These BTC green candles are covered with the blood of the "summer chop" thesis bros

Don't persevere once the thesis is clearly invalidated, especially on a BTC short

It's extremely dangerous to let such a short run without an invalidation

(friendly advice from a bull)

I am not planning on flipping bearish before I see stupid stuff, and this clearly hasn't happened yet

My long $BTC / short alt exposure has been mostly cut

The reason is : I think we're in risk-on szn and many alts should outperform at some point

So it would be a hassle to keep this trade on, and it will be much easier to simply re-enter once things will be clearly overheated

(I still hold some alt shorts, but a more restricted list)

Read this 3-month-old thread to understand the risks if you are shorting alts here + look at the charts to understand how longing could provide a much better r/r

(USEFUL)

https://x.com/thedefivillain/status/1912859984095834416

Make a list of the coins that have this type of chart

Low downside
Decent upside

Generally these are shitty coins that you don't want to hold at all, except during risk-on szn

https://x.com/thedefivillain/status/1899098050141778211

$MSTR bought 4225 BTC ie $472M last week

- $330M from the $MSTR ATM
- $71M from the $STRK ATM
- $55M from the $STRF ATM
- $15M from the $STRD ATM

A light pressure on the common stock, and an increasing amount coming from the preferred stocks

It took some time but here we are

$M

I am still short $HYPER too

You know how it works with these public sales

Once they are about halfway through, people start frontrunning the fact that it's over soon

Which corresponds to a great entry

If you were sidelined, you can probably thank this 80k BTC whale mfer

As long as the largest BTC treasury companies can keep buying

We'll continue going up

MSTR mNAV + price of preferred shares are the indicators to follow

They have dry powder and will have for quite some time

So the 80k $BTC whale :

- Sent 40k BTC to Galaxy Digital

- Still has 40k BTC sitting (=> these have not been moved since the initial consolidation, so maybe he does not plan to sell them yet ?)

Among the 40k BTC sent to Galaxy, they are still holding 24k, but some of these have probably been sold already

So my guess is around 20k BTC have been sold, 20k still to sell, and maybe (?) the last 40k are for another time (not an immediate concern).

The strength and longevity of a crypto treasury company rely entirely on the underlying asset

Following the playbook on $BTC is a great idea, but applying it to altcoins is catastrophically dangerous

But you know what, BTC will not care about these altcoin treasury companies collapsing

The whole idea of a treasury company is to NOT sell the underlying

You can "afford" to do this with $BTC

I don't think you can afford to do that with, say,
$HYPE

Obviously, things will get much more heated in the meantime, and some of these alt treasury companies can offer great trades, but yes, they are likely to end badly

Basically the Saylor "concernooors" have a correct intuition about how these things can collapse in the end, but they don't realize that Saylor and many of the BTC treasury copycats can completely avoid this scenario (and thrive)... thanks to the strength of BTC as an asset.

FARTCOIN seems to be the most cannibalized coin since PUMP launch

Whereas BONK has been extremely strong

I think they should all pump in the end, but maybe I am just a bulltard

What will happen once the whale's BTC will all be sold ?

Will you be correctly positioned ?

$M is still a $4bn FDV coin for no other reason that extremely low float

The most similar coin I can think of might be $ALEO, which pumped to almost $10bn after launch and currently trades at $400M FDV.

But in the meantime, there is always a risk of $M being crimed up, so it's not risk-free...

Longs I like

SPX - looks too good not to break out
MOG - immense strength, among best memes
PUMP - should at least provide one strong pump
BONK - bonk guy needs a 5th offer from heaven
DOOD - IP/brand szn (kek)
DEGEN - vertical pumps during risk-on szn
HYPE - life tends to be easier when you’re long
FARTCOIN - Schelling point meme

MSTR flywheel in full force on $SBET

They raised $400M+ in a week which is pretty impressive.
Saylor "only" raised $300M+ last week through the MSTR ATM.

That's overall bullish for $ETH and alts.

Basically SBET will keep buying ETH as long as the SBET/ETH ratio does not dump.

So far, it's mostly been :

Dino coins (again) : $XLM $HBAR $XRP
Memes : $PENGU $BONK $MOG

Bearish factors :

- Endlessly rising OI
- Summer seasonality
- The BTC whale selling

But overall I remain bullish and I am longing more on the dip

I simply think there are more buyers than sellers

I don't know if that's just a bulltard bias talking, but when I see these upward moves on PENGU, BONK, SEI, XLM, I am inclined to think that altcoins do have more gas in the tank

As someone who has often been on the short-side when alts started pulling multiples, I currently have the feeling that short-sellers haven't had enough pain yet

I think it was a good idea to remain a bull yesterday and it still is