If you took a sizable drawdown from your port ATH and it makes you psychologically unable to close positions at significant losses
Decide which amount you absolutely need to have in USD if shit really hits the fan
Sell enough of your positions to make sure you have this amount of cash, and put it away
Trade/invest with the remaining
Another option is to have a mental stop loss on your whole net worth and go flat whenever it is hit
It's not comfortable and you very likely won't sell at an optimal time, but at least if gives you a clear framework for the emergency situations, and it will prevent you from compounding stupid decisions that can make you go to zero
Decide which amount you absolutely need to have in USD if shit really hits the fan
Sell enough of your positions to make sure you have this amount of cash, and put it away
Trade/invest with the remaining
Another option is to have a mental stop loss on your whole net worth and go flat whenever it is hit
It's not comfortable and you very likely won't sell at an optimal time, but at least if gives you a clear framework for the emergency situations, and it will prevent you from compounding stupid decisions that can make you go to zero
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PA looks like there are no more sellers and people realize the short-term bottom is in
But $BTC is already up almost 5K from its bottom
Anyway, we are dependent on the stock market
But $BTC is already up almost 5K from its bottom
Anyway, we are dependent on the stock market
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I'd rather be short than long $HYPE here, I don't think there is any real risk for the platform but this HLP fud will probably remain persistent for a few days/weeks
$HYPE was at $13.5 a few hours ago, then this HL 'insidoor" thing happened and now it's trading at $13 : this dump is not large enough to justify buying the FUD imo
$HYPE was at $13.5 a few hours ago, then this HL 'insidoor" thing happened and now it's trading at $13 : this dump is not large enough to justify buying the FUD imo
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You can see the relative lack of euphoria in altcoins this cycle by looking at the top FDVs reached
This cycle (2024-2025) :
WLD - 117bn
TRUMP - 75bn
SUI - 54bn
TON - 42bn
HYPE - 35bn
Last cycle (2021)
FIL - 372bn
ICP - 249bn
ADA - 139bn
BNB - 119bn
LUNC - 113bn
DOGE - 90bn
DOT - 76bn
FLOW - 57bn
LINK - 51bn
SHIB - 44bn
AXS - 43bn
UNI - 43bn
OHM - 40bn
GALA - 35bn
This cycle (2024-2025) :
WLD - 117bn
TRUMP - 75bn
SUI - 54bn
TON - 42bn
HYPE - 35bn
Last cycle (2021)
FIL - 372bn
ICP - 249bn
ADA - 139bn
BNB - 119bn
LUNC - 113bn
DOGE - 90bn
DOT - 76bn
FLOW - 57bn
LINK - 51bn
SHIB - 44bn
AXS - 43bn
UNI - 43bn
OHM - 40bn
GALA - 35bn
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The 3 risk-on szns/uptrends we've had since 2023 have been related to one specific catalyst each time :
- Nov 23 : fake CoinTelegraph ETF tweet sparks an ETF approval frontrunning
- Jan 24 : massive ETF inflows prove that there is significant demand for BTC
- Nov 24 : US elections and Trump victory
One of the most profitable trades in crypto is to be maximally long right when these catalysts start pushing the market
- Nov 23 : fake CoinTelegraph ETF tweet sparks an ETF approval frontrunning
- Jan 24 : massive ETF inflows prove that there is significant demand for BTC
- Nov 24 : US elections and Trump victory
One of the most profitable trades in crypto is to be maximally long right when these catalysts start pushing the market
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Here are a few altcoin charts to illustrate why a basic 'successive risk-on/risk-off periods' framework is more useful than the 4-year cycle framework
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Usually, the hottest sectors/altcoins of one risk-on crypto season are not the same as the next one, and so the ‘last season’ outperformers are likely to underperform next.
For example, $INJ, $TIA and $SEI have massively under-performed in Nov-Dec 2024, as well as most of the hot AI coins from 2023 (RENDER, FET, AR, AKT, ARKM, WLD did not make new highs in late 24), as well as $STX and ordinals.
It’s also likely that most dino coins that have been strong in late 24 will be underperforming during the next uptrend too.
This is why HBAR, XLM, XRP and ADA are now permanent residents in my basket of hedge shorts.
For example, $INJ, $TIA and $SEI have massively under-performed in Nov-Dec 2024, as well as most of the hot AI coins from 2023 (RENDER, FET, AR, AKT, ARKM, WLD did not make new highs in late 24), as well as $STX and ordinals.
It’s also likely that most dino coins that have been strong in late 24 will be underperforming during the next uptrend too.
This is why HBAR, XLM, XRP and ADA are now permanent residents in my basket of hedge shorts.
