Santi has very quickly become a huge $SOL bull, it almost shocked me when I listened to this recent podcast episode

I think a lot of VCs have been panicking and feeling underexposed to SOL, which explains both why SOL has been so strong recently, and why it is likely to remain strong

"I am 98% exposed to the Ethereum ecosystem... but what if... what if... it underperforms during the whole cycle and I did not hedge my bet with SOL exposure ?
Let's throw some money into the Solana ecosystem, I don't want to be sidelined !" [not an authentic quote]

To be clear, I don't think $ETH will underperform, but I am just picturing what is very likely to happen in the heads of a few VCs.

I own both ETH and SOL, and more ETH than SOL, but I think that SOLETH should naturally go up.

## November recap ##

Main narratives :

- Crypto gaming : $ILV $IMX $PRIME $BEAM $RON $SUPER $ATLAS $SFUND

- AI coins : $RNDR $AGIX $TAO $FET $OCEAN $OLAS $AKT $CTXC $PAAL

- $SOL and its ecosystem : $BONK $HNT $NEON $SCS $CROWN $SHDW / SOL NFTs (Mad Lads)

- Winner basket : $SOL $INJ $RUNE $LINK $TIA $KAS

- A few Cosmos coins have been very strong : $KUJI $TIA $SEI $RUNE $OSMO $INJ $DYDX

- Ordinal coins acted as BTC beta : $ORDI $SATS $TRAC

- In memecoin land : $GROK went to $170M MC

Main events of November :

- Binance pays a $4bn fine to the DOJ and CZ steps down as CEO

- BlackRock files for an $ETH ETF

- The new L2 "with native yield" Blast launched (a multisig contract) and attracted $600M TVL. $BLUR rips as liquid proxy

- OpenAI drama => AI coins got attention

- A few new coins launched, that all did well : $TIA, $MEME, $PYTH, $FLIP, $VRTX

Most of my portfolio is in spot bags that have been accumulated over the last 12 months

I am also long on perps on many of the best-performers of the last 2 months

Now the goal is mainly to sit on my hands and not f*ck it up, ie not cut my trades too quickly and also not increase the risk while prices go up until an inevitable (short-term) dump

I will try to avoid spending too much time playing short-term rotations because I want to avoid the lowest timeframes

If I have enough motivation, I will also look for smaller coins with high beta (on-chain coins, shitters, coins that are "hard to buy", etc) but I don't really mind missing them
=> If you are grinding to make it, many opportunities are there for you. For example, I am fine with missing a 10x on $CACAO if I get a 2x on $RUNE on perps. Many people like me will be too lazy to go buy these smaller coins with higher upside, but you can catch these to increase your profits in this environment

Good luck everyone, enjoy

Other examples of higher beta that I can think of :

- $ALEX instead of only $STX
- Smaller ordinal coins that are not on CEX, rather than only $ORDI
- Every fkn SOL coin instead of only $SOL and $BONK lol

If a coin :

- is consistently a top-performer
- has a narrative that makes sense
- does not have awful tokenomics

I usually want to be long the coin, even if it has "already pumped".

Because these coins tend to outperform for longer

This is why $ORDI and $BONK have been no-brainers for example, even if I definitely missed the first part of their move up.

Sometimes you really don't have to make things too complicated

Chart of BTC.D, step by step :

1. Oct 16 - Oct 24 : CoinTelegraph intern tweet wakes up everyone to the fact that the $BTC ETF is coming and that they will be under-allocated. BTC pumps and outperforms (alts simply follow the move), BTC.D goes up.

2. Oct 24 - Nov 16 : $BTC slowly moves up in an ascending range, alts catchup and outperform on the way up, BTC.d goes down.

3. Nov 16 - Early Dec : Both $BTC and altcoins are mostly stable

4. Dec 3 - Nov : $BTC pumps and outperforms the market again, BTC.D goes up. [=> same as step 1.]

5. ???
Are we running step 2 again ?
Either we do, and $BTC remains stable while altcoins go up (ie BTC.D down)... or BTC dumps and altcoins probably dump even more (ie BTC.D up).

Useful exercise you should do :

- Take a look at the list of the best performers of the last 30 and 60 days (for the top 300 coins for example)

- For each one, make a list of the reasons for their pump

- Sometimes, you won't find solid and logical explanations, those are too unpredictable pumps, you can ignore them

- But for other coins, you will find a few rational reasons for their performance, and realize that you could have developed the bull thesis for them quite shortly after they first started to move up [and so you could have profited off the pump]
=> These are very good examples to keep in mind, because your goal is to find the next coins that have a similar bull case

AVAXBTC being strong while $BTC goes down

I like to have an index of strong/winner coins among large caps, and until now I mainly had in this basket : $SOL $RUNE $INJ $LINK

$TIA is a new coin, but I think it will be included in that index too

And now I am thinking if $AVAX should join the basket too, especially given its most recent pump is not a laggard effect to $SOL (but it was in October / November)

Main narratives of the whole ETF-driven pump :

- $BTC and Ordinals
- $SOL and its ecosystem
- Basket of strong coins
- Gaming
- AI
- Memecoins
- New coins

Recap of the narratives of the week :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-december-7

Narratives of the past week :

- $BTC green candle : breakout of the $38k resistance and went straight to $44k with BTC.D new yearly top at 55%

- Ordinals pumped massively : 3X for $ORDI in a week. The other BTC beta coin $STX pumped a lot too.

- Memecoins have been hot : $DOGE (+15%) $BONK (+150%) $PEPE (+40%) $SHIB $MEME

- New coins gud : $BIGTIME (+170%) $TIA (+57%) $BEAM $MEME $TAO $SEI $NTRN

- $ETH reached again its local bottom against BTC (0.051) before strongly bouncing today, alongside its beta coins ($OP was the strongest)

- Other noticeable strong moves : $AVAX $CFX $LUNC & Pudgy Penguins in NFTs

List of coins that are either in price discovery or very close to :

$TIA
$JTO
$SHRAP
$BONK
$PRIME
$CROWN
$SEI
$TAO
$PAAL
$KAS
$MEME
$NTRN
$AXL
$INJ
$PYTH
$ORDI

A list of traders you should follow on Twitter :

https://twitter.com/thedefivillain/status/1733072528594043141

Good tip that I heard a few weeks ago in a DonAlt stream :

He said that usually, when a coin climbs into the top 100, you can dump it once it reaches the top 10.

I did not have time to check how true this was, but I wrote down this piece of advice.

It could be useful