

I also have on-chain short-term trades, that are mainly memecoins : just long the winners with good vibes, $JOE for example

Make sure to measure the wicks on your favorite alts to get an idea of where to place bids for the flush scenarios in a trending environment, like what happened yesterday

It's only dangerous if we get a really huge dump in which case your bids will be knife-catching

Being an already pumpedooor in a risk-on environment can be extremely painful

Of course there is an element of hindsight bias but look at this

The winning coin basket is following a clear uptrend with almost no drawdown, and that is paired vs $BTC [+120% in USD terms]

The gaming sector has been one of the hottest this week (after having been one of the most devastated during the bear) :

$ILV : +77%
$GALA : +34%
$IMX : +54%
$PYR : +53%
$MC / $BEAM : +55%
$PRIME : +52%
$SFUND : +56%
$UOS : +33%

ZOOM OUT

The more you zoom on the chart, the more likely you are to fuck up and do something stupid

When you try to trade the 1min chart you are sooo likely to lose money

Trade higher timeframes with less leverage

Ride the pumps

Chill

$TIA

Interesting to see that nobody was excited about it at $2.5

Now after almost 2X, everyone and their mother is screaming about it

But the absurdly great r/r was below $2.5 :

$2.5bn FDV for a major L1/L2/rollup when some vaporware L1s like $APT and $SUI trade above $5bn... the downside looked small on TIA

Anyway, this is a good reminder that prices drive narratives

Once $TIA crossed the $3 mark, I saw 10x more tweets about it on the timeline

We are trading attention

Breakout + price discovery for a mid/large cap = a lot of attention

It remains a very good strategy to take longs when these situations happen

New coins are very hot today :

$WLD
$TIA
$MEME
$NTRN
$MAV
$SEI
$CYBER
$ARKM
$BIGTIME

Recap of the week + good tweets :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-november-14

Current narratives :

- ETHBTC finally bounced after the $ETH ETF news

- $SOL remained the fastest horse this week after reaching $64, but might have locally topped. The $BONK Solana memecoin has done 15x in a month too

- Besides SOL, $RUNE and $LINK were 2 of the winner basket coins that have been very strong this week again

- Is $MATIC taking over $SOL ? +35% this week, ETH beta / L2 coin / ZK coin, and underperformed for too long ?

- The new Cosmos+rollup coin $TIA pumped more than 2x this week, leading the market to pump many recent new coins : $WLD, $MEME, $SEI

- The good ol' SOLUNAVAX trio revival : $AVAX (+34% this week), $LUNA (+58%), $LUNC (+20%).

- $SUI and $KAS are two other L1s that performed well this week.

- Gaming remains one of the hottest sectors this week again, with runners such as $ILV (+35%), $IMX (+43%), $PRIME (+47%), $RON (+27%), and $MC (migrating to $BEAM, +80%).

- BTC beta coins are disappointing, except $ORDI (main ordinal coin) that is up +80% this week and 6X in a month

- Memecoin land : $GROK pumped to $150M MC, while most other ones are heavily struggling

- Other noticeable moves : $DYDX, $FTT, $KUJI, $ZRX, $GRAIL

Just a reminder that you can buy coins spot and not have to pay insane funding rates

Example : $BONK

And you don't even have the excuse of high gas fees on Solana

Great episode about crypto trading in general + the Solana thesis specifically :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6k24VoJceYY

One of my theses for holding a significant bag of $LDO is that it's considered as leveraged $ETH (and more than L2 tokens)

The market seems to confirm this

But now we have to see $ETH perform well if we want $LDO to return good gains too...

I wrote a thread about a few trading lessons of the week :

https://twitter.com/thedefivillain/status/1725172295205826762

If you lost money over the last 30 days, take some time to think about what you did wrong.

We've been in easy mode, "up only" kind of environment.

You should at least be profitable when the market is like that.

Think about how you should have traded, so that you will be prepared to extract the most value out of the bull run.

2 clear outperforming categories today :

- AI coins : $AKT $WLD $TAO $AGIX $FET $OCEAN $PAAL $RNDR

- Gaming coins : $IMX $PRIME $ILV $YGG $PYR

During a long time, since the Jan-Feb echo bubble, it has been mainly useless to track the performance of the different coin categories/baskets because most of the best-performers were either a few selected coins with specific catalyst or one single basket at a time getting all the attention.

When the market does not have a lot of juice, it can only focus on very few narratives at a time.

But the hotter the market gets, and the more it is able to offer attention to many narratives/categories at the same time, and rotate between them frenetically.

It is useful to both know :
- what are the current rotations of the market [short-term narratives]
- and which categories have been outperforming over the whole pump [medium-term narratives]

2023 echo bubble main narratives :
- LSD
- L2s + ecosystem coins
- AI
- ZK
- Perp DEX
- China
- BTCfi

Recent ETF-driven pump main narratives :
- AI
- Solana + ecosystem coins
- Gaming
- Strong Cosmos coins

And then of course, in both cases, there are some strong single coins, that don’t necessarily fit into a narrative.

AI is the only category that has been very strong during both of these risk-on periods.

$BONK has been giving me for at least the third (successful) time one of my favorite trading setups :

An explosive coin close to breakout, you can buy it when it's very close to go into price discovery with tight SL for a great R/R

- If it fails to breakout, you take minimal loss
- If it works as intended, the profits are massive

I have also been doing the same thing with $SOL a few days ago.

The risk is that your SL is hit before it pumps, and that is frustrating. To mitigate that risk, you have to keep the distance to the SL wide enough, but then each time the trade does not work, you take losses... that can become meaningful after a few unsuccessful setups. As always, you have to find a right middle-ground, and there is no straight-forward rule for this.

"He who chases two rabbits catches neither"

When the market is this hot, you will feel fomo constantly because so many altcoins are pumping across the board

Calm down

You don't have to catch them all, and most likely your profits will be decreased if you try to do it