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Crypto Narratives
Usually, the hottest sectors/altcoins of one risk-on crypto season are not the same as the next one, and so the ‘last season’ outperformers are likely to underperform next. For example, $INJ, $TIA and $SEI have massively under-performed in Nov-Dec 2024, as…
Very few exceptions to that phenomenon
The rare coins that were hot during the two successive risk-on szns have been :
$SOL $PEPE $DOGE $ONDO $FTM $BONK
Maybe a few more that I forgot (there is no indisputable criteria to gauge this)
The rare coins that were hot during the two successive risk-on szns have been :
$SOL $PEPE $DOGE $ONDO $FTM $BONK
Maybe a few more that I forgot (there is no indisputable criteria to gauge this)
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Great technical discussions about the convertible bond dynamics of Microstrategy :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_T6Wu5d3IY0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_T6Wu5d3IY0
YouTube
$MSTR True North - In the Mind of Richard Byworth with Jeff Walton
🧭 Jeff chats with Richard Byworth’s to get his insights on Bitcoin, Strategy and hedge funds. Topics include Bitcoin yield, fund strategies, convertible bonds, leverage risks, and the future of institutional Bitcoin adoption.
🎛️ As of this recording, 3/12/25…
🎛️ As of this recording, 3/12/25…
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Crypto Narratives
Weekly recap : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-march-14
Recap of the last 10 days in crypto :
- Trump signed the SBR EO on March 6, then the Crypto Summit was a nothingburger on March 7. Moderate news selling on $BTC from $90k to $86k.
- Significant dump on March 9-10 to a BTC low at $77k in a context of a very weak stock market. We are completely reliant on tradfi, and they are having red days one after another.
- The market is truly narrative-less besides that, we are driven by macro / tariff / Trump headlines.
- ETHBTC can't stop dying, it's down to new lows at 0.0224
- $HYPE has been suffering and is down -50% in three weeks. There was FUD about an HL whale trying to exploit HLP
- The AI agent sector has been destroyed (even more).
- Very rare pockets of strength : new coins (IP, LAYER), TIA, random pumps, etc.
- Trump signed the SBR EO on March 6, then the Crypto Summit was a nothingburger on March 7. Moderate news selling on $BTC from $90k to $86k.
- Significant dump on March 9-10 to a BTC low at $77k in a context of a very weak stock market. We are completely reliant on tradfi, and they are having red days one after another.
- The market is truly narrative-less besides that, we are driven by macro / tariff / Trump headlines.
- ETHBTC can't stop dying, it's down to new lows at 0.0224
- $HYPE has been suffering and is down -50% in three weeks. There was FUD about an HL whale trying to exploit HLP
- The AI agent sector has been destroyed (even more).
- Very rare pockets of strength : new coins (IP, LAYER), TIA, random pumps, etc.
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Some people are thinking that the current slow grind up on $BTC looks like a Saylor TWAP : very unlikely.
My guess is that it's almost impossible for Saylor to buy without announcing it beforehand.
He needs to first raise cash to buy BTC.
If he raises cash through ATM (ie selling newly issued MSTR shares), we don't know it until the next Monday, but he stopped using the ATM several weeks ago and made it clear that it was not his priority anymore (also the mNAV premium has compressed a lot so it makes sense not to sell shares).
He could use the ATM on $STRK (the recent $21bn announcement was for this) but as I said previously, the current trading volumes on STRK are immaterial so I don't think he's already doing that.
The last option is to raise cash through a new convertible bond offering, and this is something he HAS to announce before completing it, so he can't be buying BTC prior to a CB announcement.
Good news to see BTC grind up without Saylor being involved !
My guess is that it's almost impossible for Saylor to buy without announcing it beforehand.
He needs to first raise cash to buy BTC.
If he raises cash through ATM (ie selling newly issued MSTR shares), we don't know it until the next Monday, but he stopped using the ATM several weeks ago and made it clear that it was not his priority anymore (also the mNAV premium has compressed a lot so it makes sense not to sell shares).
He could use the ATM on $STRK (the recent $21bn announcement was for this) but as I said previously, the current trading volumes on STRK are immaterial so I don't think he's already doing that.
The last option is to raise cash through a new convertible bond offering, and this is something he HAS to announce before completing it, so he can't be buying BTC prior to a CB announcement.
Good news to see BTC grind up without Saylor being involved !
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DeFiDotApp is a new DeFi app conceived to abstract away all the complexities of having different chains.
I have been invited to join it and they are currently running a points program that will probably lead to an airdrop ?
Here is my referral link if you want to join : https://app.defi.app/join/pIs8j5
I have been invited to join it and they are currently running a points program that will probably lead to an airdrop ?
Here is my referral link if you want to join : https://app.defi.app/join/pIs8j5
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